Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

Extension And Testing Of A 2D Hydrodynamic Model For Direct Rainfall Runoff Simulation

While the simulation of flood risks originating from the overtopping of river banks is well covered within continuously evaluated programs to improve flood protection measures, flash flooding is not. Flash floods are triggered by short, local thunderstorm cells with high precipitation intensities. Small catchments have short response times and flow paths and convective thunder cells may result in potential flooding of endangered settlements. Assessing local flooding and pathways of flood requires a detailed hydraulic simulation of the surface runoff. Hydrological models usually do not incorporate surface runoff at this detailedness but rather empirical equations are applied for runoff detention. In return 2D hydrodynamic models usually do not allow distributed rainfall as input nor are any types of soil/surface interaction implemented as in hydrological models. Considering several cases of local flash flooding during the last years the issue emerged for practical reasons but as well as research topics to closing the model gap between distributed rainfall and distributed runoff formation. Therefore, a 2D hydrodynamic model, depth-averaged flow equations using the finite volume discretization, was extended to accept direct rainfall enabling to simulate the associated runoff formation. The model itself is used as numerical engine, rainfall is introduced via the modification of waterlevels at fixed time intervals. The paper not only deals with the general application of the software, but intends to test the numerical stability and reliability of simulation results. The performed tests are made using different artificial as well as measured rainfall series as input. Key parameters of the simulation such as losses, roughness or time intervals for water level manipulations are tested regarding their impact on the stability.

Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

Delaware Reservoirs’ Drought Risk Assessment: A Paleo View

The Delaware River provides half of New York City's drinking water, is a habitat for wild trout, American shad and the federally endangered dwarf wedge mussel. It has suffered four 100‐year floods in the last seven years. A drought during the 1960s stands as a warning of the potential vulnerability of the New York City area to severe water shortages if a similar drought were to recur. The water releases from three New York City dams on the Delaware River's headwaters impact not only the reliability of the city’s water supply, but also the potential impact of floods, and the quality of the aquatic habitat in the upper river. The goal of this work is to influence the Delaware River water release policies (FFMP/OST) to further benefit river habitat and fisheries without increasing New York City's drought risk, or the flood risk to down basin residents. The Delaware water release policies are constrained by the dictates of two US Supreme Court Decrees (1931 and 1954) and the need for unanimity among four states: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware ‐‐ and New York City. Coordination of their activities and the operation under the existing decrees is provided by the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC). Questions such as the probability of the system approaching drought state based on the current FFMP plan and the severity of the 1960s drought are addressed using long record paleo‐reconstructions of flows. For this study, we developed reconstructed total annual flows (water year) for 3 reservoir inflows using regional tree rings going back upto 1754 (a total of 246 years). The reconstructed flows are used with a simple reservoir model to quantify droughts. We observe that the 1960s drought is by far the worst drought based on 246 years of simulations (since 1754).

Estudo experimental de microrreservatórios para controle do escoamento superficial

O crescimento desordenado das cidades tem gerado muitos problemas de infraestrutura e impactos ao meio ambiente. No que se refere aos recursos hídricos, problemas de abastecimento, poluição e enchentes são cada vez mais constantes. À medida que a cidade se urbaniza e se impermeabiliza, vários são os impactos que vão atuar no sentido de provocar ou agravar as enchentes urbanas. No caso da drenagem urbana é preciso repensar o que vem sendo feito, buscando soluções alternativas às atualmente apresentadas, uma vez que estas não têm se mostrado eficientes. Uma possível solução para estes problemas é a aplicação de medidas de controle do escoamento na fonte, dentre elas o microrreservatório de detenção. Baseando-se na busca de soluções para os problemas citados, este trabalho tem o objetivo geral de verificar experimentalmente o funcionamento de microrreservatórios de detenção no controle da geração do escoamento superficial. Para isso foi construído um módulo experimental nas dependências do IPH, composto por um microrreservatório de 1m3, monitorado através de linígrafos que registram as vazões de entrada e saída, recebendo contribuição de uma área de 337,5m2. O período de monitoramento iniciou em agosto de 2000 e se estendeu até janeiro de 2001. De posse dos dados coletados foi possível fazer uma análise da eficiência deste dispositivo no controle do escoamento superficial, bem como estudar a real necessidade de manutenção da estrutura. Também foi feita uma análise do impacto da presença de sedimentos (folhagens) na água de escoamento nas estruturas de descarga. O trabalho também deixa uma contribuição no que se refere a critérios de projeto e dimensionamento de estruturas desta natureza. Finalmente foi possível concluir que o sistema é eficiente no controle da vazão de pico, porém o reservatório não permitiu um aumento no tempo de resposta da bacia.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Variação temporal da Comunidade de macroinvertebrados bentônicos em um riacho intermitente do semiárido brasileiro

