Pairwise comparison matrices and the error-free property of the decision maker

Pairwise comparison is a popular assessment method either for deriving criteria-weights or for evaluating alternatives according to a given criterion. In real-world applications consistency of the comparisons rarely happens: intransitivity can occur. The aim of the paper is to discuss the relationship between the consistency of the decision maker—described with the error-free property—and the consistency of the pairwise comparison matrix (PCM). The concept of error-free matrix is used to demonstrate that consistency of the PCM is not a sufficient condition of the error-free property of the decision maker. Informed and uninformed decision makers are defined. In the first stage of an assessment method a consistent or near-consistent matrix should be achieved: detecting, measuring and improving consistency are part of any procedure with both types of decision makers. In the second stage additional information are needed to reveal the decision maker’s real preferences. Interactive questioning procedures are recommended to reach that goal.

Első- és másodfajú etikai kudarcok (Type I and type II ethical errors)

A cikkben a szerző a piac és a kormányzat kudarcaiból kiindulva azonosítja a közjó elérését célzó harmadik rendszer, az etikai felelősség kudarcait. Statisztikai analógiát használva elsőfajú kudarcként azonosítja, mikor az etikát nem veszik figyelembe, pedig szükség van rá. Ugyanakkor másodfajú kudarcként kezeli az etika profitnövelést célzó használatát, mely megtéveszti az érintetteteket, így még szélesebb utat enged az opportunista üzleti tevékenységnek. Meglátása szerint a három rendszer egymást nemcsak kiegészíti, de kölcsönösen korrigálja is. Ez az elsőfajú kudarc esetében általánosabb, a másodfajú kudarc megoldásához azonban a gazdasági élet alapvetéseinek átfogalmazására, az önérdek és az egydimenziós teljesítményértékelés helyett egy új, holisztikusabb szemléletű közgazdaságra van szükség. _______ In the article the author identifies the errors of ethical responsibility. That is the third system to attain common good, but have similar failures like the other two: the hands of the market and the government. Using statistical analogy the author identifies Type I error when ethics are not considered but it should be (null hypothesis is rejected however it’s true). She treats the usage of ethics to extend profit as Type II error. This misleads the stakeholders and makes room for opportunistic behaviour in business (null hypothesis is accepted in turn it’s false). In her opinion the three systems: the hand of the market, the government and the ethical management not only amend but interdependently correct each other. In the case of Type I error it is more general. Nevertheless to solve the Type II error we have to redefine the core principles of business. We need a more holistic approach in economics instead of self-interest and one-dimensional interpretation of value.

Elemental analysis of glass and ink by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS)

The necessity of elemental analysis techniques to solve forensic problems continues to expand as the samples collected from crime scenes grow in complexity. Laser ablation ICP-MS (LA-ICP-MS) has been shown to provide a high degree of discrimination between samples that originate from different sources. In the first part of this research, two laser ablation ICP-MS systems were compared, one using a nanosecond laser and another a femtosecond laser source for the forensic analysis of glass. The results showed that femtosecond LA-ICP-MS did not provide significant improvements in terms of accuracy, precision and discrimination, however femtosecond LA-ICP-MS did provide lower detection limits. In addition, it was determined that even for femtosecond LA-ICP-MS an internal standard should be utilized to obtain accurate analytical results for glass analyses. In the second part, a method using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the forensic analysis of glass was shown to provide excellent discrimination for a glass set consisting of 41 automotive fragments. The discrimination power was compared to two of the leading elemental analysis techniques, μXRF and LA-ICP-MS, and the results were similar; all methods generated >99% discrimination and the pairs found indistinguishable were similar. An extensive data analysis approach for LIBS glass analyses was developed to minimize Type I and II errors en route to a recommendation of 10 ratios to be used for glass comparisons. Finally, a LA-ICP-MS method for the qualitative analysis and discrimination of gel ink sources was developed and tested for a set of ink samples. In the first discrimination study, qualitative analysis was used to obtain 95.6% discrimination for a blind study consisting of 45 black gel ink samples provided by the United States Secret Service. A 0.4% false exclusion (Type I) error rate and a 3.9% false inclusion (Type II) error rate was obtained for this discrimination study. In the second discrimination study, 99% discrimination power was achieved for a black gel ink pen set consisting of 24 self collected samples. The two pairs found to be indistinguishable came from the same source of origin (the same manufacturer and type of pen purchased in different locations). It was also found that gel ink from the same pen, regardless of the age, was indistinguishable as were gel ink pens (four pens) originating from the same pack.

