Urban water demand model: the case study of Emilia Romagna (Italy)

Water is the driving force in nature. We use water for washing cars, doing laundry, cooking, taking a shower, but also to generate energy and electricity. Therefore water is a necessary product in our daily lives (USGS. Howard Perlman, 2013). The model that we created is based on the urban water demand computer model from the Pacific Institute (California). With this model we will forecast the future urban water use of Emilia Romagna up to the year of 2030. We will analyze the urban water demand in Emilia Romagna that includes the 9 provinces: Bologna, Ferrara, Forli-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Ravenna, Reggio Emilia and Rimini. The term urban water refers to the water used in cities and suburbs and in homes in the rural areas. This will include the residential, commercial, institutional and the industrial use. In this research, we will cover the water saving technologies that can help to save water for daily use. We will project what influence these technologies have to the urban water demand, and what it can mean for future urban water demands. The ongoing climate change can reduce the snowpack, and extreme floods or droughts in Italy. The changing climate and development patterns are expected to have a significant impact on water demand in the future. We will do this by conducting different scenario analyses, by combining different population projections, climate influence and water saving technologies. In addition, we will also conduct a sensitivity analyses. The several analyses will show us how future urban water demand is likely respond to changes in water conservation technologies, population, climate, water price and consumption. I hope the research can contribute to the insight of the reader’s thoughts and opinion.

Educational mismathc in Italian an European labour markets (starting from the UK)

The present doctoral thesis is structured as a collection of three essays. The first essay, “SOC(HE)-Italy: a classification for graduate occupations” presents the conceptual basis, the construction, the validation and the application to the Italian labour force of the occupational classification termed SOC(HE)-Italy. I have developed this classification under the supervision of Kate Purcell during my period as a visiting research student at the Warwick Institute for Emplyment Research. This classification links the constituent tasks and duties of a particular job to the relevant knowledge and skills imparted via Higher Education (HE). It is based onto the SOC(HE)2010, an occupational classification first proposed by Kate Purcell in 2013, but differently constructed. In the second essay “Assessing the incidence and wage effects of overeducation among Italian graduates using a new measure for educational requirements” I utilize this classification to build a valid and reliable measure for job requirements. The lack of an unbiased measure for this dimension constitutes one of the major constraints to achieve a generally accepted measurement of overeducation. Estimations of overeducation incidence and wage effects are run onto AlmaLaurea data from the survey on graduates career paths. I have written this essay and obtained these estimates benefiting of the help and guidance of Giovanni Guidetti and Giulio Pedrini. The third and last essay titled “Overeducation in the Italian labour market: clarifying the concepts and addressing the measurement error problem” addresses a number of theoretical issues concerning the concepts of educational mismatch and overeducation. Using Istat data from RCFL survey I run estimates of the ORU model for the whole Italian labour force. In my knowledge, this is the first time ever such model is estimated on such population. In addition, I adopt the new measure of overeducation based onto the SOC(HE)-Italy classification.

[Exposure of the Swiss population to radiation from diagnostic x-ray studies]

A new study is presently being conducted on the exposure of the Swiss population to radiation by diagnostic measures. This study is performed by the Department of Medical Radiation Physics of the University of Berne in collaboration with the Federal Health Bureau and the Swiss Institute for Health and Hospital Matters. In earlier studies the genetically significant exposure of the population and subsequently the median exposure of the red bone marrow had been investigated, whereas now the risk exposure to radiation of as far as possible practically all the risk-relevant organs will be studied. Prior to the initiation of the study, all results of earlier investigations during 1957, 1971 and 1978 were collected and analysed. It was found that the published results are hardly comparable, since the first study was based on individual X-ray examinations and the two subsequent studies on the localised X-ray examinations. To ensure that all data are now comparable, the results of the three studies were appropriately recalculated. Although certain assumptions had to be made that cannot be fully verified any more in view of the time that has elapsed, the collected results will provide a fairly reliable overview of the present-day state of knowledge in this particular field.

