The dynamics of industrial emergence

The need to stimulate, identify and nurture new industries is a prominent challenge in advanced economies. While basic science represents a valuable source of new ideas and opportunities, it can often take decades before this science finally finds application in the market. While numerous studies have to date focused on aspects of industrial evolution, (e.g. innovation, internationalisation, new product introduction, technological lifecycles and emerging technologies), far fewer have focused on technology-based industrial emergence. It is clear that if assistance is to be provided to firms and industrial policymakers attempting to navigate industrial emergence then we need an improved understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of this phenomenon. Accordingly, this paper reviews published work from a range of disparate disciplines - evolutionary theory, social construction of technology (SCOT), complexity science, industrial dynamics and technology management - to identify these dynamics. Through this review we conceptualise industrial emergence as a co-evolutionary process in which nonlinear dynamics operate. Industrial emergence is sensitive to the initial availability of resources and the market applications, with growth dependent on the supply-demand coupling, agents' actions to reduce uncertainty and catalytic events. Through synthesizing these key dynamics we go on to propose a conceptual model for industrial emergence. © 2010 IEEE.

Towards probabilistic performance metrics for climate change impact studies

This paper explores the current state-of-the-art in performance indicators and use of probabilistic approaches used in climate change impact studies. It presents a critical review of recent publications in this field, focussing on (1) metrics for energy use for heating and cooling, emissions, overheating and high-level performance aspects, and (2) uptake of uncertainty and risk analysis. This is followed by a case study, which is used to explore some of the contextual issues around the broader uptake of climate change impact studies in practice. The work concludes that probabilistic predictions of the impact of climate change are feasible, but only based on strict and explicitly stated assumptions. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections

This article investigates how to use UK probabilistic climate-change projections (UKCP09) in rigorous building energy analysis. Two office buildings (deep plan and shallow plan) are used as case studies to demonstrate the application of UKCP09. Three different methods for reducing the computational demands are explored: statistical reduction (Finkelstein-Schafer [F-S] statistics), simplification using degree-day theory and the use of metamodels. The first method, which is based on an established technique, can be used as reference because it provides the most accurate information. However, it is necessary to automatically choose weather files based on F-S statistic by using computer programming language because thousands of weather files created from UKCP09 weather generator need to be processed. A combination of the second (degree-day theory) and third method (metamodels) requires only a relatively small number of simulation runs, but still provides valuable information to further implement the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The article also demonstrates how grid computing can be used to speed up the calculation for many independent EnergyPlus models by harnessing the processing power of idle desktop computers. © 2011 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

Computational mechanisms of sensorimotor control.

In order to generate skilled and efficient actions, the motor system must find solutions to several problems inherent in sensorimotor control, including nonlinearity, nonstationarity, delays, redundancy, uncertainty, and noise. We review these problems and five computational mechanisms that the brain may use to limit their deleterious effects: optimal feedback control, impedance control, predictive control, Bayesian decision theory, and sensorimotor learning. Together, these computational mechanisms allow skilled and fluent sensorimotor behavior.

Effects of nonuniform reactant stoichiometry on thermoacoustic instability in a lean-premixed gas turbine combustor

Detailed experimental investigations of the amplitude dependence of flame describing functions (FDF) were performed using a stratified swirl-stabilized combustor, in order to understand the combustion-acoustic interactions of CH4/air flames propagating into nonhomogeneous reactant stoichiometry. Phase-synchronized OH planar laser induced fluorescence (OH PLIF) measurements were used to investigate local reaction zone structures of forced flames. To determine the amplitude-and frequency-dependent forced flame response, simultaneous measurements of inlet velocity and heat release rate oscillations were made using a constant temperature anemometer and photomultiplier tubes with narrow-band OH*/CH* interference filters. The measurements were made over a wide range of stratification ratios, including inner stream enrichment ( θ o>θ i) and outer stream enrichment ( θ o>θ i)) conditions, and compared to the baseline condition of spatially and temporally homogeneous cases ( θ o=θ i)). Results show that for the inlet conditions investigated, fuel stratification has a significant influence on local and global flame structures of unforced and forced flames. Under stratified conditions, length scales of local contours were found to be much larger than the homogeneous case due to high kinematic viscosities associated with high temperature. Stratification has a remarkable effect on flame-vortex interactions when the flame is subjected to high-amplitude acoustic forcing, leading to different evolution patterns of FDF (amplitude and disturbance convective time) in response to the amplitude of the imposed inlet velocity oscillation. The present experimental investigation reveals that intentional stratification has the potential to eliminate or suppress the occurrence of detrimental combustion instability problems in lean-premixed gas turbine combustion systems. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

