Adiposity, hormone replacement therapy use and breast cancer risk by age and hormone receptor status: a large prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION Associations of hormone-receptor positive breast cancer with excess adiposity are reasonably well characterized; however, uncertainty remains regarding the association of body mass index (BMI) with hormone-receptor negative malignancies, and possible interactions by hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use. METHODS Within the European EPIC cohort, Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the relationship of BMI, waist and hip circumferences with risk of estrogen-receptor (ER) negative and progesterone-receptor (PR) negative (n = 1,021) and ER+PR+ (n = 3,586) breast tumors within five-year age bands. Among postmenopausal women, the joint effects of BMI and HRT use were analyzed. RESULTS For risk of ER-PR- tumors, there was no association of BMI across the age bands. However, when analyses were restricted to postmenopausal HRT never users, a positive risk association with BMI (third versus first tertile HR = 1.47 (1.01 to 2.15)) was observed. BMI was inversely associated with ER+PR+ tumors among women aged ≤49 years (per 5 kg/m2 increase, HR = 0.79 (95%CI 0.68 to 0.91)), and positively associated with risk among women ≥65 years (HR = 1.25 (1.16 to 1.34)). Adjusting for BMI, waist and hip circumferences showed no further associations with risks of breast cancer subtypes. Current use of HRT was significantly associated with an increased risk of receptor-negative (HRT current use compared to HRT never use HR: 1.30 (1.05 to 1.62)) and positive tumors (HR: 1.74 (1.56 to 1.95)), although this risk increase was weaker for ER-PR- disease (Phet = 0.035). The association of HRT was significantly stronger in the leaner women (BMI ≤22.5 kg/m2) than for more overweight women (BMI ≥25.9 kg/m2) for, both, ER-PR- (HR: 1.74 (1.15 to 2.63)) and ER+PR+ (HR: 2.33 (1.84 to 2.92)) breast cancer and was not restricted to any particular HRT regime. CONCLUSIONS An elevated BMI may be positively associated with risk of ER-PR- tumors among postmenopausal women who never used HRT. Furthermore, postmenopausal HRT users were at an increased risk of ER-PR- as well as ER+PR+ tumors, especially among leaner women. For hormone-receptor positive tumors, but not for hormone-receptor negative tumors, our study confirms an inverse association of risk with BMI among young women of premenopausal age. Our data provide evidence for a possible role of sex hormones in the etiology of hormone-receptor negative tumors.

Multiple miscarriages are associated with the risk of ovarian cancer: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

While the risk of ovarian cancer clearly reduces with each full-term pregnancy, the effect of incomplete pregnancies is unclear. We investigated whether incomplete pregnancies (miscarriages and induced abortions) are associated with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer. This observational study was carried out in female participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). A total of 274,442 women were followed from 1992 until 2010. The baseline questionnaire elicited information on miscarriages and induced abortions, reproductive history, and lifestyle-related factors. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 1,035 women were diagnosed with incident epithelial ovarian cancer. Despite the lack of an overall association (ever vs. never), risk of ovarian cancer was higher among women with multiple incomplete pregnancies (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.74, 95% CI: 1.20-2.70; number of cases in this category: n = 23). This association was particularly evident for multiple miscarriages (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.99, 95% CI: 1.06-3.73; number of cases in this category: n = 10), with no significant association for multiple induced abortions (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.46, 95% CI: 0.68-3.14; number of cases in this category: n = 7). Our findings suggest that multiple miscarriages are associated with an increased risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, possibly through a shared cluster of etiological factors or a common underlying pathology. These findings should be interpreted with caution as this is the first study to show this association and given the small number of cases in the highest exposure categories.

Dietary fibre intake and risks of cancers of the colon and rectum in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC).

BACKGROUND Earlier analyses within the EPIC study showed that dietary fibre intake was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk, but results from some large cohort studies do not support this finding. We explored whether the association remained after longer follow-up with a near threefold increase in colorectal cancer cases, and if the association varied by gender and tumour location. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS After a mean follow-up of 11.0 years, 4,517 incident cases of colorectal cancer were documented. Total, cereal, fruit, and vegetable fibre intakes were estimated from dietary questionnaires at baseline. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models stratified by age, sex, and centre, and adjusted for total energy intake, body mass index, physical activity, smoking, education, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, oral contraceptive use, and intakes of alcohol, folate, red and processed meats, and calcium. After multivariable adjustments, total dietary fibre was inversely associated with colorectal cancer (HR per 10 g/day increase in fibre 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79-0.96). Similar linear associations were observed for colon and rectal cancers. The association between total dietary fibre and risk of colorectal cancer risk did not differ by age, sex, or anthropometric, lifestyle, and dietary variables. Fibre from cereals and fibre from fruit and vegetables were similarly associated with colon cancer; but for rectal cancer, the inverse association was only evident for fibre from cereals. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results strengthen the evidence for the role of high dietary fibre intake in colorectal cancer prevention.

Tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes in Europe: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND In previous meta-analyses, tea consumption has been associated with lower incidence of type 2 diabetes. It is unclear, however, if tea is associated inversely over the entire range of intake. Therefore, we investigated the association between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes in a European population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centers in 8 European countries and consists of a total of 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,835 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. Country-specific Hazard Ratios (HR) for incidence of type 2 diabetes were obtained after adjustment for lifestyle and dietary factors using a Cox regression adapted for a case-cohort design. Subsequently, country-specific HR were combined using a random effects meta-analysis. Tea consumption was studied as categorical variable (0, >0-<1, 1-<4, ≥ 4 cups/day). The dose-response of the association was further explored by restricted cubic spline regression. Country specific medians of tea consumption ranged from 0 cups/day in Spain to 4 cups/day in United Kingdom. Tea consumption was associated inversely with incidence of type 2 diabetes; the HR was 0.84 [95%CI 0.71, 1.00] when participants who drank ≥ 4 cups of tea per day were compared with non-drinkers (p(linear trend) = 0.04). Incidence of type 2 diabetes already tended to be lower with tea consumption of 1-<4 cups/day (HR = 0.93 [95%CI 0.81, 1.05]). Spline regression did not suggest a non-linear association (p(non-linearity) = 0.20). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE A linear inverse association was observed between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes. People who drink at least 4 cups of tea per day may have a 16% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes than non-tea drinkers.

Determinants of non- response to a second assessment of lifestyle factors and body weight in the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND This paper discusses whether baseline demographic, socio-economic, health variables, length of follow-up and method of contacting the participants predict non-response to the invitation for a second assessment of lifestyle factors and body weight in the European multi-center EPIC-PANACEA study. METHODS Over 500.000 participants from several centers in ten European countries recruited between 1992 and 2000 were contacted 2-11 years later to update data on lifestyle and body weight. Length of follow-up as well as the method of approaching differed between the collaborating study centers. Non-responders were compared with responders using multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS Overall response for the second assessment was high (81.6%). Compared to postal surveys, centers where the participants completed the questionnaire by phone attained a higher response. Response was also high in centers with a short follow-up period. Non-response was higher in participants who were male (odds ratio 1.09 (confidence interval 1.07; 1.11), aged under 40 years (1.96 (1.90; 2.02), living alone (1.40 (1.37; 1.43), less educated (1.35 (1.12; 1.19), of poorer health (1.33 (1.27; 1.39), reporting an unhealthy lifestyle and who had either a low (<18.5 kg/m2, 1.16 (1.09; 1.23)) or a high BMI (>25, 1.08 (1.06; 1.10); especially ≥30 kg/m2, 1.26 (1.23; 1.29)). CONCLUSIONS Cohort studies may enhance cohort maintenance by paying particular attention to the subgroups that are most unlikely to respond and by an active recruitment strategy using telephone interviews.

Social inequalities and mortality in Europe-results from a large multi-national cohort

BACKGROUND Socio-economic inequalities in mortality are observed at the country level in both North America and Europe. The purpose of this work is to investigate the contribution of specific risk factors to social inequalities in cause-specific mortality using a large multi-country cohort of Europeans. METHODS A total of 3,456,689 person/years follow-up of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) was analysed. Educational level of subjects coming from 9 European countries was recorded as proxy for socio-economic status (SES). Cox proportional hazard model's with a step-wise inclusion of explanatory variables were used to explore the association between SES and mortality; a Relative Index of Inequality (RII) was calculated as measure of relative inequality. RESULTS Total mortality among men with the highest education level is reduced by 43% compared to men with the lowest (HR 0.57, 95% C.I. 0.52-0.61); among women by 29% (HR 0.71, 95% C.I. 0.64-0.78). The risk reduction was attenuated by 7% in men and 3% in women by the introduction of smoking and to a lesser extent (2% in men and 3% in women) by introducing body mass index and additional explanatory variables (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake) (3% in men and 5% in women). Social inequalities were highly statistically significant for all causes of death examined in men. In women, social inequalities were less strong, but statistically significant for all causes of death except for cancer-related mortality and injuries. DISCUSSION In this European study, substantial social inequalities in mortality among European men and women which cannot be fully explained away by accounting for known common risk factors for chronic diseases are reported.

