The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

Regras de operação do reservatório de Magos para controlo de cheias

Face à Directiva 2007/60/CE relativa à avaliação e gestão do risco de inundações, ao Decreto-Lei nº 344/2007 que aprova o Regulamento de Segurança de Barragens, ao aumento de áreas urbanizadas e às projecções dos modelos de clima para o fim do século, que apontam para o aumento da frequência e da intensidade da ocorrência de inundações causadas por eventos de precipitação intensa de curta duração, é crucial a definição de regras de operação nos reservatórios com controlo de cheias. O Reservatório de Magos pertence à bacia hidrográfica do rio Tejo, está situado no Concelho de Salvaterra de Magos e tem como usos principais a rega e o controlo de cheias. Este trabalho tem como objecto de estudo a definição das regras de operação (restrição no caudal descarregado) do Reservatório de Magos para controlo de cheias no troço a jusante. São aplicados o modelo hidrológico HEC-HMS 3.1.0, o modelo hidráulico HEC-RAS 3.1.3 e o modelo de simulação de reservatórios HEC-ResSim 3.O para o cálculo do hidrograma de cheia, da zona inundável e para simulação do balanço de água no reservatório, respectivamente. Como resultado são apresentadas as regras de operação (caudal máximo e mínimo a descarregar) do Reservatório de Magos para controlo da zona inundável a jusante, no caso de um evento de cheia. /ABSTRACT: Based on the Directive 2007/60/CE related to the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks, on the Decree-Law n. o 344/2007 which approves the Regulation for Dam Safety, the increased urban areas and to the projections of climate models by the end of the century which is pointing to an increased frequency and intensity of occurrence of floods caused by intense rainfall events of short duration, establishing rules of operation for flood control in reservoirs becomes crucial. The Magos Reservoir belongs to the river Tagus basin, located in the county of Salvaterra de Magos and has as its main uses the irrigation and flood control. This study aims to establish the rules of operation (flow discharged restriction) of the Reservoir of Magos for flood control in the downstream reach. The methodology used in the present work includes the application of the Hydrological model HEC-HMS 3.1.0, the Hydraulic model HEC-RAS 3.1.3 and a reservoir simulation model HEC-ResSim 3.0 to calculate the hydrograph of peak discharge, floodplain zone and simulate reservoir operations, respectively. As a result, the rules of operation (maximum flow and minimum discharge) of Magos Reservoir for flood control in a downstream reach in case of flood event are presented.

Linear and nonlinear thermal instability of Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluid saturated porous media

The present work aims to investigate the influence of different aspects, such as non-standard steady solutions, complex fluid rheologies and non-standard porous-channel geometries, on the stability of a Darcy-Bénard system. In order to do so, both linear and nonlinear stability theories are considered. A linear analysis focuses on studying the dynamics of the single disturbance wave present in the system, while its nonlinear counterpart takes into consideration the interactions among the single modes. The scope of the stability analysis is to obtain information regarding the transition from an equilibrium solution to another one, and also information regarding the transition nature and the emergent solution after the transition. The disturbance governing equations are solved analytically, whenever possible, and numerical by considering different approaches. Among other important results, it is found that a cylinder cross-section does not affect the thermal instability threshold, but just the linear pattern selection for dilatant and pseudoplastic fluid saturated porous media. A new rheological model is proposed as a solution for singular issues involving the power-law model. Also, a generalised class of one parameter basic solutions is proposed as an alternative description of the isoflux Darcy--Bénard problem. Its stability is investigated.

Análise comportamental de recém-nascidos pré-termos incluídos em um programa de estimulação tátil-cinestésica durante a internação hospitalar

