Patterns of orographic uplift in the Sierra Nevada and their relationship to upper-level atmospheric circulation

We examine monthly and seasonal patterns of precipitation across various elevations of the eastern Central Valley of California and the Sierra Nevada. A measure of the strength of the orographic effect called the “precipitation ratio” is calculated, and we separate months into four groups based on being wet or dry and having low or high precipitation ratios. Using monthly maps of mean 700-mb height anomalies, we describe the northern hemisphere mid-tropospheric circulation patterns associated with each of the four groups. Wet months are associated with negative height anomalies over the eastern Pacific, as expected. However, the orientation of the trough is different for years with high and low precipitation ratios. Wet months with high ratios typically have circulation patterns factoring a west-southwest to east-northeast storm track from around the Hawaiian Islands to the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Wet months with low precipitation ratios are associated with a trough centered near the Aleutians and a northwest to southeast storm track. Dry months are marked by anticyclones in the Pacific, but this feature is more localized to the eastern Pacific for months with low precipitation ratios than for those with high ratios. Using precipitation gauge and snow course data from the American River and Truckee-Tahoe basins, we determined that the strength of the orographic effect on a seasonal basis is spatially coherent at low and high elevations and on opposite sides of the Sierra Nevada crestline.

National summary of NOAA's shallow-water benthic habitat mapping of U.S. coral reef ecosystems

Coral reef ecosystems are some of the most complex and important ecosystems in the marine environment. They are also among the most biologically diverse and economically valuable ecosystems on earth, producing billions of dollars in food, as well as providing a suite of ecological services, such as recreation and tourism activities and coastal protection from storm and wave action. Yet, despite their value and importance, these fragile ecosystems are declining at an alarming rate (Waddell and Clarke (eds.) 2008) due to a myriad of threats both natural and manmade, including climate change, fishing pressure, and runoff and sedimentation. In response, the Unites States Coal Reef Task Force was established in 1998 by Presidential Executive Order 13089 to lead U.S. efforts to preserve and protect the nation’s coral reef ecosystems. In order to better understand the current state of coral reef ecosystems and successfully mitigate the impacts of stressors, informational products, such as benthic (or sea floor) habitat maps, are critical. Benthic habitat maps support the ability to prioritize areas for further study and protection, and offer a baseline to evaluate the changes in ecosystems over time. In 2000, the United States Coral Reef Task Force charged NOAA with leading federal efforts to produce comprehensive digital maps of all U.S. shallow-water (approximately 0 to 30 m in depth) coral reef ecosystem habitats.

Shallow-water benthic habitats of southwest Puerto Rico

This report describes the creation and assessment of benthic habitat maps for shallow-water (<30m) marine environments of the Guánica/Parguera and Finca Belvedere Natural Reserve in southwest Puerto Rico. The objective was to provide spatially-explicit information on the habitat types, biological cover and live coral cover of the region’s coral reef ecosystem. These fine-scale habitat maps, generated by interpretation of 2010 satellite imagery, provide an update to NOAA’s previous digital maps of the U.S. Caribbean (Kendall et al., 2001) for these areas. Updated shallow-water benthic habitat maps for the Guánica/Parguera region are timely in light of ongoing restoration efforts in the Guánica Bay watershed. The bay is served directly by one river, the Rio Loco, which flows intermittently and more frequently during the rainy season. The watershed has gone through a series of manipulations and alterations in past decades, mainly associated with agricultural practices, including irrigation systems, in the upper watershed. The Guánica Lagoon, previously situated to the north of the bay, was historically the largest freshwater lagoon in Puerto Rico and served as a natural filter and sediment sink prior to the discharge of the Rio Loco into the Bay. Following alterations by the Southwest Water Project in the 1950s, the Lagoon’s adjacent wetland system was ditched and drained; no longer filtering and trapping sediment from the Rio Loco. Land use in the Guánica Bay/Rio Loco watershed has also gone through several changes (CWP, 2008). Similar to much of Puerto Rico, the area was largely deforested for sugar cane cultivation in the 1800s, although reforestation of some areas occurred following the cessation of sugar cane production (Warne et al., 2005). The northern area of the watershed is generally mountainous and is characterized by a mix of forested and agricultural lands, particularly coffee plantations. Closer to the coast, the Lajas Valley Agricultural Reserve extends north of Guánica Bay to the southwest corner of the island. The land use practices and watershed changes outlined above have resulted in large amounts of sediment being distributed in the Rio Loco river valley (CWP, 2008). Storm events and seasonal flooding also transport large amounts of sediment to the coastal waters. The threats of upstream watershed practices to coral reefs and the nearshore marine environment have been gaining recognition. Guánica Bay, and the adjacent marine waters, has been identified as a “management priority area” by NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP, 2012). In a recent Guánica Bay watershed management plan, several critical issues were outlined in regards to land-based sources of pollution (LBSP; CWP, 2008). These include: upland erosion from coffee agriculture, filling of reservoirs with sediment, in-stream channel erosion, loss of historical Guánica lagoon, legacy contaminants and sewage treatment (CWP, 2008). The plan recommended several management actions that could be taken to reduce impacts of LBSP, which form the basis of Guánica watershed restoration efforts.

