A Risk Analysis Method to Support Virtual Organization Partners’ Selection

Part 17: Risk Analysis

Multi-level, Multi-stage and Stochastic Optimization Models for Energy Conservation in Buildings for Federal, State and Local Agencies

Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) project selection is made difficult given real-world constraints, limited resources to implement savings retrofits, various suppliers in the market and project financing alternatives. Many of these energy efficient retrofit projects should be viewed as a series of investments with annual returns for these traditionally risk-averse agencies. Given a list of ECMs available, federal, state and local agencies must determine how to implement projects at lowest costs. The most common methods of implementation planning are suboptimal relative to cost. Federal, state and local agencies can obtain greater returns on their energy conservation investment over traditional methods, regardless of the implementing organization. This dissertation outlines several approaches to improve the traditional energy conservations models. Any public buildings in regions with similar energy conservation goals in the United States or internationally can also benefit greatly from this research. Additionally, many private owners of buildings are under mandates to conserve energy e.g., Local Law 85 of the New York City Energy Conservation Code requires any building, public or private, to meet the most current energy code for any alteration or renovation. Thus, both public and private stakeholders can benefit from this research. The research in this dissertation advances and presents models that decision-makers can use to optimize the selection of ECM projects with respect to the total cost of implementation. A practical application of a two-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) improves the current best practice for agencies concerned with making the most cost-effective selection leveraging energy services companies or utilities. The two-level model maximizes savings to the agency and profit to the energy services companies (Chapter 2). An additional model presented leverages a single congressional appropriation to implement ECM projects (Chapter 3). Returns from implemented ECM projects are used to fund additional ECM projects. In these cases, fluctuations in energy costs and uncertainty in the estimated savings severely influence ECM project selection and the amount of the appropriation requested. A risk aversion method proposed imposes a minimum on the number of “of projects completed in each stage. A comparative method using Conditional Value at Risk is analyzed. Time consistency was addressed in this chapter. This work demonstrates how a risk-based, stochastic, multi-stage model with binary decision variables at each stage provides a much more accurate estimate for planning than the agency’s traditional approach and deterministic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, a rolling-horizon model allows for subadditivity and superadditivity of the energy savings to simulate interactive effects between ECM projects. The approach makes use of inequalities (McCormick, 1976) to re-express constraints that involve the product of binary variables with an exact linearization (related to the convex hull of those constraints). This model additionally shows the benefits of learning between stages while remaining consistent with the single congressional appropriations framework.

Sino-African State Trading in Services: Added-Value through Angola-Model loaning, GATS commitments or FTAs?

Paper presented by Charlotte Sieber-Gasser at the 5th Annual TRAPCA Conference, Arusha (Tanzania), 25-26 November 2010. Despite the increasing volume of trade between China and African countries, not one single conventional free trade agreement (FTA) or economic partnership agreement (EPA) has yet been signed between an African country and China. Initially, Sino-African trade relations were to a very large extent centred on investments secured through bilateral investment agreements (BITs). The more recent Chinese investments on the African continent, however, are more informally based on FDI contracts with the state at the receiving end and a government-owned private company as the investor, or loosely attached to loans commonly known under term ‘the Angola-Model’. This rather unusual basis for economic integration and development assistance, outside the trodden path of free trade agreements and ODA, requires further analysis in order to understand how the current legal framework between China and the African continent impacts economic development and national sovereignty, and what kind of distributive consequences it may have.

Organization and jurisdiction of the courts of South Carolina

This study is designed to give a brief presentation of the judicial structure of South Carolina without going into the matters of procedure. The text of the study describes the manner of selection of the judges and the jurisdiction of each court. The accompanying chart attempts to show the different types and levels of courts in the state system and the chain of appeals from lower to higher courts.

Ethos and Ideology of Knowledge Organization: Toward Precepts for and Engaged Knowledge Organization Drawing on The Arts and Crafts Movement, Critical Theory, and Žižek

