Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.

Metric Training for the Transportation Industry Module IV - Transportation Planning and Traffic Monitoring, HR-376

"Metric Training For The Highway Industry", HR-376 was designed to produce training materials for the various divisions of the Iowa DOT, local government and the highway construction industry. The project materials were to be used to introduce the highway industry in Iowa to metric measurements in their daily activities. Five modules were developed and used in training over 1,000 DOT, county, city, consultant and contractor staff in the use of metric measurements. The training modules developed deal with the planning through operation areas of highway transportation. The materials and selection of modules were developed with the aid of an advisory personnel from the highway industry. Each module is design as a four hour block of instruction and a stand along module for specific types of personnel. Each module is subdivided into four chapters with chapter one and four covering general topics common to all subjects. Chapters two and three are aimed at hands on experience for a specific group and subject. This module includes: Module 4 - Transportation Planning and Traffic Monitoring. Hands on examples of applications of metric measurements in the development of planning reports and traffic data collection are included in this module.

Evaluation of Gateway and Low-Cost Traffic-Calming Treatments for Major Routes in Small, Rural Communities, TR-523, 2007

Many rural communities have developed around highways or major county roads; as a result, the main street through small rural communities is often part of a high-speed rural highway. Highways and county roads are characterized by high speeds outside the city limits; they then transition into a reduced speed section through the rural community. Consequently, drivers passing through the community often enter at high speeds and maintain those speeds as they travel through the community. Traffic calming in small rural communities along major roadways is common in Europe, but the U.S. does not have experience with applying traffic-calming measures outside of major urban areas. The purpose of the project was to evaluate traffic-calming treatments on the major road through small Iowa communities using either single-measure low-cost or gateway treatments. The project was partially funded by the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB). The focus of the IHRB portion was to evaluate single-measure, low-cost, traffic-calming measures that are appropriate to major roads through small rural communities. Seven different low-cost traffic treatments were implemented and evaluated in five rural Iowa communities. The research evaluated the use of two gateway treatments in Union and Roland; five single-measure treatments (speed table, on-pavement “SLOW” markings, a driver speed feedback sign, tubular markers, and on-pavement entrance treatments) were evaluated in Gilbert, Slater, and Dexter.

Comparison of methods for estimation of needle losses in Scots pine following defoliation by Bupalus piniaria

Abstract

Design and Operation of the Traffic Simulator, HR-100, 1967

Heavy traffic volumes frequently cause distress in asphalt pavements which were designed under accepted design methods and criteria. The distress appears in the form of rutting in the wheel tracks and rippling or shoving in areas where traffic accelerates or decelerates. Apparently accepted stability test methods alone do not always assure the desired service performance of asphaltic pavements under heavy traffic. The Bituminous Research Laboratory, Engineering Research Institute of Iowa State University undertook the development of a laboratory device by which the resistance of an asphalt paving mix to displacement under traffic might be evaluated, and also be used as a supplemental test to determine adequacy of design of the mix by stability procedures.

Service Correlation of the Traffic Simulator, HR-100, 1967

A study was undertaken by the Bituminous Research Laboratory of the Engineering Research Institute at Iowa State University, under the sponsorship of the Iowa Highway Research Board, project HR 100, to ascertain the effects of a number of characteristics and properties of asphaltic concrete mixes upon the service behavior of the mixes as evaluated by the Traffic Simulator and by field observations. The study included: Investigations of the relations, of gradation, fraction and resistance to wear of aggregates; of stability, cohesion, per cent voids and asphalt content: of a number of laboratory and field mixes to service behavior as indicated by the Traffic Simulator under various test conditions. Based upon the results of the tests and the relationships noted, tentative criteria for the Traffic Simulator test were devised, subject to verification by observations and measurements of field service behavior of the mixes.

Fish Glucose Transporter (GLUT)-4 Differs from Rat GLUT4 in Its Traffic Characteristics but Can Translocate to the Cell Surface in Response to Insulin in Skeletal Muscle Cells

In mammals, glucose transporter (GLUT)-4 plays an important role in glucose homeostasis mediating insulin action to increase glucose uptake in insulin-responsive tissues. In the basal state, GLUT4 is located in intracellular compartments and upon insulin stimulation is recruited to the plasma membrane, allowing glucose entry into the cell. Compared with mammals, fish are less efficient restoring plasma glucose after dietary or exogenous glucose administration. Recently our group cloned a GLUT4-homolog in skeletal muscle from brown trout (btGLUT4) that differs in protein motifs believed to be important for endocytosis and sorting of mammalian GLUT4. To study the traffic of btGLUT4, we generated a stable L6 muscle cell line overexpressing myc-tagged btGLUT4 (btGLUT4myc). Insulin stimulated btGLUT4myc recruitment to the cell surface, although to a lesser extent than rat-GLUT4myc, and enhanced glucose uptake. Interestingly, btGLUT4myc showed a higher steady-state level at the cell surface under basal conditions than rat-GLUT4myc due to a higher rate of recycling of btGLUT4myc and not to a slower endocytic rate, compared with rat-GLUT4myc. Furthermore, unlike rat-GLUT4myc, btGLUT4myc had a diffuse distribution throughout the cytoplasm of L6 myoblasts. In primary brown trout skeletal muscle cells, insulin also promoted the translocation of endogenous btGLUT4 to the plasma membrane and enhanced glucose transport. Moreover, btGLUT4 exhibited a diffuse intracellular localization in unstimulated trout myocytes. Our data suggest that btGLUT4 is subjected to a different intracellular traffic from rat-GLUT4 and may explain the relative glucose intolerance observed in fish.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.

