O impacto das novas biotecnologias no pensamento político

A dissertação de mestrado “O Impacto das Novas Biotecnologias no Pensamento Político – A problemática das células estaminais embrionárias” partiu do pressuposto basilar de que a Humanidade se depara com uma ruptura de modelo de pensamento sem paralelo na História. O Homem detém hoje um conhecimento científico sem precedentes e vê-se perante o potencial das novas biotecnologias que, pela primeira, vez podem alterar a forma de olhar sobre si próprio, não apenas enquanto ser social mas sobretudo como entidade biológica. Todo o enquadramento da dissertação tem em consideração os diferentes momentos da História em que certos homens levados pela inevitabilidade do progresso intelectual e científico contribuíram decisivamente para alterar profundamente os modelos de pensamento. Modelos que, surgidos em determinado contextos históricos, foram considerados de ruptura e revolucionários. Em sentido contrário, numa espécie de reacção conservadora, foram surgindo forças de autoridade e de poder, rejeitando novos modelos e paradigmas que, de uma maneira ou de outra, pudessem pôr em causa o sistema de sociedade instituído. As grandes rupturas na História da Humanidade resultaram desse confronto de ideias, entre um modelo de pensamento vigente e um novo paradigma proposto. Ao longo da dissertação apresentada são analisados vários períodos de ruptura, com particular enfoque para o advento da genética no século XIX e posterior revolução biotecnológica nos Estados Unidos que, num futuro próximo, poderá vir a curar doenças congénitas e degenerativas, funcionando como uma espécie de “kit de reparação do corpo humano, e, num horizonte mais alargado, poderá potenciar a possibilidade da criação de um “outro eu”, produto do Homem e não do livre arbítrio. Pela primeira vez, o Homem tem conhecimento e técnica para criar um mundo pós-humano, onde cada um é resultado da vontade individual dos seus progenitores, dando-se, assim, início a uma nova História. Mas, tudo isto levanta uma série de questões morais, éticas e políticas. Dilemas quanto aos processos de investigação e quanto às consequências que a sua aplicação poderá trazer para a própria Humanidade. Como trabalho de Ciência Política não cabe no propósito deste tecer cenários filosóficos quanto ao futuro do Homem face aos avanços da investigação genética, mas sim tentar analisar e procurar encontrar um padrão de comportamento na forma como os legisladores e governantes, mediante a sua base doutrinária, têm abordado uma matéria cujas implicações terão eventualmente impacto na concepção da própria Humanidade.

Por media vida deslumbrados (Dossier: Narradores ecuatorianos de la década de 1950)

En este trabajo se plantea que acaso con mayor intensidad que en Huasipungo (1934) y El Chulla Romero y Flores (1958), es en tres obras poco estudiadas de Jorge Icaza donde puede apreciarse con claridad –tal que deslumbra– su propuesta estética: en la pieza de teatro Flagelo (1936), la novela Media vida deslumbrados (1942) y el cuento «El nuevo San Jorge» (1952). Sin apartarse de la denuncia social, Icaza cierra con Flagelo su propuesta dramática, constituyen una suerte de manifiesto literario, por las repercusiones estéticas que alcanzan a la narrativa del autor. En Media vida deslumbrados se puede apreciar un equilibrio efectivo entre las propuestas del autor y su afán de denuncia social. «El nuevo San Jorge», según el autor de este ensayo, sería la obra que alberga lo más radical, en cuanto propuesta estética, de toda la obra icaciana, destaca los elementos neo-barrocos de la misma, con insistencia en los juegos de máscaras, las intermitencias entre las luces y las sombras, y en el múltiple y a la vez unívoco rostro de quien detenta el poder –algunos de estos elementos comunes a las dos obras comentadas, y a El Chulla Romero y Flores.