Effect of delay of first interview and repetition of interview on accuracy and confidence of recall of a flashbulb -type memory

Hearing of the news of the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, in a traffic accident, is taken as an analogue for being a percipient but uninvolved witness to a crime, or a witness to another person's sudden confession to some illegal act. This event (known in the literature as a “reception event”) has previously been hypothesized to cause one to form a special type of memory commonly known as a “flashbulb memory” (FB) (Brown and Kulik, 1977). FB's are hypothesized to be especially resilient against forgetting, highly detailed including peripheral details, clear, and inspiring great confidence in the individual for their accuracy. FB's are dependent for their formation upon surprise, emotional valence, and impact, or consequentiality to the witness of the initiating event. FB's are thought to be enhanced by frequent rehearsal. FB's are very important in the context of criminal investigation and litigation in that investigators and jurors usually place great store in witnesses, regardless of their actual accuracy, who claim to have a clear and complete recollection of an event, and who express this confidently. Therefore, the lives, or at least the freedom, of criminal defendants, and the fortunes of civil litigants hang on the testimony of witnesses professing to have FB's. ^ In this study, which includes a large and diverse sample (N = 305), participants were surveyed within 2–4 days after hearing of the fatal accident, and again at intervals of 2 and 4 weeks, 6, 12, and 18 months. Contrary to the FB hypothesis, I found that participants' FB's degraded over time beginning at least as early as two weeks post event. At about 12 months the memory trace stabilized, resisting further degradation. Repeated interviewing did not have any negative affect upon accuracy, contrary to concerns in the literature. Analysis by correlation and regression indicated no effect or predictive power for participant age, emotionality, confidence, or student status, as related to accuracy of recall; nor was participant confidence in accuracy predicted by emotional impact as hypothesized. Results also indicate that, contrary to the notions of investigators and jurors, witnesses become more inaccurate over time regardless of their confidence in their memories, even for highly emotional events. ^

Quality of life and application of the transtheoretical model to diabetes self -management behaviors in older adults with type 2 diabetes

One in five adults 65 years and older has diabetes. Coping with diabetes is a lifelong task, and much of the responsibility for managing the disease falls upon the individual. Reports of non-adherence to recommended treatments are high. Understanding the additive impact of diabetes on quality of life issues is important. The purpose of this study was to investigate the quality of life and diabetes self-management behaviors in ethnically diverse older adults with type 2 diabetes. The SF-12v2 was used to measure physical and mental health quality of life. Scores were compared to general, age sub-groups, and diabetes-specific norms. The Transtheoretical Model (TTM) was applied to assess perceived versus actual behavior for three diabetes self-management tasks: dietary management, medication management, and blood glucose self-monitoring. Dietary intake and hemoglobin A1c values were measured as outcome variables. Utilizing a cross-sectional research design, participants were recruited from Elderly Nutrition Program congregate meal sites (n = 148, mean age 75). ^ Results showed that mean scores of the SF-12v2 were significantly lower in the study sample than the general norms for physical health (p < .001), mental health (p < .01), age sub-group norms (p < .05), and diabetes-specific norms for physical health (p < .001). A multiple regression analysis found that adherence to an exercise plan was significantly associated with better physical health (p < .001). Transtheoretical Model multiple regression analyses explained 68% of the variance for % Kcal from fat, 41% for fiber, 70% for % Kcal from carbohydrate, and 7% for hemoglobin A 1c values. Significant associations were found between TTM stage of change and dietary fiber intake (p < .01). Other significant associations related to diet included gender (p < .01), ethnicity (p < .05), employment (p < .05), type of insurance (p < .05), adherence to an exercise plan (p < .05), number of doctor visits/year ( p < .01), and physical health (p < .05). Significant associations were found between hemoglobin A1c values and age ( p < .05), being non-Hispanic Black (p < .01), income (p < .01), and eye problems (p < .05). ^ The study highlights the importance of the beneficial effects of exercise on quality of life issues. Furthermore, application of the Transtheoretical Model in conjunction with an assessment of dietary intake may be valuable in helping individuals make lifestyle changes. ^

An Assessment of the Performances of Several Univariate Tests of Normality

The importance of checking the normality assumption in most statistical procedures especially parametric tests cannot be over emphasized as the validity of the inferences drawn from such procedures usually depend on the validity of this assumption. Numerous methods have been proposed by different authors over the years, some popular and frequently used, others, not so much. This study addresses the performance of eighteen of the available tests for different sample sizes, significance levels, and for a number of symmetric and asymmetric distributions by conducting a Monte-Carlo simulation. The results showed that considerable power is not achieved for symmetric distributions when sample size is less than one hundred and for such distributions, the kurtosis test is most powerful provided the distribution is leptokurtic or platykurtic. The Shapiro-Wilk test remains the most powerful test for asymmetric distributions. We conclude that different tests are suitable under different characteristics of alternative distributions.