In Brazilian semiarid region, the majority of water bodies are temporary and the biodiversity in these ecosystems is poorly known. The goal of this study was to describe the temporal variation of benthic macroinvertebrates in an intermittent stream in the Brazilian semiarid region. From March to July of 2009, surveys of benthic macroinvertebrates and water physiochemical parameters were done in a first order stream located at Piranhas-Açu River basin. 25 macroinvertebrates families were found, 21 belonging to Insecta class. The chironomids were the most abundant group during all study period and were represented by 19 genus. The largest densities and taxonomic richness were seen in the drying phase of the stream while the smallest values were found in the period with the heaviest rainfalls ( wet phase ). Only the families Chironomidae and Ceratopogonidae were found during all study period, suggesting that these groups have better adaptations to support floods and droughts. Furthermore, these two groups seemed to be pioneering in this stream. Among the chironomids, Paratendipes dominated the period of floods while Tanytarsus were more abundant in the drying phase . This study showed that hydrological fluctuation is the main force influencing the macroinvertebrate community in this stream, therefore, efforts seeking the conservation and management of Brazilian semiarid water bodies should consider this high natural variability in flow regime

Efetividade da doxiciclina na profilaxia contra letptospirose

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis of considerable medical and economical importance that affects humans in both urban and rural contexts, as well as domestic animals and wild fauna. Leptospira interrogans is the causative agent and is transmitted to humans by indirect contact with contaminated soil or water. The clinical syndromes include sub clinical infection, self-limited anicteric febrile illness, and severe and potentially fatal illness, known as Weil´s syndrome. In developed countries, leptospirosis is related to occupational or recreational activities while in developing countries, outbreaks occur during floods. In those regions, traditional strategies to prevent the transmission are difficulties to be implemented because of costs and lack of community acceptance. In addition, no efficient vaccine is available for human use. Several studies have suggested that chemoprophylaxis with doxycycline pre and post-exposure may be effective to prevent leptospirosis. Leptospirosis has been reported in rural areas of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil since 1985 in rice farmers who present the anicteric illness. The disease cause great social and economics impact. The study was conducted in São Miguel where an epidemic of leptospirosis in rice farmers was reported. The main objective was to determine the efficacy of doxycycline in preventing Leptospira exposure. A taxa de soroprevalência de leptospirose na população estudada antes e após a colheita foi de 14,2% (n=22) e de 16.6% (n=27) respectivamente. Anti-Leptospira serology was determined for 61 subjects in two instances, pre and post-exposure to potential contaminated water. There was an increased risk of 29.0 per cent in acquiring infection for individuals that did not use doxycycline. In addition, an increased risk of 30.0 % observed in farmers who did not use protection when exposed to Leptospira. The adhesion to preventive chemoprophylaxis was 55.7%. Therefore doxycycline, under specific circunstances appears to be an effective alternative to protect against leptosprirosis infection. A large sample composed of individuals to adhere to preventive therapy is needed to define time, dosage and length of use of doxycycline in this area

Estudo paramétrico da recuperação de óleo no processo de drenagem gravitacional com injeção de CO2

