Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

Simulations in evolution. II. Relative fitness and the propagation of mutants.

In Neo-Darwinism, variation and natural selection are the two evolutionary mechanisms which propel biological evolution. Our previous article presented a histogram model [1] consisting in populations of individuals whose number changed under the influence of variation and/or fitness, the total population remaining constant. Individuals are classified into bins, and the content of each bin is calculated generation after generation by an Excel spreadsheet. Here, we apply the histogram model to a stable population with fitness F(1)=1.00 in which one or two fitter mutants emerge. In a first scenario, a single mutant emerged in the population whose fitness was greater than 1.00. The simulations ended when the original population was reduced to a single individual. The histogram model was validated by excellent agreement between its predictions and those of a classical continuous function (Eqn. 1) which predicts the number of generations needed for a favorable mutation to spread throughout a population. But in contrast to Eqn. 1, our histogram model is adaptable to more complex scenarios, as demonstrated here. In the second and third scenarios, the original population was present at time zero together with two mutants which differed from the original population by two higher and distinct fitness values. In the fourth scenario, the large original population was present at time zero together with one fitter mutant. After a number of generations, when the mutant offspring had multiplied, a second mutant was introduced whose fitness was even greater. The histogram model also allows Shannon entropy (SE) to be monitored continuously as the information content of the total population decreases or increases. The results of these simulations illustrate, in a graphically didactic manner, the influence of natural selection, operating through relative fitness, in the emergence and dominance of a fitter mutant.

Carcinome de Merket: (r)évolution [Merkel cell carcinoma: (r)evolution].

Merkel Cell Carcinoma (CCM) is an aggressive cutaneous tumor of the elderly, which has become the second cause of mortality linked to skin cancer. This has led clinicians and scientists to devote more time to the study of this rare tumor, announcing to a revolution in our understanding, diagnosis and therapy of this cancer. We present here these recent advances, which illustrate the exponential growth of knowledge in the medical field, drawing comparisons with more frequent cancers such as melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma.

The fossil record and evolution of freshwater plants: A review

Palaeobotany applied to freshwater plants is an emerging field of palaeontology. Hydrophytic plants reveal evolutionary trends of their own, clearly distinct from those of the terrestrial and marine flora. During the Precambrian, two groups stand out in the fossil record of freshwater plants: the Cyanobacteria (stromatolites) in benthic environments and the prasinophytes (leiosphaeridian acritarchs) in transitional planktonic environments. During the Palaeozoic, green algae (Chlorococcales, Zygnematales, charophytes and some extinct groups) radiated and developed the widest range of morphostructural patterns known for these groups. Between the Permian and Early Cretaceous, charophytes dominated macrophytic associations, with the consequence that over tens of millions of years, freshwater flora bypassed the dominance of vascular plants on land. During the Early Cretaceous, global extension of the freshwater environments is associated with diversification of the flora, including new charophyte families and the appearance of aquatic angiosperms and ferns for the first time. Mesozoic planktonic assemblages retained their ancestral composition that was dominated by coenobial Chlorococcales, until the appearance of freshwater dinoflagellates in the Early Cretaceous. In the Late Cretaceous, freshwater angiosperms dominated almost all macrophytic communities worldwide. The Tertiary was characterised by the diversification of additional angiosperm and aquatic fern lineages, which resulted in the first differentiation of aquatic plant biogeoprovinces. Phytoplankton also diversified during the Eocene with the development of freshwater diatoms and chrysophytes. Diatoms, which were exclusively marine during tens of millions of years, were dominant over the Chlorococcales during Neogene and in later assemblages. During the Quaternary, aquatic plant communities suffered from the effects of eutrophication, paludification and acidification, which were the result of the combined impact of glaciation and anthropogenic disturbance.

Evolution of source EEG synchronization in early Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) disrupts functional connectivity in distributed cortical networks. We analyzed changes in the S-estimator, a measure of multivariate intraregional synchronization, in electroencephalogram (EEG) source space in 15 mild AD patients versus 15 age-matched controls to evaluate its potential as a marker of AD progression. All participants underwent 2 clinical evaluations and 2 EEG recording sessions on diagnosis and after a year. The main effect of AD was hyposynchronization in the medial temporal and frontal regions and relative hypersynchronization in posterior cingulate, precuneus, cuneus, and parietotemporal cortices. However, the S-estimator did not change over time in either group. This result motivated an analysis of rapidly progressing AD versus slow-progressing patients. Rapidly progressing AD patients showed a significant reduction in synchronization with time, manifest in left frontotemporal cortex. Thus, the evolution of source EEG synchronization over time is correlated with the rate of disease progression and should be considered as a cost-effective AD biomarker.