La identidad transfigurada: las prácticas barrocas de ocultamiento en el discurso ilustrado de Eugenio Espejo (Dossier: Novela, historia y nación en América Latina)

Este texto toma por objeto el conjunto de la obra de Eugenio Espejo (Quito, 1747-1795) para recorrer en ella su complejo sistema de desdoblamientos, proyecciones y ocultamientos –fundamentados en el mecanismo del anónimo– que la ubican como el caso más interesante y significativo de las letras ecuatorianas en lo que se refiere a la génesis autoral. El propósito de Landázuri es sintetizar y ordenar la información existente sobre los procedimientos de desdoblamiento o anonimato visibles en la obra de Espejo y tratar de comprenderlos a la luz de los mecanismos discursivos del barroco, enfrentados –o asimilados– en el paradigma dieciochesco de la Ilustración. Para ello, acude a las tesis de Bolívar Echeverría sobre el “ethos barroco” y sus relaciones con la concepción de modernidad, lo cual sin duda permite una comprensión bastante amplia de lo que ocurre en la obra y cosmovisión de Espejo como síntesis y caso significativo de su época.

Collaborative eLearning Assistant Network: caring agents are conscious agents

Would a research assistant - who can search for ideas related to those you are working on, network with others (but only share the things you have chosen to share), doesn’t need coffee and who might even, one day, appear to be conscious - help you get your work done? Would it help your students learn? There is a body of work showing that digital learning assistants can be a benefit to learners. It has been suggested that adaptive, caring, agents are more beneficial. Would a conscious agent be more caring, more adaptive, and better able to deal with changes in its learning partner’s life? Allow the system to try to dynamically model the user, so that it can make predictions about what is needed next, and how effective a particular intervention will be. Now, given that the system is essentially doing the same things as the user, why don’t we design the system so that it can try to model itself in the same way? This should mimic a primitive self-awareness. People develop their personalities, their identities, through interacting with others. It takes years for a human to develop a full sense of self. Nobody should expect a prototypical conscious computer system to be able to develop any faster than that. How can we provide a computer system with enough social contact to enable it to learn about itself and others? We can make it part of a network. Not just chatting with other computers about computer ‘stuff’, but involved in real human activity. Exposed to ‘raw meaning’ – the developing folksonomies coming out of the learning activities of humans, whether they are traditional students or lifelong learners (a term which should encompass everyone). Humans have complex psyches, comprised of multiple strands of identity which reflect as different roles in the communities of which they are part – so why not design our system the same way? With multiple internal modes of operation, each capable of being reflected onto the outside world in the form of roles – as a mentor, a research assistant, maybe even as a friend. But in order to be able to work with a human for long enough to be able to have a chance of developing the sort of rich behaviours we associate with people, the system needs to be able to function in a practical and helpful role. Unfortunately, it is unlikely to get a free ride from many people (other than its developer!) – so it needs to be able to perform a useful role, and do so securely, respecting the privacy of its partner. Can we create a system which learns to be more human whilst helping people learn?

Sampling uncertainties in surface radiation budget calculations in RADAGAST

In the Radiative Atmospheric Divergence Using ARM Mobile Facility GERB and AMMA Stations (RADAGAST) project we calculate the divergence of radiative flux across the atmosphere by comparing fluxes measured at each end of an atmospheric column above Niamey, in the African Sahel region. The combination of broadband flux measurements from geostationary orbit and the deployment for over 12 months of a comprehensive suite of active and passive instrumentation at the surface eliminates a number of sampling issues that could otherwise affect divergence calculations of this sort. However, one sampling issue that challenges the project is the fact that the surface flux data are essentially measurements made at a point, while the top-of-atmosphere values are taken over a solid angle that corresponds to an area at the surface of some 2500 km2. Variability of cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere mean that the downwelling fluxes, even when averaged over a day, will not be an exact match to the area-averaged value over that larger area, although we might expect that it is an unbiased estimate thereof. The heterogeneity of the surface, for example, fixed variations in albedo, further means that there is a likely systematic difference in the corresponding upwelling fluxes. In this paper we characterize and quantify this spatial sampling problem. We bound the root-mean-square error in the downwelling fluxes by exploiting a second set of surface flux measurements from a site that was run in parallel with the main deployment. The differences in the two sets of fluxes lead us to an upper bound to the sampling uncertainty, and their correlation leads to another which is probably optimistic as it requires certain other conditions to be met. For the upwelling fluxes we use data products from a number of satellite instruments to characterize the relevant heterogeneities and so estimate the systematic effects that arise from the flux measurements having to be taken at a single point. The sampling uncertainties vary with the season, being higher during the monsoon period. We find that the sampling errors for the daily average flux are small for the shortwave irradiance, generally less than 5 W m−2, under relatively clear skies, but these increase to about 10 W m−2 during the monsoon. For the upwelling fluxes, again taking daily averages, systematic errors are of order 10 W m−2 as a result of albedo variability. The uncertainty on the longwave component of the surface radiation budget is smaller than that on the shortwave component, in all conditions, but a bias of 4 W m−2 is calculated to exist in the surface leaving longwave flux.

