Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (similar to 25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

A Theoretical and Experimental Study of Resonance in a High Performance Engine Intake System: Part 1

The unsteady gas dynamic phenomena in engine intake systems of the type found in racecars have been examined. In particular, the resonant tuning effects, including cylinder-to-cylinder power variations, which can occur as a result of the interaction between an engine and its airbox have been considered. Frequency analysis of the output from a Virtual 4-Stroke 1D engine simulation was used to characterise the forcing function applied by an engine to an airbox. A separate computational frequency sweeping technique, which employed the CFD package FLUENT, was used to determine the natural frequencies of virtual airboxes in isolation from an engine. Using this technique, an airbox with a natural frequency at 75 Hz was designed for a Yamaha R6 4-cylinder motorcycle engine. The existence of an airbox natural frequency at 75 Hz was subsequently confirmed by an experimental frequency sweeping technique carried out on the engine test bed. A coupled 1D/3D analysis which employed the engine simulation package Virtual 4-Stroke and the CFD package FLUENT, was used to model the combined engine and airbox system. The coupled 1D/3D analysis predicted a 75 Hz resonance of the airbox at an engine speed of 9000 rpm. This frequency was the induction frequency for a single cylinder. An airbox was fabricated and tested on the engine. Static pressure was recorded at a grid of points in the airbox as the engine was swept through a speed range of 3000 to 10000 rpm. The measured engine speed corresponding to resonance in the airbox agreed well with the predicted values. There was also good correlation between the amplitude and phase of the pressure traces recorded within the airbox and the 1D/3D predictions.

A practical miniature long-term bone marrow culture system for investigating early myelodysplasia

A method was devised to grow haemopoietic cells in long-term bone marrow culture (LTBMC) which requires only 1 x 10(6) cells/culture. Such miniature cultures were used to study growth patterns of marrow from patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Consistent differences in LTBMC cellularity and cellular composition were noted between MDS and normal marrow. These differences were accentuated by rGM-CSF. The criteria which distinguished between and MDS marrows were: cell count at weeks 1 and 4, % neutrophils and % blasts. In 10 patients with unexplained macrocytosis or pancytopenia miniature LTBMC results clearly segregated into either 'normal' or 'MDS' growth patterns. Miniature LTBMC with rGM-CSF may therefore be a useful diagnostic test for early MDS.

Trait-mediated indirect interactions in a marine intertidal system as quantified by functional responses

Studies of trait-mediated indirect interactions (TMIIs) typically focus on effects higher predators have on per capita consumption by intermediate consumers of a third, basal prey resource. TMIIs are usually evidenced by changes in feeding rates of intermediate consumers and/or differences in densities of this third species. However, understanding and predicting effects of TMIIs on population stability of such basal species requires examination of the type and magnitude of the functional responses exhibited towards them. Here, in a marine intertidal system consisting of a higher-order fish predator, the shanny Lipophrys pholis, an intermediate predator, the amphipod Echinogammarus marinus, and a basal prey resource, the isopod Jaera nordmanni, we detected TMIIs, demonstrating the importance of habitat complexity in such interactions, by deriving functional responses and exploring consequences for prey population stability. Echinogammarus marinus reacted to fish predator diet cues by reducing activity, a typical anti-predator response, but did not alter habitat use. Basal prey, Jaera nordmanni, did not respond to fish diet cues with respect to activity, distribution or aggregation behaviour. Echinogammarus marinus exhibited type II functional responses towards J. nordmanni in simple habitat, but type III functional responses in complex habitat. However, while predator cue decreased the magnitude of the type II functional response in simple habitat, it increased the magnitude of the type III functional response in complex habitat. These findings indicate that, in simple habitats, TMIIs may drive down consumption rates within type II responses, however, this interaction may remain de-stabilising for prey populations. Conversely, in complex habitats, TMIIs may strengthen regulatory influences of intermediate consumers on prey populations, whilst potentially maintaining prey population stability. We thus highlight that TMIIs can have unexpected and complex ramifications throughout communities, but can be unravelled by considering effects on intermediate predator functional response types and magnitudes.