Testing the GlaaS algorithm for dose measurements on low- and high-energy photon beams using an amorphous silicon portal imager

The GLAaS algorithm for pretreatment intensity modulation radiation therapy absolute dose verification based on the use of amorphous silicon detectors, as described in Nicolini et al. [G. Nicolini, A. Fogliata, E. Vanetti, A. Clivio, and L. Cozzi, Med. Phys. 33, 2839-2851 (2006)], was tested under a variety of experimental conditions to investigate its robustness, the possibility of using it in different clinics and its performance. GLAaS was therefore tested on a low-energy Varian Clinac (6 MV) equipped with an amorphous silicon Portal Vision PV-aS500 with electronic readout IAS2 and on a high-energy Clinac (6 and 15 MV) equipped with a PV-aS1000 and IAS3 electronics. Tests were performed for three calibration conditions: A: adding buildup on the top of the cassette such that SDD-SSD = d(max) and comparing measurements with corresponding doses computed at d(max), B: without adding any buildup on the top of the cassette and considering only the intrinsic water-equivalent thickness of the electronic portal imaging devices device (0.8 cm), and C: without adding any buildup on the top of the cassette but comparing measurements against doses computed at d(max). This procedure is similar to that usually applied when in vivo dosimetry is performed with solid state diodes without sufficient buildup material. Quantitatively, the gamma index (gamma), as described by Low et al. [D. A. Low, W. B. Harms, S. Mutic, and J. A. Purdy, Med. Phys. 25, 656-660 (1998)], was assessed. The gamma index was computed for a distance to agreement (DTA) of 3 mm. The dose difference deltaD was considered as 2%, 3%, and 4%. As a measure of the quality of results, the fraction of field area with gamma larger than 1 (%FA) was scored. Results over a set of 50 test samples (including fields from head and neck, breast, prostate, anal canal, and brain cases) and from the long-term routine usage, demonstrated the robustness and stability of GLAaS. In general, the mean values of %FA remain below 3% for deltaD equal or larger than 3%, while they are slightly larger for deltaD = 2% with %FA in the range from 3% to 8%. Since its introduction in routine practice, 1453 fields have been verified with GLAaS at the authors' institute (6 MV beam). Using a DTA of 3 mm and a deltaD of 4% the authors obtained %FA = 0.9 +/- 1.1 for the entire data set while, stratifying according to the dose calculation algorithm, they observed: %FA = 0.7 +/- 0.9 for fields computed with the analytical anisotropic algorithm and %FA = 2.4 +/- 1.3 for pencil-beam based fields with a statistically significant difference between the two groups. If data are stratified according to field splitting, they observed %FA = 0.8 +/- 1.0 for split fields and 1.0 +/- 1.2 for nonsplit fields without any significant difference.

Organisational and methodical aspects of drug and addiction prevention among young people. Developments in the Ukraine, in Germany, Spain and Russia (Project Description)

From october 2000 to march 2003 the project has been coordinated by the institute of social work and welfare studies of the TU Dresden and financed by the European Commission (INCO-COPERNICUS-Programme). It was an international cooperation between the TU Dresden (Germany), the University of Internal Affairs and the National Technical University in Kharkiv (Ukraine), the research institute AREA in Valenciá (Spain) and the Belgorod Juridical Institute of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (Russia) which was established for improving the knowledge base of drug prevention activities by the East European partners. The overall aim of the project was the analysis and elaboration of approaches to drug and addiction prevention. Under consideration of the specific conditions within the East-European countries this work should contribute to the development of pluralistic approaches towards health promotion which are embedded into an intercultural, European horizon.

Archaeological Discoveries on Schnidejoch and at Other Ice Sites in the European Alps

