Análise empírica da presença de "Market timing" no mercado acionário brasileiro

Este trabalho objetiva verificar a existência de “Market Timing” no mercado acionário brasileiro. Os nossos estudos foram divididos em três análises distintas. Primeiro verificamos a presença de “market-timing” nos IPOs e posteriormente expandimos para as ofertas subseqüentes de ações (OSAs). Por último verificamos a persistência dos efeitos do “Market Timing” sobre a estrutura de capital das empresas. Os resultados dos nossos estudos mostram que as empresas brasileiras tendem a emitir mais capital quando o mercado está aquecido. Essas emissões acontecem através de IPOs e de OSAs e alteram a estrutura de capital dessas empresas. Com o passar do tempo essa alteração na estrutura de capital tende a diminuir.

Um Estudo de técnicas de aceleração para algoritmos de análise de timing funcional baseados em geração automática de teste

Este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar e avaliar técnicas para a aceleração de algoritmos de análise de timing funcional (FTA - Functional Timing Analysis) baseados em geração automática de testes (ATPG – Automatic Test Generation). Para tanto, são abordados três algoritmos conhecidos : algoritmo-D, o PODEM e o FAN. Após a análise dos algoritmos e o estudo de algumas técnicas de aceleração, é proposto o algoritmo DETA (Delay Enumeration-Based Timing Analysis) que determina o atraso crítico de circuitos que contêm portas complexas. O DETA está definido como um algoritmo baseado em ATPG com sensibilização concorrente de caminhos. Na implementação do algoritmo, foi possível validar o modelo de computação de atrasos para circuitos que contêm portas complexas utilizando a abordagem de macro-expansão implícita. Além disso, alguns resultados parciais demonstram que, para alguns circuitos, o DETA apresenta uma pequena dependência do número de entradas quando comparado com a dependência no procedimento de simulação. Desta forma, é possível evitar uma pesquisa extensa antes de se encontrar o teste e assim, obter sucesso na aplicação de métodos para aceleração do algoritmo.

The effects of uncertainty about the timing of deals on consumer behavior

I examine the effects of uncertainty about the timing of de aIs (i.e. temporary price cuts or sales) on consumer behavior in a dynamic inventory model of consumer choice. I derive implications for purchase behavior and test them empirically, using two years of scanner data for soft drinks. I fmd that loyal consumers' decisions, both about the allocation of their purchases over time and the quantity to be purchased in a particular deal, are affected by the uncertainty about the timing of the deal for the product. Loyal consumers buy a higher fraction of their overall purchases during de ais as the uncertainty decreases. This effect increases with an increase in the product' s share of a given consumer' s purchase in the same category or if the consumer stockpiles (i.e., is a shopper). During a particular deal, loyal shoppers increase the quantity they purchase the more time that has passed since the previous de aI, and the higher the uncertainty about the deals' timing. For the non-Ioyal consumers these effects are not significant. These results hold for products that are frequently purchased, like soft-drinks and yogurt, but do not hold for less frequentIy purchased products, such as laundry detergents. The fmdings suggest that manufacturers and retailers should incorporate the effects of deals' timing on consumers' purchase' decisions when deriving optimal pricing strategies.

Market timing as a motive for IPOs: evidence from IPOs of Japanese keiretsu firms

This paper examines the relevance of market timing as a motive for initial public offerings (IPOs) by comparing IPOs of firms that are members of Japanese keiretsu industrial groups with IPOs of independent Japanese firms. We argue that Japanese keiretsu-linked IPOs form a favorable sample to find evidence of the market timing motive. Instead, the data provide strong evidence for a restructuring motive and little evidence for market timing. We find that long run returns to keiretsu and independent IPOs are not negative, contrary to U.S. evidence, and are indistinguishable from each other; initial returns to keiretsu-linked IPOs are significantly higher than to independent firms; and a significant number of keiretsu IPO firms adjust their linkages with the group following the IPO, with both increases and decreases.

