836 resultados para Survey of professional forecasters


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The transposition of the São Francisco River is considered one of the greatest engineering works in Brazil of all time since it will cross an extensive agricultural region of continental dimensions, involving environmental impacts, water, soil, irrigation, water payment and other multidisciplinary themes. Taking into account its importance, this subject was incorporated into a discipline of UFSCar (Federal University of São Carlos - Brazil) named "Pollution and Environmental Impacts". It was noted strong reaction against the project, even before the presentation. To allow a critical analysis, the first objective was to compile the main technical data and environmental impacts. The second objective was to detect the three most important aspects that cause reaction, concluding for the following reasons: assumption that the volume of water to be transferred was much greater than it actually is proposed in the project; lack of knowledge about similar project already done in Brazil; the idea that the artificial canal to be built was much broader than that proposed by the project. The participants' opinion about "volume to be transferred" was raised quantitatively four times: 2-undergraduate students; 1-graduate; 1-outside community. The average resulted 14 times larger than that proposed in the project, significant according to t-test. It was concluded that the reaction to water transfer project is due in part to the ignorance combined with a preconceived idea that tend to overestimate the magnitude of environmental impacts.

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This study is made as a part of the Chembaltic (Risks of Maritime Transportation of Chemicals in Baltic Sea) project which gathers information on the chemicals transported in the Baltic Sea. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of handling volumes of liquid bulk chemicals (including liquefied gases) in the Baltic Sea ports and to find out what the most transported liquid bulk chemicals in the Baltic Sea are. Oil and oil products are also viewed in this study but only in a general level. Oils and oil products may also include chemical-related substances (e.g. certain bio-fuels which belong to MARPOL annex II category) in some cargo statistics. Chemicals in packaged form are excluded from the study. Most of the facts about the transport volumes of chemicals presented in this study are based on secondary written sources of Scandinavian, Russian, Baltic and international origin. Furthermore, statistical sources, academic journals, periodicals, newspapers and in later years also different homepages on the Internet have been used as sources of information. Chemical handling volumes in Finnish ports were examined in more detail by using a nationwide vessel traffic system called PortNet. Many previous studies have shown that the Baltic Sea ports are annually handling more than 11 million tonnes of liquid chemicals transported in bulk. Based on this study, it appears that the number may be even higher. The liquid bulk chemicals account for approximately 4 % of the total amount of liquid bulk cargoes handled in the Baltic Sea ports. Most of the liquid bulk chemicals are handled in Finnish and Swedish ports and their proportion of all liquid chemicals handled in the Baltic Sea is altogether over 50 %. The most handled chemicals in the Baltic Sea ports are methanol, sodium hydroxide solution, ammonia, sulphuric and phosphoric acid, pentanes, aromatic free solvents, xylenes, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and ethanol and ethanol solutions. All of these chemicals are handled at least hundred thousand tonnes or some of them even over 1 million tonnes per year, but since chemical-specific data from all the Baltic Sea countries is not available, the exact tonnages could not be calculated in this study. In addition to these above-mentioned chemicals, there are also other high volume chemicals handled in the Baltic Sea ports (e.g. ethylene, propane and butane) but exact tonnes are missing. Furthermore, high amounts of liquid fertilisers, such as solution of urea and ammonium nitrate in water, are transported in the Baltic Sea. The results of the study can be considered indicative. Updated information about transported chemicals in the Baltic Sea is the first step in the risk assessment of the chemicals. The chemical-specific transportation data help to target hazard or e.g. grounding/collision risk evaluations to chemicals that are handled most or have significant environmental hazard potential. Data gathered in this study will be used as background information in later stages of the Chembaltic project when the risks of the chemicals transported in the Baltic Sea are assessed to highlight the chemicals that require special attention from an environmental point of view in potential marine accident situations in the Baltic Sea area.

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The aim of this study was evaluate the risk factors for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) seroprevalence in sheep in the North of Portugal. The effects on seroprevalence of several variables such as individual characteristics, management practices, farm characteristics, animal health, and available veterinary services were evaluated. This information was then used in a multivariable logistic regression model in order to identify risk factors for Map seropositivity. Univariable analysis was used to screen the variables used in the logistic regression model. Variables that showed p values of <0.15 were retained for the multivariable analysis. Fifteen variables were associated with paratuberculosis in univariable analysis. The multivariable logistic regression model identified a number of variables as risk factors for seropositivity like sheep pure local and/or a cross of a local breed (OR=2.02), herd size with 31-60 head (OR=2.14), culling during the Spring-Summer season (OR=1.69) and the use of an anti-parasitic treatment such as Ivermectin as the only anti-parasitic medication (OR=5.60). Potential risk factors identified in this study support current recommendations for the control of paratuberculosis.

