The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Involvement of the RNA-binding protein ARE/poly(U)-binding factor 1 (AUF1) in the cytotoxic effects of proinflammatory cytokines on pancreatic beta cells.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Chronic exposure of pancreatic beta cells to proinflammatory cytokines leads to impaired insulin secretion and apoptosis. ARE/poly(U)-binding factor 1 (AUF1) belongs to a protein family that controls mRNA stability and translation by associating with adenosine- and uridine-rich regions of target messengers. We investigated the involvement of AUF1 in cytokine-induced beta cell dysfunction. METHODS: Production and subcellular distribution of AUF1 isoforms were analysed by western blotting. To test for their role in the control of beta cell functions, each isoform was overproduced individually in insulin-secreting cells. The contribution to cytokine-mediated beta cell dysfunction was evaluated by preventing the production of AUF1 isoforms by RNA interference. The effect of AUF1 on the production of potential targets was assessed by western blotting. RESULTS: MIN6 cells and human pancreatic islets were found to produce four AUF1 isoforms (p42>p45>p37>p40). AUF1 isoforms were mainly localised in the nucleus but were partially translocated to the cytoplasm upon exposure of beta cells to cytokines and activation of the ERK pathway. Overproduction of AUF1 did not affect glucose-induced insulin secretion but promoted apoptosis. This effect was associated with a decrease in the production of the anti-apoptotic proteins, B cell leukaemia/lymphoma 2 (BCL2) and myeloid cell leukaemia sequence 1 (MCL1). Silencing of AUF1 isoforms restored the levels of the anti-apoptotic proteins, attenuated the activation of the nuclear factor-κB (NFκB) pathway, and protected the beta cells from cytokine-induced apoptosis. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our findings point to a contribution of AUF1 to the deleterious effects of cytokines on beta cell functions and suggest a role for this RNA-binding protein in the early phases of type 1 diabetes.

A measure of the intensity of response to alcohol to screen for alcohol use disorders in primary care.

Alcohol-dependent subjects tend to report lower level of response to alcohol (LR) in the years before the disorder developed, compared to control subjects. The Self-Rating of the Effects of alcohol (SRE) score is a quick and valid retrospective estimate of LR. This study examined the associations between alcohol abuse or dependence and early experience of alcohol as measured on retrospective SRE score (relating to the first five times alcohol was imbibed), and the presence of alcohol abuse or dependence, in patients attending primary care. Higher Early SRE score (i.e. greater early tolerance of alcohol) was obtained in patients with an alcohol-related diagnosis than in patients without those diagnoses. Using a cut-off of 2 on the Early SRE score, the Early SRE score could discriminate between patients with and without an alcohol diagnosis with moderate to high sensitivity (84%) and modest specificity (57%).

Reconsideration of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics ellaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology

This paper is to examine the proper use of dimensions and curve fitting practices elaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology in relation to the three main concerns of his epistemological orientation. Section 2 introduces two critical issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics in view of Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology. Section 3 deals with the logarithmic function (ln z) and shows that z must be a dimensionless pure number, otherwise it is nonsensical. Several unfortunate examples of this analytical error are presented including macroeconomic data analysis conducted by a representative figure in this field. Section 4 deals with the standard Cobb-Douglas function. It is shown that the operational meaning cannot be obtained for capital or labor within the Cobb-Douglas function. Section 4 also deals with economists "curve fitting fetishism". Section 5 concludes thispaper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Biocompatibility of an x-shaped zirconium implant in deep sclerectomy in rabbits.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the mid-term biocompatibility of a new x-shaped implant made of zirconium in an animal model of glaucoma surgery. METHODS: Preoperatively, ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM), intraocular pressure (IOP) and outflow facility (OF) data were acquired. Upon surgery, one eye was chosen randomly to receive an implant, while the other received none. Ten rabbits went through a 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 6-month follow-up. IOP was measured regularly, UBM performed at 1, 3 and 6 months after surgery. At the end of the follow-up, OF was again measured. Histology sections were analyzed. RESULTS: For both groups IOP control was satisfactory, while OF initially increased at month 1 to resume preoperative values thereafter. Eyes with implants had larger filtration blebs which decreased faster than in eyes without the implant. Drainage vessel density, inflammatory cell number and fibrosis were higher in tissues near the implant. CONCLUSIONS: The zirconium implant initially promoted the positive effects of the surgery (IOP control, OF increase). Nevertheless, after several months, foreign body reactions and fibrosis had occurred on some implants that restrained the early benefit of such a procedure. Modifications of the zirconium implant geometry could enhance the overall success rate.

On dome-shaped norms of reaction for size-to-age at maturity in fishes

The optimal size-to-age at maturity depends on growth and mortality rates, which vary with environment. Therefore, organisms in spatially or temporaly changing environments should develop adaptative phenotypic plasticity for this trait. Experimental work by Alm (1959) on several fish species shows a dome-shape norm of reaction for size-to-age at maturity: size at maturity is smaller in both fast-growing and slow-growing fishes, than it is in fish with a medium growth rate. Using computer simulations, we show that such a dome-shaped norm of reaction is optimal when assuming a finite life span and a negative relationship between production and survival rates. This latter assumption is supported by empirical data, as well as by physiological and emographic arguments.