Earnings dynamics and inequality in Venezuela: 1995-1997

In this paper, we decompose the variance of logarithmic monthly earnings of prime age males into its permanent and transitory components, using a five-wave rotating panel from the Venezuelan “Encuesta de Hogares por Muestreo” from 1995 to 1997. As far as we know, this is the first time a variance components model is estimated for a developing country. We test several specifications and find that an error component model with individual random effects and first order serially correlated errors fits the data well. In the simplest model, around 22% of earnings variance is explained by the variance of permanent component, 77% by purely stochastic variation and the remaining 1% by serial correlation. These results contrast with studies from industrial countries where the permanent component is predominant. The permanent component is usually interpreted as the results of productivity characteristics of individuals whereas the transitory component is due to stochastic perturbations such as job and/or price instability, among others. Our findings may be due to the timing of the panel when occurred precisely during macroeconomic turmoil resulting from a severe financial crisis. The findings suggest that earnings instability is an important source of inequality in a region characterized by high inequality and macroeconomic instability.

Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The model captures the dynamic coordination problem arising from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, a firm faces low demand and hence has less incentives for investing, which reinforces firms’ expectations of low demand. In the unique equilibrium of the model, demand expectations are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to the beliefs that arise in equilibrium, there is no special reason for stimulus at times of low economic activity.

Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors

This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the nite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in nite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics.

Representation of odometry errors on occupancy grids

SOUZA, Anderson A. S. ; SANTANA, André M. ; BRITTO, Ricardo S. ; GONÇALVES, Luiz Marcos G. ; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. Representation of Odometry Errors on Occupancy Grids. In: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INFORMATICS IN CONTROL, AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS, 5., 2008, Funchal, Portugal. Proceedings... Funchal, Portugal: ICINCO, 2008.

Prevalence of refractive errors in students in Northeastern Brazil

To determine the prevalence of refractive errors in the public and private school system in the city of Natal, Northeastern Brazil. Methods: Refractometry was performed on both eyes of 1,024 randomly selected students, enrolled in the 2001 school year and the data were evaluated by the SPSS Data Editor 10.0. Ametropia was divided into: 1- from 0.1 to 0.99 diopter (D); 2- 1.0 to 2.99D; 3- 3.00 to 5.99D and 4- 6D or greater. Astigmatism was regrouped in: I- with-the-rule (axis from 0 to 30 and 150 to 180 degrees), II- against-the-rule (axis between 60 and 120 degrees) and III- oblique (axis between > 30 and < 60 and >120 and <150 degrees). The age groups were categorized as follows, in: 1- 5 to 10 years, 2- 11 to 15 years, 3- 16 to 20 years, 4- over 21 years. Results: Among refractive errors, hyperopia was the most common with 71%, followed by astigmatism (34%) and myopia (13.3%). Of the students with myopia and hyperopia, 48.5% and 34.1% had astigmatism, respectively. With respect to diopters, 58.1% of myopic students were in group 1, and 39% distributed between groups 2 and 3. Hyperopia were mostly found in group 1 (61.7%) as well as astigmatism (70.6%). The association of the astigmatism axes of both eyes showed 92.5% with axis with-the-rule in both eyes, while the percentage for those with axis againstthe- rule was 82.1% and even lower for the oblique axis (50%). Conclusion: The results found differed from those of most international studies, mainly from the Orient, which pointed to myopia as the most common refractive error, and corroborates the national ones, with the majority being hyperopia

Method of numerical correction of errors occasioned by delay of records during the monitoring of environmental variables of interest for animal production

As condições de ambiente térmico e aéreo, no interior de instalações para animais, alteram-se durante o dia, devido à influência do ambiente externo. Para que análises estatísticas e geoestatísticas sejam representativas, uma grande quantidade de pontos distribuídos espacialmente na área da instalação deve ser monitorada. Este trabalho propõe que a variação no tempo das variáveis ambientais de interesse para a produção animal, monitoradas no interior de instalações para animais, pode ser modelada com precisão a partir de registros discretos no tempo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um método numérico para corrigir as variações temporais dessas variáveis ambientais, transformando os dados para que tais observações independam do tempo gasto durante a aferição. O método proposto aproximou os valores registrados com retardos de tempo aos esperados no exato momento de interesse, caso os dados fossem medidos simultaneamente neste momento em todos os pontos distribuídos espacialmente. O modelo de correção numérica para variáveis ambientais foi validado para o parâmetro ambiental temperatura do ar, sendo que os valores corrigidos pelo método não diferiram pelo teste Tukey, a 5% de probabilidade dos valores reais registrados por meio de dataloggers.

