Mid- to late-Holocene paleoceanographic changes on the southeastern Brazilian shelf based on grain size records

; High-resolution grain size analyses of three AMS (14)C-dated cores from the Southeastern Brazilian shelf provide a detailed record of mid- to late-Holocene environmental changes in the Southwestern Atlantic Margin. The cores exhibit millennial variability that we associate with the previously described southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) average latitudinal position over the South American continent during the Holocene climatic maximum. This generated changes in the wind-driven current system of the SW Atlantic margin and modified the grain size characteristics of the sediments deposited there. Centennial variations in the grain size are associated with a previously described late-Holocene enhancement of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude, which led to stronger NNE trade winds off eastern Brazil, favouring SW transport of sediments from the Paraiba do Sul River. This is recorded in a core from off Cabo Frio as a coarsening trend from 3000 cal. BP onwards. The ENSO enhancement also caused changes in precipitation and wind pattern in southern Brazil, allowing high discharge events and northward extensions of the low-saline water plume from Rio de la Plata. We propose that this resulted in a net increase in northward alongshore transport of fine sediments, seen as a prominent fine-shift at 2000 cal. BP in a core from similar to 24 degrees S on the Brazilian shelf. Wavelet-and spectral analysis of the sortable silt records show a significant similar to 1000-yr periodicity, which we attribute to solar forcing. If correct, this is one of the first indications of solar forcing of this timescale on the Southwestern Atlantic margin.

Can Indian Ocean SST anomalies influence South American rainfall?

In this study we examine the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on South American circulation using observations and a suite of numerical experiments forced by a combination of Indian and Pacific SST anomalies. Previous studies have shown that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode can affect climate over remote regions across the globe, including over South America. Here we show that such a link exists not only with the IOD, but also with the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (IOBW). The IOBW, a response to El Nino events, tends to reinforce the South American anomalous circulation in March-to-May associated with the warm events in the Pacific. This leads to increased rainfall in the La Plata basin and decreased rainfall over the northern regions of the continent. In addition, the IOBW is suggested to be an important factor for modulating the persistence of dry conditions over northeastern South America during austral autumn. The link between the IOBW and South American climate occurs via alterations of the Walker circulation pattern and through a mid-latitude wave-train teleconnection.

Är gemensam vårdnad barnets bästa vid vårdnadstvister?

Syftet har varit att undersöka hur ”barnets bästa” och ”samarbetssvårigheter mellan föräldrar” ska inverka vid beslut om gemensam eller ensam vårdnad. Underliggande syfte var att genom två rättsfall visa hur domstolarna tar hänsyn till ”barnets bästa” och ”samarbetssvårigheter mellan föräldrarna” vid vårdnadstvister. Metoden i uppsatsen är traditionell juridisk metod, vilket innebär att lag, förarbeten, rättsfall, praxis och doktrin som är relevant för området har behandlats. Peczeniks sju intellektuella operationer har använts vid rättsfallsanalyserna. Uppsatsen har avgränsats till de paragrafer som rör rättsfallen, dvs. 6 kap. 2 a och 5 § § FB. Det är även de paragrafer som nämnts när ändringarna av FB gås igenom. Resultaten pekade på att det kanske är på väg att bli lättare att döma till ensam vårdnad. Domstolarna kommer att ta större hänsyn till de konflikter som finns mellan föräldrar angående frågor som rör barnen. Barnets bästa anses inte vara gemensam vårdnad när konflikterna är stora, utan det är då bättre med ensam vårdnad.

Sjuksköterskans kunskap och attityder vid omvårdnad av HIV/AIDS patient

Abstract Bakgrund: Totalt har nästan 30 miljoner avlidit sedan första AIDS- fallet diagnostiserades år 1981. Ovissheten och hotet om sjukdom och för tidig död innebär stora psykiska påfrestningar på individen. Sjuksköterskans attityder och sätt att vara spelar en viktig roll för etablering av en terapeutisk relation. Syfte: Syftet var att belysa sjuksköterskans attityder till patienter med HIV- infektion. Metod: Genom en litteraturstudie av tidigare forskning har 16 vetenskapliga artiklar granskats. Dessa fann vi på databaserna PubMed och Cinahl. Resultat: Sjuksköterskor upplevde rädsla vid omvårdnad av patienter med HIV/AIDS på grund av dess smittrisk. De ansåg att de behövde mer utbildning och support och professionell support mellan kollegor för att orka med sitt arbete. Från forskarnas observationer sågs ett fysiskt undvikande av patienter, som att vårdpersonalen inte svarade på patientens ringningar, de undvek att gå in till patienten. Sjuksköterskestuderande som hade en rädsla för HIV/AIDS har mer homofobier, de ansåg att det var ett straff för deras oordnade sexliv och att de förtjänade sitt öde. Slutsats: Vi anser att många av dessa attityder skulle kunna undvikas om personalen får mer kunskap om smitta, sexuallitet och droger, hur sjukdomsförloppet ser ut, och vilka funderingar en HIV/AIDS smittad kan ha. Detta skulle bidra till att sjuksköterskor/vårdpersonal vågar möta patienten och utveckla en god relation till denne.