Use of combined suspension laryngoscopy, flexible bronchoscopy and high frequency jet ventilation for Y-shaped airway stents delivery

La trachée et les bronches proximales sont de fins conduits subtils, ingénieusement structurés par une partie cartilagineuse antérieure résistante aux variations de pression et une partie membraneuse postérieure souple. Par leurs faibles volumes (espace mort) ils délivrent un grand pourcentage de l'air inspiré aux voies distales, puis au parenchyme pulmonaire, permettant les échanges de gaz. Cette belle harmonie respiratoire peut être rapidement mise à mal dès qu'un processus atteint ces voies respiratoires proximales, soit en les comprimant, processus sténosant, soit en affaiblissant leur structure, trachéo-bronchomalacie, soit en ouvrant leur paroi sur les structures médiastinales, fistule trachéo/broncho-médiastinales, pleurales ou autres. Le pronostic vital est alors rapidement engagé au vu de l'absolue nécessité du bon fonctionnement de ces fins conduits, une petite diminution du calibre de leurs fines lumières provoquant une baisse importante de leurs surfaces. Dans ces situations à haut potentiel de complication majeure les interventions endoscopiques pour restaurer l'intégrité de ces conduits sont alors fort risquées, et il est primordial de pouvoir les effectuer dans un cadre sécurisé au maximum. La réalisation de ces gestes par la technique décrite dans notre article « Use of combined suspension laryngoscopy, flexible bronchoscopy and high frequency jet ventilation forY-shaped airway stents delivery" permet la sécurité nécessaire à ces situations instable, en effet -la laryngoscopie en suspension expose les voies proximales en offrant un accès le plus large possible à l'arbre trachéobronchique ce qui permet l insertion de multiples instruments parfois volumineux, -la Jet ventilation assure une oxygénation et une ventilation adéquate par un fin cathéter placé soit dans le poumon sain, soit en distalité de la lésion -la bronchoscopie souple, passant au travers d'endroits exigus et courbes permet le déploiement sous vision direct, au millimètre près, de divers dispositifs. Cette association remplace avantageusement la technique traditionnelle qui insère les stents à l'aveugle, et en apnée, ce qui représente de haut risque de mauvais positionnement des stents avec des conséquences immédiates sur l'oxygénation et la ventilation souvent déjà bien altérées. Perspective et conclusion : cette technique est utile pour l'insertion des stents en Y, centraux, comme décrit dans notre article, et les indications peuvent être étendues aux stents distaux pour lesquels l'accès n'est parfois pas aisé avec le bronchoscope rigide, et pour d'autres interventions endoscopiques, laser, cryothérapie, radiofréquence ou l'insertion de nouveaux dispositifs.

Resolution of foveal detachment in dome-shaped macula after treatment by spironolactone: report of two cases and mini-review of the literature.

Dome-shaped macula (DSM) was recently described in myopic patients as a convex protrusion of the macula within a posterior pole staphyloma. The pathogenesis of DSM and the development of associated serous foveal detachment (SFD) remain unclear. The obstruction of choroidal outflow and compressive changes of choroidal capillaries have been proposed as causative factors. In this paper, we report two cases of patients with chronic SFD associated with DSM treated with oral spironolactone. After treatment, there was a complete resolution of SFD in both patients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of successful treatment of SFD in DSM by a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist.

Los alumnos de la E.U.E CRUZ ROJA en Madrid : evolución histórica, visión antropológica

L'objectiu principal d'aquest treball és mostrar la història de l'Escola Universitària d'Infermeria de Creu Roja a Madrid, a través dels alumnes que s'han format en ella, des de 1918 fins a l'època actual.

The Identity Style Inventory (ISI-3) and the Utrecht-Management of Identity Commitments Scale (U-MICS): Factor structure, reliability, and convergent validity in French-speaking college students

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the factor structure and the reliability of the French versions of the Identity Style Inventory (ISI-3) and the Utrecht-Management of Identity Commitments Scale (U-MICS) in a sample of college students (N = 457, 18 to 25 years old). Confirmatory factor analyses confirmed the hypothesized three-factor solution of the ISI-3 identity styles (i.e. informational, normative, and diffuse-avoidant styles), the one-factor solution of the ISI-3 identity commitment, and the three-factor structure of the U-MICS (i.e. commitment, in-depth exploration, and reconsideration of commitment). Additionally, theoretically consistent and meaningful associations among the ISI-3, U-MICS, and Ego Identity Process Questionnaire (EIPQ) confirmed convergent validity. Overall, the results of the present study indicate that the French versions of the ISI-3 and UMICS are useful instruments for assessing identity styles and processes, and provide additional support to the cross-cultural validity of these tools.

U.S. National Parks and "The Tragedy of the Commons" : A contribution to the characterization of U.S. mountain guides' professional practice

This paper aims at presenting the stakes related to the access to protected land in the United States and to its conservation, through the analysis of the professional practice of U.S. mountain guides. From a methodological standpoint, this research is based both on a theoretical analysis grounded in the field of environmental economics and on an empirical study. The authors' starting point is Garrett Hardin's paper, "The Tragedy of the Commons" (Science, 1968), even if it introduces some confusion on the notion of common goods. So as to avoid this confusion, the authors use two theoretical tools pertaining to a typology of common goods and the different property rights that can be applied in National Parks. Finally, they apply this framework to the observations made on the field in Colorado in July 2009.