Temporal trends in reef fish assemblages inside Virgin Islands National Park and around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, 1988-2006

This report is a result of long-term fish monitoring studies supported by the National Park Service (NPS) at the Virgin Islands National Park since 1988 and is now a joint NPS and NOAA collaboration. Reef fish monitoring data collected from 1988 to 2006 within Virgin Islands National Park (VINP) and adjacent reefs around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) were analyzed to provide information on the status of reef fishes during the monitoring period. Monitoring projects were initiated by the National Park Service (NPS) in the 1980s to provide useful data for evaluation of resources and for development of a long-term monitoring program. Monthly monitoring was conducted at two reef sites (Yawzi Point and Cocoloba Cay) starting in November 1988 for 2.5 years to document the monthly/seasonal variability in reef fish assemblages. Hurricane Hugo (a powerful Category 4 storm) struck the USVI in September 1989 resulting in considerable damage to the reefs around St. John. Abundance of fishes was lower at both sites following the storm, however, a greater effect was observed at Yawzi Point, which experienced a more direct impact from the hurricane. The storm affected species differently, with some showing only small, short-term declines in abundance, and others, such as the numerically abundant blue chromis (Chromis cyanea), a planktivorous damselfish, exhibiting a larger and longer recovery period. This report provides: 1) an evaluation of sampling methods, sample size, and methods used during the sampling period, 2) an evaluation of the spatial and temporal variability in reef fish assemblages at selected reef sites inside and outside of VINP, and 3) an evaluation of trends over 17 years of monitoring at the four reference sites. Comparisons of methods were conducted to standardize assessments among years. Several methods were used to evaluate sample size requirements for reef fish monitoring and the results provided a statistically robust justification for sample allocation.

Wave forecasts associated with hurricane landfalls in the vicinity of Cape Lookout, North Carolina

Hurricanes can cause extensive damage to the coastline and coastal communities due to wind-generated waves and storm surge. While extensive modeling efforts have been conducted regarding storm surge, there is far less information about the effects of waves on these communities and ecosystems as storms make landfall. This report describes a preliminary use of NCCOS’ WEMo (Wave Exposure Model; Fonseca and Malhotra 2010) to compute the wind wave exposure within an area of approximately 25 miles radius from Beaufort, North Carolina for estuarine waters encompassing Bogue Sound, Back Sound and Core Sound during three hurricane landfall scenarios. The wind wave heights and energy of a site was a computation based on wind speed, direction, fetch and local bathymetry. We used our local area (Beaufort, North Carolina) as a test bed for this product because it is frequently impacted by hurricanes and we had confidence in the bathymetry data. Our test bed conditions were based on two recent Hurricanes that strongly affected this area. First, we used hurricane Isabel which made landfall near Beaufort in September 2003. Two hurricane simulations were run first by passing hurricane Isabel along its actual path (east of Beaufort) and second by passing the same storm to the west of Beaufort to show the potential effect of the reversed wind field. We then simulated impacts by a hurricane (Ophelia) with a different landfall track, which occurred in September of 2005. The simulations produced a geographic description of wave heights revealing the changing wind and wave exposure of the region as a consequence of landfall location and storm intensity. This highly conservative simulation (water levels were that of low tide) revealed that many inhabited and developed shorelines would receive wind waves for prolonged periods of time at heights far above that found during even the top few percent of non-hurricane events. The simulations also provided a sense for how rapidly conditions could transition from moderate to highly threatening; wave heights were shown to far exceed normal conditions often long before the main body of the storm arrived and importantly, at many locations that could impede and endanger late-fleeing vessels seeking safe harbor. When joined with other factors, such as storm surge and event duration, we anticipate that the WEMo forecasting tool will have significant use by local emergency agencies and the public to anticipate the relative exposure of their property arising as a function of storm location and may also be used by resource managers to examine the effects of storms in a quantitative fashion on local living marine resources.