Sedimentology of cores from the Iberian margin

Bioturbation in marine sediments has basically two aspects of interest for palaeo-environmental studies. First, the traces left by the burrowing organisms reflect the prevailing environmental conditions at the seafloor and thus can be used to reconstruct the ecologic and palaeoceanographic situation. Traces have the advantage over other proxies of practically always being preserved in situ. Secondly, for high- resolution stratigraphy, bioturbation is a nuisance due to the stirring and mixing processes that destroy the stratigraphic record. In order to evaluate the applicability of biogenic traces as palaeoenvironmental indicators, a number of gravity cores from the Portuguese continental slope, covering the period from the last glacial to the present were investigated through X-ray radiographs. In addition, physical and chemical parameters were determined to define the environmental niche in each core interval. A number of traces could be recognized, the most important being: Thalassinoides, Planolites, Zoophycos, Chondrites, Scolicia, Palaeophycus, Phycosiphon and the generally pyritized traces Trichichnus and Mycellia. The shifts between the different ichnofabrics agree strikingly well with the variations in ocean circulation caused by the changing climate. On the upper and middle slope, variations in current intensity and oxygenation of the Mediterranean Outflow Water were responsible for shifts in the ichnofabric. Larger traces such as Planolites and Thalassinoides dominated in coarse, well oxygenated intervals, while small traces such as Chondrites and Trichichnus dominated in fine grained, poorly oxygenated intervals. In contrast, on the lower slope where calm steady sedimentation conditions prevail, changes in sedimentation rate and nutrient flux have controlled variations in the distribution of larger traces such as Planolites, Thalassinoides, and Palaeophycus. Additionally, distinct layers of abundant Chondrites correspond to Heinrich events 1, 2, and 4, and are interpreted as a response to incursions of nutrient rich, oxygen depleted Antarctic waters during phases of reduced thermohaline circulation. The results clearly show that not one single factor but a combination of several factors is necessary to explain the changes in ichnofabric. Furthermore, large variations in the extent and type of bioturbation and tiering between different settings clearly show that a more detailed knowledge of the factors governing bioturbation is necessary if we shall fully comprehend how proxy records are disturbed. A first attempt to automatize a part of the recognition and quantification of the ichnofabric was performed using the DIAna image analysis program on digitized X-ray radiographs. The results show that enhanced abundance of pyritized microburrows appears to be coupled to organic rich sediments deposited under dysoxic conditions. Coarse grained sediments inhibit the formation of pyritized burrows. However, the smallest changes in program settings controlling the grey scale threshold and the sensitivity resulted in large shifts in the number of detected burrows. Therefore, this method can only be considered to be semi-quantitative. Through AMS-^C dating of sample pairs from the Zoophycos spreiten and the surrounding host sediment, age reversals of up to 3,320 years could be demonstrated for the first time. The spreiten material is always several thousands of years younger than the surrounding host sediment. Together with detailed X-ray radiograph studies this shows that the trace maker collects the material on the seafloor, and then transports it downwards up to more than one meter in to the underlying sediment where it is deposited in distinct structures termed spreiten. This clearly shows that age reversals of several thousands of years can be expected whenever Zoophycos is unknowingly sampled. These results also render the hitherto proposed ethological models proposed for Zoophycos as largely implausible. Therefore, a combination of detritus feeding, short time caching, and hibernation possibly combined also with gardening, is suggested here as an explanation for this complicated burrow.

Analysis of residuals in contingency tables: another nail in the coffin of conditional approaches to significance testing.