POMDP-based statistical spoken dialog systems: A review

Statistical dialog systems (SDSs) are motivated by the need for a data-driven framework that reduces the cost of laboriously handcrafting complex dialog managers and that provides robustness against the errors created by speech recognizers operating in noisy environments. By including an explicit Bayesian model of uncertainty and by optimizing the policy via a reward-driven process, partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide such a framework. However, exact model representation and optimization is computationally intractable. Hence, the practical application of POMDP-based systems requires efficient algorithms and carefully constructed approximations. This review article provides an overview of the current state of the art in the development of POMDP-based spoken dialog systems. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

The industrial emergence of commercial inkjet printing

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate how supply and demand interact during industrial emergence. Design/methodology/approach: The paper builds on previous theorising about co-evolutionary dynamics, exploring the interaction between supply and demand in a study of the industrial emergence of the commercial inkjet cluster in Cambridge, UK. Data are collected through 13 interviews with professionals working in the industry. Findings: The paper shows that as new industries emerge, asynchronies between technology supply and market demand create opportunities for entrepreneurial activity. In attempting to match innovative technologies to particular applications, entrepreneurs adapt to the system conditions and shape the environment to their own advantage. Firms that successfully operate in emerging industries demonstrate the functionality of new technologies, reducing uncertainty and increasing customer receptiveness. Research limitations/implications: The research is geographically bounded to the Cambridge commercial inkjet cluster. Further studies could consider commercial inkjet from a global perspective or test the applicability of the findings in other industries. Practical implications: Technology-based firms are often innovating during periods of industrial emergence. The insights developed in this paper help such firms recognise the emerging context in which they operate and the challenges that need to overcome. Originality/value: As an in depth study of a single industry, this research responds to calls for studies into industrial emergence, providing insights into how supply and demand interact during this phase of the industry lifecycle. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