Ethos is the spirit that motivates ideas and practices. When we talk casually about the ethos of a town, state, or country we are describing the fundamental or at least underlying rationale for action, as we see it. Ideology is a way of looking at things.It is the set of ideas that constitute one’s goals, expectations, and actions. In this brief essay I want to create a space where we might talk about the ethos and ideology in knowledge organization from a particular point of view; combining ideas and inspiration from the Arts and Crafts movement of the early Twentieth Century, critical theory in extant knowledge organization work, the work of Slavoj Žižek, and the work of Thich Nhat Hahn on Engaged Buddhism.I will expand more below, but we can say here and now that there are many open questions about ethos and ideology in and of knowledge organization, both its practice and products. Many of them in classification, positioned as they are around identity politics of race, gender, and other marginalized groups, ask the classificationist to be mindful of the choice of terms and relationships between terms. From this work we understand that race and gender requires special consideration, which manifests as a particular concern for the form of representation inside extant schemes. Even with these advances in our understanding there are still other categories about which we must make decisions and take action. For example, there are ethical decisions about fiduciary resource allocation, political decisions about standards adoption, and even broader zeitgeist considerations like the question of Fordist conceptions (Day, 2001; Tennis 2006) of the mechanics of description and representation present in much of today’s practice.Just as taking action in a particular way is an ethical concern, so too is avoiding a lack of action. Scholars in Knowledge Organization have also looked at the absence of what we might call right action in the context of cataloguing and classification. This leads to some problems above, and hints at larger ethical concerns of watching a subtle semantic violence go on without intervention (Bowker and Star, 2001; Bade 2006).The problem is not to act or not act, but how to act or not act in an ethical way, or at least with ethical considerations. The action advocated by an ethical consideration for knowledge organization is an engaged one, and it is here where we can take a nod from contemporary ethical theory advanced by Engaged Buddhism. In this context we can see the manifestation of fourteen precepts that guide ethical action, and warn against lack of action.

Extending the Simple Knowledge Organization System for Concept Management in Vocabulary Development Applications

In this article, we describe the development of an exten- sion to the Simple Knowledge Organization System (SKOS) to accommodate the needs of vocabulary devel- opment applications (VDA) managing metadata schemes and requiring close tracking of change to both those schemes and their member concepts. We take a neo- pragmatic epistemic stance in asserting the need for an entity in SKOS modeling to mediate between the abstract concept and the concrete scheme. While the SKOS model sufficiently describes entities for modeling the current state of a scheme in support of indexing and search on the Semantic Web, it lacks the expressive power to serve the needs of VDA needing to maintain scheme historical continuity. We demonstrate prelimi- narily that conceptualizations drawn from empirical work in modeling entities in the bibliographic universe, such as works, texts, and exemplars, can provide the basis for SKOS extension in ways that support more rig- orous demands of capturing concept evolution in VDA.

Phylogenetics, Ancestral State Reconstruction, And A New Infrafamilial Classification Of The Pantropical Ochnaceae (medusagynaceae, Ochnaceae S.str., Quiinaceae) Based On Five Dna Regions.

Ochnaceae s.str. (Malpighiales) are a pantropical family of about 500 species and 27 genera of almost exclusively woody plants. Infrafamilial classification and relationships have been controversial partially due to the lack of a robust phylogenetic framework. Including all genera except Indosinia and Perissocarpa and DNA sequence data for five DNA regions (ITS, matK, ndhF, rbcL, trnL-F), we provide for the first time a nearly complete molecular phylogenetic analysis of Ochnaceae s.l. resolving most of the phylogenetic backbone of the family. Based on this, we present a new classification of Ochnaceae s.l., with Medusagynoideae and Quiinoideae included as subfamilies and the former subfamilies Ochnoideae and Sauvagesioideae recognized at the rank of tribe. Our data support a monophyletic Ochneae, but Sauvagesieae in the traditional circumscription is paraphyletic because Testulea emerges as sister to the rest of Ochnoideae, and the next clade shows Luxemburgia+Philacra as sister group to the remaining Ochnoideae. To avoid paraphyly, we classify Luxemburgieae and Testuleeae as new tribes. The African genus Lophira, which has switched between subfamilies (here tribes) in past classifications, emerges as sister to all other Ochneae. Thus, endosperm-free seeds and ovules with partly to completely united integuments (resulting in an apparently single integument) are characters that unite all members of that tribe. The relationships within its largest clade, Ochnineae (former Ochneae), are poorly resolved, but former Ochninae (Brackenridgea, Ochna) are polyphyletic. Within Sauvagesieae, the genus Sauvagesia in its broad circumscription is polyphyletic as Sauvagesia serrata is sister to a clade of Adenarake, Sauvagesia spp., and three other genera. Within Quiinoideae, in contrast to former phylogenetic hypotheses, Lacunaria and Touroulia form a clade that is sister to Quiina. Bayesian ancestral state reconstructions showed that zygomorphic flowers with adaptations to buzz-pollination (poricidal anthers), a syncarpous gynoecium (a near-apocarpous gynoecium evolved independently in Quiinoideae and Ochninae), numerous ovules, septicidal capsules, and winged seeds with endosperm are the ancestral condition in Ochnoideae. Although in some lineages poricidal anthers were lost secondarily, the evolution of poricidal superstructures secured the maintenance of buzz-pollination in some of these genera, indicating a strong selective pressure on keeping that specialized pollination system.