The gas injection has become the most important IOR process in the United States. Furthermore, the year 2006 marks the first time the gas injection IOR production has surpassed that of steam injection. In Brazil, the installation of a petrochemical complex in the Northeast of Brazil (Bahia State) offers opportunities for the injection of gases in the fields located in the Recôncavo Basin. Field-scale gas injection applications have almost always been associated with design and operational difficulties. The mobility ratio, which controls the volumetric sweep, between the injected gas and displaced oil bank in gas processes, is typically unfavorable due to the relatively low viscosity of the injected gas. Furthermore, the difference between their densities results in severe gravity segregation of fluids in the reservoirs, consequently leading to poor control in the volumetric sweep. Nowadays, from the above applications of gas injection, the WAG process is most popular. However, in attempting to solve the mobility problems, the WAG process gives rise to other problems associated with increased water saturation in the reservoir including diminished gas injectivity and increased competition to the flow of oil. The low field performance of WAG floods with oil recoveries in the range of 5-10% is a clear indication of these problems. In order to find na effective alternative to WAG, the Gas Assisted Gravity Drainage (GAGD) was developed. This process is designed to take advantage of gravity force to allow vertical segregation between the injected CO2 and reservoir crude oil due to their density difference. This process consists of placing horizontal producers near the bottom of the pay zone and injecting gás through existing vertical wells in field. Homogeneous models were used in this work which can be extrapolated to commercial application for fields located in the Northeast of Brazil. The simulations were performed in a CMG simulator, the STARS 2007.11, where some parameters and their interactions were analyzed. The results have shown that the CO2 injection in GAGD process increased significantly the rate and the final recovery of oil

Análise paramétrica da simulação composicional do processo de Drenagem Gravitacional Assistida por Gás (GAGD)

In Brazil and around the world, oil companies are looking for, and expected development of new technologies and processes that can increase the oil recovery factor in mature reservoirs, in a simple and inexpensive way. So, the latest research has developed a new process called Gas Assisted Gravity Drainage (GAGD) which was classified as a gas injection IOR. The process, which is undergoing pilot testing in the field, is being extensively studied through physical scale models and core-floods laboratory, due to high oil recoveries in relation to other gas injection IOR. This process consists of injecting gas at the top of a reservoir through horizontal or vertical injector wells and displacing the oil, taking advantage of natural gravity segregation of fluids, to a horizontal producer well placed at the bottom of the reservoir. To study this process it was modeled a homogeneous reservoir and a model of multi-component fluid with characteristics similar to light oil Brazilian fields through a compositional simulator, to optimize the operational parameters. The model of the process was simulated in GEM (CMG, 2009.10). The operational parameters studied were the gas injection rate, the type of gas injection, the location of the injector and production well. We also studied the presence of water drive in the process. The results showed that the maximum vertical spacing between the two wells, caused the maximum recovery of oil in GAGD. Also, it was found that the largest flow injection, it obtained the largest recovery factors. This parameter controls the speed of the front of the gas injected and determined if the gravitational force dominates or not the process in the recovery of oil. Natural gas had better performance than CO2 and that the presence of aquifer in the reservoir was less influential in the process. In economic analysis found that by injecting natural gas is obtained more economically beneficial than CO2

Mapeamento geoambiental do campo de dunas Pirangi-Potengi com ênfase a San Vale e Lagoinha Natal/RN: um instrumento de apoio ao planejamento ambiental

The city of Natal-RN is constructed on dune areas with wavy relives softly waved and green areas that help to keep a pleasant climate, amongst these is distinguished field Pirangi-Potengi the dune with the areas of San Vale and Lagoinha. These environments are being substituted gradual for property and other workmanships of engineering on behalf of the urban expansion. This study the elaboration of a geoambiental mapping of Field had as objective generality Pirangi-Potengi the Dune with emphasis the San Vale and Lagoinha in Natal-RN. The done mapping had as objective specific to elaborate a vegetation map, a map of registers in cadastre of ambient problems to dunes, a map of flooding susceptibility, a map of vulnerability to the underground water contamination and a map of use and occupation of the ground. Of the carried through analysis, the area in study reveals sufficiently degraded, remaining only few green areas and dunares, as well as, the vulnerable presence of areas of vulnerability in floods and areas the contamination of the water-bearing one. The gotten results allow to affirm that this type of mapping, is of great importance for analysis and evaluation of the environment of the city

