Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

Stochastic Short-term Incentive-based Demand Response Scheduling of Load-serving Entities

In competitive electricity markets it is necessary for a profit-seeking load-serving entity (LSE) to optimally adjust the financial incentives offering the end users that buy electricity at regulated rates to reduce the consumption during high market prices. The LSE in this model manages the demand response (DR) by offering financial incentives to retail customers, in order to maximize its expected profit and reduce the risk of market power experience. The stochastic formulation is implemented into a test system where a number of loads are supplied through LSEs.

Multiagent System Architecture for Short-term Operation of Integrated Microgrids

The forthcoming smart grids are comprised of integrated microgrids operating in grid-connected and isolated mode with local generation, storage and demand response (DR) programs. The proposed model is based on three successive complementary steps for power transaction in the market environment. The first step is characterized as a microgrid’s internal market; the second concerns negotiations between distinct interconnected microgrids; and finally, the third refers to the actual electricity market. The proposed approach is modeled and tested using a MAS framework directed to the study of the smart grids environment, including the simulation of electricity markets. This is achieved through the integration of the proposed approach with the MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform) system.

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

Interpreting change in human-nature and long term social relationships

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ciências do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia.

WIDESPREAD CUTANEOUS LESIONS DUE TO Sporothrix schenckii IN A PATIENT UNDER A LONG TERM STEROIDS THERAPY

A case of sporotrichosis in a woman presenting 63 cutaneous lesions distributed all over the tegument is related. The patient had both humoral (Immunoglobulins) and cellular (Lymphocytes subpopulations) immunity within normal limits, but was under treatment with steroid during a long time (Prednisone 10 mg daily for 2 years), due to a sciatic pain. In addition a review of the Brazilian literature on this type of lesions was carried out and commented.

Chronic hepatitis C virus infections in Brazilian patients: association with genotypes, clinical parameters and response to long term alpha interferon therapy

The present study assessed the clinical significance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes and their influence on response to long term recombinant-interferon-alpha (r-IFN-a) therapy in Brazilian patients. One hundred and thirty samples from patients previously genotyped for the HCV and with histologically confirmed chronic hepatitis C (CH-C) were evaluated for clinical and epidemiological parameters (sex, age, time of HCV infection and transmission routes). No difference in disease activity, sex, age or mode and time of transmission were seen among patients infected with HCV types 1, 2 or 3. One hundred and thirteen of them were treated with 3 million units of r-IFN-a, 3 times a week for 12 months. Initial response (IR) was significantly better in patients with genotype 2 (100%) and 3 (46%) infections than in patients with genotype 1 (29%) (p < 0.005). Among subtypes, difference in IR was observed between 1b and 2 (p < 0.005), and between 1b and 3a (p < 0.05). Sustained response (SR) was observed in 12% for (sub)type 1a, 13% for 1b, 19% for 3a, and 40% for type 2; significant differences were found between 1b and 2 (p < 0.001), and between 1b and 3a (p < 0.05). Moreover, presence of cirrhosis was significantly associated with non response and response with relapse (p < 0.05). In conclusion, non-1 HCV genotype and lack of histological diagnosis of cirrhosis were the only baseline features associated with sustained response to treatment. These data indicate that HCV genotyping may have prognostic relevance in the responsiveness to r-IFN-a therapy in Brazilian patients with chronic HCV infection, as seen in other reports worldwide.

Nosocomial infection in long-term care facilities. A survey in a Brazilian psychiatric hospital

Nosocomial infection among male patients in a public psychiatric hospital was studied and the definitions for use in long-term care facilities were employed for diagnosis. The overall nosocomial infection rate was 6.7 per 1,000 day inpatients; 55.6% of these infections were identified in the respiratory tract, 50% of them being respiratory viral diseases; 38.9% of the nosocomial infections involved the eyes, ears, nose, throat and mouth, and 5.6% involved the skin and soft tissues. The epidemiological characteristics and the main clinical alterations of these inpatients were also identified.

Nutritonal evaluation of pemphigus foliaceus patients on long term glucocorticoid therapy

Our objective was to compare food intake and nutritional status of Pemphigus Foliaceus patients (PG) on long term glucocorticoid therapy to a Control Group (CG). Fourteen PG female inpatients receiving prednisone (0.33 ± 0.22mg/kg) for at least 12 months and twelve CG subjects were submitted to nutritional evaluation, including anthropometry, urinary creatinine determination and serum biochemical measurements, besides 48-h-based food intake records. Groups were compared by Chi-square, Mann-Whitney and "t" tests. PG patients and CG were paired, respectively, in relation to age (24.7 ± 14.1 vs. 22.0 ± 12.0 years), body mass index (25.8 ± 6.4 vs. 24.0 ± 5.6kg/m2), daily protein intake (132.9 ± 49.8 vs. 95.2 ± 58.9g), and serum albumin (median; range) (3.8; 3.5-4.1 vs. 3.8; 3.6-5.0g/dl). However, PG patients had lower height-creatinine index (64.8 ± 17.6 vs. 90.1 ± 33.4%), and higher daily energy (3080 ± 1099 vs. 2187 ± 702kcal) and carbohydrate (376.8 ± 135.8 vs. 242.0 ± 80.7g) intakes. Despite high food, protein and energy consumption, PG patients on long term glucocorticoid therapy had lower body muscle mass than controls, while showing high body fat stores. These findings are possibly related to combined metabolic effects of long term corticotherapy and inflammatory disease plus corticosteroid-induced increased appetite.