Estimation du degré de couverture d'un registre pour les cancers notifiés au décès [Evaluation of the comprehensiveness of a cancer register from death certificates].

The comparison of cancer prevalence with cancer mortality can lead under some hypotheses to an estimate of registration rate. A method is proposed, where the cases with cancer as a cause of death are divided into 3 categories: (1) cases already known by the registry (2) unknown cases having occured before the registry creation date (3) unknown cases occuring during the registry operates. The estimate is then the number of cases in the first category divided by the total of those in categories 1 and 3 (these only are to be registered). An application is performed on the data of the Canton de Vaud. Survival rates of the Norvegian Cancer Registry are used for computing the number of unknown cases to be included in second and third category, respectively. The discussion focusses on the possible determinants of the obtained comprehensiveness rates for various cancer sites.

An Assessment of Traffic Safety in Urban Deer Herd Management Zones in Iowa, 2010

Many states are striving to keep their deer population to a sustainable and controllable level while maximizing public safety. In Iowa, measures to control the deer population include annual deer hunts and special deer herd management plans in urban areas. While these plans may reduce the deer population, traffic safety in these areas has not been fully assessed. Using deer population data from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and data on deer-vehicle crashes and deer carcass removals from the Iowa Department of Transportation, the authors examined the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions, deer density, and land use in three urban areas in Iowa that have deer management plans in place (Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, and Iowa City) over the period 2002 to 2007. First, a comparison of deer-vehicle crash counts and deer carcass removal counts was conducted at the county level. Further, the authors estimated econometric models to investigate the factors that influence the frequency and severity of deer-vehicle crashes in these zones. Overall, the number of deer carcasses removed on the primary roads in these counties was greater than the number of reported deervehicle crashes on those roads. These differences can be attributed to a number of reasons, including variability in data reporting and data collection practices. In addition, high rates of underreporting of crashes were found on major routes that carry high volumes of traffic. This study also showed that multiple factors affect deer-vehicle crashes and corresponding injury outcomes in urban management zones. The identified roadway and non-roadway factors could be useful for identifying locations on the transportation system that significantly impact deer species and safety and for determining appropriate countermeasures for mitigation. Efforts to reduce deer density adjacent to roads and developed land and to provide wider shoulders on undivided roads are recommended. Improving the consistency and accuracy of deer carcass and deer-vehicle collision data collection methods and practices is also desirable.

A Survey of Traffic Safety Culture Among Iowa Adults, TS-1101, 2012

Iowa’s traffic safety culture is influenced by laws and policies, enforcement methods, driver education, roadway engineering, and drivers’ behaviors. The Center for Social and Behavioral Research at the University of Northern Iowa was contracted by the Iowa Department of Transportation to conduct a general population survey of adult Iowans. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,088 adult Iowans from October to December 2011. A dual-frame (cell phone and landline) sampling design was used. The interview covered a wide range of traffic safety topics (e.g., traffic safety policies, enforcement techniques, and distracted driving). Most Iowans said driving in Iowa is about as safe now as it was 5 years ago; however, one-fourth said driving in Iowa is less safe now. There are a number of driving-related behaviors many adult Iowans consider serious threats to traffic safety and never acceptable to do while driving. Yet, many Iowans report often seeing other drivers engaging in these behaviors and admit engaging in some themselves. For example, nearly 1 in 5 adult Iowa drivers said they have sent or read a text message or email while driving in the past 30 days despite this being prohibited since July of 2011. A slight majority said they support using cameras on highways, interstates, and city streets to automatically ticket drivers for speeding, with even stronger support for red light cameras. A comprehensive approach to traffic safety in Iowa is required to encourage protective factors that enhance traffic safety and reduce the impact of detrimental factors.

The estimation of PMP and PMF on alpine basins in Switzerland

This paper presents a very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of precipitation and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the flood on a catchment area, using a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) leading to a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flows, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the exfiltration and the snowmelt. This model was applied to several Swiss basins using measured rain, with results showing a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation proves that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type. In this article we present some results obtained using a PMP rainfall and the developed model.