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Despite the importance of human taeniasis/bovine cysticercosis for public and animal health and the economy, its actual epidemiological status in Brazil is not well-studied. We sought to assess the epidemiological profile of this zoonosis in the rural area of Viçosa County, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The prevalence of bovine cysticercosis was 0.42%, whereas no case of human taeniasis was diagnosed. Factors favoring the persistence of zoonosis were identified. These included the supply of untreated water to animals, animals raised for slaughter without sanitary supervision, poor mechanization of raising techniques, and the use of untreated water for human consumption. Bovine meat for human consumption acquired in the city or from the farm itself was characterized as a risk factor for bovine cysticercosis (Odds Ratio (OR) =16.77; p<0.05). Nevertheless, the families on the investigated farms did apply several appropriate measures to control this disease, such as the virtual lack of open sewers and the consumption of well-cooked meat. The presence of bovine cysticercosis cases, and the factors favoring its persistence, point to the need for constant epidemiological and sanitary surveillance in this county.

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AbstractPorcine teschovirus (PTV), porcine sapelovirus (PSV), and enterovirus G (EV-G) are infectious agents specific to pig host species that are endemically spread worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the natural infection by these porcine enteric picornaviruses in wild boars (Sus scrofa scrofa) of Paraná state, Brazil, and to evaluate peccaries (Pecari tajacu and Tayassu pecari) as alternative host species for these viruses. Fecal samples (n=36) from asymptomatic wild boars (n=22) with ages ranging from 2 to 7 months old (young, n=14) and 2 to 4 years old (adult, n=8) and from peccaries (6 to 8 months old, n=14) were collected from a farm and a zoo, respectively, both located in Paraná state. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and nested-PCR (n-PCR) assays targeting the 5'non-translated region of the virus genome were used for screening the viruses. Porcine enteric picornaviruses were detected in 12 out of the 22 wild boar fecal samples. According to each of the viruses, EV-G was most frequently (11/22, 50%) detected, followed by PTV (10/22, 45.5%) and PSV (4/22, 18.2%). Regarding the age groups, young wild boars were more frequently (9/14, 64.3%) infected with PTV, PSV, and EV-G than adult animals (3/8, 37.4%). One n-PCR amplified product for each of the viruses was submitted to sequencing analysis and the nucleotide sequences were compared with the related viruses, which showed similarities varying from 97.7% to 100% for PTV, 92.4% to 96.2% for PSV, and 87.1% to 100% for EV-G. Peccaries tested negative for the viruses and in this study they did not represent infection reservoirs. This study is the first to report the molecular detection of PTV, PSV, and EV-G from captive wild boars in a South American country and the first to screen peccaries as alternative host species for porcine enteric picornavirus.

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At present stage the analytical design of wave tolerance for floating structures and vessels is still imperfect due to the mutually complex and nonlinear phenomena between structures and waves. Wave tolerance design is usually carried out through iterative evaluations of results from model tests in a wave basin, and this is done in order to reach a final structural design. The wave generation has then become an important technology in the field of the coastal and ocean engineering. This paper summarizes the facilities of a test basin and a wave maker in Japan and also surveys the methodology of the generation of ocean waves in a test basin.

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Herbicide resistance was reported in Brazil almost ten years ago. One of the main weeds with herbicide resistance is wild poinsettia (Euphorbia heterophylla). This work evaluates the distribution of ALS-resistant E. heterophylla in two states in southern Brazil and determines the major contributing management causes for weed resistance selection in the area. E. heterophylla seeds from 148 sites located in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul were sampled during 2001 and 2002. Farmers provided specific site data for weed control, tillage system, crop rotation and harvesting operations during previous years. ALS resistant E. heterophylla biotypes were found widely distributed in the survey area. Data analysis suggests seed dissemination is unlikely to explain the widespread distribution of resistance. The most probable factor for the selection of the resistant E. heterophylla is the persistent high use of ALS-inhibiting herbicides over time. Indirect evidence is presented demonstrating the need to educate legislators and farmers about the importance of herbicide mixtures as a strategy to prevent herbicide resistance.

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Results of subgroup analysis (SA) reported in randomized clinical trials (RCT) cannot be adequately interpreted without information about the methods used in the study design and the data analysis. Our aim was to show how often inaccurate or incomplete reports occur. First, we selected eight methodological aspects of SA on the basis of their importance to a reader in determining the confidence that should be placed in the author's conclusions regarding such analysis. Then, we reviewed the current practice of reporting these methodological aspects of SA in clinical trials in four leading journals, i.e., the New England Journal of Medicine, the Journal of the American Medical Association, the Lancet, and the American Journal of Public Health. Eight consecutive reports from each journal published after July 1, 1998 were included. Of the 32 trials surveyed, 17 (53%) had at least one SA. Overall, the proportion of RCT reporting a particular methodological aspect ranged from 23 to 94%. Information on whether the SA preceded/followed the analysis was reported in only 7 (41%) of the studies. Of the total possible number of items to be reported, NEJM, JAMA, Lancet and AJPH clearly mentioned 59, 67, 58 and 72%, respectively. We conclude that current reporting of SA in RCT is incomplete and inaccurate. The results of such SA may have harmful effects on treatment recommendations if accepted without judicious scrutiny. We recommend that editors improve the reporting of SA in RCT by giving authors a list of the important items to be reported.

