966 resultados para Subgrid-scale Modelling


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This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modelling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models makes little sense when one territorial unit, Bogota, accounts for over one quarter of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Colombia`s increasing involvement with external markets. The paper builds on the Centro de Estudios de Economia Regional (CEER) model, a spatial CGE model of the Colombian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results confirm the asymmetric impacts that trade liberalization has on a spatial economy in which one region, Bogota, is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis--vis the rest of Colombia. The analysis also reveals the importance of different hypotheses on factor mobility and the role of price effects to better understand the consequences of trade opening in a developing economy.

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This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

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This study aims to elaborate a hierarchical risk scale (HRS) of agricultural and cattle breeding activities and to classify the main agricultural crops and cattle breeding activities according to their risk levels. The research is characterized as exploratory and quantitative and was based on previous risk assessment (MARKOWITZ, 1952) and capital cost calculation (SHARPE, 1964) work for other business segments. The calculations on agricultural and cattle breeding data were processed for the period from 2000 to 2006. The used methods considers simplifications and adaptations needed to achieve the proposed objective. The final result, pioneering and embryonic, provides support to improve the management of these activities that are so essential to produce food for society.

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Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

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A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

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Computational models complement laboratory experimentation for efficient identification of MHC-binding peptides and T-cell epitopes. Methods for prediction of MHC-binding peptides include binding motifs, quantitative matrices, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, and molecular modelling. Models derived by these methods have been successfully used for prediction of T-cell epitopes in cancer, autoimmunity, infectious disease, and allergy. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures and performed according to strict standards. This requires careful selection of data for model building, and adequate testing and validation. A range of web-based databases and MHC-binding prediction programs are available. Although some available prediction programs for particular MHC alleles have reasonable accuracy, there is no guarantee that all models produce good quality predictions. In this article, we present and discuss a framework for modelling, testing, and applications of computational methods used in predictions of T-cell epitopes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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The habit of inducing plant galls has evolved multiple times among insects but most species diversity occurs in only a few groups, such as gall midges and gall wasps. This phylogenetic clustering may reflect adaptive radiations in insect groups in which the trait has evolved. Alternatively, multiple independent origins of galling may suggest a selective advantage to the habit. We use DNA sequence data to examine the origins of galling among the most speciose group of gall-inducing scale insects, the eriococcids. We determine that the galling habit has evolved multiple times, including four times in Australian taxa, suggesting that there has been a selective advantage to galling in Australia. Additionally, although most gall-inducing eriococcid species occur on Myrtaceae, we found that lineages feeding on Myrtaceae are no more likely to have evolved the galling habit than those feeding on other plant groups. However, most gall-inducing species-richness is clustered in only two clades (Apiomorpha and Lachnodius + Opisthoscelis), all of which occur exclusively on Eucalyptus s.s. The Eriococcidae and the large genus Eriococcus were determined to be non-monophyletic and each will require revision. (C) 2004 The Linnean Society of London.

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The solidification of intruded magma in porous rocks can result in the following two consequences: (1) the heat release due to the solidification of the interface between the rock and intruded magma and (2) the mass release of the volatile fluids in the region where the intruded magma is solidified into the rock. Traditionally, the intruded magma solidification problem is treated as a moving interface (i.e. the solidification interface between the rock and intruded magma) problem to consider these consequences in conventional numerical methods. This paper presents an alternative new approach to simulate thermal and chemical consequences/effects of magma intrusion in geological systems, which are composed of porous rocks. In the proposed new approach and algorithm, the original magma solidification problem with a moving boundary between the rock and intruded magma is transformed into a new problem without the moving boundary but with the proposed mass source and physically equivalent heat source. The major advantage in using the proposed equivalent algorithm is that a fixed mesh of finite elements with a variable integration time-step can be employed to simulate the consequences and effects of the intruded magma solidification using the conventional finite element method. The correctness and usefulness of the proposed equivalent algorithm have been demonstrated by a benchmark magma solidification problem. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Carbon monoxide, the chief killer in fires, and other species are modelled for a series of enclosure fires. The conditions emulate building fires where CO is formed in the rich, turbulent, nonpremixed flame and is transported frozen to lean mixtures by the ceiling jet which is cooled by radiation and dilution. Conditional moment closure modelling is used and computational domain minimisation criteria are developed which reduce the computational cost of this method. The predictions give good agreement for CO and other species in the lean, quenched-gas stream, holding promise that this method may provide a practical means of modelling real, three-dimensional fire situations. (c) 2005 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Pollution by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs) is widespread due to unsuitable disposal of industrial waste. They are mostly defined as priority pollutants by environmental protection authorities worldwide. Phenanthrene, a typical PAH, was selected as the target in this paper. The PAH-degrading mixed culture, named ZM, was collected from a petroleum contaminated river bed. This culture was injected into phenanthrene solutions at different concentrations to quantify the biodegradation process. Results show near-complete removal of phenanthrene in three days of biodegradation if the initial phenanthrene concentration is low. When the initial concentration is high, the removal rate is increased but 20%-40% of the phenanthrene remains at the end of the experiment. The biomass shows a peak on the third day due to the combined effects of microbial growth and decay. Another peak is evident for cases with a high initial concentration, possibly due to production of an intermediate metabolite. The pH generally decreased during biodegradation because of the production of organic acid. Two phenomenological models were designed to simulate the phenanthrene biodegradation and biomass growth. A relatively simple model that does not consider the intermediate metabolite and its inhibition of phenanthrene biodegradation cannot fit the observed data. A modified Monod model that considered an intermediate metabolite (organic acid) and its inhibiting reversal effect reasonably depicts the experimental results.