Närståendes upplevelser till personer som insjuknat i hjärtinfarkt

Hjärtinfarkt är ett sjukdom som påverkar hela familjesituationen. Närstående till personer som insjuknat i hjärtinfarkt kan uppleva högre grad av oro, rädsla och osäkerhet än personen som insjuknat. Syftet var att genom en systematisk litteraturstudie belysa närståendes upplevelser till personer som insjuknat i hjärtinfarkt. Sökningar gjordes i PubMed och Cinahl. Studiernas resultat sammanfördes och analyserades utifrån innehållsanalys vilket resulterade i tre huvudkategorier och fem subkategorier. Resultatet visade att närstående påverkades fysiskt, psykiskt och socialt. Många män till kvinnor med hjärtinfarkt upplevde en känsla av maktlöshet av att inte veta hur hälsan för personen som insjuknat i hjärtinfarkt skulle utvecklas framöver. Känslor som ilska, frustration och ökad osäkerhet var vanligt i det tidiga skedet av rehabiliteringen. Den nya livssituationen för närstående innebar stora förändringar i det dagliga livet. De upplevde det ökade ansvaret som frihetsberövande medan andra kände sig mer tillfredställda att kunna hjälpa till och få en central roll i hemmet. Genom att närståendes situation tas upp i omvårdnaden och får mer stöd av vårdpersonalen kan det leda till att personen som insjuknat i hjärtinfarkt får ett bättre stöd.

Vad helhetssynen skulle betytt för tre kvinnor som varit sjukskrivna : Om att använda systemteori inom rehabilitering

Temat för denna uppsats var att undersöka ett systemteoretiskt arbetssätt i rehabilitering. I den här undersökningen har tre kvinnor som tidigare varit sjukskrivna av psykiska orsaker, intervjuats för att de skulle få ge sin syn på hur ett systemteoretiskt arbetssätt skulle kunna ha hjälpt dem i deras rehabilitering. Vidare vilken funktion deras sjukdom fyllt i deras system och för dom själva. Det fanns en tanke om att deras sjukdom var orsakad av många faktorer, vilket visade sig vara fallet. Urvalet var ett så kallat bekvämlighets urval. Metoden som använts var halvstrukturerade intervjuer med hjälp av en intervju guide. Tolkningen som användes var hermeneutisk. Arbetet begränsades genom att kvinnor som varit sjukskrivna valdes ut. Andra kriterier var att dom skulle ha familj som bodde hemma, minst tre barn och en sambo eller man, vidare att dom kom från små orter i Västernorrlands inland. Resultatet visar att de överlag var positivt inställda till ett systemteoretiskt synsätt, att de saknade att vissa instanser inom rehabilitering inte tog hänsyn till komplexitet i deras liv, och att de känner sig misstrodda av försäkringskassan. Sjukdomen fyllde för alla tre en funktion av signal på obalans i ett snedbelastat system. Vidare var de tre kvinnorna sjukare än vad omgivningen och dom själva trott. De saknade alla tre, från de rehabiliterande enheterna, en helhetssyn på dem och deras situation. Systemteorin kan verka ytterst komplicerad när man läser om cybernetiken till exempel. Men som behandlare behöver man inte lägga det på en komplicerad nivå. Det räcker att man i stora drag vet vad systemteorin handlar om och att man är medveten om vilken roll kommunikation och interaktion spelar, och vilken roll man hamnar i som behandlare i det psykosociala arbetet.