Uso urbano não potável de água de lagoas do sistema de drenagem de Natal

The detention and infiltration ponds of urban drainage system has function to protect the population from undesirable effects of floods. In general these ponds are not completly used and it potential is wasted. As it are disseminated at different places at cities it can reduce costs with water transport and permit water preservation of best quality. Some it utilities includes use in green areas irrigation, industrial among than cooling towers and boiler, soil compaction, cleaning urban road, pisciculture and fire fighting system. The quality these water is influenced by anauthorized sewage in the drainage system. This study was performed in six detention and infiltration ponds at drainage system of Natal, which aim was to verify the non-portable use these ponds on urban environment. As indirect aim would to incentive the water utilization these ponds as a water source to another uses in urban environment. These ponds represents the characteristics of detention and infiltration of Natal city and consequently of Brazil. As the water quality, the ponds presents following characteristics: three has apparently good quality, other showed intermediate condition and two had water polluted. Were performed twenty sample in each ponds and the following parameters assessed: pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, electrical conductivity, coliform thermotolerant, ammonia, organic nitrogen, TKN, nitrate, total phosphorus and alkalinity, bicarbonate, chloride, total hardness, calcium and magnesium hardness, total solids, TSS, TDS, COD and SAR°. To utilization on pisciculture we recommend use in ponds which presents the best quality. Only one pond presented higher pollutants and it not being appropriated for use in cooling tower. The content of solids suspension restricted the water use in all ponds in boilers. As water use in soil compaction, cleaning urban road and fire fighting system the water from these ponds are not appropriated. However, the recommended limits from literature are to domestic sewage, due to this, the parameters are restrictive to diminish the sanitary risk that could be offered with it utilization. The infiltration velocity of water these assessed ponds restrict a moderato use, however the effects are potentiated only in soil less sandy, which not occur in Natal. It is recommend the unrestricted irrigation utilization in ponds with best quality of water, and a restricted irrigation to ponds with worst quality of water. As load of pollutants, it is recommended a complementary treatment in those ponds whit higher load to diminish sanitary risks. In only one pond was found one helminth eggs and due to the convention formula of results, it was found for all ponds less than 1 helminth/liter eggs.

Análise da precipitação no semi-árido potiguar

The semiarid rainfall regime is northeastern Brazil is highly variable. Climate processes associated with rainfall are complex and their effects may represent extreme situations of drought or floods, which can have adverse effects on society and the environment. The regional economy has a significant agricultural component, which is strongly influenced by weather conditions. Maximum precipitation analysis is traditionally performed using the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) probabilistic approach. Results from such analysis are typically used in engineering projects involving hydraulic structures such as drainage network systems and road structures. On the other hand, precipitation data analysis may require the adoption of some kind of event identification criteria. The minimum inter-event duration (IMEE) is one of the most used criteria. This study aims to analyze the effect of the IMEE on the obtained rain event properties. For this purpose, a nine-year precipitation time series (2002- 2011) was used. This data was obtained from an automatic raingauge station, installed in an environmentally protected area, Ecological Seridó Station. The results showed that adopted IMEE values has an important effect on the number of events, duration, event height, mean rainfall rate and mean inter-event duration. Furthermore, a higher occurrence of extreme events was observed for small IMEE values. Most events showed average rainfall intensity higher than 2 mm.h-1 regardless of IMEE. The storm coefficient of advance was, in most cases, within the first quartile of the event, regardless of the IMEE value. Time series analysis using partial time series made it possible to adjust the IDF equations to local characteristics

A gestão da qualidade nos cursos de graduação a distância da UFRN/SEDIS : a percepção dos discentes

