965 resultados para Spatial load forecasting


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The present study investigated how object locations learned separately are integrated and represented as a single spatial layout in memory. Two experiments were conducted in which participants learned a room-sized spatial layout that was divided into two sets of five objects. Results suggested that integration across sets was performed efficiently when it was done during initial encoding of the environment but entailed cost in accuracy when it was attempted at the time of memory retrieval. These findings suggest that, once formed, spatial representations in memory generally remain independent and integrating them into a single representation requires additional cognitive processes.

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This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

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Spreading cell fronts are essential features of development, repair and disease processes. Many mathematical models used to describe the motion of cell fronts, such as Fisher’s equation, invoke a mean–field assumption which implies that there is no spatial structure, such as cell clustering, present. Here, we examine the presence of spatial structure using a combination of in vitro circular barrier assays, discrete random walk simulations and pair correlation functions. In particular, we analyse discrete simulation data using pair correlation functions to show that spatial structure can form in a spreading population of cells either through sufficiently strong cell–to–cell adhesion or sufficiently rapid cell proliferation. We analyse images from a circular barrier assay describing the spreading of a population of MM127 melanoma cells using the same pair correlation functions. Our results indicate that the spreading melanoma cell populations remain very close to spatially uniform, suggesting that the strength of cell–to–cell adhesion and the rate of cell proliferation are both sufficiently small so as not to induce any spatial patterning in the spreading populations.

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This paper presents the fire performance results of light gauge steel frame (LSF) walls lined with single and double plasterboards, and externally insulated with rock fibre insulation as obtained using a finite element analysis based parametric study. A validated numerical model was used to study the influence of various fire curves developed for a range of compartment characteristics. Data from the parametric study was utilized to develop a simplified method to predict the fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fire curves. Further, this paper also presents the details of suitable fire design rules based on current cold-formed steel standards and the modifications proposed by previous researchers. Of these the recently developed design rules by Gunalan and Mahendran [1] were investigated to determine their applicability to predict the axial compression strengths and fire resistance ratings (FRR) of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires. Finally, the stud failure times obtained from fire design rules and finite element studies were compared for LSF walls lined with single and double plasterboards, and externally insulated with rock fibres under realistic design fire curves.

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This paper reports on the use of a local order measure to quantify the spatial ordering of a quantum dot array (QDA). By means of electron ground state energy analysis in a quantum dot pair, it is demonstrated that the length scale required for such a measure to characterize the opto-electronic properties of a QDA is of the order of a few QD radii. Therefore, as local order is the primary factor that affects the opto-electronic properties of an array of quantum dots of homogeneous size, this order was quantified through using the standard deviation of the nearest neighbor distances of the quantum dot ensemble. The local order measure is successfully applied to quantify spatial order in a range of experimentally synthesized and numerically generated arrays of nanoparticles. This measure is not limited to QDAs and has wide ranging applications in characterizing order in dense arrays of nanostructures.

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This paper examines a buffer scheme to mitigate the negative impacts of power-conditioned loads on network voltage and transient stabilities. The scheme is based on the use of battery energy-storage systems in the buffers. The storage systems ensure that protected loads downstream of the buffers can ride through upstream voltage sags and swells. Also, by controlling the buffers to operate in either constant impedance or constant power modes, power is absorbed or injected by the storage systems. The scheme thereby regulates the rotor-angle deviations of generators and enhances network transient stability. A computational method is described in which the capacity of the storage systems is determined to achieve simultaneously the above dual objectives of load ride-through and stability enhancement. The efficacy of the resulting scheme is demonstrated through numerical examples.

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In this paper a novel controller for stable and precise operation of multi-rotors with heavy slung loads is introduced. First, simplified equations of motions for the multi-rotor and slung load are derived. The model is then used to design a Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) that can manage the highly nonlinear dynamics whilst accounting for system constraints. The controller is shown to simultaneously track specified waypoints whilst actively damping large slung load oscillations. A Linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) controller is also derived, and control performance is compared in simulation. Results show the improved performance of the Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) controller over a larger flight envelope, including aggressive maneuvers and large slung load displacements. Computational cost remains relatively small, amenable to practical implementation. Such systems for small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) may provide significant benefit to several applications in agriculture, law enforcement and construction.

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Business literature reveals the importance of generating innovative products and services, but much of the innovation research has been conducted in large firms and not replicated in small firms. These firms are likely to have different perspectives on innovation, which means that they will probably behave differently to large firms. Our study aims to unpack how firms in Spatial Information perceive and engage in innovation as a part of their business operation. To investigate these questions we conduct 20 in depth interviews of top management team members in Spatial Information firms in Australia. We find that small firms define innovation very broadly and measure innovation by its effect on productivity or market success. Innovation is seen as crucial to survival and success in a competitive environment. Most firms engage in product and/or service innovations, while some also mentioned marketing, process and organisational innovations. Most innovations were more exploitative rather than exploratory with only a few being radical innovations. Innovation barriers include time and money constraints, corporate culture and Government tendering practices. Our study sheds a light on our understanding of innovation in an under-researched sector; that is spatial information industry.

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Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.

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Introduction: In an attempt to reduce stress shielding in the proximal femur multiple new shorter stem design have become available. We investigated the load to fracture of a new polished tapered cemented short stem in comparison to the conventional polished tapered Exeter stem. Method: A total of forty-two stems, twenty-one short stems and twenty-one conventional stems both with three different offsets were cemented in a composite sawbone model and loaded to fracture. Results: study showed that femurs will break at a significantly lower load to failure with a shorter compared to conventional length Exeter stem. Conclusion: This Both standard and short stem design are safe to use as the torque to failure is 7–10 times as much as the torques seen in activities of daily living.

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Ecological studies are based on characteristics of groups of individuals, which are common in various disciplines including epidemiology. It is of great interest for epidemiologists to study the geographical variation of a disease by accounting for the positive spatial dependence between neighbouring areas. However, the choice of scale of the spatial correlation requires much attention. In view of a lack of studies in this area, this study aims to investigate the impact of differing definitions of geographical scales using a multilevel model. We propose a new approach -- the grid-based partitions and compare it with the popular census region approach. Unexplained geographical variation is accounted for via area-specific unstructured random effects and spatially structured random effects specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive process. Using grid-based modelling of random effects in contrast to the census region approach, we illustrate conditions where improvements are observed in the estimation of the linear predictor, random effects, parameters, and the identification of the distribution of residual risk and the aggregate risk in a study region. The study has found that grid-based modelling is a valuable approach for spatially sparse data while the SLA-based and grid-based approaches perform equally well for spatially dense data.

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Given the drawbacks for using geo-political areas in mapping outcomes unrelated to geo-politics, a compromise is to aggregate and analyse data at the grid level. This has the advantage of allowing spatial smoothing and modelling at a biologically or physically relevant scale. This article addresses two consequent issues: the choice of the spatial smoothness prior and the scale of the grid. Firstly, we describe several spatial smoothness priors applicable for grid data and discuss the contexts in which these priors can be employed based on different aims. Two such aims are considered, i.e., to identify regions with clustering and to model spatial dependence in the data. Secondly, the choice of the grid size is shown to depend largely on the spatial patterns. We present a guide on the selection of spatial scales and smoothness priors for various point patterns based on the two aims for spatial smoothing.

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Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.