Omnibus tests of significance in contingency tables use statistics of the chi-square type. When the null is rejected, residual analyses are conducted to identify cells in which observed frequencies differ significantly from expected frequencies. Residual analyses are thus conditioned on a significant omnibus test. Conditional approaches have been shown to substantially alter type I error rates in cases involving t tests conditional on the results of a test of equality of variances, or tests of regression coefficients conditional on the results of tests of heteroscedasticity. We show that residual analyses conditional on a significant omnibus test are also affected by this problem, yielding type I error rates that can be up to 6 times larger than nominal rates, depending on the size of the table and the form of the marginal distributions. We explored several unconditional approaches in search for a method that maintains the nominal type I error rate and found out that a bootstrap correction for multiple testing achieved this goal. The validity of this approach is documented for two-way contingency tables in the contexts of tests of independence, tests of homogeneity, and fitting psychometric functions. Computer code in MATLAB and R to conduct these analyses is provided as Supplementary Material.

Accounting for residential and non-residential environments to measure contextual effects on health behavior : the case of recreational walking behavior

Thèse réalisée en cotutelle entre l'Université de Montréal et l'Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 06, Sorbonne Universités.

The Effect of Authentic Literacy Experiences as Book Buddies with Hispanic Fourth Graders on Preservice Teachers’ Literacy Content Knowledge and Reading Maturity

From a sociocultural perspective, individuals learn best from contextualized experiences. In preservice teacher education, contextualized experiences include authentic literacy experiences, which include a real reader and writer and replicate real life communication. To be prepared to teach well, preservice teachers need to gain literacy content knowledge and possess reading maturity. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of authentic literacy experiences as Book Buddies with Hispanic fourth graders on preservice teachers’ literacy content knowledge and reading maturity. The study was a pretest/posttest design conducted over 12 weeks. Preservice teacher participants, the focus of the study, were elementary education majors taking the third of four required reading courses in non-probabilistic convenience groups, 43 (n = 33 experimental, n = 10 comparison) Elementary Education majors. The Survey of Preservice Teachers’ Knowledge of Teaching and Technology (SPTKTT), specifically designed for preservice teachers majoring in elementary or early childhood education and the Reading Maturity Survey (RMS) were used in this study. Preservice teachers chose either the experimental or comparison group based on the opportunity to earn extra credit points (experimental = 30 points, comparison = 15). After exchanging introductory letters preservice teachers and Hispanic fourth graders each read four books. After reading each book preservice teachers wrote letters to their student asking higher order thinking questions. Preservice teachers received scanned copies of their student’s unedited letters via email which enabled them to see their student’s authentic answers and writing levels. A series of analyses of covariance were used to determine whether there were significant differences in the dependent variables between the experimental and comparison groups. This quasi-experimental study tested two hypotheses. Using the appropriate pretest scores as covariates for adjusting the posttest means of the subcategory Literacy Content Knowledge (LCK), of the SPTKTT and the RMS, the mean adjusted posttest scores from the experimental group and comparison group were compared. No significant differences were found on the LCK dependent variable using the .05 level of significance, which may be due to Type II error caused by the small sample size. Significant differences were found on RMS using the .05 level of significance.

Elemental Analysis of Glass and Ink by Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)

The necessity of elemental analysis techniques to solve forensic problems continues to expand as the samples collected from crime scenes grow in complexity. Laser ablation ICP-MS (LA-ICP-MS) has been shown to provide a high degree of discrimination between samples that originate from different sources. In the first part of this research, two laser ablation ICP-MS systems were compared, one using a nanosecond laser and another a femtosecond laser source for the forensic analysis of glass. The results showed that femtosecond LA-ICP-MS did not provide significant improvements in terms of accuracy, precision and discrimination, however femtosecond LA-ICP-MS did provide lower detection limits. In addition, it was determined that even for femtosecond LA-ICP-MS an internal standard should be utilized to obtain accurate analytical results for glass analyses. In the second part, a method using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the forensic analysis of glass was shown to provide excellent discrimination for a glass set consisting of 41 automotive fragments. The discrimination power was compared to two of the leading elemental analysis techniques, µXRF and LA-ICP-MS, and the results were similar; all methods generated >99% discrimination and the pairs found indistinguishable were similar. An extensive data analysis approach for LIBS glass analyses was developed to minimize Type I and II errors en route to a recommendation of 10 ratios to be used for glass comparisons. Finally, a LA-ICP-MS method for the qualitative analysis and discrimination of gel ink sources was developed and tested for a set of ink samples. In the first discrimination study, qualitative analysis was used to obtain 95.6% discrimination for a blind study consisting of 45 black gel ink samples provided by the United States Secret Service. A 0.4% false exclusion (Type I) error rate and a 3.9% false inclusion (Type II) error rate was obtained for this discrimination study. In the second discrimination study, 99% discrimination power was achieved for a black gel ink pen set consisting of 24 self collected samples. The two pairs found to be indistinguishable came from the same source of origin (the same manufacturer and type of pen purchased in different locations). It was also found that gel ink from the same pen, regardless of the age, was indistinguishable as were gel ink pens (four pens) originating from the same pack.

