Variabilità spaziale dei parametri di modelli afflussi-deflussi

L’invarianza spaziale dei parametri di un modello afflussi-deflussi può rivelarsi una soluzione pratica e valida nel caso si voglia stimare la disponibilità di risorsa idrica di un’area. La simulazione idrologica è infatti uno strumento molto adottato ma presenta alcune criticità legate soprattutto alla necessità di calibrare i parametri del modello. Se si opta per l’applicazione di modelli spazialmente distribuiti, utili perché in grado di rendere conto della variabilità spaziale dei fenomeni che concorrono alla formazione di deflusso, il problema è solitamente legato all’alto numero di parametri in gioco. Assumendo che alcuni di questi siano omogenei nello spazio, dunque presentino lo stesso valore sui diversi bacini, è possibile ridurre il numero complessivo dei parametri che necessitano della calibrazione. Si verifica su base statistica questa assunzione, ricorrendo alla stima dell’incertezza parametrica valutata per mezzo di un algoritmo MCMC. Si nota che le distribuzioni dei parametri risultano in diversa misura compatibili sui bacini considerati. Quando poi l’obiettivo è la stima della disponibilità di risorsa idrica di bacini non strumentati, l’ipotesi di invarianza dei parametri assume ancora più importanza; solitamente infatti si affronta questo problema ricorrendo a lunghe analisi di regionalizzazione dei parametri. In questa sede invece si propone una procedura di cross-calibrazione che viene realizzata adottando le informazioni provenienti dai bacini strumentati più simili al sito di interesse. Si vuole raggiungere cioè un giusto compromesso tra lo svantaggio derivante dall’assumere i parametri del modello costanti sui bacini strumentati e il beneficio legato all’introduzione, passo dopo passo, di nuove e importanti informazioni derivanti dai bacini strumentati coinvolti nell’analisi. I risultati dimostrano l’utilità della metodologia proposta; si vede infatti che, in fase di validazione sul bacino considerato non strumentato, è possibile raggiungere un buona concordanza tra le serie di portata simulate e osservate.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Influence of optic flow on postural control

The study of optic flow on postural control may explain how self-motion perception contributes to postural stability in young males and females and how such function changes in the old falls risk population. Study I: The aim was to examine the optic flow effect on postural control in young people (n=24), using stabilometry and surface-electromyography. Subjects viewed expansion and contraction optic flow stimuli which were presented full field, in the foveral or in the peripheral visual field. Results showed that optic flow stimulation causes an asymmetry in postural balance and a different lateralization of postural control in men and women. Gender differences evoked by optic flow were found both in the muscle activity and in the prevalent direction of oscillation. The COP spatial variability was reduced during the view of peripheral stimuli which evoked a clustered prevalent direction of oscillation, while foveal and random stimuli induced non-distributed directions. Study II was aimed at investigating the age-related mechanisms of postural stability during the view of optic flow stimuli in young (n=17) and old (n=19) people, using stabilometry and kinematic. Results showed that old people showed a greater effort to maintain posture during the view of optic flow stimuli than the young. Elderly seems to use the head stabilization on trunk strategy. Visual stimuli evoke an excitatory input on postural muscles, but the stimulus structure produces different postural effects. Peripheral optic flow stabilizes postural sway, while random and foveal stimuli provoke larger sway variability similar to those evoked in baseline. Postural control uses different mechanisms within each leg to produce the appropriate postural response to interact with extrapersonal environment. Ageing reduce the effortlessness to stabilize posture during optic flow, suggesting a neuronal processing decline associated with difficulty integrating multi-sensory information of self-motion perception and increasing risk of falls.

Raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität anhand von hochaufgelösten interpolierten Klimakarten am Beispiel von Europa (Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie)

Klimamontoring benötigt eine operative, raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität. Mit dieser Zielsetzung, funktionsbereite Karten regelmäßig zu erstellen, ist es hilfreich auf einen Blick, die räumliche Variabilität der Klimaelemente in der zeitlichen Veränderungen darzustellen. Für aktuelle und kürzlich vergangene Jahre entwickelte der Deutsche Wetterdienst ein Standardverfahren zur Erstellung solcher Karten. Die Methode zur Erstellung solcher Karten variiert für die verschiedenen Klimaelemente bedingt durch die Datengrundlage, die natürliche Variabilität und der Verfügbarkeit der in-situ Daten.rnIm Rahmen der Analyse der raum-zeitlichen Variabilität innerhalb dieser Dissertation werden verschiedene Interpolationsverfahren auf die Mitteltemperatur der fünf Dekaden der Jahre 1951-2000 für ein relativ großes Gebiet, der Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie (Europa und Naher Osten) angewendet. Die Region deckt ein relativ heterogenes Arbeitsgebiet von Grönland im Nordwesten bis Syrien im Südosten hinsichtlich der Klimatologie ab.rnDas zentrale Ziel der Dissertation ist eine Methode zur räumlichen Interpolation der mittleren Dekadentemperaturwerte für die Region VI zu entwickeln. Diese Methode soll in Zukunft für die operative monatliche Klimakartenerstellung geeignet sein. Diese einheitliche Methode soll auf andere Klimaelemente übertragbar und mit der entsprechenden Software überall anwendbar sein. Zwei zentrale Datenbanken werden im Rahmen dieser Dissertation verwendet: So genannte CLIMAT-Daten über dem Land und Schiffsdaten über dem Meer.rnIm Grunde wird die Übertragung der Punktwerte der Temperatur per räumlicher Interpolation auf die Fläche in drei Schritten vollzogen. Der erste Schritt beinhaltet eine multiple Regression zur Reduktion der Stationswerte mit den vier Einflussgrößen der Geographischen Breite, der Höhe über Normalnull, der Jahrestemperaturamplitude und der thermischen Kontinentalität auf ein einheitliches Niveau. Im zweiten Schritt werden die reduzierten Temperaturwerte, so genannte Residuen, mit der Interpolationsmethode der Radialen Basis Funktionen aus der Gruppe der Neuronalen Netzwerk Modelle (NNM) interpoliert. Im letzten Schritt werden die interpolierten Temperaturraster mit der Umkehrung der multiplen Regression aus Schritt eins mit Hilfe der vier Einflussgrößen auf ihr ursprüngliches Niveau hochgerechnet.rnFür alle Stationswerte wird die Differenz zwischen geschätzten Wert aus der Interpolation und dem wahren gemessenen Wert berechnet und durch die geostatistische Kenngröße des Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) wiedergegeben. Der zentrale Vorteil ist die wertegetreue Wiedergabe, die fehlende Generalisierung und die Vermeidung von Interpolationsinseln. Das entwickelte Verfahren ist auf andere Klimaelemente wie Niederschlag, Schneedeckenhöhe oder Sonnenscheindauer übertragbar.

Dynamics of inorganic carbon and carbonate saturation in the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Spain)

The study of inorganic carbon chemistry of the coastal ocean is conducted in the Gulf of Cádiz (GoC). Here we describe observations obtained during 4 sampling cruises in March, June, September and November 2015. The primary data set consists of state-of-the-art measurements of the keystone parameters of the marine CO2 system: Total Alkalinity (TA), pH, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). We have then calculated aragonite and calcite saturation state. The distribution of inorganic carbon system parameters in the north eastern shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz showed temporal and spatial variability. River input, mixing, primary production, respiration and remineralization were factors that controlled such distributions. Data related to carbonate saturation of calcite and aragonite reveal the occurrence of a supersaturated water; in any case, both species increased with distance and decreased with depth. The carbon system parameters present a different behaviour close to the coast to offshore ad at deeper water. In this area six water masses are clearly identified by their different chemical properties: Surface Atlantic Water, North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) and Mediterranean Water (MOW). Moreover, with this work the measurement of calcium in seawater is optimize, allowing a better quantification for future work of the saturation state of CaCO3.