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Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

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Studies of cooking-generated NO2 effects are rare in occupational epidemiology. In the present study, we evaluated the lung function of professional cooks exposed to NO2 in hospital kitchens. We performed spirometry in 37 cooks working in four hospital kitchens and estimated the predicted FVC, FEV1 and FEF25-75, based on age, sex, race, weight, and height, according to Knudson standards. NO2 measurements were obtained for 4 consecutive days during 4 different periods at 20-day intervals in each kitchen. Measurements were performed inside and outside the kitchens, simultaneously using Palm diffusion tubes. A time/exposure indicator was defined as representative of the cumulative exposure of each cook. No statistically significant effect of NO2 exposure on FVC was found. Each year of work as a cook corresponded to a decrease in predicted FEV1 of 2.5% (P = 0.046) for the group as a whole. When smoking status and asthma were included in the analysis the effect of time/exposure decreased about 10% and lost statistical significance. On predicted FEF25-75, a decrease of 3.5% (P = 0.035) was observed for the same group and the inclusion of controllers for smoking status and asthma did not affect the effects of time/exposure on pulmonary function parameter. After a 10-year period of work as cooks the participants of the study may present decreases in both predicted FEV1 and FEF25-75 that can reach 20 and 30%, respectively. The present study showed small but statistically significant adverse effects of gas stove exposure on the lung function of professional cooks.

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The incidence of the trichothecenes deoxynivalenol (DON), diacetoxyscirpenol (DAS), and T2 toxin (T2) in popcorn was investigated in 90 samples, belonging to 2 commercial and 28 experimental hybrids planted at experimental stations of the Agronomic Institute of Campinas at the locations of Campinas, Mococa, and Capão Bonito, and in 15 samples of popcorn, 9 branded and 6 unbranded, acquired from commercial outlets in the city of Campinas, SP. The samples were analyzed by gas chromatography with flame ionization detector combined with an alumina:carbon cleanup column. The detection limits were 30ng/g for DON, 50ng/g for DAS, and 40ng/g for T2. Five samples were contaminated with DON, four of them commercial and one from an experimental cultivar. The level of contamination in the commercial samples ranged from 30 to 40ng/g. The sample from the experimental cultivar contained 770ng/g DON. DAS and T2 were not detected in any of the popcorn samples analyzed.

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Ontology matching is an important task when data from multiple data sources is integrated. Problems of ontology matching have been studied widely in the researchliterature and many different solutions and approaches have been proposed alsoin commercial software tools. In this survey, well-known approaches of ontologymatching, and its subtype schema matching, are reviewed and compared. The aimof this report is to summarize the knowledge about the state-of-the-art solutionsfrom the research literature, discuss how the methods work on different application domains, and analyze pros and cons of different open source and academic tools inthe commercial world.

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Simplification of highly detailed CAD models is an important step when CAD models are visualized or by other means utilized in augmented reality applications. Without simplification, CAD models may cause severe processing and storage is- sues especially in mobile devices. In addition, simplified models may have other advantages like better visual clarity or improved reliability when used for visual pose tracking. The geometry of CAD models is invariably presented in form of a 3D mesh. In this paper, we survey mesh simplification algorithms in general and focus especially to algorithms that can be used to simplify CAD models. We test some commonly known algorithms with real world CAD data and characterize some new CAD related simplification algorithms that have not been surveyed in previous mesh simplification reviews.

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Tomatoes are highly susceptible to fungi contamination in the field, during transportation, processing, and storage. Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus parasiticus have been isolated from tomatoes and tomato products, and both fungi species can produce aflatoxin, mycotoxin with hepatotoxic, carcinogenic, teratogenic, and mutagenic effects on all animal species tested so far. In order to verify a possible aflatoxin contamination of tomato products commercialized in Brazil, 63 samples of tomato products (pulp, paste, purée, ketchup, dehydrated tomatoes, and dried tomatoes preserved in oil) produced in 5 Brazilian states and 1 imported sample (ketchup), totalizing 29 brands, were analyzed by thin layer chromatography. The analytical method showed an average recovery of 86% for all aflatoxins at two spiking levels. The limits of detection for the aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2 varied with the type of the product ranging from 2 to 7 µg/kg. Aflatoxins were not detected in any evaluated sample indicating that they did not pose a risk to human health since there was no invasion of raw materials by toxigenic fungi or no conditions for toxin production.