Only a few sites in the Alps have produced archaeological finds from melting ice. To date, prehistoric finds from four sites dating from the Neolithic period, the Bronze Age, and the Iron Age have been recovered from small ice patches (Schnidejoch, Lötschenpass, Tisenjoch, and Gemsbichl/Rieserferner). Glaciers, on the other hand, have yielded historic finds and frozen human remains that are not more than a few hundred years old (three glacier mummies from the 16th to the 19th century and military finds from World Wars I and II). Between 2003 and 2010, numerous archaeological finds were recovered from a melting ice patch on the Schnidejoch in the Bernese Alps (Cantons of Berne and Valais, Switzerland). These finds date from the Neolithic period, the Early Bronze Age, the Iron Age, Roman times, and the Middle Ages, spanning a period of 6000 years. The Schnidejoch, at an altitude of 2756 m asl, is a pass in the Wildhorn region of the western Bernese Alps. It has yielded some of the earliest evidence of Neolithic human activity at high altitude in the Alps. The abundant assemblage of finds contains a number of unique artifacts, mainly from organic materials like leather, wood, bark, and fibers. The site clearly proves access to high-mountain areas as early as the 5th millennium BC, and the chronological distribution of the finds indicates that the Schnidejoch pass was used mainly during periods when glaciers were retreating.

The Nature of Scientific Proof in the Age of Simulations. Is numerical mimicry a third way of establishing truth?

Is numerical mimicry a third way of establishing truth? Kevin Heng received his M.S. and Ph.D. in astrophysics from the Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics (JILA) and the University of Colorado at Boulder. He joined the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton from 2007 to 2010, first as a Member and later as the Frank & Peggy Taplin Member. From 2010 to 2012 he was a Zwicky Prize Fellow at ETH Z¨urich (the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology). In 2013, he joined the Center for Space and Habitability (CSH) at the University of Bern, Switzerland, as a tenure-track assistant professor, where he leads the Exoplanets and Exoclimes Group. He has worked on, and maintains, a broad range of interests in astrophysics: shocks, extrasolar asteroid belts, planet formation, fluid dynamics, brown dwarfs and exoplanets. He coordinates the Exoclimes Simulation Platform (ESP), an open-source set of theoretical tools designed for studying the basic physics and chemistry of exoplanetary atmospheres and climates (www.exoclime.org). He is involved in the CHEOPS (Characterizing Exoplanet Satellite) space telescope, a mission approved by the European Space Agency (ESA) and led by Switzerland. He spends a fair amount of time humbly learning the lessons gleaned from studying the Earth and Solar System planets, as related to him by atmospheric, climate and planetary scientists. He received a Sigma Xi Grant-in-Aid of Research in 2006

Association of optical tracklets from a geosynchronous belt survey via the direct Bayesian admissible region approach

The direct Bayesian admissible region approach is an a priori state free measurement association and initial orbit determination technique for optical tracks. In this paper, we test a hybrid approach that appends a least squares estimator to the direct Bayesian method on measurements taken at the Zimmerwald Observatory of the Astronomical Institute at the University of Bern. Over half of the association pairs agreed with conventional geometric track correlation and least squares techniques. The remaining pairs cast light on the fundamental limits of conducting tracklet association based solely on dynamical and geometrical information.

Suicide tourism: a pilot study on the swiss phenomenon

While assisted suicide (AS) is strictly restricted in many countries, it is not clearly regulated by law in Switzerland. This imbalance leads to an influx of people —‘suicide tourists’—coming to Switzerland, mainly to the Canton of Zurich, for the sole purpose of committing suicide. Political debate regarding ‘suicide tourism’ is taking place in many countries. Swiss medicolegal experts are confronted with these cases almost daily, which prompted our scientific investigation of the phenomenon. The present study has three aims: (1) to determine selected details about AS in the study group (age, gender and country of residence of the suicide tourists, the organisation involved, the ingested substance leading to death and any diseases that were the main reason for AS); (2) to find out the countries from which suicide tourists come and to review existing laws in the top three in order to test the hypothesis that suicide tourism leads to the amendment of existing regulations in foreign countries; and (3) to compare our results with those of earlier studies in Zurich. We did a retrospective data analysis of the Zurich Institute of Legal Medicine database on AS of on-Swiss residents in the last 5 years (2008–2012), and internet research for current legislation and political debate in the three foreign countries most concerned. We analysed 611 cases from 31 countries all over the world. Non-terminal conditions such as neurological and rheumatic diseases are increasing among suicide tourists. The unique phenomenon of suicide tourism in Switzerland may indeed result in the amendment or supplementary guidelines to existing regulations in foreign countries.