Emergent Antiferromagnetism Out Of The Hidden-order" State In Uru2si2: High Magnetic Field Nuclear Magnetic Resonance To 40 T."

Very high field (29)Si-NMR measurements using a fully (29)Si-enriched URu(2)Si(2) single crystal were carried out in order to microscopically investigate the hidden order (HO) state and adjacent magnetic phases in the high field limit. At the lowest measured temperature of 0.4 K, a clear anomaly reflecting a Fermi surface instability near 22 T inside the HO state is detected by the (29)Si shift, (29)K(c). Moreover, a strong enhancement of (29)K(c) develops near a critical field H(c) ≃ 35.6 T, and the ^{29}Si-NMR signal disappears suddenly at H(c), indicating the total suppression of the HO state. Nevertheless, a weak and shifted (29)Si-NMR signal reappears for fields higher than H(c) at 4.2 K, providing evidence for a magnetic structure within the magnetic phase caused by the Ising-type anisotropy of the uranium ordered moments.

[impact Variables On The Decline In Infant Mortality In The State Of São Paulo, Brazil: 1998-2008].

This is an ecological, analytical and retrospective study comprising the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo, the scope of which was to determine the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic variables and the model of care in relation to infant mortality rates in the period from 1998 to 2008. The ratio of average annual change for each indicator per stratum coverage was calculated. Infant mortality was analyzed according to the model for repeated measures over time, adjusted for the following correction variables: the city's population, proportion of Family Health Programs (PSFs) deployed, proportion of Growth Acceleration Programs (PACs) deployed, per capita GDP and SPSRI (São Paulo social responsibility index). The analysis was performed by generalized linear models, considering the gamma distribution. Multiple comparisons were performed with the likelihood ratio with chi-square approximate distribution, considering a significance level of 5%. There was a decrease in infant mortality over the years (p < 0.05), with no significant difference from 2004 to 2008 (p > 0.05). The proportion of PSFs deployed (p < 0.0001) and per capita GDP (p < 0.0001) were significant in the model. The decline of infant mortality in this period was influenced by the growth of per capita GDP and PSFs.

[diet Quality And Associated Factors Among The Elderly: A Population-based Study In Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil].

The aim of this study was to assess the quality of diet among the elderly and associations with socio-demographic variables, health-related behaviors, and diseases. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in a representative sample of 1,509 elderly participants in a health survey in Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil. Food quality was assessed using the Revised Diet Quality Index (DQI-R). Mean index scores were estimated and a multiple regression model was employed for the adjusted analyses. The highest diet quality scores were associated with age 80 years or older, Evangelical religion, diabetes mellitus, and physical activity, while the lowest scores were associated with home environments shared with three or more people, smoking, and consumption of soft drinks and alcoholic beverages. The findings emphasize a general need for diet quality improvements in the elderly, specifically in subgroups with unhealthy behaviors, who should be targeted with comprehensive strategies.

A New Species Of Pseudopaludicola Miranda-ribeiro, 1926 (anura: Leptodactylidae: Leiuperinae) From Northwestern State Of São Paulo, Brazil.

A new species of Pseudopaludicola is described from human-altered areas originally covered by Semideciduous Forest in northwestern state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Morphologically, the new species differs from four species belonging to the P. pusilla group by the absence of either T-shaped terminal phalanges or toe tips expanded, and from all other congeners except P. canga and P. facureae by possessing an areolate vocal sac, with dark reticulation. The higher duration (300-700 ms) of each single, pulsed note (9-36 nonconcatenated pulses) that compose the call in the new species distinguishes it from all other 14 species of Pseudopaludicola with calls already described (10-290 ms). Absence of harmonics also differ the advertisement call of the new species from the call of its sister species P. facureae, even though these two species presented unexpected low genetic distances. Although we could not identify any single morphological character distinguishing the new species from P. facureae, a PCA and DFA performed using 12 morphometric variables evidenced significant size differences between these two species. 

Site Specific Spin Dynamics In Bafe2as2: Tuning The Ground State By Orbital Differentiation.

