Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Role of ALK gene and mutations in initiation and progression of neuroblastoma

Introduction Le neuroblastome (NB) est la tumeur maligne solide extra-crânienne la plus fréquente chez l'enfant. Sa présentation clinique est très hétérogène, allant d'une tumeur localisée à une atteinte métastatique sévère. Malgré des traitements agressifs, environ 55% des NB de hauts risques sont actuellement résistants aux thérapies. L'espoir réside dans le développement de traitements ciblant les mécanismes moléculaires responsables du développement et de la progression du NB. Le gène Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase (ALK) codant pour un récepteur tyrosine kinase a été particulièrement étudié ces dernières années car il est muté, amplifié ou surexprimé dans une majorité des NBs. Le but de ce projet était d'investiguer le rôle de ALK-wt, ainsi que de ces deux plus fréquentes mutations, ALK- F1174L et ALK-R1245Q, dans l'oncogenèse du NB. Le NB étant originaire des cellules de la crête neurale, nous avons analysé le potentiel oncogénique de ces différentes formes de ALK dans des cellules progénitrices de la crête neurale (NCPC). Méthode Des NCPC de souris (JoMal), possédant un c-MycER inductible pour leur maintien en culture in vitro, ont été transduites par un rétrovirus permettant l'expression stable de ALK-wt, ALK-F1174L et ALK-R1245Q. Des tests in vitro ont d'abord été effectués pour tester le système c-MycER, la stabilité de nos cellules transduites, leur phénotype, leur capacité de croissance et leur tumorigénicité. Les cellules transduites ont ensuite été injectées dans des souris immunosupprimées en sous-cutané, puis en orthotopique, c'est-à-dire dans leur glande surrénale, afin de mesurer leur tumorigénicité in vivo. Résultats La transduction et l'expression stable de ALK n'ont pas modifié le phénotype indifférencié des JoMal, ni de manière significative la capacité de croissance des cellules in vitro en absence d'activation de c-MycER. Par contre, lorsque c-MycER est actif, les cellules porteuses des mutations Fl 174L et R1245Q ont montré une meilleure capacité de prolifération et de formation de colonies, par rapport aux JoMal-ALK-wt et aux cellules contrôles en culture 3D dans de la méthylcellulose et dans un test de formation de neurosphères. In vivo, les souris injectées avec les cellules JoMal-ALK- F1174L en sous-cutané ou dans la glande surrénale ont rapidement développé des tumeurs, suivies par le groupe JoMal-ALK-R1245Q et le groupe JoMal-ALK-wt, alors que les groupes de souris contrôles n'ont présenté aucune tumeur. En orthotopique, nous avons obtenu 5/6 tumeurs ALK-F1174L, 7/7 tumeurs ALK-R1245Q et 6/7 tumeurs ALK-wt. Les tumeurs sous-cutanées ne présentaient pas de différences morphologiques et histologiques entre les différents groupes et montraient une histologie compatible avec un NB. Les tumeurs orthotopiques restent encore à analyser. Conclusion Cette étude a permis de démontrer que les mutations activatrices Fl 174L et R1245Q ont des propriétés tumorigéniques in vitro dans des NCPC et in vivo tandis que la forme sauvage de ALK montre une capacité oncogénique uniquement in vivo. Bien que la caractérisation des tumeurs orthotopiques n'a pas encore été effectuée, l'analyse des tumeurs sous-cutanées nous suggère que l'expression de ALK- wt ou muté est suffisante pour induire la formation de NB à partir des cellules progénitrices de la crête neurale. Le gène ALK semble donc jouer un rôle important dans l'oncogénèse du NB, aussi bien par la présence de mutations activatrices que par sa fréquente surexpression.

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

Aggravation of chronic stress effects on hippocampal neurogenesis and spatial memory in LPA₁ receptor knockout mice.

BACKGROUND The lysophosphatidic acid LPA₁ receptor regulates plasticity and neurogenesis in the adult hippocampus. Here, we studied whether absence of the LPA₁ receptor modulated the detrimental effects of chronic stress on hippocampal neurogenesis and spatial memory. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Male LPA₁-null (NULL) and wild-type (WT) mice were assigned to control or chronic stress conditions (21 days of restraint, 3 h/day). Immunohistochemistry for bromodeoxyuridine and endogenous markers was performed to examine hippocampal cell proliferation, survival, number and maturation of young neurons, hippocampal structure and apoptosis in the hippocampus. Corticosterone levels were measured in another a separate cohort of mice. Finally, the hole-board test assessed spatial reference and working memory. Under control conditions, NULL mice showed reduced cell proliferation, a defective population of young neurons, reduced hippocampal volume and moderate spatial memory deficits. However, the primary result is that chronic stress impaired hippocampal neurogenesis in NULLs more severely than in WT mice in terms of cell proliferation; apoptosis; the number and maturation of young neurons; and both the volume and neuronal density in the granular zone. Only stressed NULLs presented hypocortisolemia. Moreover, a dramatic deficit in spatial reference memory consolidation was observed in chronically stressed NULL mice, which was in contrast to the minor effect observed in stressed WT mice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE These results reveal that the absence of the LPA₁ receptor aggravates the chronic stress-induced impairment to hippocampal neurogenesis and its dependent functions. Thus, modulation of the LPA₁ receptor pathway may be of interest with respect to the treatment of stress-induced hippocampal pathology.

An indirect immunofluorescence antibody test employing whole eggs as the antigen for the diagnosis of abdominal angiostrongyliasis

Abdominal angiostrongyliasis is a potentially fatal zoonotic disease with a broad geographical distribution throughout Central and South America. This study assessed the performance of Angiostrongylus costaricensis eggs as the antigen in an indirect immunofluorescence assay for the determination of parasite-specific IgG and IgG1 antibodies. For prevalence studies, an IgG antibody titre > 16 was identified as the diagnostic threshold with the best performance, providing 93.7% sensitivity and 84.6% specificity. Cross reactivity was evaluated with 65 additional samples from patients with other known parasitic infections. Cross reactivity was observed only in samples from individuals infected with Strongyloides stercoralis. For clinical diagnosis, we recommend the determination of IgG only as a screening test. IgG1 determination may be used to increase the specificity of the results for patients with a positive screening test.