GOCE: precise orbit determination for the entire mission

The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) was the first Earth explorer core mission of the European Space Agency. It was launched on March 17, 2009 into a Sun-synchronous dusk-dawn orbit and re-entered into the Earth’s atmosphere on November 11, 2013. The satellite altitude was between 255 and 225 km for the measurement phases. The European GOCE Gravity consortium is responsible for the Level 1b to Level 2 data processing in the frame of the GOCE High-level processing facility (HPF). The Precise Science Orbit (PSO) is one Level 2 product, which was produced under the responsibility of the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern within the HPF. This PSO product has been continuously delivered during the entire mission. Regular checks guaranteed a high consistency and quality of the orbits. A correlation between solar activity, GPS data availability and quality of the orbits was found. The accuracy of the kinematic orbit primarily suffers from this. Improvements in modeling the range corrections at the retro-reflector array for the SLR measurements were made and implemented in the independent SLR validation for the GOCE PSO products. The satellite laser ranging (SLR) validation finally states an orbit accuracy of 2.42 cm for the kinematic and 1.84 cm for the reduced-dynamic orbits over the entire mission. The common-mode accelerations from the GOCE gradiometer were not used for the official PSO product, but in addition to the operational HPF work a study was performed to investigate to which extent common-mode accelerations improve the reduced-dynamic orbit determination results. The accelerometer data may be used to derive realistic constraints for the empirical accelerations estimated for the reduced-dynamic orbit determination, which already improves the orbit quality. On top of that the accelerometer data may further improve the orbit quality if realistic constraints and state-of-the-art background models such as gravity field and ocean tide models are used for the reduced-dynamic orbit determination.

Reevaluation of the MASTER-2009 MLI and H-10 Debris Modeling

The current paper is an excerpt from the doctoral thesis ”Multi-Layer Insulation as Contribution to Orbital Debris”written at the Institute of Aerospace Systems of the Technische Universit ̈at of Braunschweig. The Multi-Layer In-sulation (MLI) population included in ESA’s MASTER-2009 (M eteoroid and Space-Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) software is based on models for two mechanisms: One model simulates the release of MLI debris during fragmentation events while another estimates the continuo us release of larger MLI pieces due to aging related deterioration of the material. The aim of the thesis was to revise the MLI models from the base up followed by a re-validation of the simulated MLI debris population. The validation is based on comparison to measurement data of the GEO and GTO debris environment obtained by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) using ESA’s Space Debris Telescope (ESASDT), the 1-m Zeiss telescope located at the Optical Ground Station (OGS) at the Teide Observatory at Tenerife, Spain. The re-validation led to the conclusion that MLI may cover a much smaller portion of the observed objects than previously published. Further investigation of the resulting discrepancy revealed that the contribution of altogether nine known Ariane H-10 upper stage explosion events which occurred between 1984 and 2002 has very likely been underestimated in past simulations.

SMARTnet: A Sensor for Monitoring the Geostationary Ring

As the number of space debris is increasing in the geostationary ring, it becomes mandatory for any satellite operator to avoid any collisions. Space debris in geosynchronous orbits may be observed with optical telescopes. Other than radar, that requires very large dishes and transmission powers for sensing high-altitude objects, optical observations do not depend on active illumination from ground and may be performed with notably smaller apertures. The detection size of an object depends on the aperture of the telescope, sky background and exposure time. With a telescope of 50 cm aperture, objects down to approximately 50 cm may be observed. This size is regarded as a threshold for the identification of hazardous objects and the prevention of potentially catastrophic collisions in geostationary orbits. In collaboration with the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), the German Space Operations Center (GSOC) is building a small aperture telescope to demonstrate the feasibility of optical surveillance of the geostationary ring. The telescope will be located in the southern hemisphere and complement an existing telescope in the northern hemisphere already operated by AIUB. These two telescopes provide an optimum coverage of European GEO satellites and enable a continuous monitoring independent of seasonal limitations. The telescope will be operated completely automatically. The automated operations should be demonstrated covering the full range of activities including scheduling of observations, telescope and camera control as well as data processing.