Scales of spatial variation in demography of a large coral-reef fish: an exception to the typical model?

Spatial variation in demographic parameters of the red throat emperor (Lethrinus miniatus) was examined among 12 coral reefs in three geographic regions (Townsville, Mackay, and Storm Cay) spanning over 3° of latitude of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Estimates of demographic parameters were based on age estimates from counts of annuli in whole otoliths because there was no significant difference in age estimates between whole and sectioned otoliths. There were significant regional differences in age structures, rates of somatic and otolith growth, and total mortality. The Townsville region was characterized by the greatest proportion of older fish, the smallest maximum size, and the lowest rates of otolith growth and total mortality. In contrast the Mackay region was characterized by the highest proportion of younger fish, the largest maximum size, and the highest rates of otolith growth and total mortality. Demographic parameters for the Storm Cay region were intermediate between the other two regions. Historic differences in fishing pressure and regional differences in productivity are two alternative hypotheses given to explain the regional patterns in demographic parameters. All demographic parameters were similar among the four reefs within each region. Thus, subpopulations with relatively homogeneous demographic parameters occurred on scales of reef clusters. Previous studies, by contrast, have found substantial between-reef variation in demographic parameters within regions. Thus spatial variation in demographic parameters for L. miniatus may differ from what is assumed typical for a coral-reef fish metapopulation.

Snow accumulation time series and their climatic interpretation

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Several snow accumulation time series derived from ice cores and extending over 3 to 5 centuries are examined for spatial and temporal climatic information. ... A significant observation is the widespread depression of net snow accumulation during the latter part of the "Little Ice Age". This initially suggests sea surface temperatures were significantly depressed during the same period. However, prior to this, the available core records indicate generally higher than average precipitation rates. This also implies that influences such as shifted storm tracks or a dustier atmosphere may have been involved. Without additional spatial data coverage, these observations should properly be studied using a coupled (global) ocean/atmosphere GCM.

Snow depth as an indicator of weather and climate in the Sierra Nevada

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The purpose of this study is to determine: (1) whether the cooperative station snow depth contains useful weather and climate information, (2) how cooperative snow depth variability is related to snowcourse variability, and (3) how it is related to other weather elements. From an examination of stations in the Sierra Nevada of California, it is clear that cooperative snow records and snowcourse records have consistent spatial and temporal variability. ... We show that high snow ratio (low density snow or high SD/Ppt) events have low temperatures and high amplitude atmospheric circulation patterns over the eastern North Pacific. In contrast, low snow ratio (high density or low SD/Ppt) events have warm temperatures and a zonal flow pattern with a southerly displaced storm track from Hawaii to the West Coast.