Regionala skillnader i ohälsotal : En analys av arbetslöshetens och demografins förklaringsvärde för ohälsotalet på kommunnivå

Sveriges höga sjukfrånvaro har satt fokus på frågan om vilka bakomliggande faktorer som påverkar individers sjukskrivning. De regionala skillnaderna i ohälsotalet är en faktor som det forskats mycket kring, främst på länsnivå. Föreliggande studie undersökte och jämförde ohälsotalet på kommunnivå. Studiens övergripande syfte var att analysera demografins och arbetslöshetens förklaringsvärde för ohälsotalet. Detta med utgångspunkt i det underliggande syftet, vilket innebar en presentation och jämförelse av ålders- och könsfördelningen, arbetslösheten och kommuninvånarnas nyttjandegrad av de ersättningsformer som ohälsotalet innehåller, mellan Alvesta och Kalix kommuner. De individer som ingick i studien var samtliga invånare i arbetsför ålder 16-64 år på riks, läns (Kronoberg och Norrbotten) och kommunnivå. Studien genomfördes med en kvantitativ metod som innebar en retrospektiv sammanställning och granskning av sekundärdata. Metodstrategin bestod i att granska forskning gällande Sveriges regionala skillnader i ohälsotal och dess förhållande till arbetsmarknaden och demografin för att sammanställa en forskningsbakgrund till det statistiska materialet. Resultatet visade att trots kommunernas stora skillnader i ohälsotal, Kalix hade år 2006 ca 13 fler ohälsodagar per försäkrad än Alvesta, så skiljde de sig inte nämnvärt åt när det gällde antal pågående sjukfall, det vill säga sjukfall ersatta med sjuk-, rehabiliterings och arbetsskadesjukpenning. Av detta drogs slutsatsen att det var i antal förtidspensionärer som kommunerna i huvudsak skiljer sig åt. När det gällde förklaringsvärdet för faktorerna; arbetslöshet och demografi visade undersökningen att ålders- och könsfördelningen i stort sett inte hade något förklaringsvärde för skillnaderna i ohälsotalet eftersom några betydande skillnader mellan kommunerna inte kunde påvisas. Däremot så visade resultatet att arbetsmarknadsläget i kommunerna eventuellt kan förklara en del av skillnaderna eftersom Kalix hade betydligt högre arbetslöshet än Alvesta.

El Niño southern oscillation and its effect on fog oases along the Peruvian and Chilean coastal deserts

Fog oases, locally named Lomas, are distributed in a fragmented way along the western coast of Chile and Peru (South America) between ~6°S and 30°S following an altitudinal gradient determined by a fog layer. This fragmentation has been attributed to the hyper aridity of the desert. However, periodically climatic events influence the ‘normal seasonality’ of this ecosystem through a higher than average water input that triggers plant responses (e.g. primary productivity and phenology). The impact of the climatic oscillation may vary according to the season (wet/dry). This thesis evaluates the potential effect of climate oscillations, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through the analysis of vegetation of this ecosystem following different approaches: Chapters two and three show the analysis of fog oasis along the Peruvian and Chilean deserts. The objectives are: 1) to explain the floristic connection of fog oases analysing their taxa composition differences and the phylogenetic affinities among them, 2) to explore the climate variables related to ENSO which likely affect fog production, and the responses of Lomas vegetation (composition, productivity, distribution) to climate patterns during ENSO events. Chapters four and five describe a fog-oasis in southern Peru during the 2008-2010 period. The objectives are: 3) to describe and create a new vegetation map of the Lomas vegetation using remote sensing analysis supported by field survey data, and 4) to identify the vegetation change during the dry season. The first part of our results show that: 1) there are three significantly different groups of Lomas (Northern Peru, Southern Peru, and Chile) with a significant phylogenetic divergence among them. The species composition reveals a latitudinal gradient of plant assemblages. The species origin, growth-forms typologies, and geographic position also reinforce the differences among groups. 2) Contradictory results have emerged from studies of low-cloud anomalies and the fog-collection during El Niño (EN). EN increases water availability in fog oases when fog should be less frequent due to the reduction of low-clouds amount and stratocumulus. Because a minor role of fog during EN is expected, it is likely that measurements of fog-water collection during EN are considering drizzle and fog at the same time. Although recent studies on fog oases have shown some relationship with the ENSO, responses of vegetation have been largely based on descriptive data, the absence of large temporal records limit the establishment of a direct relationship with climatic oscillations. The second part of the results show that: 3) five different classes of different spectral values correspond to the main land cover of Lomas using a Vegetation Index (VI). The study case is characterised by shrubs and trees with variable cover (dense, semi-dense and open). A secondary area is covered by small shrubs where the dominant tree species is not present. The cacti area and the old terraces with open vegetation were not identified with the VI. Agriculture is present in the area. Finally, 4) contrary to the dry season of 2008 and 2009 years, a higher VI was obtained during the dry season of 2010. The VI increased up to three times their average value, showing a clear spectral signal change, which coincided with the ENSO event of that period.