Modelling effects of prolonged conditioning on dormancy and germination of Striga hermonthica

The impact of environment on the germination biology of the parasite was studied in the laboratory with seeds conditioned at various water potentials, urea concentrations and at 17.5 to 37.5°C for up to 133 days. Maximum germination was observed at 20 to 25°C. Water stress and urea suppressed maximum germination. The final percentage germination response to period of conditioning showed a non-linear relationship and suggests the release of seeds from dormancy during the initial period and later on dormancy induction. Germination percentage increased with increase in conditioning period to a threshold and remained stable for variable periods followed by a decline with further extension of conditioning time. The decline in germination finally terminated in zero germination in most treatments before the end of experimentation. The investigated factors of temperature, water potential and urea showed clear effects on the expression of dormancy pattern of the parasite. The effects of water potential and urea were viewed as modifying a primary response of seeds to temperature during conditioning. The changes in germinability potential during conditioning were consistent with the hypothesis that dormancy periods are normally distributed within seed populations and that loss of primary dormancy precedes induction of secondary dormancy. Hence an additive mathematical model of loss of primary dormancy and induction of secondary as affected by environment was developed as: G = {[Φ-1 (Kp+ (po+pnN+pwW) (T-Tb) t)]-[Φ-1 (Ks+ ((swW+sa)+sorT)t)]}[Φ-1(aT2+bT+c+cwW)].

Decision-making in a phase II clinical trial: a new approach combining Bayesian and frequentist concepts

The aim of a phase H clinical trial is to decide whether or not to develop an experimental therapy further through phase III clinical evaluation. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to the phase H trial, although we assume that subsequent phase III clinical trials will hat,e standard frequentist analyses. The decision whether to conduct the phase III trial is based on the posterior predictive probability of a significant result being obtained. This fusion of Bayesian and frequentist techniques accepts the current paradigm for expressing objective evidence of therapeutic value, while optimizing the form of the phase II investigation that leads to it. By using prior information, we can assess whether a phase II study is needed at all, and how much or what sort of evidence is required. The proposed approach is illustrated by the design of a phase II clinical trial of a multi-drug resistance modulator used in combination with standard chemotherapy in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Standardization of procurement: National or international?

The ISO has issued a Draft International Standard on construction procurement and the British Standards Institute is drafting a standard based upon this for use in the UK. Three questions arise from these observations. First, what kind of consultation processes would be adequate to ensure that such a standard meets the requirements of an industry as diverse as construction? Second, why would an international standard be inappropriate for use in a country like UK? Third, what sort of issues should such a standard seek to cover? There are strong precedents for process standards, such as quality assurance, design management and workmanship on building sites. So the idea of a standard on procurement is not unusual. Moreover, there are many differences in tendering and procurement practice that are wasteful and even collusive or illegal. These issues are explored with a view to offering insights and suggestions for guidance based on the experiences in UK. The research method is first-hand observation of the drafting committee who are dealing with the British Standard. As an example to test and inform the standardization concept, six different standard guidance documents on tendering procedures are compared. This reveals a significant degree of diversity, and based on this, nine stages for implementing a tendering procedure are derived.