Joint evolution of dispersal and inbreeding load.

Inbreeding avoidance is often invoked to explain observed patterns of dispersal, and theoretical models indeed point to a possibly important role. However, while inbreeding load is usually assumed constant in these models, it is actually bound to vary dynamically under the combined influences of mutation, drift, and selection and thus to evolve jointly with dispersal. Here we report the results of individual-based stochastic simulations allowing such a joint evolution. We show that strongly deleterious mutations should play no significant role, owing to the low genomic mutation rate for such mutations. Mildly deleterious mutations, by contrast, may create enough heterosis to affect the evolution of dispersal as an inbreeding-avoidance mechanism, but only provided that they are also strongly recessive. If slightly recessive, they will spread among demes and accumulate at the metapopulation level, thus contributing to mutational load, but not to heterosis. The resulting loss of viability may then combine with demographic stochasticity to promote population fluctuations, which foster indirect incentives for dispersal. Our simulations suggest that, under biologically realistic parameter values, deleterious mutations have a limited impact on the evolution of dispersal, which on average exceeds by only one-third the values expected from kin-competition avoidance.

Evolution of spirituality and religiousness in chronic schizophrenia or schizo-affective disorders: A 3 years follow-up study

Purpose : Spirituality and religiousness have been shown to be highly prevalent in patients with schizophrenia. Religion can help instil a positive sense of self, decrease the impact of symptoms and provide social contacts. Religion may also be a source of suffering. In this context, this research explores whether religion remains stable over time. Methods : From an initial cohort of 115 out-patients, 80% completed the 3-years follow-up assessment. In order to study the evolution over time, a hierarchical cluster analysis using average linkage was performed on factorial scores at baseline and follow-up and their differences. A sensitivity analysis was secondarily performed to check if the outcome was influenced by other factors such as changes in mental states using mixed models. Results : Religion was stable over time for 63% patients; positive changes occurred for 20% (i.e., significant increase of religion as a resource or a transformation of negative religion to a positive one) and negative changes for 17% (i.e., decrease of religion as a resource or a transformation of positive religion to a negative one). Change in spirituality and/or religiousness was not associated with social or clinical status, but with reduced subjective quality of life and self-esteem; even after controlling for the influence of age, gender, quality of life and clinical factors at baseline. Conclusions : In this context of patients with chronic schizophrenia, religion appeared to be labile. Qualitative analyses showed that those changes expressed the struggles of patients and suggest that religious issues need to be discussed in clinical settings.

Evolution of a Ladinian (Middle Triassic) intraplatform basin : stratigraphy, microfacies and palaeoecology of the Meride Limestone (Monte San Giorgio, Canton Ticino, Southern Switzerland)