External drivers of biogeochemical cycles in a tropical montane forest in Ecuador

Successful conservation of tropical montane forest, one of the most threatened ecosystems on earth, requires detailed knowledge of its biogeochemistry. Of particular interest is the response of the biogeochemical element cycles to external influences such as element deposition or climate change. Therefore the overall objective of my study was to contribute to improved understanding of role and functioning of the Andean tropical montane forest. In detail, my objectives were to determine (1) the role of long-range transported aerosols and their transport mechanisms, and (2) the role of short-term extreme climatic events for the element budget of Andean tropical forest. In a whole-catchment approach including three 8-13 ha microcatchments under tropical montane forest on the east-exposed slope of the eastern cordillera in the south Ecuadorian Andes at 1850-2200 m above sea level I monitored at least in weekly resolution the concentrations and fluxes of Ca, Mg, Na, K, NO3-N, NH4-N, DON, P, S, TOC, Mn, and Al in bulk deposition, throughfall, litter leachate, soil solution at the 0.15 and 0.3 m depths, and runoff between May 1998 and April 2003. I also used meteorological data from my study area collected by cooperating researchers and the Brazilian meteorological service (INPE), as well as remote sensing products of the North American and European space agencies NASA and ESA. My results show that (1) there was a strong interannual variation in deposition of Ca [4.4-29 kg ha-1 a-1], Mg [1.6-12], and K [9.8-30]) between 1998 and 2003. High deposition changed the Ca and Mg budgets of the catchments from loss to retention, suggesting that the additionally available Ca and Mg was used by the ecosystem. Increased base metal deposition was related to dust outbursts of the Sahara and an Amazonian precipitation pattern with trans-regional dry spells allowing for dust transport to the Andes. The increased base metal deposition coincided with a strong La Niña event in 1999/2000. There were also significantly elevated H+, N, and Mn depositions during the annual biomass burning period in the Amazon basin. Elevated H+ deposition during the biomass burning period caused elevated base metal loss from the canopy and the organic horizon and deteriorated already low base metal supply of the vegetation. Nitrogen was only retained during biomass burning but not during non-fire conditions when deposition was much smaller. Therefore biomass burning-related aerosol emissions in Amazonia seem large enough to substantially increase element deposition at the western rim of Amazonia. Particularly the related increase of acid deposition impoverishes already base-metal scarce ecosystems. As biomass burning is most intense during El Niño situations, a shortened ENSO cycle because of global warming likely enhances the acid deposition at my study forest. (2) Storm events causing near-surface water flow through C- and nutrient-rich topsoil during rainstorms were the major export pathway for C, N, Al, and Mn (contributing >50% to the total export of these elements). Near-surface flow also accounted for one third of total base metal export. This demonstrates that storm-event related near-surface flow markedly affects the cycling of many nutrients in steep tropical montane forests. Changes in the rainfall regime possibly associated with global climate change will therefore also change element export from the study forest. Element budgets of Andean tropical montane rain forest proved to be markedly affected by long-range transport of Saharan dust, biomass burning-related aerosols, or strong rainfalls during storm events. Thus, increased acid and nutrient deposition and the global climate change probably drive the tropical montane forest to another state with unknown consequences for its functions and biological diversity.

High-resolution reconstruction of Holocene climate variability and environmental changes in the North Pacific using bivalve shells

