"Ripple Effects" and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas (directly) and Phoenix (indirectly). In addition, Las Vegas housing prices cause housing prices in Phoenix. Los Angeles housing prices prove exogenous in a temporal sense and Phoenix housing prices do not cause prices in the other two markets. Second, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each market, using various vector autoregessive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different cities. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

Can Public Child Welfare Help to Prevent Child Maltreatment? Promising Findings from Los Angeles

This article describes promising findings from the Los Angeles County Prevention Initiative Demonstration Project, a systems change approach to developing relationships between public child welfare, allied public agencies, and community-based networks that offer family-centered services, economic assistance and capacity building to support all kinds of families. It describes the conceptual underpinnings and unique structure of the initiative, the evaluation methods used to assess results, and a pattern of promising results.

Eric D. Perl, Theophany. The Neoplatonic Philosophy of Dionysius the Areopagite, State University of New York Press (SUNY series in ancient Greek philosophy), 2007. 163 p., ISBN-13: 978-0-7914-7111-1

Fil: Caram, Gabriela de los Ángeles.