Long term evaluation of etiological treatment of Chagas disease with benznidazole

The aim of this article is to present an investigation of cure rate, after long follow up, of specific chemotherapy with benznidazole in patients with both acute and chronic Chagas disease, applying quantitative conventional serological tests as the base of the criterion of cure. Twenty one patients with the acute form and 113 with one or other of the various chronic clinical forms of the disease were evaluated, after a follow up period of 13 to 21 years, for the acute, and 6 to 18 years, for the chronic patients. The duration of the acute as well as the chronic disease, a condition which influences the results of the treatment, was determined. The therapeutic schedule was presented, with emphasis on the correlation between adverse reactions and the total dose of 18 grams, approximately, as well as taking into consideration precautions to assure the safety of the treatment. Quantitative serological reactions consisting of complement fixation, indirect immunofluorescence, indirect hemagglutination, and, occasionally, ELISA, were used. Cure was found in 76 per cent of the acute patients but only in 8 per cent of those with chronic forms of the disease. In the light of such contrasting results, fundamentals of the etiological therapy of Chagas disease were discussed, like the criterion of cure, the pathogenesis and the role of immunosuppression showing tissue parasitism in long standing chronic disease, in support of the concept that post-therapeutic consistently positive serological reactions mean the presence of the parasite in the patient's tissues. In relation to the life-cycle of T. cruzi in vertebrate host, there are still some obscure and controversial points, though there is no proof of the existence of resistant or latent forms. However, the finding over the last 15 years, that immunosuppression brings about the reappearance of acute disease in long stand chronic patients justifies a revision of the matter. Facts were quoted in favor of the treatment of chronic patients.

Frailty as a predictor of short-term adverse outcomes

The objectives of this study were to compare how different frailty measures (Frailty Phenotype/FP, Groningen Frailty Indicator/GFI and Tilburg Frailty Indicator/TFI) predict short-term adverse outcomes. Secondarily, adopting a multidimensional approach to frailty (integral conceptual model–TFI), this study aims to compare how physical, psychological and social frailty predict the outcomes. A longitudinal study was carried out with 95 community-dwelling elderly. Participants were assessed at baseline for frailty, determinants of frailty, and adverse outcomes (healthcare utilization, quality of life, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living/ADL and IADL). Ten months later the outcomes were assessed again. Frailty was associated with specific healthcare utilization indicators: the FP with a greater utilization of informal care; GFI with an increased contact with healthcare professionals; and TFI with a higher amount of contacts with a general practitioner. After controlling for the effect of life-course determinants, comorbidity and adverse outcome at baseline, GFI predicted IADL disability and TFI predicted quality of life. The effect of the FP on the outcomes was not significant, when compared with the other measures. However, when comparing TFI’s domains, the physical domain was the most significant predictor of the outcomes, even explaining part of the variance of ADL disability. Frailty at baseline was associated with adverse outcomes at follow-up. However, the relationship of each frailty measure (FP, GFI and TFI) with the outcomes was different. In spite of the role of psychological frailty, TFI’s physical domain was the determinant factor for predicting disability and most of the quality of life.

Evaluation of an in-house specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) avidity ELISA for distinguishing recent primary from long-term human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection

This article describes the standardization and evaluation of an in-house specific IgG avidity ELISA for distinguishing recent primary from long-term human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection. The test was standardized with the commercial kit ETI-CYTOK G Plus (Sorin Biomedica, Italy) using 8 M urea in phosphate-buffered saline to dissociate low-avidity antibodies after the antigen-antibody interaction. The performance of the in-house assay was compared to that of the commercial automated VIDAS CMV IgG avidity test (bioMérieux, France). Forty-nine sera, 24 from patients with a recent primary HCMV infection and 25 from patients with a long-term HCMV infection and a sustained persistence of specific IgM antibodies, were tested. Similar results were obtained with the two avidity methods. All 24 sera from patients with recently acquired infection had avidity indices compatible with acute HCMV infection by the VIDAS method, whereas with the in-house method, one serum sample had an equivocal result. In the 25 sera from patients with long-term infection, identical results were obtained with the two methods, with only one serum sample having an incompatible value. These findings suggest that our in-house avidity test could be a potentially useful tool for the immunodiagnosis of HCMV infection.

Long-Term Survival with Heart Transplantation for Fibrosarcoma of the Heart

Primary sarcoma of the heart is a rare disease that has an ominous prognosis with either medical or surgical therapy. We report a case of a 25-year-old woman with sarcoma of the heart who received a transplant and is clinically well after 7 years. We believe that transplantation must be considered in this kind of pathology for selected cases.

Using data mining with time series data in short-term stocks prediction

Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on short- time stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.