OBJETIVO: Avaliar o efeito da estimulação tátil-cinestésica na evolução do padrão comportamental e clínico de recém-nascidos pré-termos (RNPT) durante o período de internação hospitalar. MÉTODOS: Trinta e dois RNPT, com peso ao nascimento inferior a 2.500 gramas, clinicamente estáveis e destituídos de asfixia perinatal importante foram divididos em 16 bebês do grupo controle (GC) e 16 do experimental (GE). Foram coletados dados da evolução clínica a partir dos registros hospitalares e da avaliação comportamental por meio de filmagens semanais de oito minutos, desde a inclusão do RNPT na amostra até a alta hospitalar. RESULTADOS: Tendência a redução do tempo de internação hospitalar, aumento do ganho de peso diário e predominância de comportamentos auto-organizados (respiração regular, estado de alerta, tônus equilibrado, posturas mistas, movimentação coordenada, movimentos de mão na face, sucção, preensão, apoio) para os RNPT do GE. A análise comparativa das idades pós-conceptuais divididas em intervalos (I - 31 a 33 semanas 6/7; II - 34 a 36 semanas 6/7; e III - 37 a 39 semanas 6/7) ressaltou, no aspecto motor, um tônus equilibrado e movimentação voluntária coordenada para os três períodos, maior permanência em posturas mistas (intervalo I) ou em flexão (intervalo II) e a obtenção de respiração mais regular na faixa etária I do GE. CONCLUSÃO: Destaque da estimulação tátil-cinestésica como método de intervenção durante o período de internação hospitalar, contribuindo para a auto-organização e regulação comportamental de RNPT. Artigo registrado no Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) sob o número ACTRN12610000133033.

Estudo eletroquímico comparativo do aço ISO 5832-9 em diferentes meios de interesse biológico

Foi estudado o comportamento eletroquímico a 37°C do aço inoxidável ISO 5832-9, em meios de NaCl 0,9 %, de Ringer Lactato e meio mínimo de Eagle (MEM), por voltametria linear e análises da superfície por microscopia eletrônica de varredura (MEV) e por espectroscopia por dispersão de energia (EDS). Foram feitos ensaios mecânicos e testes de toxicidade. O aço ISO 5832-9 se encontra passivado no potencial de corrosão e não apresenta corrosão por pite nos três meios estudados em toda faixa de potencial investigada, desde o potencial de corrosão até 50 mV acima do potencial de transpassivação. Em meio de MEM, no entanto, as análises por MEV e EDS mostraram que o referido aço, nesse valor mais elevado de potencial, apresentou um comportamento diferente, com perda das inclusões de óxido de manganês. Os potenciais de corrosão, Ecorr (potencial de circuito aberto estacionário) bem como os valores de densidade de corrente de passivação, variaram na seguinte ordem: Ecorr, RL < Ecorr, NaCl < Ecorr, MEM. e jMEM << jRL ≅ jNaCl. No ensaio de citotoxicidade, o aço foi caracterizado como não-tóxico.

Hidden vorticity in binary Bose-Einstein condensates

We consider a binary Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) described by a system of two-dimensional (2D) Gross-Pitaevskii equations with the harmonic-oscillator trapping potential. The intraspecies interactions are attractive, while the interaction between the species may have either sign. The same model applies to the copropagation of bimodal beams in photonic-crystal fibers. We consider a family of trapped hidden-vorticity (HV) modes in the form of bound states of two components with opposite vorticities S(1,2) = +/- 1, the total angular momentum being zero. A challenging problem is the stability of the HV modes. By means of a linear-stability analysis and direct simulations, stability domains are identified in a relevant parameter plane. In direct simulations, stable HV modes feature robustness against large perturbations, while unstable ones split into fragments whose number is identical to the azimuthal index of the fastest growing perturbation eigenmode. Conditions allowing for the creation of the HV modes in the experiment are discussed too. For comparison, a similar but simpler problem is studied in an analytical form, viz., the modulational instability of an HV state in a one-dimensional (1D) system with periodic boundary conditions (this system models a counterflow in a binary BEC mixture loaded into a toroidal trap or a bimodal optical beam coupled into a cylindrical shell). We demonstrate that the stabilization of the 1D HV modes is impossible, which stresses the significance of the stabilization of the HV modes in the 2D setting.

Stability analysis of core-annular flow and neutral stability wave number

A general transition criterion is proposed in order to locate the core-annular flow pattern in horizontal and vertical oil-water flows. It is based on a rigorous one-dimensional two-fluid model of liquid-liquid two-phase flow and considers the existence of critical interfacial wave numbers related to a non-negligible interfacial tension term to which the linear stability theory still applies. The viscous laminar-laminar flow problem is fully resolved and turbulence effects on the stability are analyzed through experimentally obtained shape factors. The proposed general transition criterion includes in its formulation the inviscid Kelvin-Helmholtz`s discriminator. If a theoretical maximum wavelength is considered as a necessary condition for stability, a stability criterion in terms of the Eotvos number is achieved. Effects of interfacial tension, viscosity ratio, density difference, and shape factors on the stability of core-annular flow are analyzed in detail. The more complete modeling allowed for the analysis of the neutral-stability wave number and the results strongly suggest that the interfacial tension term plays an indispensable role in the correct prediction of the stable region of core-annular flow pattern. The incorporation of a theoretical minimum wavelength into the transition model produced significantly better results. The criterion predictions were compared with recent data from the literature and the agreement is encouraging. (C) 2007 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Finite element computational modeling of externally bonded CFRP composites flexural behavior in RC beams