Bivalve mollusk shells are useful tools for multi-species and multi-proxy paleoenvironmental reconstructions with a high temporal and spatial resolution. Past environmental conditions can be reconstructed from shell growth and stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios, which present an archive for temperature, freshwater fluxes and primary productivity. The purpose of this thesis is the reconstruction of Holocene climate and environmental variations in the North Pacific with a high spatial and temporal resolution using marine bivalve shells. This thesis focuses on several different Holocene time periods and multiple regions in the North Pacific, including: Japan, Alaska (AK), British Columbia (BC) and Washington State, which are affected by the monsoon, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Such high-resolution proxy data from the marine realm of mid- and high-latitudes are still rare. Therefore, this study contributes to the optimization and verification of climate models. However, before using bivalves for environmental reconstructions and seasonality studies, life history traits must be well studied to temporally align and interpret the geochemical record. These calibration studies are essential to ascertain the usefulness of selected bivalve species as paleoclimate proxy archives. This work focuses on two bivalve species, the short-lived Saxidomus gigantea and the long-lived Panopea abrupta. Sclerochronology and oxygen isotope ratios of different shell layers of P. abrupta were studied in order to test the reliability of this species as a climate archive. The annual increments are clearly discernable in umbonal shell portions and the increments widths should be measured in these shell portions. A reliable reconstruction of paleotemperatures may only be achieved by exclusively sampling the outer shell layer of multiple contemporaneous specimens. Life history traits (e.g., timing of growth line formation, duration of the growing season and growth rates) and stable isotope ratios of recent S. gigantea from AK and BC were analyzed in detail. Furthermore, a growth-temperature model based on S. gigantea shells from Alaska was established, which provides a better understanding of the hydrological changes related to the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). This approach allows the independent measurement of water temperature and salinity from variations in the width of lunar daily growth increments of S. gigantea. Temperature explains 70% of the variability in shell growth. The model was calibrated and tested with modern shells and then applied to archaeological specimens. The time period between 988 and 1447 cal yrs BP was characterized by colder (~1-2°C) and much drier (2-5 PSU) summers, and a likely much slower flowing ACC than at present. In contrast, the summers during the time interval of 599-1014 cal yrs BP were colder (up to 3°C) and fresher (1-2 PSU) than today. The Aleutian Low may have been stronger and the ACC was probably flowing faster during this time.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Evaluating the usefulness of soil moisture (forecasts) in streamflow prediction for central Texas

The past decade has brought significant advancements in seasonal climate forecasting. However, water resources decision support and management continues to be based almost entirely on historical observations and does not take advantage of climate forecasts. This study builds on previous work that conditioned streamflow ensemble forecasts on observable climate indicators, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for use in a decision support model for the Highland Lakes multi-reservoir system in central Texas operated by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA). In the current study, seasonal soil moisture is explored as a climate indicator and predictor of annual streamflow for the LCRA region. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation of fractional soil moisture with streamflow using the 1950-2000 Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Retrospective Land Surface Data Set over the LCRA region. Correlations were determined by examining different annual and seasonal combinations of VIC modeled fractional soil moisture and observed streamflow. The applicability of the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set as a data source for this study is tested along with establishing and analyzing patterns of climatology for the watershed study area using the selected data source (VIC model) and historical data. Correlation results showed potential for the use of soil moisture as a predictor of streamflow over the LCRA region. This was evident by the good correlations found between seasonal soil moisture and seasonal streamflow during coincident seasons as well as between seasonal and annual soil moisture with annual streamflow during coincident years. With the findings of good correlation between seasonal soil moisture from the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set with observed annual streamflow presented in this study, future research would evaluate the application of NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of soil moisture in predicting annual streamflow for use in the decision support model for the LCRA.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

On the detection of dynamic responses in a drought-perturbed tropical rainforest in Borneo

The dynamics of aseasonal lowland dipterocarp forest in Borneo is influenced by perturbation from droughts. These events might be increasing in frequency and intensity in the future. This paper describes drought-affected dynamics between 1986 and 2001 in Sabah, Malaysia, and considers how it is possible, reliably and accurately, to measure both coarse- and fine-scale responses of the forest. Some fundamental concerns about methodology and data analysis emerge. In two plots forming 8 ha, mortality, recruitment, and stem growth rates of trees ≥10 cm gbh (girth at breast height) were measured in a ‘pre-drought’ period (1986–1996), and in a period (1996–2001) including the 1997–1998 ENSO-drought. For 2.56 ha of subplots, mortality and growth rates of small trees (10–<50 cm gbh) were found also for two sub-periods (1996–1999, 1999–2001). A total of c. 19 K trees were recorded. Mortality rate increased by 25% while both recruitment and relative growth rates increased by 12% for all trees at the coarse scale. For small trees, at the fine scale, mortality increased by 6% and 9% from pre-drought to drought and on to ‘post-drought’ sub-periods. Relative growth rates correspondingly decreased by 38% and increased by 98%. Tree size and topography interacted in a complex manner with between-plot differences. The forest appears to have been sustained by off-setting elevated tree mortality by highly resilient stem growth. This last is seen as the key integrating tree variable which links the external driver (drought causing water stress) and population dynamics recorded as mortality and recruitment. Suitably sound measurements of stem girth, leading to valid growth rates, are needed to understand and model tree dynamic responses to perturbations. The proportion of sound data, however, is in part determined by the drought itself.