毛乌素沙地土地利用/土地覆被变化研究

毛乌素沙地是我国十二大沙漠之一，地处北方干旱半干旱区向亚湿润区过渡地带，长期以来，不合理的人类土地利用，结合当地脆弱的环境生态特征，引起了严重的现代荒漠化过程，是我国北方荒漠化研究的重点地区。本文着重从自然和人文学科密切合作的角度，对毛乌素沙地土地利用／土地覆被变化的内在作用机制进行了研究，得到以下主要结论： 1. 利用多年实地观测数据资料，考察了毛乌素沙地四种主要草地类型代表性植物群落地上生物量响应气候因子波动的变化规律，建立了植物地上生物量对气候因子的逐月回归模型，揭示出如下规律：①各种气候因子对不同类型草地以及同一类型不同生长阶段草地都产生不同的影响作用;②同一气候因子在植物不同生长阶段上，对生物量形成的重要性程度存在差异：③在植物生长期内，每个生长阶段的生物量都对后一时期的生物量产生显著影响，说明植物生长的连续性对于生物量的形成和积累是重要的;④在植物的凋枯期，各种气候因子基本上都不对生物量产生显著影响;⑤水分因子对毛乌素沙地几乎各种类型草地的生物量，都是重要的影响因子，毛乌素沙地降水状况在不同年份的显著波动对草地植物地上生物量的影响，不仅直接构成了土地覆被变化的重要组成部分，而且还影响到土地利用的方式、方法和后果。 2. 在考察毛乌素沙地草地地上生物量对气候因子变化的响应规律中，利用逐月动态回归建模方法改进了传统的累积气候因子回归建模方法。逐月回归模型与累积回归模型的比较显示，逐月动态回归模型的优势表现在三个方面：①可以提供累积回归模型无法揭示的作用规律;②模拟更加精确;③可以预测不同气候条件下群落地上生物量的变化范围。 3. 利用风速、降水和潜在蒸发等气象记录资料，建立了毛乌素沙地气候因子影响沙尘暴频率的作用模型，定量地考察了沙地各处气候因子对沙尘暴频率的影响作用。研究表明，气候因素是导致毛乌素沙地沙尘暴发生的主导原因，在沙地各处，气候因子可以解释沙尘暴频率分布格局总信息的比率分别为：乌审召83.6%，乌审旗77.5%，河南82.4%，鄂托克旗79.8%，新街73.1%，伊金霍洛旗82%。 4. 在定量考察气候因素对沙尘暴频率影响作用的基础上，对影响沙尘暴频率格局的自然和人为因素进行了定量分离，研究表明：人为影响因素对对沙尘暴发生起次要作用，解释沙尘暴频率分布格局信息的比率分别为：乌审召16.4%，乌审旗22.5%，河南17.6%，鄂托克旗20.2%，新街26.9%，伊金霍洛旗18%。 自然和人为因素影响作用的定量分离研究表明，毛乌素沙地人为因素的影响作用表现出空间上的差异性：①从方位上说，呈现自东向中、西部递减的梯度：②从地点上说，城镇附近人为影响作用远高于农村地区;③从土地利用方式上说，农垦种植业区域高于畜牧业区域。 5. 在实地观测基础上，建立了裸露沙面和植被覆盖沙面风蚀输沙率模型，定量考察了植被覆盖率与风蚀输沙率之间的关系。研究表明：当植被覆盖率达到60%以上，可以保护地表土壤使风蚀在大多数条件下不致发生;当覆盖率达到40%，可以使风蚀输沙大为减少;而当植被覆盖率低于10%，植被覆盖基本不能对地表土壤起到有效的防护作用。 6. 应用植被覆盖地表风蚀输沙率模型，考察了沙地不同风速条件下植被有效覆盖率。根据当地气象台站的多年气象记录，沙地最大风速在20m/s左右，这样的风速条件下，保证风蚀不致发生的植被有效覆盖率为65%左右;在沙地常见的大风风速14-16m/s下，植被有效覆盖率大致为50-55%;对于沙地一般的中等风速l0-12m/s．植被有效覆盖率为40%。植被覆盖对风蚀的影响作用也可以理解为，植被覆盖使沙粒起动风速发生了增大效应，研究表明：与裸露沙面沙粒起动风速4.5m/s对照，70%植被覆盖率使起动风速改变为15.4m/s;60%植被覆盖率使起动风速改变为12.1m/s;40%植被覆盖率使起动风速改变为8.Om/s;而在10%植被覆盖条件下，起动风速为5.Om/s，改变量很小，说明植被覆盖的保护作用极其有限。 7. 基于野外实地观测，比较了沙地五种常见植物种和二种人工防护材料防风效应上的差异。研究表明，防风效应由高到低的次序是，沙蒿>芨芨草>杨柴和牛心朴子>沙障>栅栏>旱柳;就乔、灌、草和人工材料而言，防风效应的次序是，灌木植被>草本植被>人工材料>乔木植被。植物和人工防护材料降低风速的比率与风速呈现二次函数关系，不同植物种或人工材料，降低风速比率都表现出不同的规律，在一般情况下，降低风速效应随着风速的增大而降低。 