The role of orbital differentiation on the emergence of superconductivity in the Fe-based superconductors remains an open question to the scientific community. In this investigation, we employ a suitable microscopic spin probe technique, namely Electron Spin Resonance (ESR), to investigate this issue on selected chemically substituted BaFe2As2 single crystals. As the spin-density wave (SDW) phase is suppressed, we observe a clear increase of the Fe 3d bands anisotropy along with their localization at the FeAs plane. Such an increase of the planar orbital content is interestingly independent of the chemical substitution responsible for suppressing the SDW phase. As a consequence, the magnetic fluctuations in combination with this particular symmetry of the Fe 3d bands are propitious ingredients for the emergence of superconductivity in this class of materials.

[should Pediatric Parenteral Nutrition Be Individualized?].

Parenteral nutrition (PN) formulations are commonly individualized, since their standardization seem inadequate for the pediatric population. This study aimed to evaluate the nutritional state and the reasons for PN individualization in pediatric patients using PN hospitalized in a tertiary hospital in Campinas, São Paulo. This longitudinal study comprised patients using PN followed by up to 67 days. Nutritional status was classified according to the criteria established by the World Health Organization (WHO) (2006) and WHO (2007). The levels of the following elements on blood were analyzed: sodium, potassium, ionized calcium, chloride, magnesium, inorganic phosphorus and triglycerides (TGL). Among the criteria for individualization, were considered undeniable: significant reduction in blood levels of potassium (<3 mEq/L), sodium (<125 mEq/)L, magnesium (<1 mEq/L), phosphorus (<1.5 mEq/L), ionic calcium (<1 mmol) and chloride (<90 mEq/L) or any value above the references. Twelve pediatric patients aged 1 month to 15 years were studied (49 individualizations). Most patients were classified as malnourished. It was observed that 74/254 (29.2%) of examinations demanded individualized PN by indubitable reasons. The nutritional state of patients was considered critical in most cases. Thus, the individualization performed in the beginning of PN for energy protein adequacy was indispensable. In addition, the individualized PN was indispensable in at least 29.2% of PN for correction of alterations found in biochemical parameters.

Burnout Syndrome In Nursing Assistants Of A Public Hospital In The State Of São Paulo.

The burnout syndrome is a psychosocial phenomenon that arises as a response to chronic interpersonal stressors present at work. There are many aspects that make nursing assistants vulnerable to chronic stress situations that may lead to burnout, highlighting the low degree of autonomy in the healthcare staff and spending more in direct contact with patients. To assess the prevalence of the burnout syndrome in nursing assistants in a public hospital, as well as its association with socio-demographic and professional variables. A socio-demographic and professional questionnaire and the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI-SS) were applied to 534 nursing assistants. The prevalence of burnout syndrome among nursing assistants was 5.9%. High emotional exhaustion was observed in 23.6%, 21.9% showed high depersonalization, and 29.9% low professional achievement. It was found statistically significant associations between emotional exhaustion, job sector and marital status; depersonalization, having children and health problems; low professional achievement and job sector and number of jobs. There was association between job satisfaction and the three dimensions. Professionals working in the health area must pay intense and extended attention to people who are dependent upon others. The intimate contact of the nursing assistants with hard-to-handle patients, as well as being afraid to make mistakes in healthcare are additional chronic stress factors and burnout syndrome cases related in this study.

The Psychedelic State Induced By Ayahuasca Modulates The Activity And Connectivity Of The Default Mode Network.

The experiences induced by psychedelics share a wide variety of subjective features, related to the complex changes in perception and cognition induced by this class of drugs. A remarkable increase in introspection is at the core of these altered states of consciousness. Self-oriented mental activity has been consistently linked to the Default Mode Network (DMN), a set of brain regions more active during rest than during the execution of a goal-directed task. Here we used fMRI technique to inspect the DMN during the psychedelic state induced by Ayahuasca in ten experienced subjects. Ayahuasca is a potion traditionally used by Amazonian Amerindians composed by a mixture of compounds that increase monoaminergic transmission. In particular, we examined whether Ayahuasca changes the activity and connectivity of the DMN and the connection between the DMN and the task-positive network (TPN). Ayahuasca caused a significant decrease in activity through most parts of the DMN, including its most consistent hubs: the Posterior Cingulate Cortex (PCC)/Precuneus and the medial Prefrontal Cortex (mPFC). Functional connectivity within the PCC/Precuneus decreased after Ayahuasca intake. No significant change was observed in the DMN-TPN orthogonality. Altogether, our results support the notion that the altered state of consciousness induced by Ayahuasca, like those induced by psilocybin (another serotonergic psychedelic), meditation and sleep, is linked to the modulation of the activity and the connectivity of the DMN.