Use of Land Surface Temperature to Estimate Surface Energy Fluxes: Contributions of Wilfried Brutsaert and Collaborators

Land surface temperature (LST) plays a key role in governing the land surface energy budget, and measurements or estimates of LST are an integral part of many land surface models and methods to estimate land surface sensible heat (H) and latent heat fluxes. In particular, the LST anchors the potential temperature profile in Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, from which H can be derived. Brutsaert has made important contributions to our understanding the nature of surface temperature measurements as well as the practical but theoretically sound use of LST in this framework. His work has coincided with the wide-spread availability of remotely sensed LST measurements. Use of remotely sensed LST estimates inevitably involves complicating factors, such as: varying spatial and temporal scales in measurements, theory, and models; spatial variability of LST and H; the relationship between measurements of LST and the temperature felt by the atmosphere; and the need to correct satellite-based radiometric LST measurements for the radiative effects of the atmosphere. This paper reviews the progress made in research in these areas by tracing and commenting on Brutsaert's contributions.

Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatio-temporal Modeling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area

Traffic particle concentrations show considerable spatial variability within a metropolitan area. We consider latent variable semiparametric regression models for modeling the spatial and temporal variability of black carbon and elemental carbon concentrations in the greater Boston area. Measurements of these pollutants, which are markers of traffic particles, were obtained from several individual exposure studies conducted at specific household locations as well as 15 ambient monitoring sites in the city. The models allow for both flexible, nonlinear effects of covariates and for unexplained spatial and temporal variability in exposure. In addition, the different individual exposure studies recorded different surrogates of traffic particles, with some recording only outdoor concentrations of black or elemental carbon, some recording indoor concentrations of black carbon, and others recording both indoor and outdoor concentrations of black carbon. A joint model for outdoor and indoor exposure that specifies a spatially varying latent variable provides greater spatial coverage in the area of interest. We propose a penalised spline formation of the model that relates to generalised kringing of the latent traffic pollution variable and leads to a natural Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for model fitting. We propose methods that allow us to control the degress of freedom of the smoother in a Bayesian framework. Finally, we present results from an analysis that applies the model to data from summer and winter separately

Landscape and forest structure at moose mortality sites on Isle Royale National Park. A LiDAR based assessment

Landscape structure and heterogeneity play a potentially important, but little understood role in predator-prey interactions and behaviourally-mediated habitat selection. For example, habitat complexity may either reduce or enhance the efficiency of a predator's efforts to search, track, capture, kill and consume prey. For prey, structural heterogeneity may affect predator detection, avoidance and defense, escape tactics, and the ability to exploit refuges. This study, investigates whether and how vegetation and topographic structure influence the spatial patterns and distribution of moose (Alces alces) mortality due to predation and malnutrition at the local and landscape levels on Isle Royale National Park. 230 locations where wolves (Canis lupus) killed moose during the winters between 2002 and 2010, and 182 moose starvation death sites for the period 1996-2010, were selected from the extensive Isle Royale Wolf-Moose Project carcass database. A variety of LiDAR-derived metrics were generated and used in an algorithm model (Random Forest) to identify, characterize, and classify three-dimensional variables significant to each of the mortality classes. Furthermore, spatial models to predict and assess the likelihood at the landscape scale of moose mortality were developed. This research found that the patterns of moose mortality by predation and malnutrition across the landscape are non-random, have a high degree of spatial variability, and that both mechanisms operate in contexts of comparable physiographic and vegetation structure. Wolf winter hunting locations on Isle Royale are more likely to be a result of its prey habitat selection, although they seem to prioritize the overall areas with higher moose density in the winter. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the distribution of moose mortality by predation is habitat-specific to moose, and not to wolves. In addition, moose sex, age, and health condition also affect mortality site selection, as revealed by subtle differences between sites in vegetation heights, vegetation density, and topography. Vegetation density in particular appears to differentiate mortality locations for distinct classes of moose. The results also emphasize the significance of fine-scale landscape and habitat features when addressing predator-prey interactions. These finer scale findings would be easily missed if analyses were limited to the broader landscape scale alone.

