Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: coupled model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late Holocene

Reconstructions of salinity are used to diagnose changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. A widely used method of determining past salinity uses oxygen isotope (δOw) residuals after the extraction of the global ice volume and temperature components. This method relies on a constant relationship between δOw and salinity throughout time. Here we use the isotope-enabled fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 to test the application of spatially and time-independent relationships in the reconstruction of past ocean salinity. Simulations of the Late Holocene (LH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial (LIG) climates are performed and benchmarked against existing compilations of stable oxygen isotopes in carbonates (δOc), which primarily reflect δOw and temperature. We find that HadCM3 produces an accurate representation of the surface ocean δOc distribution for the LH and LGM. Our simulations show considerable variability in spatial and temporal δOw-salinity relationships. Spatial gradients are generally shallower but within ∼50% of the actual simulated LH to LGM and LH to LIG temporal gradients and temporal gradients calculated from multi-decadal variability are generally shallower than both spatial and actual simulated gradients. The largest sources of uncertainty in salinity reconstructions are found to be caused by changes in regional freshwater budgets, ocean circulation, and sea ice regimes. These can cause errors in salinity estimates exceeding 4 psu. Our results suggest that paleosalinity reconstructions in the South Atlantic, Indian and Tropical Pacific Oceans should be most robust, since these regions exhibit relatively constant δOw-salinity relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Largest uncertainties will affect North Atlantic and high latitude paleosalinity reconstructions. Finally, the results show that it is difficult to generate reliable salinity estimates for regions of dynamic oceanography, such as the North Atlantic, without additional constraints.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

An assessment of the latent and sensible heat flux on the simulated regional climate over Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean

A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) 10-year (1990-1999) simulation over southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) is evaluated to assess the mean climatology and the simulation errors of turbulent fluxes over the sea. Moreover, the relationship between these fluxes and the rainfall over some cyclogenetic areas is also analyzed. The RegCM3 results are validated using some reanalyses datasets (ERA40, R2, GPCP and WHOI). The summer and winter spatial patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes simulated by the RegCM3 are in agreement with the reanalyses (WHOI, R2 and ERA40). They show large latent heat fluxes exchange in the subtropical SAO and at higher latitudes in the warm waters of Brazil Current. In particular, the magnitude of RegCM3 latent heat fluxes is similar to the WHOI, which is probably related to two factors: (a) small specific humidity bias, and (b) the RegCM3 flux algorithm. In contrast, the RegCM3 presents large overestimation of sensible heat flux, though it simulates well their spatial pattern. This simulation error is associated with the RegCM3 underestimation of the 2-m air temperature. In southwestern SAO, in three known cyclogenetic areas, the reanalyses and the RegCM3 show the existence of different physical mechanisms that control the annual cycles of latent/sensible heating and rainfall. It is shown that over the eastern coast of Uruguay (35A degrees-43A degrees S) and the southeastern coast of Argentina (44A degrees-52A degrees S) the sea-air moisture and heat exchange play an important role to control the annual cycle of precipitation. This does not happen on the south/southeastern coast of Brazil.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of convective parameterization in the simulation of a cyclone over the South Atlantic

Numerical simulations are carried out to examine the role of the Kuo and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization schemes and dry dynamics on a cyclone development, in a weak baroclinic atmosphere, over subtropical South Atlantic Ocean. The initial phase of the cyclone development is investigated with a coarse horizontal mesh (75 km) and when the cyclone reaches the mature stage two different horizontal resolutions are used (75 and 25 km). The best performance simulation for the cyclone initial phase occurs when the Kuo convective scheme is applied, and this may be attributed to a greater diabatic warming in the troposphere. On the other hand, the dry simulation is not capable of simulating the correct location and intensity of the cyclone in its initial phase. During the mature phase, a cyclone over deepening occurs in the Kuo scheme experiment associated with larger latent heat release in a deep vertical column. The presence of downdraft currents in the KF scheme, which acts to cool and dry the lower levels, is essential to stabilize the atmosphere and to reproduce the nearest observation cyclone deepening rate. The largest cyclone deepening is found in the Kuo scheme high resolution experiment. This suggests that the KF convective scheme is less sensitive to the horizontal grid resolution. It was also revealed that the diabatic processes are crucial to simulate the observed features of this marine cyclone over subtropical region.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.