(Table 1) Strontium isotopic ratios of interstitial waters from ODP Leg 125 holes

The strontium isotopic data presented here are from interstitial waters squeezed from unconsolidated serpentine, an unusual type of substrate that was recovered from Mariana and Bonin forearc seamounts and has not been previously drilled by the Deep Sea Drilling Project or Ocean Drilling Program. The texture and composition of some of these serpentine deposits from Conical Seamount, located on the Mariana forearc, indicate emplacement as low- or high-viscosity, cold gravitational flows, which are therefore neither sediment nor igneous rock. The strontium isotopic ratios of the interstitial waters from the unconsolidated serpentine range from 0.70912 to 0.70525 and trend toward a relatively less radiogenic composition with increasing sub-bottom depth. These strontium isotopic ratios are derived from at least two strontium sources: seawater and igneous. The strontium isotopic gradients from the interstitial waters from the Leg 125 sites are probably the result of diffusive transport of strontium from an igneous source deep within the lithosphere that may be contaminated with subducted or underplated sediment.

Presence of competitors influences photosynthesis, but not growth, of the hard coral Porites cylindrica at elevated seawater CO2

Changes in environmental conditions, such as those caused by elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), potentially alter the outcome of competitive interactions between species. This study aimed to understand how elevated CO2 could influence competitive interactions between hard and soft corals, by investigating growth and photosynthetic activity of Porites cylindrica (a hard coral) under elevated CO2 and in the presence of another hard coral and two soft coral competitors. Corals were collected from reefs around Orpheus and Pelorus Islands on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. They were then exposed to elevated pCO2 for 4 weeks with two CO2 treatments: intermediate (pCO2 648) and high (pCO2 1003) compared with a control (unmanipulated seawater) treatment (pCO2 358). Porites cylindrica growth did not vary among pCO2 treatments, regardless of the presence and type of competitors, nor was the growth of another hard coral species, Acropora cerealis, affected by pCO2 treatment. Photosynthetic rates of P. cylindrica were sensitive to variations in pCO2, and varied between the side of the fragment facing the competitors vs. the side facing away from the competitor. However, variation in photosynthetic rates depended on pCO2 treatment, competitor identity, and whether the photosynthetic yields were measured as maximum or effective photosynthetic yield. This study suggests that elevated CO2 may impair photosynthetic activity, but not growth, of a hard coral under competition and confirms the hypothesis that soft corals are generally resistant to elevated CO2. Overall, our results indicate that shifts in the species composition in coral communities as a result of elevated CO2 could be more strongly related to the individual tolerance of different species rather than a result of competitive interactions between species.

Analysis of the Bovespa Futures and Spot Indexes With High Frequency Data. Chinese Business Review

Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil’s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built: ARFIMA, vector autoregressive (VAR), and vector error correction (VEC). Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.

Error Recovery Performance: The Impact of Leader Behavioral Integrity and Job Satisfaction

This article introduces the concept of error recovery performance, followed by the development and validation of an instrument to measure it. The first objective of this article is to broaden the current concept of service recovery to be relevant to the back-of-house operations. The second objective is to examine the influence of leader behavioral integrity (BI) on error recovery performance. Moreover, the study examines the mediating effect of job satisfaction between BI and error recovery performance. Finally, the study links error management performance with work-unit effectiveness. Data for Study 1 were collected from 369 hotel employees in Turkey. The same relationships were tested again in Study 2 to validate the findings of Study 1 with a different sample. Data for Study 2 were collected from 33 departmental managers from the same hotels. Linear regression analysis was used to test the direct effects. The mediating effects were tested using the mediation test suggested by Preacher and Hayes. In addition, in Study 2, general managers of the hotels were asked to rate the effectiveness of each manager and their respective department. Results from Study 1 indicate that BI drives error recovery performance, and this impact is mediated by employee job satisfaction. Results of Study 2 confirm this model and finds further that managers’ self-rated error recovery performance was associated with their general managers’ assessment of their deliverables and of their department’s overall performance.