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Objective To assess the validity and the reliability of the Portuguese version of the Delirium Rating Scale-Revised-98 (DRS-R-98). Methods The scale was translated into Portuguese and back-translated into English. After assessing its face validity, five diagnostic groups (n = 64; delirium, depression, dementia, schizophrenia and others) were evaluated by two independent researchers blinded to the diagnosis. Diagnosis and severity of delirium as measured by the DRS-R-98 were compared to clinical diagnosis, Mini-Mental State Exam, Confusion Assessment Method, and Clinical Global Impressions scale (CGI). Results Mean and rnedian DRS-R-98 total scores significantly distinguished delirium from the other groups (p < 0.001). Inter-rater reliability (ICC between 0.9 and 1) and internal consistency (alpha = 0.91) were very high. DRS-R-98 severity scores correlated highly with the CGI. Mean DRS-R-98 severity scores during delirium differed significantly (p < 0.01) from the post-treatment values. The area under the curve established by ROC analysis was 0.99 and using the cut-off Value of 20 the scale showed sensitivity and specificity of 92.6% and 94.6%, respectively. Conclusion The Portuguese version of the DRS-R-98 is a valid and reliable measure of delirium that distinguishes delirium from other disorders and is sensitive to change in delirium severity, which may be of great value for longitudinal studies. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The scale insect genus Calycicoccus Brain has a single described species, C. merwei Brain, which is endemic to southeastern South Africa. Females of C. merwei induce small, mostly conical galls on the foliage of their host tree, Apodytes dimidiata E. Meyer ex Arn. (Icacinaceae), which has a wider, mostly coastal distribution, than that currently known for the scale insect. Calycicoccus has been placed in the family Eriococcidae and may be related to the South American genus Aculeococcus Lepage. No other native eriococcid species have been described so far in South Africa, although the family is diverse in other Gondwanan regions. This paper summarizes the biology of C. merwei, redescribes the adult female, describes the adult male, the second-instar female and the first-instar nymphs for the first time, and reconsiders the phylogenetic relationships of the genus. The adult female is shown to have unusual abdominal segmentation, in that segment I is present both dorsally and ventrally, but a segment is absent ventrally on the middle abdomen. First-instar nymphs are sexually dimorphic; males have a larger and relatively narrower body, larger mouthparts, longer antennae and legs, and more thoracic dorsal setae compared with females. Molecular data from nuclear small-subunit ribosomal DNA (18S) and elongation factor 1 alpha (EF-1a) show C. merwei to have no close relatives among the Eriococcidae sampled to date. Instead, the Calycicoccus lineage is part of a polytomy near the base of the Eriococcidae. Molecular dating of the node suggests that the Calycicoccus lineage diverged from other eriococcids more than 100 Mya. These data support the placement of Calycicoccus as the only genus in the subfamily Calycicoccinae Brain.

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Light is generally regarded as the most likely cue used by zooplankton to regulate their vertical movements through the water column. However, the way in which light is used by zooplankton as a cue is not well understood. In this paper we present a mathematical model of diel vertical migration which produces vertical distributions of zooplankton that vary in space and time. The model is used to predict the patterns of vertical distribution which result when animals are assumed to adopt one of three commonly proposed mechanisms for vertical swimming. First, we assume zooplankton tend to swim towards a preferred intensity of light. We then assume zooplankton swim in response to either the rate of change in light intensity or the relative rate of change in light intensity. The model predicts that for all three mechanisms movement is fastest at sunset and sunrise and populations are primarily influenced by eddy diffusion at night in the absence of a light stimulus. Daytime patterns of vertical distribution differ between the three mechanisms and the reasons for the predicted differences are discussed. Swimming responses to properties of the light field are shown to be adequate for describing diel vertical migration where animals congregate in near surface waters during the evening and reside at deeper depths during the day. However, the model is unable to explain how some populations halt their ascent before reaching surface waters or how populations re-congregate in surface waters a few hours before sunrise, a phenomenon which is sometimes observed in the held. The model results indicate that other exogenous or endogenous factors besides light may play important roles in regulating vertical movement.

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The spatial pattern of outbreaks of pink wax scale, Ceroplastes rubens Maskell, within and among umbrella trees, Schefflera actinophylla (Endl.), in southeastern Queensland was investigated. Pink wax scale was common on S. actinophylla, with approximately 84% of trees positive for scale and 14% of bees recording outbreak densities exceeding 0.4 adults per leaflet. Highly aggregated distributions of C. rubens occur within and among umbrella trees. Clumped distributions within trees appear to result from variable birth and death rates and limited movement of first instar crawlers. The patchy distribution of pink wax scale among trees is probably a consequence of variation in dispersal success of scale, host and environmental suitability for establishment and rates of biological control. Pink wax scale was more prevalent on trees in roadside positions and in exposed situations, indicating that such trees are more suitable and/or susceptible to scale colonisation.