The Monte San Giorgio (Southern Alps, Ticino, Switzerland) is the most important locality in the world for vertebrates dating back to the Middle Triassic. For this reason it was registered in 2003 as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. One of the objectives of this doctoral thesis was to fill some of the cognitive gaps regarding the Ladinian succession, including in particular the San Giorgio Dolomite and the Meride Limestone. In order to achieve this, the entire succession, more than 600 metres thick, was measured and sampled. Biostratigraphic research based on new finds of fossil invertebrates and microfossils and on the palynological analysis of the entire section was integrated with single-zircon U-Pb dating of volcanic ash layers intercalated in the carbonate succession. This enabled a redefinition of the bio-chronostratigraphic and geochronologic framework of the succession, which encompasses a significantly shorter time interval than previously held. The Ladinian section extends from the E. curionii Ammonoid Zone (Early Fassanian) to the P. archelaus Ammonoid Zone (Early Longobardian). The age of the classic fossiliferous levels of the Meride Limestone, rich in organic matter and containing vertebrate fossils which are known all over the world, was defined in both biostratigraphic and geochronologic terms. The presumed stratigraphie significance of the pachypleurosaurid reptiles found in such levels is called into question by new finds. These fossiliferous horizons were found to correspond to the main volcanoclastic intervals of the Buchenstein Formation (Middle and Upper Pietra Verde). Thus, a correlation with the Bagolino Section (Italy) containing the GSSP for the base of the Ladinian was proposed. Bulk sedimentation rates in the studied succession average 200 m/Myr and therefore prove to be 20 times higher than those of the South-Alpine pelagic basins. These values express high carbonate productivity from the surrounding platforms on one hand, and on the other a marked subsidence of the basin. Only in the intervals consisting of laminated limestones did the sedimentation rates drop to average values of around 30 m/Myr. The distribution of organic and inorganic facies appears to be the consequence of relative variations in sea-level. The laminated and organic-matter- rich intervals of the Meride Limestone are linked to a relative sea-level drop which favoured dysoxic to anoxic bottom-water conditions, coupled with an increase in runoff, perhaps due to recurrent explosive volcanic activity. The transient development under dysoxic conditions of monospecific benthic meio-/macrofaunas was documented. Organic matter suggests a predominant origin due to benthic bacterial activity, as can be witnessed in alveolar structures typical of exopolymeric substances secreted by bacteria within microbial mats. A microbial contribution to the carbonate (peloidal) precipitation was documented. The protective effect exerted by these microbial mats is also indicated as the main taphonomic factor contributing to the excellent preservation of vertebrate fossils. A radiolarian assemblage discovered in the lower part of the section (earliest Ladinian, E. curionii Zone) suggests the transient existence of open-marine but not deep-water connections with the tethyan pelagic basins. It shows marked similarities to the faunas typical of the late Anisian, suggesting therefore a low resolution power provided by radiolarian biostratigraphy in recognizing the Anisian/Ladinian boundary. The present thesis describes a new species of conifer (Elatocladus cassinae), a new species of insect (Dasyleptus triassicus) and seven new species of radiolarians (Eptingium danieli, Eptingium neriae, Parentactinosphaera eoladinica, Sepsagon ticinensis, Sepsagon? valporinae, Novamuria wirzi and Pessagnollum? hexaspinosum). In addition, following revision of the type material of already existent taxa, four new genera of radiolarians are introduced: Bernoulliella, Eohexastylus, Ticinosphaera and Lahmosphaera.

Self-organized evolution in a socio-economic environment

We propose a general scenario to analyze technological changes in socio-economic environments. We illustrate the ideas with a model that incorporating the main trends is simple enough to extract analytical results and, at the same time, sufficiently complex to display a rich dynamic behavior. Our study shows that there exists a macroscopic observable that is maximized in a regime where the system is critical, in the sense that the distribution of events follow power laws. Computer simulations show that, in addition, the system always self-organizes to achieve the optimal performance in the stationary state.

Evolution of anaesthesia care and related events between 1996 and 2010 in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Anaesthesia Databank Switzerland (ADS) is a voluntary data registry introduced in 1996. Its ultimate goal is to promote quality in anaesthesiology. METHODS: The ADS registry analyses routinely recorded adverse events and provides benchmark comparisons between anaesthesia departments. Data collection comprises a set of 31 variables organised into three modules, one mandatory and two optional. RESULTS: In 2010, the database included 2,158,735 anaesthetic procedures. Over time, the proportions of older patients have increased, the largest group being aged 50-64 years. The percentage of patients with American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) status 1 has decreased while the percentage of ASA status 2 or 3 patients has increased. The most frequent comorbidities recorded were hypertension (21%), smoking (16%), allergy (15%) and obesity (12%). Between 1996 and 2010, 125,579 adverse events were recorded, of which 34% were cardiovascular, 7% respiratory, 39% technical and 20% non-specific. The most severe events were resuscitation (50%), oliguria (22%), myocardial ischaemia (17%) and haemorrhage (10%). CONCLUSION: Routine ADS data collection contributes to the monitoring of trends in anaesthesia care in Switzerland. The ADS system has proved to be usable in daily practice, although this remains a constant challenge that is highly dependent on local quality management and quality culture. Nevertheless, success in developing routine regular feedback to users to initiate discussions about anaesthetic events would most likely help strengthen departmental culture regarding safety and quality of care.

Exact temporal evolution for some non-linear diffusion process

Exact solutions to FokkerPlanck equations with nonlinear drift are considered. Applications of these exact solutions for concrete models are studied. We arrive at the conclusion that for certain drifts we obtain divergent moments (and infinite relaxation time) if the diffusion process can be extended without any obstacle to the whole space. But if we introduce a potential barrier that limits the diffusion process, moments converge with a finite relaxation time.