A 950 yr temperature reconstruction from Duckhole Lake, southern Tasmania, Australia

A lack of quantitative high resolution paleoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere limits the ability to examine current trends within the context of long-term natural climate variability. This study presents a temperature reconstruction for southern Tasmania based on analyses of a sediment core from Duckhole Lake (43.365°S, 146.875°E). The relationship between non-destructive whole core scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and the instrumental temperature record (ad 1911–2000) was used to develop a calibration-in-time reflectance spectroscopy-based temperature model. Results showed that a trough in reflectance from 650 to 700 nm, which represents chlorophyll and its derivatives, was significantly correlated to annual mean temperature. A calibration model was developed (R = 0.56, p auto < 0.05, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.21°C, five-year filtered data, calibration period 1911–2000) and applied down-core to reconstruct annual mean temperatures in southern Tasmania over the last c. 950 years. This indicated that temperatures were initially cool c. ad 1050, but steadily increased until the late ad 1100s. After a brief cool period in the ad 1200s, temperatures again increased. Temperatures steadily decreased during the ad 1600s and remained relatively stable until the start of the 20th century when they rapidly decreased, before increasing from ad 1960s onwards. Comparisons with high resolution temperature records from western Tasmania, New Zealand and South America revealed some similarities, but also highlighted differences in temperature variability across the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These are likely due to a combination of factors including the spatial variability in climate between and within regions, and differences between records that document seasonal (i.e. warm season/late summer) versus annual temperature variability. This highlights the need for further records from the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in order to constrain past natural spatial and seasonal/annual temperature variability in the region, and to accurately identify and attribute changes to natural variability and/or anthropogenic activities.

A satellite-based snow cover climatology (1985–2011) for the European Alps derived from AVHRR data

Seasonal snow cover is of great environmental and socio-economic importance for the European Alps. Therefore a high priority has been assigned to quantifying its temporal and spatial variability. Complementary to land-based monitoring networks, optical satellite observations can be used to derive spatially comprehensive information on snow cover extent. For understanding long-term changes in alpine snow cover extent, the data acquired by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors mounted onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and Meteorological Operational satellite (MetOp) platforms offer a unique source of information. In this paper, we present the first space-borne 1 km snow extent climatology for the Alpine region derived from AVHRR data over the period 1985–2011. The objective of this study is twofold: first, to generate a new set of cloud-free satellite snow products using a specific cloud gap-filling technique and second, to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of snow cover in the European Alps over the last 27 yr from the satellite perspective. For this purpose, snow parameters such as snow onset day, snow cover duration (SCD), melt-out date and the snow cover area percentage (SCA) were employed to analyze spatiotemporal variability of snow cover over the course of three decades. On the regional scale, significant trends were found toward a shorter SCD at lower elevations in the south-east and south-west. However, our results do not show any significant trends in the monthly mean SCA over the last 27 yr. This is in agreement with other research findings and may indicate a deceleration of the decreasing snow trend in the Alpine region. Furthermore, such data may provide spatially and temporally homogeneous snow information for comprehensive use in related research fields (i.e., hydrologic and economic applications) or can serve as a reference for climate models.