旅游相关活动对九寨沟核心景区植物多样性与结构的影响

日益增强的旅游活动干扰正成为九寨沟世界自然遗产的有效保护与持续管理不可回避的挑战，已成为当前区域生态保护与经济发展的焦点问题之一。阐明相关旅游的干扰活动对核心景区植物物种组成、多样性与结构的影响是九寨沟有效保护与持续管理的必要前提和基础，然而至今少有研究。选择九寨沟与旅游活动相关的九个景点、公路建设地段以及退耕地还林地，详细调查了林下植被结构、物种组成与多样性，比较了相关旅游活动干扰与基本未受干扰地段的差异。目的是阐明九寨沟核心景区旅游干扰条件下植物多样性与群落结构及其特点，揭示旅游干扰与植被结构和生物多样的相互关系，评估九寨沟旅游管理的有效性，探索减免旅游干扰影响的对策与措施。初步结论如下。 1.旅游活动引起九寨沟核心景区植物组成和群落结构特征改变显著。栈道及公路附近许多耐荫喜湿的敏感种局部消失，而早熟禾、车前草、委陵菜等耐干旱、耐践踏、繁殖能力强的植物种群扩大；外来物种频繁出现并已少量侵入干扰相对较轻的林分深处；林下群落以草本植物为优势，灌木与苔藓植物的频度、盖度、高度以及灌木密度均有所下降。可见，大量的游人活动和景区公路建设已对九寨沟丰富的乡土植物构成极大威胁，导致其生物多样性降低。而九寨沟农耕地退耕有利于九寨沟生态环境和生物多样性保护，正逐步向稳定群落演替。 2．干扰强度的差异导致九寨沟植物所受影响的程度不同。栈道附近植物受影响的程度与游人活动频率有关，活动频率高的地段干扰强度大，对植物的影响程度重，反之植物所受的影响较轻。强度干扰地段，耐荫喜湿的物种少见，伴生植物优势地位突出，生物多样性明显降低，植物群落结构特征改变也极为显著；干扰较轻的地段，伴生物种少量出现，植物群落结构变化不明显，生物多样性略为降低，部分地区结构参数值和多样性指数有所升高。公路修建是一种强度干扰，它导致附近植物种类极为单一，草本优势种异常突出，多数植物生活力低下、生长更新能力差。 3.不同植物类群受干扰影响的程度不同。草本及苔藓植物的种类组成和多样性指数受干扰影响较大，灌木和苔藓植物的结构受干扰影响较大，苔藓植物对干扰影响最为敏感。 综合分析表明，九寨沟核心景区的管理虽然比较规范，但目前核心区热点景点段的管理仍然不够，旅游活动驱动了林下植被退化明显、物种组成显著变化、生物多样性衰退、非乡土喜光耐旱种群扩大。导致九寨沟核心区旅游活动与生物多样性保护目标尖锐冲突，进一步约束旅游活动带来的干扰，强化管理，开展林下植被恢复与非乡土喜光耐旱种群调控是九寨沟自然遗产地保护一项紧迫任务。 The increasing tourism disturbance is an unavoidable challenge to effective conservation and sustained tourist management of Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve. It has become one of the focal problems of regional ecological protect and economic development. It is important to clarify effects of tourism disturbance on plant species composition, diversity and community structure in kernel spot for effective conservation and sustained tourist management in Jiuzhaigou, China. However, there were little studies about this yet. The study investigated the vegetation structure, species composition and diversity at nine sight spot, road area and four abandoned farmlands connecting with tourism, and compared the differences between disturbed area and undisturbed area. The purpose of the this study is clarifying the plant diversity and community structure and characteristics of the disturbed area in kernel spot of Jiuzhaigou, discovering the relation between vegetation structure and biodiversity, evaluating the effect of tourist management and exploring the measure decreasing tourist disturbance. Our results are following: 1. Tourism disturbance caused a significant change in species composition and structure of plant communities in kernel Spot of Jiuzhaigou. In the vicinity of plank and road, some native shade-tolerant or hygrophilous plants had disappeared, accompanying with the population expansion of some xerophilous and disturbance-resisting species such as Poa sp. Plantago depressa, Potentiila multicaulis and some exotic and synanthropic species. Herbs were domaint species, while frequency coverage and height of shrubs and bryophytes, and shrub density decreased. In indicated that tourist activities and build of road had adversely affected on native plant species, and led to decline in biodiversity of Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve. Abandoned farmlands maybe conduced to entironment and biodiversity conservation. 2. Nearby the plank, influency variable of tourism disturbance on plant was alosely and positively correlated with disturbance intensity. There was companion plant species and lacked shape-loving species in heavy disturbed areas, which caused decrease in biodiversity and significant change in community structure in these places. On the contrary, in the slightly disturbed areas, some companion speices displayed and biodiversity decreased slightly, but no significant change in community structure in these areas. The biuld of road is a heavy disturbance form, which led to increase of herb species and to decrease in vitality and regeneration capacity. 3. The intensity of tourism disturbance on plant depended on plant groups. Tourism interference significantly influenced species composition and diversity index of herb and bryophyte; it also significantly influenced community structure; the bryophyte was more sensitive to tourism disturbance. Our result indicated that the management in kernel spot of Jiuzhaigou is relatively reasonable, but not adequate. Tourism speed the degradation of the vegetation under woodland, the change of the species composition, the decreaing of the biodiversity and the expanding of the exotic sunloving plant populations. The contradiction between tourism and conserving biodiversity is increasing, so enforcing management, regenerating the vegetation under woodland and adjusting the exotic sunloving arid-tolerent plant populations is a pressing work to protect the Jiuzhaigou natural legacy.

自适应模糊PID控制在AUV控制中的应用

自治潜水器(AUV,Autonomous Underwater Vehicle)是非线性、强耦合、大惯性的多输入多输出系统,又由于受到海流、传感器、执行机构等不确定性的影响,对AUV控制器的鲁棒性能提出了更高的要求。本文针对我国正在研制开发的长航程自治潜水器的特性及其对航行控制的要求,将PID控制与模糊控制的简便性、灵活性以及鲁棒性结合起来,为AUV设计了可在线修改PID参数的自适应模糊PID控制器,仿真结果证明了该种控制方法不但提高了AUV系统的动态特性,而且可在参数摄动和外界扰动时获得较好的控制性能。

自主移动机器人激光全局定位系统研究

本文介绍了我们研制开发的一种用于自主移动机器人的激光全局定位系统 ,重点描述了该系统的硬件结构和工作原理 ,介绍分析了定位算法 .文章最后介绍了该定位系统在实验室条件下所进行的实验 .实验结果表明 :该系统具有较高的定位精度和抗干扰能力 ,是自主移动机器人理想的定位工具 .