The intraplate Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone in the Amazon craton - Brazil

The largest earthquake observed in the stable continental interior of the South American plate occurred in Serra do Tombador, Mato Grosso state - Brazil, on January 31,1955 with a magnitude of 6.2 m(b). Since then no other earthquake has been located near the 1955 epicentre. However, in Porto dos Gauchos, 100 km northeast of Serra do Tombador, a recurrent seismicity has been observed since 1959. Both Serra do Tombador and Porto dos Gauchos are located in the Phanerozoic Parecis basin. Two magnitude 5 earthquakes occurred in Porto dos Gauchos, in 1998 and 2005, with intensities up to VI and V, respectively. These two main shocks were followed by aftershock sequences lasting more than three years each. Local seismic stations have been deployed by the Seismological Observatory of the University of Brasilia since 1998 to study the ""Porto dos Gauchos"" seismic zone (PGSZ). A local seismic refraction survey was carried out with two explosions to help define the seismic velocity model. Both the 1998 and 2005 earthquake sequences occurred in the same WSW-ENE oriented fault zone with right-lateral strike-slip mechanisms. The epicentral zone is in the Parecis basin, near its northern border where there are buried grabens, generally trending WNW-ESE, such as the deep Mesoproterozoic Caiabis graben which lies partly beneath the Parecis basin. However, the epicentral distribution indicates that the 1998 and 2005 sequences are related to a N60 degrees E fault which probably crosses the entire Caiabis graben. The 1955 earthquake, despite the uncertainty in its epicentre, does not seem to be directly related to any buried graben either. The seismicity in the Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone, therefore, is not directly related to rifted crust. The probable direction of the maximum horizontal stress near Porto dos Gauchos is roughly E-W, consistent with other focal mechanisms further south in the Pantanal basin and Paraguay. but seems to be different from the NW-SE direction observed further north in the Amazon basin. The recurrent seismicity observed in Porto dos Gauchos, and the large 1955 earthquake nearby, make this area of the Parecis basin one of the most important seismic zones of Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Basement depths in the Parecis Basin (Amazon) with receiver functions from small local earthquakes in the Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone

Receiver functions from small local earthquakes were used to determine sediment thicknesses in Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone (PGSZ), Parecis basin, Amazonian craton, Brazil. The high velocity contrast between basement and sediments (P-wave velocities of 6.1 and 3.0 km/s, respectively) favors the generation of clear P-to-S converted phases (Ps) seen in the radial component, and also S-to-P conversions (Sp) seen in the vertical component. A reference 10 velocity model determined with shallow refraction experiment in PGSZ helped to convert Ps P time differences to basement depths at 15 stations deployed for aftershocks studies. The results of receiver function integrated with the shallow refraction reveal that the basement depths in the PGSZ increases from the basin border in the north up to about 600 m depth in the south. The basement topography, however, does not vary smoothly and a basement high with a steep topography was detected near the epicentral area. A 400 m elevation difference within 1.7 km distance suggests a possible border fault of a buried graben. This feature seems to be oriented roughly WSW-ENE and could indicate basement structures related to the seismicity of the Porto dos Gauchos Seismic Zone. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Upper-mantle seismic anisotropy from SKS splitting in the South American stable platform: A test of asthenospheric flow models beneath the lithosphere

Upper-mantle seismic anisotropy has been extensively used to infer both present and past deformation processes at lithospheric and asthenospheric depths. Analysis of shear-wave splitting (mainly from core-refracted SKS phases) provides information regarding upper-mantle anisotropy. We present average measurements of fast-polarization directions at 21 new sites in poorly sampled regions of intra-plate South America, such as northern and northeastern Brazil. Despite sparse data coverage for the South American stable platform, consistent orientations are observed over hundreds of kilometers. Over most of the continent, the fast-polarization direction tends to be close to the absolute plate motion direction given by the hotspot reference model HS3-NUVEL-1A. A previous global comparison of the SKS fast-polarization directions with flow models of the upper mantle showed relatively poor correlation on the continents, which was interpreted as evidence for a large contribution of ""frozen"" anisotropy in the lithosphere. For the South American plate, our data indicate that one of the reasons for the poor correlation may have been the relatively coarse model of lithospheric thicknesses. We suggest that improved models of upper-mantle flow that are based on more detailed lithospheric thicknesses in South America may help to explain most of the observed anisotropy patterns.

Multivariate analysis of the energy cycle of the South American rainy season

The South American (SA) rainy season is studied in this paper through the application of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to a SA gridded precipitation analysis and to the components of Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. The EOF analysis leads to the identification of patterns of the rainy season and the associated mechanisms in terms of their energetics. The first combined EOF represents the northwest-southeast dipole of the precipitation between South and Central America, the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). The second combined EOF represents a synoptic pattern associated with the SACZ (South Atlantic convergence zone) and the third EOF is in spatial quadrature to the second EOF. The phase relationship of the EOFs, as computed from the principal components (PCs), suggests a nonlinear transition from the SACZ to the fully developed SAMS mode by November and between both components describing the SACZ by September-October (the rainy season onset). According to the LEC, the first mode is dominated by the eddy generation term at its maximum, the second by both baroclinic and eddy generation terms and the third by barotropic instability previous to the connection to the second mode by September-October. The predominance of the different LEC components at each phase of the SAMS can be used as an indicator of the onset of the rainy season in terms of physical processes, while the existence of the outstanding spectral peaks in the time dependence of the EOFs at the intraseasonal time scale could be used for monitoring purposes. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Regional representativity of AERONET observation sites during the biomass burning season in South America determined by correlation studies with MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth

This paper presents an analysis of ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) observations by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) in South America from 2001 to 2007 in comparison with the satellite AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), aboard TERRA and AQUA satellites. Data of 12 observation sites were used with primary interest in AERONET sites located in or downwind of areas with high biomass burning activity and with measurements available for the full time range. Fires cause the predominant carbonaceous aerosol emission signal during the dry season in South America and are therefore a special focus of this study. Interannual and seasonal behavior of the observed AOD at different sites were investigated, showing clear differences between purely fire and urban influenced sites. An intercomparison of AERONET and MODIS AOD annual correlations revealed that neither an interannual long-term trend may be observed nor that correlations differ significantly owing to different overpass times of TERRA and AQUA. Individual anisotropic representativity areas for each AERONET site were derived by correlating daily AOD of each site for all years with available individual MODIS AOD pixels gridded to 1 degrees x 1 degrees. Results showed that for many sites a good AOD correlation (R(2) > 0.5) persists for large, often strongly anisotropic, areas. The climatological areas of common regional aerosol regimes often extend over several hundreds of kilometers, sometimes far across national boundaries. As a practical application, these strongly inhomogeneous and anisotropic areas of influence are being implemented in the tropospheric aerosol data assimilation system of the Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport Model coupled to the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS) at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE). This new information promises an improved exploitation of local site sampling and, thus, chemical weather forecast.

Reproductive ecology of dipsadine snakes, with emphasis on South American species

A relatively large amount of variation occurs in the reproductive ecology of tropical snakes, and this variation is generally regarded as being a consequence of seasonality in climate and prey availability. In some groups, even closely related species may differ in their reproductive ecology; however, in others it seems to be very conservative. Here we explore whether characters related to reproduction are phylogenetically constrained in a monophyletic group of snakes, the subfamily Dipsadinae, which ranges from Mexico to southern South America. We provide original data on reproduction for Leptodeira annulata, Imantodes cenchoa, and three species of Sibynomorphus from southern, southeastern and central Brazil, and data from literature for other species and populations of dipsadines. Follicular cycles were seasonal in Atractus reticulatus, Dipsa, albifrons, Hypsiglena torquata, Leptodeira maculata, L. punctata, Sibynomorphus spp. and Sibon sanniola from areas where climate is seasonal. In contrast, extended or continuous follicular cycles were recorded in Dipsas catesbyi, D. neivai, Imantodes cenchoa, Leptodeira annulata, and Ninia maculata from areas with seasonal and aseasonal climates. Testicular cycles also varied from seasonal (in H. torquiata) to continuous (in Dipsa,5 spp., Leptodeira annulata, L. maculata, N. maculata, and Sibynomorphus spp.). Most dipsadines are small (less than 500 rum SVL), and females attain sexual maturity with similar relative body size than males. Sexual dimorphism occurred in terms of SVL and tail length in most species, and clutch size tended to be small (less than five eggs). Combat behavior occurs in Imantodes cenchoa, which did not show sexual size dimorphism. Reproductive timing, for both females and males, varied among species but in general there were no differences between the tribes of Dipsadinae in most of the reproductive characteristics, such as mean body size, relative size at sexual maturity, sexual size and tail dimorphism, duration of vitellogenesis or egg-carrying in oviducts.

Quantitative analysis of indexed publications on seventeen model organisms in nine countries, from 1974 to 2006

Developed countries have an even distribution of published papers on the seventeen model organisms. Developing countries have biased preferences for a few model organisms which are associated with endemic human diseases. A variant of the Hirsch-index, that we call the mean (mo)h-index (""model organism h-index""), shows an exponential relationship with the amount of papers published in each country on the selected model organisms. Developing countries cluster together with low mean (mo)h-indexes, even those with high number of publications. The growth curves of publications on the recent model Caenorhabditis elegans in developed countries shows different formats. We also analyzed the growth curves of indexed publications originating from developing countries. Brazil and South Korea were selected for this comparison. The most prevalent model organisms in those countries show different growth curves when compared to a global analysis, reflecting the size and composition of their research communities.

A conformal invariant growth model

We present a one-parameter extension of the raise and peel one-dimensional growth model. The model is defined in the configuration space of Dyck (RSOS) paths. Tiles from a rarefied gas hit the interface and change its shape. The adsorption rates are local but the desorption rates are non-local; they depend not only on the cluster hit by the tile but also on the total number of peaks (local maxima) belonging to all the clusters of the configuration. The domain of the parameter is determined by the condition that the rates are non-negative. In the finite-size scaling limit, the model is conformal invariant in the whole open domain. The parameter appears in the sound velocity only. At the boundary of the domain, the stationary state is an adsorbing state and conformal invariance is lost. The model allows us to check the universality of non-local observables in the raise and peel model. An example is given.