This paper focuses on the flexural behavior of RC beams externally strengthened with Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers (CFRP) fabric. A non-linear finite element (FE) analysis strategy is proposed to support the beam flexural behavior experimental analysis. A development system (QUEBRA2D/FEMOOP programs) has been used to accomplish the numerical simulation. Appropriate constitutive models for concrete, rebars, CFRP and bond-slip interfaces have been implemented and adjusted to represent the composite system behavior. Interface and truss finite elements have been implemented (discrete and embedded approaches) for the numerical representation of rebars, interfaces and composites.

Enlarging the domain of attraction of stable MPC controllers, maintaining the output performance

This work presents an alternative way to formulate the stable Model Predictive Control (MPC) optimization problem that allows the enlargement of the domain of attraction, while preserving the controller performance. Based on the dual MPC that uses the null local controller, it proposed the inclusion of an appropriate set of slacked terminal constraints into the control problem. As a result, the domain of attraction is unlimited for the stable modes of the system, and the largest possible for the non-stable modes. Although this controller does not achieve local optimality, simulations show that the input and output performances may be comparable to the ones obtained with the dual MPC that uses the LQR as a local controller. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Levinson algorithm based on an isometric transformation of Durbin`s

Starting from the Durbin algorithm in polynomial space with an inner product defined by the signal autocorrelation matrix, an isometric transformation is defined that maps this vector space into another one where the Levinson algorithm is performed. Alternatively, for iterative algorithms such as discrete all-pole (DAP), an efficient implementation of a Gohberg-Semencul (GS) relation is developed for the inversion of the autocorrelation matrix which considers its centrosymmetry. In the solution of the autocorrelation equations, the Levinson algorithm is found to be less complex operationally than the procedures based on GS inversion for up to a minimum of five iterations at various linear prediction (LP) orders.

Avoiding Divergence in the Shalvi-Weinstein Algorithm

The most popular algorithms for blind equalization are the constant-modulus algorithm (CMA) and the Shalvi-Weinstein algorithm (SWA). It is well-known that SWA presents a higher convergence rate than CMA. at the expense of higher computational complexity. If the forgetting factor is not sufficiently close to one, if the initialization is distant from the optimal solution, or if the signal-to-noise ratio is low, SWA can converge to undesirable local minima or even diverge. In this paper, we show that divergence can be caused by an inconsistency in the nonlinear estimate of the transmitted signal. or (when the algorithm is implemented in finite precision) by the loss of positiveness of the estimate of the autocorrelation matrix, or by a combination of both. In order to avoid the first cause of divergence, we propose a dual-mode SWA. In the first mode of operation. the new algorithm works as SWA; in the second mode, it rejects inconsistent estimates of the transmitted signal. Assuming the persistence of excitation condition, we present a deterministic stability analysis of the new algorithm. To avoid the second cause of divergence, we propose a dual-mode lattice SWA, which is stable even in finite-precision arithmetic, and has a computational complexity that increases linearly with the number of adjustable equalizer coefficients. The good performance of the proposed algorithms is confirmed through numerical simulations.

Ectopic expression of soybean leghemoglobin in chloroplasts impairs gibberellin biosynthesis and induces dwarfism in transgenic potato plants

We have characterized potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plants expressing a soybean leghemoglobin that is targeted to plastids. Transgenic plants displayed a dwarf phenotype caused by short internode length, and exhibited increased tuberization in vitro. Under in vivo conditions that do not promote tuberization, plants showed smaller parenchymal cells than control plants. Analysis of gibberellin (GA) concentrations indicated that the transgenic plants have a substantial reduction (approximately 10-fold) of bioactive GA(1) concentration in shoots. Application of GA(3) to the shoot apex of the transformed plants completely restored the wild type phenotype suggesting that GA-biosynthesis rather than signal transduction was limiting. Since the first stage of the GA-biosynthetic pathway is located in the plastid, these results suggest that an early step in the pathway may be affected by the presence of the leghemoglobin.