8. 通过不同植物种防风效应的比较研究，对毛乌素沙地植被生态建设的实践有一定的指导意义。毛乌素沙地的植被建设中对植被类型和植物种类的选择，应该遵循如下原则：①选取防风固沙效应好的植物种类;②应该考虑植物水分供给与需求的平衡状况，实行适地适树;③植物防护效应应该与当地风蚀气候在时间上较好地匹配，在春季等风蚀严重季节，植被覆盖应该具有较好的防风效应。 9. 在现实中，各种影响风蚀的因素是同时发挥作用的。将风蚀影响因素分解为风速、湿润度和植被覆盖率（以及植被类型）三个方面，在此基础上，建立了风蚀影响因素的综合作用的概念模型和沙丘活动性指数定量模型。湿润程度低、风速高、植被覆盖率低的地区，是风蚀最为严重的地区;在湿润程度高、风速低、植被覆盖率高的地区，是风蚀最弱的地区;在其他地区，风蚀状况根据三个方面因素的综合状况来决定。 10. 利用风蚀影响因子综合作用的沙丘活动性指数模型，从空间、时间、植被类型变化角度，考察了毛乌素沙地的风蚀变化状况。得到如下结论：①随着空间变化，风速、降水等气候因素也随之存在差异，导致沙丘活动性指数的变化规律是，西北部鄂托克旗沙丘活动性最高，乌审旗次之，其他几个站差别不太显著，这是由各地降水、气温、沙粒粒径等因素共同决定;②随着时间的变化，气候、植被生长等方面的状况随之发生改变，导致沙丘活动性发生变化，春季最高，冬季次之，夏秋季最低：③随着沙丘植被覆盖类型的变化，沙丘活动性也发生显著变化，在一般情况下，乔木覆盖沙丘活动性>草本植物覆盖沙丘>灌木覆盖沙丘。 11. 在实地调查土地利用现实状况及其社会、经济和政策影响因素的基础上，建立了我国北方干旱半干旱区土地利用决策机制的概念模型，分析了与土地利用密切相关的农牧民一政府一环境科学家这三个社会群体对土地利用的立场和影响作用力上的差异，分析了毛乌素沙地土地利用的现状及其影响因素，探讨了现实中不可持续土地利用行为发生的社会、经济和政策原因。 12. 在实地调查基础上，分别利用产出一费用分析法和过程影响因素分析法，建立了毛乌素沙地土地利用经济收益的定量模型。产出一分析研究表明，无论是农垦种植业，还是草地畜牧业，农牧民从这两种土地利用方式都只能获得较低下的经济收益。造成这种状况的原因，主要在于两个方面：一是低下且不断处于波动之中的农牧业产品物价，二是沉重的农牧业税收。 13. 将影响农牧业产出的因素，划分为四个方面：土地面积（牲畜头数）、环境状况、管理水平和利用强度，在此基础上建立了定量的影响作用模型。研究表明：环境状况指数每增加0.1，农牧业经济收益增加26%;管理水平因子每提高0.1，农牧业经济收益增加12.7%;农牧业经济收益最优的土地利用强度在0.4左右，在此之前，随着利用强度的增加，经济收益随之增大，而在此之后，随着利用强度的增大，经济收益逐渐降低，当土地利用强度达到0.9左右时，呈现负的经济收益。 14. 毛乌素沙地实施土地资源可持续利用，必须从技术的革新和社会经济政策等因素的调整两条途径同时入手，二者缺一不可。通过改进和应用节水灌溉、风能光能利用、生物增产技术，尽可能地提高各种资源的利用效率;通过应用免耕或浅耕技术，尽量减轻土地利用对资源和环境的破坏;通过栽培、速生技术，提高植被建设的成效和速度。而通过税收、物价政策的调整，尽可能地提高农牧民经济收益增长的速度，减轻土地利用压力;通过政府与人民之间对话和合作机制的建立，让广大农牧民参与到土地利用的决策和管理的过程中去;通过土地利用管理政策、措施的调整和完善，调动农牧民保护资源的积极性和自觉性;通过激励机制的建立，引导农牧民土地利用向着可持续的方向发展。 15. 实现毛乌素沙地土地资源可持续利用的有效途径，在于这样几个方面：①建立和完善政府及其管理部门与人民之间有效的对话和合作机制，让广大农牧民参与到土地利用决策和管理的过程中去：②实行产业结构调整，转变片面追求经济增长的做法，制订适应当地自然条件和生态特征的发展模式;③降低农牧业税收、稳定并提高农牧业产品的物价，增加农牧民经济收入，减轻土地利用压力;④进一步改进和完善土地利用管理政策和法规;⑤建立有效激励机制，引导农牧民土地利用向着可持续的方向发展：⑥努力改进节水灌溉技术、生物增产技术，提高土地利用的科技水平：⑦改进环境保护和植被建设决策的科学性，提高植被建设的成效。