Geochemical synthesis for the Effingen Member in boreholes at Oftringen, Gösgen and Küttigen

The Effingen Member is a low-permeability rock unit of Oxfordian age (ca. 160 Ma) that occurs across northern Switzerland. It comprises sandy calcareous marls and (argillaceous) limestones. This report describes the hydrogeochemistry, mineralogy and supporting physical properties of the Effingen Member in three boreholes in the Jura-Südfuss area: Oftringen, Gösgen and Küttigen, where it is 220–240 m thick. The top of the Effingen Member is at 420, 66 and 32 m depths at the three sites. Core materials are available from Oftringen and Gösgen, whereas information from Küttigen is limited to cuttings, in-situ hydrogeological testing and geophysical logging. Hydrogeological boundaries of the Effingen Member vary between locations. Ground-water flows were identified during drilling at the top (Geissberg Member), but not at the base, of the Effingen Member at Oftringen, at the base (Hauptrogenstein Formation) of the Effingen Member at Gösgen, and in a limestone layer (Gerstenhübel unit) within the Effingen Member at Küttigen. The marls and limestones of the Effingen Member have carbonate contents of 46–91 wt.-% and clay-mineral contents of 5–37 wt.-%. Pyrite contents are up to 1.6 wt.-%, but no sulphate minerals were detected by routine analyses. Clay minerals are predominantly mixed-layer illite-smectite, illite and kaolinite, with sporadic traces of chlorite and smectite. Veins filled with calcite ± celestite occur through the Effingen Member at Oftringen but not at Gösgen or Küttigen. They formed at 50–70 ºC from externally derived fluids, probably of Miocene age. Water contents are 0.7–4.2 wt.-%, corresponding to a water-loss porosity range of 1.9–10.8 vol.-%. Specific surface areas, measured by the BET method, are 2–30 m2/g, correlating with clay-mineral contents. Water activity has been measured and yielded surprisingly low values down to 0.8. These cannot be explained by pore-water salinity alone and include other effects, such as changes in the fabric due to stress release or partial saturation. Observed variations in measurements are not fully understood. Cation exchange capacity (CEC) and exchangeable cation populations have been studied by the Ni-en method. CEC, derived from the consumption of the index cation Ni, is 9–99 meq/kgrock at a solid:liquid ratio of 1, correlating with the clay-mineral content. Cation concentrations in Ni-en extract solutions are in the order Na+≥Ca2+>Mg2+>K+>Sr2+. However, the analytical results from the Ni-en extractions have additional contributions from cations originating from pore water and from mineral dissolution reactions that occurred during extraction, and it was not possible to reliably quantify these contributions. Therefore, in-situ cation populations and selectivity coefficients could not be derived. A suite of methods have been used for characterising the chemical compositions of pore waters in the Effingen Member. Advective displacement was used on one sample from each Oftringen and Gösgen and is the only method that produces results that approach complete hydrochemical compositions. Aqueous extraction was used on core samples from these two boreholes and gives data only for Cl- and, in some cases, Br-. Out-diffusion was used on core samples from Oftringen and similarly gives data for Cl- and Br- only. For both aqueous extraction and out-diffusion, reaction of the experimental water with rock affected concentrations of cations, SO42 and alkalinity in experimental solutions. Another method, centrifugation, failed to extract pore water. Stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ2H) of pore waters in core samples from Oftringen were analysed by the diffusive exchange method and helium contents of pore water in Oftringen samples were extracted for mass spectrometric analysis by quantitative outgassing of preserved core samples. Several lines of evidence indicate that drillcore samples might not have been fully saturated when opened and subsampled in the laboratory. These include comparisons of water-loss porosities with physical porosities, water-activity measurements, and high contents of dissolved gas as inferred from ground-water samples. There is no clear proof of partial saturation and it is unclear whether this might represent in-situ conditions or is due to exsolution of gas due to the pressure release since drilling. Partial saturation would have no impact on the recalculation of pore-water compositions from aqueous extraction experiments using water-loss porosity data. The largest uncertainty in the pore-water Cl- concentrations recalculated from aqueous extraction and out-diffusion experiments is the magnitude of the anion-accessible fraction of water-loss porosity. General experience of clay-mineral rich formations suggests that the anion-accessible porosity fraction is very often about 0.5 and generally in a range of 0.3 to 0.6 and tends to be inversely correlated with clay-mineral contents. Comparisons of the Cl- concentration in pore water obtained by advective displacement with that recalculated from aqueous extraction of an adjacent core sample suggests a fraction of 0.27 for an Oftringen sample, whereas the same procedure for a