Touching at a Distance: Resistance, Tactility, Proxemics and the Development of a Hybrid Virtual/Physical Performance System

This is a paper about resistance and affordance as they relate to music-making in the most extended sense, and perhaps about empathy if this is understood as a capacity to ‘read’ the resistances and affordances of objects, bodies, people and environments. It proceeds from a set of broad working assumptions which inform one individual’s musical practice, via a description a musical-instrument making project which is a hybrid of physical and virtual elements and is designed to test those assumptions, to a speculative finale in which it is suggested that musicking might, in some circumstances, be regarded in itself as a form of resistance. It moves from the intimate and personal, through what might be regarded as local concerns to more global observation, prefiguring the structure of the performance system it describes: the Virtual-Physical Feedback flute

Functional Complexity: The source of value in biodiversity.

Biodiversity may be seen as a scientific measure of the complexity of a biological system, implying an information basis. Complexity cannot be directly valued, so economists have tried to define the services it provides, though often just valuing the services of 'key' species. Here we provide a new definition of biodiversity as a measure of functional information, arguing that complexity embodies meaningful information as Gregory Bateson defined it. We argue that functional information content (FIC) is the potentially valuable component of total (algorithmic) information content (AIC), as it alone determines biological fitness and supports ecosystem services. Inspired by recent extensions to the Noah's Ark problem, we show how FIC/AIC can be calculated to measure the degree of substitutability within an ecological community. Establishing substitutability is an essential foundation for valuation. From it, we derive a way to rank whole communities by Indirect Use Value, through quantifying the relation between system complexity and the production rate of ecosystem services. Understanding biodiversity as information evidently serves as a practical interface between economics and ecological science. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

A single microphone capillary-based system for measuring the complex input impedance of musical wind instruments

Capillary-based systems for measuring the input impedance of musical wind instruments were first developed in the mid-20th century and remain in widespread use today. In this paper, the basic principles and assumptions underpinning the design of such systems are examined. Inexpensive modifications to a capillary-based impedance measurement set-up made possible due to advances in computing and data acquisition technology are discussed. The modified set-up is able to measure both impedance magnitude and impedance phase even though it only contains one microphone. In addition, a method of calibration is described that results in a significant improvement in accuracy when measuring high impedance objects on the modified capillary-based system. The method involves carrying out calibration measurements on two different objects whose impedances are well-known theoretically. The benefits of performing two calibration measurements (as opposed to the one calibration measurement that has been traditionally used) are demonstrated experimentally through input impedance measurements on two test objects and a Boosey and Hawkes oboe. © S. Hirzel Verlag · EAA.

Assessment of cell-mediated immunity in a British population using multiple skin test antigens

An in vivo method of assessing the competence of the cell-mediated immune system (Multitest CMI) was used in 200 healthy volunteers (age range 17-88 years). The profile of reactivity to seven individual antigens was determined. A positive reaction was obtained in 96.5% of the subjects who reacted positively to at least one antigen with 78% reacting to two or more antigens. The number of positive responses and the degree of reactivity was significantly reduced in elderly subjects and in females aged 17-65 years. The Multitest CMI system provides a rapid and convenient method of assessing cell-mediated immunity (CMI) in vivo and could have a wide range of applications in the investigation of immunological, infective and neoplastic conditions.

Measuring icon complexity: An automated analysis

Measures of icon designs rely heavily on surveys of the perceptions of population samples. Thus, measuring the extent to which changes in the structure of an icon will alter its perceived complexity can be costly and slow. An automated system capable of producing reliable estimates of perceived complexity could reduce development costs and time. Measures of icon complexity developed by Garcia, Badre, and Stasko (1994) and McDougall, Curry, and de Bruijn (1999) were correlated with six icon properties measured using Matlab (MathWorks, 2001) software, which uses image-processing techniques to measure icon properties. The six icon properties measured were icon foreground, the number of objects in an icon, the number of holes in those objects, and two calculations of icon edges and homogeneity in icon structure. The strongest correlates with human judgments of perceived icon complexity (McDougall et al., 1999) were structural variability (r(s) = .65) and edge information (r(s) =.64).

VQ tree search system based on bit level systolic arrays

A bit-level systolic array system for performing a binary tree vector quantization (VQ) codebook search is described. This is based on a highly regular VLSI building block circuit. The system in question exhibits a very high data rate suitable for a range of real-time applications. A technique is described which reduces the storage requirements of such a system by 50%, with a corresponding decrease in hardware complexity.