Multivariate climate reconstruction for the last 14,000 years in southernmost South America

Comparison between past changes in pollen assemblages and stable isotope ratios (deuterium and carbon) analyzed in the same peat core from Tierra del Fuego at latitude 55°S permitted identification of the relative contribution of precipitation versus temperature responsible for the respective change. Major steps in the sequence of paleoenvironmental changes, such as at 12700, 9000, 5000, and 4000 years ago are apparently related only to increase in precipitation, reflecting the latitudinal location and intensity of the westerly storm tracks. On the other hand, high paleoenvironmental variability, which is characteristic for the late-glacial and the latest Holocene, is related to temperature variability, which affects the relative moisture content. Comparison with other paleoenvironmental records suggests that the late-glacial temperature variability is probably related to variability in the extent of Antarctic sea-ice, which in turn appears to be related to the intensity of Atlantic deep-water circulation. Temperature variability during the latest Holocene, on the other hand, is probably related to the dynamics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Some effects of Earth's surface on winter jet stream positions in the Northern Hemisphere and rainfall patterns in northern and central California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): This report shows that the mean wintertime polar-front jet stream structure consists of three long waves. Prominent ridges in the jet stream flow occur near the longitudes of India, eastern Pacific/west coast of North America, and eastern Atlantic/British Isles; prominent troughs occur near the longitudes of the Middle East, western Pacific, and western Atlantic/east coast of North America. ... One of the climatological ridges occurs along the west coast of North America ... just off the central Oregon coast. The position of the jet stream at this location appears to be the main reason most Pacific storms pass to the north of California. Sustained rainfall in northern and central California occurs only when the storm track is displaced southward of this climatological position.

River salinity variations in response to discharge: examples from the western United States during the early 1900s

Major controls on river salinity (total dissolved solids) in the western United States are climate, geology, and human activity. Climate, in general, influences soil-river salinity via salt-balance variations. When climate becomes wetter, river discharge increases and soil-river salinity decreases; when climate becomes drier river discharge decreases and soil-river salinity increases. This study characterizes the river salinity response to discharge using statistical-dynamic methods. An exploratory analysis of river salinity, using early 1900s water quality surveys in the western United States, shows much river salinity variability is in response to storm and annual discharge. Presumably this is because river discharge is largely supported by surface flow.

Influence of climatography on rainfall thresholds for initiation of debris-flows on the California coast [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Since 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Weather Service have operated a warning system for debris flows triggered by severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS tracks storm systems as they approach the region, forecasts precipitation, and observes rainfall with a network of radiotelemetered rain gauges (ALERT). The USGS also monitors ALERT data and compares the observed and forecast rainfall to thresholds for debris-flow initiation. Both groups jointly assess debris-flow hazards and issue public advisories when rainfall conditions reach or approach critical levels.

Long-term response of Torrey pine to coastal climate: precipitation, temperature, and fog

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana Parry ex Carr.) has one of the most limited geographical ranges and population size in the Pinus genus; it is present only on Santa Rosa Island and on the coast between San Diego and Del Mar, where our research was conducted. A 168-year chronology (1827-1994) was developed using 28 increment cores extracted from 15 living and 2 dead stranding trees at Torrey Pines State Reserve, San Diego, California. ... The spatial correlation with western North America winter and spring precipitation, as well as with published tree-ring chronologies, indicates a connection with the American Southwest. Global correlation maps with winter sea level pressure and sea surface temperature are consistent with the hypothesis that San Diego precipitation is affected by a southerly displaced North Pacific storm track and by warmer water farther south, both leading to higher transport of lower latitude moisture.

A comparison of methods for assessing the lifetime reliability of a moored FPSO

Current design codes for floating offshore structures are based on measures of short-term reliability. That is, a design storm is selected via an extreme value analysis of the environmental conditions and the reliability of the vessel in that design storm is computed. Although this approach yields valuable information on the vessel motions, it does not produce a statistically rigorous assessment of the lifetime probability of failure. An alternative approach is to perform a long-term reliability analysis in which consideration is taken of all sea states potentially encountered by the vessel during the design life. Although permitted as a design approach in current design codes, the associated computational expense generally prevents its use in practice. A new efficient approach to long-term reliability analysis is presented here, the results of which are compared with a traditional short-term analysis for the surge motion of a representative moored FPSO in head seas. This serves to illustrate the failure probabilities actually embedded within current design code methods, and the way in which design methods might be adapted to achieve a specified target safety level.