Gösgen sample suggests a value of 0.64. The former value for anion-accessible porosity fraction is presumed to be unrepresentative given the local mineralogical heterogeneity at that depth. Through-diffusion experiments with HTO and 36Cl- suggest that the anion-accessible porosity fraction in the Effingen Member at Oftringen and Gösgen is around 0.5. This value is proposed as a typical average for rocks of the Effingen Member, bearing in mind that it varies on a local scale in response to the heterogeneity of lithology and pore-space architecture. The substantial uncertainties associated with the approaches to estimating anion-accessible porosity propagate into the calculated values of in-situ pore-water Cl- concentrations. On the basis of aqueous extraction experiments, and using an anion-accessible porosity fraction of 0.5, Cl- concentrations in the Effingen Member at Oftringen reach a maximum of about 14 g/L in the centre. Cl- decreases upwards and downwards from that, forming a curved depth profile. Cl- contents in the Effingen Member at Gösgen increase with depth from about 3.5 g/L to about 14 g/L at the base of the cored profile (which corresponds to the centre of the formation). Out-diffusion experiments were carried out on four samples from Oftringen, distributed through the Effingen Member. Recalculated Cl- concentrations are similar to those from aqueous extraction for 3 out of the 4 samples, and somewhat lower for one sample. Concentrations of other components, i.e. Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Sr2+, SO42- and HCO3- cannot be obtained from the aqueous extraction and out-diffusion experimental data because of mineral dissolution and cation exchange reactions during the experiments. Pore-water pH also is not constrained by those extraction experiments. The only experimental approach to obtain complete pore-water compositions for samples from Oftringen and Gösgen is advective displacement of pore water. The sample from Oftringen used for this experiment is from 445 m depth in the upper part of the Effingen Member and gave eluate with 16.5 g/L Cl- whereas aqueous extraction from a nearby sample indicated about 9 g/L Cl-. The sample from Gösgen used for advective displacement is from 123 m depth in the centre of the Effingen Member sequence and gave eluate with about 9 g/L Cl- whereas aqueous extraction gave 11.5 g/L Cl-. In both cases the pore waters have Na-(Ca)-Cl compositions and SO42- concentrations of about 1.1 g/L. The Gösgen sample has a Br/Cl ratio similar to that of sea water, whereas this ratio is lower for the Oftringen sample. Taking account of uncertainties in the applied experimental approaches, it is reasonable to place an upper limit of ca. 20 g/L on Cl- concentration for pore water in the Effingen Member in this area. There are major discrepancies between pore-water SO42- concentrations inferred from aqueous extraction or out-diffusion experiments and those obtained from advective displacement in both the Oftringen and Gösgen cases. A general conclusion is that all or at least part of the discrepancies are attributable to perturbation of the sulphur system and enhancement of SO42- by sulphate mineral dissolution and possibly minor pyrite oxidation during aqueous extraction and out-diffusion. Therefore, data for SO42- calculated from those pore-water sampling methods are considered not to be representative of in-situ conditions. A reference pore-water composition was defined for the Effingen Member in the Jura Südfuss area. It represents the probable upper limits of Cl- contents and corresponding anion and cation concentrations that are reasonably constrained by experimental data. Except for Cl- and possibly Na+ concentrations, this composition is poorly constrained especially with respect to SO42- and Ca2+ concentrations, and pH and alkalinity. Stable isotope compositions, δ18O and δ2H, of pore waters in the Effingen Member at Oftringen plot to the right of the meteoric water line, suggesting that 18O has been enriched by water-rock exchange, which indicates that the pore waters have a long residence time. A long residence time of pore water is supported by the level of dissolved 4He that has accumulated in pore water of the Effingen Member at Oftringen. This is comparable with, or slightly higher than, the amounts of 4He in the Opalinus Clay at Benken. Ground waters were sampled from flowing zones intersected by boreholes at the three locations. The general interpretation is that pore waters and ground-water solutes may have similar origins in Mesozoic and Cenozoic brackish-marine formations waters, but ground-water solutes have been diluted rather more than pore waters by ingress of Tertiary and Quaternary meteoric waters. The available hydrochemical data for pore waters from the Effingen Member at these three locations in the Jura-Südfuss area suggest that the geochemical system evolved slowly over geological periods of time, in which diffusion was an important mechanism of solute transport. The irregularity of Cl- and δ18O profiles and spatial variability of advective ground-water flows in the Malm-Dogger system suggests that palaeohydrogeological and hydrochemical responses to changing tectonic and surface environmental conditions were complex.