Evolution of the Pelagonian carbonate platform complex and the adjacent oceanic realm in response to plate tectonic forcing (Late Triassic and Jurassic), Evvoia, Greece

The Late Triassic and Jurassic platform and the oceanic complexes in Evvoia, Greece, share a complementary plate-tectonic evolution. Shallow marine carbonate deposition responded to changing rates of subsidence and uplift, whilst the adjacent ocean underwent spreading, and then convergence, collision and finally obduction over the platform complex. Late Triassic ocean spreading correlated with platform subsidence and the formation of a long-persisting peritidal passive-margin platform. Incipient drowning occurred from the Sinemurian to the late Middle Jurassic. This subsidence correlated with intra-oceanic subduction and plate convergence that led to supra-subduction calc-alkaline magmatism and the formation of a primitive volcanic arc. During the Middle Jurassic, plate collision caused arc uplift above the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) in the oceanic realm, and related thrust-faulting, on the platform, led to sub-aerial exposures. Patch-reefs developed there during the Late Oxfordian to Kimmeridgian. Advanced oceanic nappe-loading caused platform drowning below the CCD during the Tithonian, which is documented by intercalations of reefal turbidites with non-carbonate radiolarites. Radiolarites and bypass-turbidites, consisting of siliciclastic greywacke, terminate the platform succession beneath the emplaced oceanic nappe during late Tithonian to Valanginian time.

Environment and dispersal paths override life strategies and residence time in determining regional patterns of invasion by alien plants.

We describe a novel dissimilarity framework to analyze spatial patterns of species diversity and illustrate it with alien plant invasions in Northern Portugal. We used this framework to test the hypothesis that patterns of alien invasive plant species richness and composition are differently affected by differences in climate, land use and landscape connectivity (i.e. Geographic distance as a proxy and vectorial objects that facilitate dispersal such as roads and rivers) between pairs of localities at the regional scale. We further evaluated possible effects of plant life strategies (Grime's C-S-R) and residence time. Each locality consisted of a 1 km(2) landscape mosaic in which all alien invasive species were recorded by visiting all habitat types. Multi-model inference revealed that dissimilarity in species richness is more influenced by environmental distance (particularly climate), whereas geographic distance (proxies for dispersal limitations) is more important to explain dissimilarity in species composition, with a prevailing role for ecotones and roads. However, only minor differences were found in the responses of the three C-S-R strategies. Some effect of residence time was found, but only for dissimilarity in species richness. Our results also indicated that environmental conditions (e.g. climate conditions) limit the number of alien species invading a given site, but that the presence of dispersal corridors determines the paths of invasion and therefore the pool of species reaching each site. As geographic distances (e.g. ecotones and roads) tend to explain invasion at our regional scale highlights the need to consider the management of alien invasions in the context of integrated landscape planning. Alien species management should include (but not be limited to) the mitigation of dispersal pathways along linear infrastructures. Our results therefore highlight potentially useful applications of the novel multimodel framework to the anticipation and management of plant invasions. (C) 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Clinical evolution of sacral stress fractures: influence of additional pelvic fractures

To evaluate the clinical evolution of sacral stress fractures in relation to the scintigraphic pattern and the presence of additional pelvic fractures. METHODS--This was a retrospective study of 14 patients with sacral fractures. RESULTS--Six patients had additional pelvic fractures. Four bone scintigraphic patterns were found. The resolution of symptoms was longer in patients with associated pelvic fractures (30 weeks v three weeks). No relation was found between the bone scintigraphic pattern and the time of evolution. CONCLUSION--Associated pelvic fractures delay the resolution of symptoms in patients with sacral fractures, regardless of scintigraphic pattern.

Clinical evolution of sacral stress fractures: influence of additional pelvic fractures

To evaluate the clinical evolution of sacral stress fractures in relation to the scintigraphic pattern and the presence of additional pelvic fractures. METHODS--This was a retrospective study of 14 patients with sacral fractures. RESULTS--Six patients had additional pelvic fractures. Four bone scintigraphic patterns were found. The resolution of symptoms was longer in patients with associated pelvic fractures (30 weeks v three weeks). No relation was found between the bone scintigraphic pattern and the time of evolution. CONCLUSION--Associated pelvic fractures delay the resolution of symptoms in patients with sacral fractures, regardless of scintigraphic pattern.