中低纬度变化磁场的暴时特征研究

Magnetic storm is a kind of severe disturbances in the whole solar-earth electromagnetic space. It has significant effects on communication, electric power, oil transport pipe and human activities in space. Therefore, magnetic storms are worth for applications systems, not only being a favorable issue for scientists. In this paper, the spatial and temporal distributions of the magnetic fields produced by the magnetosphere-ionosphere current systems during storms are studied. Four parts are included in this paper decomposion of different disturbances with different origins, topological structure of the ring current, the asymmetric characteristics of the ring current, and the statistic peculiarities of the day-to-day variability (DTD) of Sq. 1 The decomposition of magnetic disturbances at mid-low latitudes and its evolutions during storms Transient variations in the geomagnetic field recorded at mid-low latitudes mainly include the storm-time variation (Dst), solar quiet daily variation (Sq) and disturbance daily variation (SD). With the data of the geomagnetic meridian chain observatories in China, 25 storms during the period of 1997 to 1999 have been analyzed. According to the features of different variations, a method of “three-steps decomposition” is developed by using the method of Natural Orthogonal Components (NOC), Correlation Analysis and Fourier Analysis to separate those three components in turn. The results show that, the first eigenmode by the MNOC clearly describing the special distribution and temporal evolution of storm-time variation, in addition, Correlation Analysis and Fourier Analysis offer a useful method to extract the Sq and SD variations. The latitudinal shift of the Sq current focus seems to be the principal reason of the day-to-day variaitons in the daily range of Sq. The magnitude of SD reaches a maximum during the main phase, and then gradually decreases. 2 The topology structure of the ring current during storms Both the mechanism of the ring current and the geomagnetic data suggest that the central plane of the ring current is declining to the geomagnetic equator plane with a tilt angle δ. Using the H and Z component data at two stations in a meridian chain, we deduce a new parameter describing the invariable peculiarity of different storms. Then the δ angle is calculated by using the data from a meridian chain and tested with the ERC model. Finally the deduced tilt angles are used to modify Dst index. 3 The asymmetric characteristics of the ring current during storms The variations of the geomagnetic field at mid-low latitudes show a significant dawn-dusk asymmetry, resulting from the superposition of the fields from the symmetric ring current and the partial ring current. On the basis of the data from the 20°E, 30°E meridian chains and 30°N latitudinal chain, the dawn-dusk asymmetry is investigated by using three methods, namely, statistic analysis, ring current model calculation and typical event analysis. This characteristic implies the asymmetry of the spatial distribution of the ring current. In addition, during the main phase after the sudden commencement (SC), H field increases and reaches maximum around noontime, implying the effect of the Chapman-Ferraro current. 4 The statistic characteristics of the day-to-day variability and its mechanism The day-to-day variability of the geomagnetic Sq field is studied by using the magnetic data from a meridian chain of magnetometers along 120° E longitude. The method of NOC is applied to separate the Sq variation from complicated disturbances. The first eigenmode with the largest eigenvalue represents fairly well the Sq variation with a conspicuous day-to-day variability in the daily range. For the stations on the same north- or south-side of the Sq current system focus, the day-to-day variations show a positive correlation. In contrast, for the stations on the different sides of the Sq focus, they show a negative correlation, suggesting an important role of latitudinal shift of the Sq current system focus to the day-to-day variability of the Sq daily range. The Sq daily range is correlated with the magnetic indices Ap and Dst in a peculiar way: on some severe disturbed days, noticeably enhancements of the Sq are observed, implying increases of the ionospheric conductivities and/or tidal wind velocities; on other severe disturbed days, however, dramatically reduced Sq variations occur, suggesting dominant effects of the ‘disturbance dynamo’ process.