Time stability of soil water storage measured by neutron probe and the effects of calibration procedures in a small watershed

The knowledge of soil water storage (SWS) of soil profiles is crucial for the adoption of vegetation restoration practices. With the aim of identifying representative sites to obtain the mean SWS of a watershed, a time stability analysis of neutron probe evaluations of SWS was performed by the means of relative differences and Spearman rank correlation coefficients. At the same time, the effects of different neutron probe calibration procedures were explored on time stability analysis. mean SWS estimation. and preservation of the spatial variability of SWS. The selected watershed, with deep gullies and undulating slopes which cover an area of 20 ha, is characterized by an Ust-Sandiic Entisol and an Aeolian sandy soil. The dominant vegetation species are bunge needlegrass (Stipa bungeana Trim) and korshinsk peashrub (Carugano Korshinskii kom.). From June 11, 2007 to July 23,2008, SWS of the top1 m soil layer was evaluated for 20 dates, based on neutron probe data of 12 sampling sites. Three calibration procedures were employed: type 1, most complete, with each site having its own linear calibration equation (TrE); type II. with TrE equations extended over the whole field: and type III, with one single linear calibration curve for the whole field (UnE) and also correcting its intercept based on site specific relative difference analysis (RdE) and on linear fitting of data (RcE), both maintaining the same slope. A strong time stability of SWS estimated by TrE equations was identified. Soil particle size and soil organic matter content were recognized as the influencing factors for spatial variability of SWS. Land use influenced neither the spatial variability nor the time stability of SWS. Time stability analysis identified one site to represent the mean SWS of the whole watershed with mean absolute percentage errors of less than 10%, therefore. this site can be used as a predictor for the mean SWS of the watershed. Some equations of type II were found to be unsatisfactory to yield reliable mean SWS values or in preserving the associated soil spatial variability. Hence, it is recommended to be cautious in extending calibration equations to other sites since they might not consider the field variability. For the equations with corrected intercept (type III), which consider the spatial variability of calibration in a different way in relation to TrE, it was found that they can yield satisfactory means and standard deviation of SWS, except for the RdE equations, which largely leveled off the SWS values in the watershed. Correlation analysis showed that the neutron probe calibration was linked to soil bulk density and to organic matter content. Therefore, spatial variability of soil properties should be taken into account during the process of neutron probe calibration. This study provides useful information on the mean SWS observation with a time stable site and on distinct neutron probe calibration procedures, and it should be extended to soil water management studies with neutron probes, e.g., the process of vegetation restoration in wider area and soil types of the Loess Plateau in China. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of BR and QR Eigenvalue Algorithms for Power System Small Signal Stability Analysis

The BR algorithm is a novel and efficient method to find all eigenvalues of upper Hessenberg matrices and has never been applied to eigenanalysis for power system small signal stability. This paper analyzes differences between the BR and the QR algorithms with performance comparison in terms of CPU time based on stopping criteria and storage requirement. The BR algorithm utilizes accelerating strategies to improve its performance when computing eigenvalues of narrowly banded, nearly tridiagonal upper Hessenberg matrices. These strategies significantly reduce the computation time at a reasonable level of precision. Compared with the QR algorithm, the BR algorithm requires fewer iteration steps and less storage space without depriving of appropriate precision in solving eigenvalue problems of large-scale power systems. Numerical examples demonstrate the efficiency of the BR algorithm in pursuing eigenanalysis tasks of 39-, 68-, 115-, 300-, and 600-bus systems. Experiment results suggest that the BR algorithm is a more efficient algorithm for large-scale power system small signal stability eigenanalysis.

Metabolic analysis of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) production by recombinant Escherichia coli

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) production by fermentation was examined under both restricted- and ample-oxygen supply conditions in a single fed-batch fermentation. Recombinant Escherichia coli transformed with the PHB production plasmid pSYL107 was grown to reach high cell density (227 g/l dry cell weight) with a high PHB content (78% of dry cell weight), using a glucose-based minimal medium. A simple flux model containing 12 fluxes was developed and applied to the fermentation data. A superior closure (95%) of the carbon mass balance was achieved. When the data were put into use, the results demonstrated a surprisingly large excretion of formate and lactate. Even though periods of severe oxygen limitation coincided with rapid acetate and lactate excretion, PHB productivity and carbon utilization efficiency were not significantly impaired. These results are very positive in reducing oxygen demand in an industrial PHA fermentation without sacrificing its PHA productivity, thereby reducing overall production costs.