The management of water resources in the river basin level, as it defines the Law nº 9433/97, requires the effective knowledge of the processes of hydrological basin, resulting from studies based on consistent series of hydrological data that reflect the characteristics of the basin. In this context, the objective of this work was to develop the modeling of catchment basin of the river Jundiaí - RN and carry out the study of attenuation of a flood of the dam Tabatinga, by means of a monitoring project of hydrological data and climatology of the basin, with a view to promoting the development of research activities by applying methodologies unified and appropriate for the assessment of hydrological studies in the transition region of the semiarid and the forest zone on the coast of Rio Grande do Norte. For the study of the hydrological characteristics of the basin was conducted the automatic design of the basin of the river Jundiaí, with the aid of programs of geoprocessing, was adopted a hydrological model daily, the NRCS, which is a model determined and concentrated. For the use of this model was necessary to determine some parameters that are used in this model, as the Curve Number. Having in mind that this is the first study that is being conducted in the basin with the employment of this model, it was made sensitivity analysis of the results of this model from the adoption of different values of CN, situated within a range appropriate to the conditions of use, occupation and the nature of the soil of this basin. As the objective of this study was also developing a simulation model of the operation of the Tabatinga dam and with this flood control caused in the city of Macaíba, it was developed a mathematical model of fluid balance, developed to be used in Microsoft Excel. The simulation was conducted in two phases: the first step was promoted the water balance daily that allowed the analysis of the sensitivity of the model in relation to the volume of waiting, as well as the determination of the period of greatest discharges daily averages. From this point, it was assumed for the second stage, which was in the determination of the hydrograph of discharges effluent slots, that was determined by means of the fluid balance time, on the basis of the discharges effluents generated by a mathematical equation whose parameters were adjusted according to the hydrograph daily. Through the analyzes it was realized that the dam Tabatinga only has how to carry out the attenuation of floods through the regularization of the volume of waiting, with this there is a loss of approximately 56.5% on storage capacity of this dam, because for causing the attenuation effect of filled the shell of this dam has to remain more than 5m below the level of the sill, representing at least 50.582.927m3. The results obtained with the modeling represents a first step in the direction of improving the level of hydrological information about the behavior of the basins of the semiarid. In order to monitor quantitatively the hydrographic basin of the river Jundiaí will be necessary to install a rain gauge register, next to the Tabatinga dam and a pressure transducer, for regular measurements of flow in the reservoir of the dam. The climatological data will be collected in full automatic weather station installed in Agricultural School Jundiaí

Inundações urbanas no semiarido nordestino: o caso da cidade de Pau dos Ferros - RN

The Apodi river basin, particularly within the snippet that crosses Pau dos Ferros - RN city, place anthropogenic actions that interfere in the dynamic environment by modifying the local landscape. The reflection of these actions can be seen in the floods that occur in rainy periods (February to may) virtually every year in the city. It is important to stress that the project of integration of the waters of the San Francisco basin with the northern basin of Northeastern will perennial the main channel of the river basin, and generate greater impacts in the region. This work sought to define a methodology able to delimit areas susceptible to flooding in cities of semiarid Northeast based on the Pau dos Ferros RN city. The dissertation is divided into two chapters and introduction. The introduction presents a theoretical frame based on discussion of the concept of risk, their main characteristics and subdivisions; floods; geotecnologies; Apodi River basin; municipal data Pau dos Ferros RN and design integration of Francisco basin with the northern basins Northeast. The first chapter evaluates the urban expansion process between 1987 and 2008, delimiting the flood areas and analyzes the relationship between urban growth and retention areas. The second chapter identifies the flood risk areas in the Pau dos Ferros city. The methodology used was based on tools of geographic information system GIS from software SPRING/INPE 5.1, as well as bibliographical, satellite images, aerial photographs and field activities. The results obtained enabled view the rapid expansion of the urban area of Pau dos Ferros, which has doubled in a period of 22 years. The population density checks with greater intensity in South-central portion of the city, in flood areas and not flood (Cap. 01). It was noted also that some neighborhoods along the River Apodi are susceptible to more instances of flooding ranging from minimum to maximum, while in neighborhoods near the Riacho Cajazeiras floods occur to a lesser extent because of altimetry higher and lower water volume. (Cap. 02). It is expected that this work will help in the preparation of flood risk municipal map subsidising managers in implementing public policies targeted to the softening of urban flood-related issues in Pau dos Ferros RN and serve as a model for mapping of other cities with similar characteristics analyzed in this work