地理信息系统支持下的滑坡灾害空间分析预测-以云南小江流域为例

As a typical geological and environmental hazard, landslide has been causing more and more property and life losses. However, to predict its accurate occurring time is very difficult or even impossible due to landslide's complex nature. It has been realized that it is not a good solution to spend a lot of money to treat with and prevent landslide. The research trend is to study landslide's spatial distribution and predict its potential hazard zone under certain region and certain conditions. GIS(Geographical Information System) is a power tools for data management, spatial analysis based on reasonable spatial models and visualization. It is new and potential study field to do landslide hazard analysis and prediction based on GIS. This paper systematically studies the theory and methods for GIS based landslide hazard analysis. On the basis of project "Mountainous hazard study-landslide and debris flows" supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences and the former study foundation, this paper carries out model research, application, verification and model result analysis. The occurrence of landslide has its triggering factors. Landslide has its special landform and topographical feature which can be identify from field work and remote sensing image (aerial photo). Historical record of landslide is the key to predict the future behaviors of landslide. These are bases for landslide spatial data base construction. Based on the plenty of literatures reviews, the concept framework of model integration and unit combinations is formed. Two types of model, CF multiple regression model and landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model are bought forward. CF multiple regression model comes form statistics and possibility theory based on data. Data itself contains the uncertainty and random nature of landslide hazard, so it can be seen as a good method to study and understand landslide's complex feature and mechanics. CF multiple regression model integrates CF (landslide Certainty Factor) and multiple regression prediction model. CF can easily treat with the problems of data quantifying and combination of heteroecious data types. The combination of CF can assist to determine key landslide triggering factors which are then inputted into multiple regression model. CF regression model can provide better prediction results than traditional model. The process of landslide can be described and modeled by suitable physical and mechanical model. Landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model is such a physical deterministic model that can be easily used for landslide hazard analysis and prediction. It couples the general limit equilibrium method and hydrological distribution model based on DEM, and can be used as a effective approach to predict the occurrence of landslide under different precipitation conditions as well as landslide mechanics research. It can not only explain pre-existed landslides, but also predict the potential hazard region with environmental conditions changes. Finally, this paper carries out landslide hazard analysis and prediction in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed, including landslide hazard sensitivity analysis and regression prediction model based on selected key factors, determining the relationship between landslide occurrence possibility and triggering factors. The result of landslide hazard analysis and prediction by coupled model is discussed in details. On the basis of model verification and validation, the modeling results are showing high accuracy and good applying potential in landslide research.

Residual Vibration Reduction in Computer Controlled Machines

Control of machines that exhibit flexibility becomes important when designers attempt to push the state of the art with faster, lighter machines. Three steps are necessary for the control of a flexible planet. First, a good model of the plant must exist. Second, a good controller must be designed. Third, inputs to the controller must be constructed using knowledge of the system dynamic response. There is a great deal of literature pertaining to modeling and control but little dealing with the shaping of system inputs. Chapter 2 examines two input shaping techniques based on frequency domain analysis. The first involves the use of the first deriviate of a gaussian exponential as a driving function template. The second, acasual filtering, involves removal of energy from the driving functions at the resonant frequencies of the system. Chapter 3 presents a linear programming technique for generating vibration-reducing driving functions for systems. Chapter 4 extends the results of the previous chapter by developing a direct solution to the new class of driving functions. A detailed analysis of the new technique is presented from five different perspectives and several extensions are presented. Chapter 5 verifies the theories of the previous two chapters with hardware experiments. Because the new technique resembles common signal filtering, chapter 6 compares the new approach to eleven standard filters. The new technique will be shown to result in less residual vibrations, have better robustness to system parameter uncertainty, and require less computation than other currently used shaping techniques.

Życie po wybuchu. Refleksy transformacji w czeskiej dramaturgii po 1989 roku

Niniejszy esej poświęcony jest analizie czeskich, teatralnych refleksji na temat rzeczywistości po transformacji politycznej. Przegląd wybranych sztuk, powstałych w latach 1994-2006, zawiera krótkie literaturoznawcze opracowania tekstów M. Bambuška, L. Baláka i J. Topola, dopełnione uwagami na temat dzieł D. Drábka i M. Urbana. Skatalogowano powtarzające się w sztukach wymienionych autorów motywy: czekania na barbarzyńców, poczucia epistemologicznego i społecznego chaosu, neotrybalizmu i spustoszenia w dziedzinie międzyludzkiej komunikacji (kryzys języka). Pomocną kategorią, wywodzącą się z amerykańskiej socjologii, jest backlash: stan po wybuchu. Backlash jest stanem psychologicznym (również w sensie psycho- logii społecznej), który skłania do podejmowania decyzji nieracjonalnych i niebezpiecznych, służących wyłącznie zniesieniu poczucia niepewności i tęsknoty. Ten stan obserwują i komentują wymienieni autorzy sztuk teatralnych.

Gestão integrada de recursos humanos em farmácia comunitária e seus fundamentos

Projeto de Pós-Graduação/Dissertação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências Farmacêuticas