The symbiotic roles of empirical experimentation and thought experimentation in the learning of physics

This study was an attempt to identify the epistemological roots of knowledge when students carry out hands-on experiments in physics. We found that, within the context of designing a solution to a stated problem, subjects constructed and ran thought experiments intertwined within the processes of conducting physical experiments. We show that the process of alternating between these two modes- empirically experimenting and experimenting in thought- leads towards a convergence on scientifically acceptable concepts. We call this process mutual projection. In the process of mutual projection, external representations were generated. Objects in the physical environment were represented in an imaginary world and these representations were associated with processes in the physical world. It is through this coupling that constituents of both the imaginary world and the physical world gain meaning. We further show that the external representations are rooted in sensory interaction and constitute a semi-symbolic pictorial communication system, a sort of primitive 'language', which is developed as the practical work continues. The constituents of this pictorial communication system are used in the thought experiments taking place in association with the empirical experimentation. The results of this study provide a model of physics learning during hands-on experimentation.

Defining a framework for the evaluation of information

In any enterprise, decisions need be made during the life cycle of information about its management. This requires information evaluation to take place; a little-understood process. For evaluation support to be both effective and resource efficient, some sort of automatic or semi-automatic evaluation method would be invaluable. Such a method would require an understanding of the diversity of the contexts in which evaluation takes place so that evaluation support can have the necessary context-sensitivity. This paper identifies the dimensions influencing the information evaluation process and defines the elements that characterise them, thus providing the foundations for a context-sensitive evaluation framework.

The value premium and time-varying volatility

Numerous studies have documented the failure of the static and conditional capital asset pricing models to explain the difference in returns between value and growth stocks. This paper examines the post-1963 value premium by employing a model that captures the time-varying total risk of the value-minus-growth portfolios. Our results show that the time-series of value premia is strongly and positively correlated with its volatility. This conclusion is robust to the criterion used to sort stocks into value and growth portfolios and to the country under review (the US and the UK). Our paper is consistent with evidence on the possible role of idiosyncratic risk in explaining equity returns, and also with a separate strand of literature concerning the relative lack of reversibility of value firms' investment decisions.

Literature for the very young

This chapter looks at books which will support the very young through their earliest childhood and first few years of schooling. Learning to read can be hard but it is a lot harder if you never encounter the sort of literature that will engage you and motivate you to see the whole learning process as worthwhile. The chapter considers ways to share great texts with young children and how to select good books to share.

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs (Global Circulation Models) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961–2000 and for the 2161–2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs (Regional Climate Models) analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature several inconsistencies and cannot be used as a verification benchmark for the hydrological cycle in the Danubian region. In the scenario runs, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. Moreover, in several cases we find that qualitatively different behaviors emerge among the models: the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of average model, and often it falls between the models’ clusters.

An experimental manipulation of responsibility in children: a test of the inflated responsibility model of obsessive-compulsive disorder

The objective of this study was to investigate whether Salkovskis (1985) inflated responsibility model of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) applied to children. In an experimental design, 81 children aged 9– 12 years were randomly allocated to three conditions: an inflated responsibility group, a moderate responsibility group, and a reduced responsibility group. In all groups children were asked to sort sweets according to whether or not they contained nuts. At baseline the groups did not differ on children’s self reported anxiety, depression, obsessive-compulsive symptoms or on inflated responsibility beliefs. The experimental manipulation successfully changed children’s perceptions of responsibility. During the sorting task time taken to complete the task, checking behaviours, hesitations, and anxiety were recorded. There was a significant effect of responsibility level on the behavioural variables of time taken, hesitations and check; as perceived responsibility increased children took longer to complete the task and checked and hesitated more often. There was no between-group difference in children’s self reported state anxiety. The results offer preliminary support for the link between inflated responsibility and increased checking behaviours in children and add to the small but growing literature suggesting that cognitive models of OCD may apply to children.