Detection of changes of the optic disc in glaucomatous eyes:Clinical examination and image analysis with the Topcon Imagenet system

Purpose: This study was designed to evaluate the clinical agreement in the detection of optic disc changes and the ability of computerized image analysis to detect glaucomatous deterioration of the optic disc. Methods: Pairs of stereophotographs of 35 glaucomatous optic discs taken 5 years apart and of 5 glaucomatous discs photographed twice on the same day. Two glaucoma specialists examined the pairs of stereophotographs (35 cases and 5 controls) in a masked manner and judged whether the optic disc showed changes in the optic disc compatible with progression of glaucomatous damage. The stereophotographs of the five optic discs photographed twice on the same day (which by definition did not change) and of five cases judged to have deteriorated by both glaucoma specialists were analyzed by computerized image analysis with the Topcon ImageNet system. Intra- and inter-observer agreement in the detection of optic disc changes (evaluated using kappa statistic), and changes in the rim area to disc area ratio (evaluated using descriptive statistics and paired t-test). Results: Intra-observer agreement had a kappa value of 0.75 for observer 1 and 0.60 for the observer 2. Inter-observer agreement between the glaucoma specialists had a kappa value of 0.60. The image analyzer did not discriminate between controls and cases with clinically apparent glaucomatous change of the optic disc. Conclusion: Clinical agreement in detecting changes in the optic disc was moderate to substantial. Computerized image analysis with the Topcon ImageNet system appeared not to be useful in detecting glaucomatous changes of the optic disc.

Co-operating retrodirective system

Practical demonstration of the operational advantages gained through the use of a co-operating retrodirective array (RDA) basestation and Van Atta node arrangements is discussed. The system exploits a number of inherent RDA features to provide analogue real time multifunctional operation at low physical complexity. An active dual-conversion four element RDA is used as the power distribution source (basestation) while simultaneously achieving a receive sensitivity level of ??109 dBm and 3 dB automatic beam steering angle of ??45??. When mobile units are each equipped with a semi-passive four element Van Atta array, it is shown mobile device orientation issues are mitigated and optimal energy transfer can occur because of automatic beam formation resulting from retrodirective self-pointing action. We show that operation in multipath rich environments with or without line of sight acts to reduce average power density limits in the operating volume with high energy density occurring at mobile nodes sites only. The system described can be used as a full duplex ASK communications link, or, as a means for remote node charging by wireless means, thereby enhancing deployment opportunities between unstabilised moving platforms.

Evaluating a Computer System that Converses Fluently with People

The SAL system embodies a new kind of human-computer interaction, where a person and a computer carry out a fluent, emotionally coloured conversation. Because that kind of capability is new, evaluating systems that have it is a new challenge. This paper outlines techniques that have been developed to evaluate SAL interactions, and uses the case to highlight the range of variables that become relevant in dealing with systems of this order of complexity.

Man-in-the-Middle Attack Test-bed Investigating Cyber-security Vulnerabilities in Smart Grid SCADA Systems

The increased complexity and interconnectivity of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems in the Smart Grid has exposed them to a wide range of cyber-security issues, and there are a multitude of potential access points for cyber attackers. This paper presents a SCADA-specific cyber-security test-bed which contains SCADA software and communication infrastructure. This test-bed is used to investigate an Address Resolution Protocol (ARP) spoofing based man-in-the-middle attack. Finally, the paper proposes a future work plan which focuses on applying intrusion detection and prevention technology to address cyber-security issues in SCADA systems.

Rule-Based Intrusion Detection System for SCADA Networks

Increased complexity and interconnectivity of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems in Smart Grids potentially means greater susceptibility to malicious attackers. SCADA systems with legacy communication infrastructure have inherent cyber-security vulnerabilities as these systems were originally designed with little consideration of cyber threats. In order to improve cyber-security of SCADA networks, this paper presents a rule-based Intrusion Detection System (IDS) using a Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) method, which includes signature-based and model-based approaches tailored for SCADA systems. The proposed signature-based rules can accurately detect several known suspicious or malicious attacks. In addition, model-based detection is proposed as a complementary method to detect unknown attacks. Finally, proposed intrusion detection approaches for SCADA networks are implemented and verified using a ruled based method.