Seasonal controls on grassland microbial biogeography: Are they governed by plants, abiotic properties or both?

Temporal dynamics create unique and often ephemeral conditions that can influence soil microbial biogeography at different spatial scales. This study investigated the relation between decimeter to meter spatial variability of soil microbial community structure, plant diversity, and soil properties at six dates from April through November. We also explored the robustness of these interactions over time. An historically unfertilized, unplowed grassland in southwest Germany was selected to characterize how seasonal variability in the composition of plant communities and substrate quality changed the biogeography of soil microorganisms at the plot scale (10 m x 10 m). Microbial community spatial structure was positively correlated with the local environment, i.e. physical and chemical soil properties, in spring and autumn, while the density and diversity of plants had an additional effect in the summer period. Spatial relationships among plant and microbial communities were detected only in the early summer and autumn periods when aboveground biomass increase was most rapid and its influence on soil microbial communities was greatest due to increased demand by plants for nutrients. Individual properties exhibited varying degrees of spatial structure over the season. Differential responses of Gram positive and Gram negative bacterial communities to seasonal shifts in soil nutrients were detected. We concluded that spatial distribution patterns of soil microorganisms change over a season and that chemical soil properties are more important controlling factors than plant density and diversity. Finer spatial resolution, such as the mm to cm scale, as well as taxonomic resolution of microbial groups, could help determine the importance of plant species density, composition, and growth stage in shaping microbial community composition and spatial patterns. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antarctic Volcanic Flux Ratios from Law Dome Ice Cores

Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large quantities of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere. The aerosols that result from oxidation of the sulphur dioxide can produce significant cooling of the troposphere by reflecting or absorbing solar radiation. It is possible to obtain an estimate of the relative stratospheric sulphur aerosol concentration produced by different volcanoes by comparing sulphuric acid fluxes determined by analysis of polar ice cores. Here, we use a non-sea-salt sulphate time series derived from three well-dated Law Dome ice cores to investigate sulphuric acid flux ratios for major eruptions over the period AD 1301-1995. We use additional data from other cores to investigate systematic spatial variability in the ratios. Only for the Kuwae eruption (Law Dome ice date AD 1459.5) was the H2SO4 flux larger than that deposited by Tambora (Law Dome ice date AD 1816.7).

ICESat Measurements Reveal Complex Pattern of Elevation Changes on Siple Coast Ice Streams, Antarctica

We compare ICESat data (2003-2004) to airborne laser altimetry data (1997-98 and 1999-2000) to monitor surface changes over portions of Van der Veen (VdVIS), Whillans (WIS) and Kamb ice streams (KIS) in the Ross Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The spatial pattern of detected surface changes is generally consistent with earlier observations. However, important changes have occurred during the past decade. For example, areas on the VdVIS and WIS, where large thinning was detected by the airborne surveys, are now closer to being in balance. The upper trunk of KIS continues to build up with thickening rates reaching 0.4 m/year. Our results provide new evidence that the overall mass balance of the region is becoming more positive, but a significant spatial variability exists. They also demonstrate the potential of ICESat data for detecting spatial patterns of surface elevation change in Antarctica.

Contrasting long-term records of biomass burning in wet and dry savannas of equatorial East Africa

Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.