Identification of serological biomarkers of infection, disease progression and treatment efficacy for leprosy

Although leprosy is curable with drug treatment, the identification of biomarkers of infection, disease progression and treatment efficacy would greatly help to reduce the overall prevalence of the disease. Reliable biomarkers would also reduce the incidence of grade-2 disability by ensuring that those who are most at risk are diagnosed and treated early or offered repeated treatments in the case of relapse. In this study, we examined the reactivity of sera from lepromatous and tuberculoid leprosy patients (LPs) against a panel of 12 recombinant Mycobacterium leprae proteins and found that six proteins were strongly recognised by multibacillary (MB) patients, while only three were consistently recognised by paucibacillary patients. To better understand the dynamics of patient antibody responses during and after drug therapy, we measured antibody titres to four recombinant proteins, phenolic glycolipid-I and lipoarabinomannan at baseline and up to two years after diagnosis to investigate the temporal changes in the antibody titres. Reactivity patterns to individual antigens and decreases in antibody titres were patient-specific. Antibody titres to proteins declined more rapidly vs. those to carbohydrate and glycolipid antigens. Compared to baseline values, increases in antibody titres were observed during reactional episodes in one individual. Additionally, antibody responses against a subset of antigens that provided a good prognostic indicator of disease progression were analysed in 51 household contacts of MB index cases for up to two years. Although the majority of these contacts showed no change or exhibited decreases in antibody titres, seven individuals developed higher titres towards one or more of these antigens and one individual with progressively higher titres was diagnosed with borderline lepromatous leprosy 19 months after enrolment. The results of this study indicate that antibody titres to specific M. leprae antigens can be used to monitor treatment efficacy in LPs and assess disease progression in those most at risk for developing this disease.

Meat consumption and mortality - results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND Recently, some US cohorts have shown a moderate association between red and processed meat consumption and mortality supporting the results of previous studies among vegetarians. The aim of this study was to examine the association of red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption with the risk of early death in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS Included in the analysis were 448,568 men and women without prevalent cancer, stroke, or myocardial infarction, and with complete information on diet, smoking, physical activity and body mass index, who were between 35 and 69 years old at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association of meat consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS As of June 2009, 26,344 deaths were observed. After multivariate adjustment, a high consumption of red meat was related to higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.28, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day), and the association was stronger for processed meat (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.66, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day). After correction for measurement error, higher all-cause mortality remained significant only for processed meat (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.25, per 50 g/d). We estimated that 3.3% (95% CI 1.5% to 5.0%) of deaths could be prevented if all participants had a processed meat consumption of less than 20 g/day. Significant associations with processed meat intake were observed for cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and 'other causes of death'. The consumption of poultry was not related to all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS The results of our analysis support a moderate positive association between processed meat consumption and mortality, in particular due to cardiovascular diseases, but also to cancer.

Sequence polymorphisms in Pvs48/45 and Pvs47 gametocyte and gamete surface proteins in Plasmodium vivax isolated in Korea

Nucleotide sequence analyses of the Pvs48/45 and Pvs47 genes were conducted in 46 malaria patients from the Republic of Korea (ROK) (n = 40) and returning travellers from India (n = 3) and Indonesia (n = 3). The domain structures, which were based on cysteine residue position and secondary protein structure, were similar between Plasmodium vivax (Pvs48/45 and Pvs47) and Plasmodium falciparum (Pfs48/45 and Pfs47). In comparison to the Sal-1 reference strain (Pvs48/45, PVX_083235 and Pvs47, PVX_083240), Korean isolates revealed seven polymorphisms (E35K, H211N, K250N, D335Y, A376T, I380T and K418R) in Pvs48/45. These isolates could be divided into five haplotypes with the two major types having frequencies of 47.5% and 20%, respectivelfy. In Pvs47, 10 polymorphisms (F22L, F24L, K27E, D31N, V230I, M233I, E240D, I262T, I273M and A373V) were found and they could be divided into four haplotypes with one major type having a frequency of 75%. The Pvs48/45 isolates from India showed a unique amino acid substitution site (K26R). Compared to the Sal-1 and ROK isolates, the Pvs47 isolates from travellers returning from India and Indonesia had amino acid substitutions (S57T and I262K). The current data may contribute to the development of the malaria transmission-blocking vaccine in future clinical trials.

Macronutrient composition of the diet and prospective weight change in participants of the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS 373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

The association between dietary energy density and type 2 diabetes in Europe: results from the EPIC-InterAct Study

BACKGROUND Observational studies implicate higher dietary energy density (DED) as a potential risk factor for weight gain and obesity. It has been hypothesized that DED may also be associated with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but limited evidence exists. Therefore, we investigated the association between DED and risk of T2D in a large prospective study with heterogeneity of dietary intake. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS A case-cohort study was nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) study of 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person years of follow-up, identifying 12,403 incident diabetes cases and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. DED was calculated as energy (kcal) from foods (except beverages) divided by the weight (gram) of foods estimated from dietary questionnaires. Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted by country. Risk estimates were pooled by random effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated. Estimated mean (sd) DED was 1.5 (0.3) kcal/g among cases and subcohort members, varying across countries (range 1.4-1.7 kcal/g). After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, energy intake from beverages and misreporting of dietary intake, no association was observed between DED and T2D (HR 1.02 (95% CI: 0.93-1.13), which was consistent across countries (I(2) = 2.9%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE In this large European case-cohort study no association between DED of solid and semi-solid foods and risk of T2D was observed. However, despite the fact that there currently is no conclusive evidence for an association between DED and T2DM risk, choosing low energy dense foods should be promoted as they support current WHO recommendations to prevent chronic diseases.