Effect of timing of estradiol benzoate administration upon synchronization of ovulation in suckling Nelore cows (Bos indicus) treated with a progesterone-releasing intravaginal device

The present study investigated how the timing of the administration of estradiol benzoate (EB) impacted the synchronization of ovulation in fixed-time artificial insemination protocols of cattle. To accomplish this, two experiments were conducted, with EB injection occurring at different times: at withdrawal of the progesterone-releasing (N) intravaginal device or 24 h later. The effectiveness of these times was compared by examining ovarian follicular dynamics (Experiment 1, n = 30) and conception rates (Experiment 2, n = 504). In Experiment 1, follicular dynamics was performed in 30 Nelore cows (Bos indicus) allocated into two groups. on a random day of the estrous cycle (Day 0), both groups received 2 mg of EB i.m. and a P4-releasing intravaginal device, which was removed on Day 8, when 400 IU of eCG and 150 mu g of PGF were administered. The control group (G-EB9; n = 15) received 1 mg of EB on Day 9, while Group EB8 (G-EB8; n = 15) received the same dose a day earlier. Ovarian ultrasonographic evaluations were performed every 8 h after device removal until ovulation. The timing of EB administration (Day 8 compared with Day 9) did affect the interval between P4 device removal to ovulation (59.4 +/- 2.0 h compared with 69.3 +/- 1.7 h) and maximum diameter of dominant (1.54 +/- 0.06 a cm compared with 1.71 +/- 0.05 b cm, P = 0.03) and ovulatory (1.46 +/- 0.05 a cm compared with 1.58 +/- 0.04 b cm, P < 0.01) follicles. In Experiment 2,504 suckling cows received the same treatment described in Experiment 1, but insemination was performed as follows: Group EB8-AI48h (G-EB8-AI48h; n = 119) and Group EB8-AI54h (G-EB8-AI54h; n = 134) received 1 mg of EB on Day 8 and FrAI was performed, respectively, 48 or 54 h after P4 device removal. Group EB9-AI48h (G-EB9-AI48h; n = 126) and Group EB9-AI54h (G-EB9-AI54h n = 125) received the same treatments and underwent the same FTAI protocols as G-EB8-AI48h and G-EB8-AI54h, respectively; however, EB was administered on Day 9. Conception rates were greater (P < 0.05) in G-EB9-AI54h 163.2% (79/125) a], G-EB9-AI48h [58.7% (74/126) a] and G-EB8-AI48h [58.8% (70/119) a] than in G-EB8-AI54h [34.3% (46/134) b]. We concluded that when EB administration occurred at device withdrawal (D8), the interval to ovulation shortened and dominant and ovulatory follicle diameters decreased. Furthermore, when EB treatment was performed 24 h after device removal, FTAI conducted at either 48 or 54 h resulted in similar conception rates. However, EB treatment on the same day as device withdrawal resulted in a lesser conception rate when FTAI was conducted 54 h after device removal. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cover crops and herbicide timing management on soybean yield under no-tillage system

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Different timing of whitefly control and soybean yield

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A neural network approach for robust nonlinear parameter estimation in presence of unknown-but-bounded errors

Systems based on artificial neural networks have high computational rates due to the use of a massive number of simple processing elements and the high degree of connectivity between these elements. This paper presents a novel approach to solve robust parameter estimation problem for nonlinear model with unknown-but-bounded errors and uncertainties. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the network convergence to the equilibrium points. A solution for the robust estimation problem with unknown-but-bounded error corresponds to an equilibrium point of the network. Simulation results are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach. Copyright (C) 2000 IFAC.