National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Report on the surveys regarding parental preferences on primary school patronage

The Minister for Education and Skills outlined his action plan in response to the report of the Advisory Group to the Forum on Patronage and Pluralism in the Primary Sector in June of last year. As part of the action plan the Minister announced that surveys of parental preferences in 44 areas would be undertaken, beginning with five pilot areas in the autumn of 2012. All of the areas to be surveyed under this process fit the following criteria: Population of between 5,000 and 20,000 inhabitants according to the 2011 census Population has increased by less than 20% during the intercensal period 2006 to 2011

Report to New Schools Establishment Group on the pilot surveys regarding parental preferences on primary school patronage

The Minister for Education and Skills outlined his action plan in response to the report of the Advisory Group to the Forum on Patronage and Pluralism in the Primary Sector in June of this year. As part of the action plan the Minister announced that surveys of parental preferences in 44 areas would be undertaken, beginning with five pilot areas in the autumn of 2012. All of the areas to be surveyed under this process fit the following criteria: • Population of between 5,000 and 20,000 inhabitants according to the 2011 census • Population has increased by less than 20% during the inter-censal period 2006 to 2011 Surveys were undertaken on a pilot basis initially in five areas. The surveys were open for a total of three weeks from Monday 22nd October to Friday 9th November 2012 inclusive. This report has been prepared for the New Schools Establishment Group regarding the five pilot surveys and the analysis of the outcomes in each area. The report is comprised of this overall summary document and the separate detailed analysis documents in respect of each of the five areas that were surveyed and which are contained in Appendices 1 to 5. Appendix 6 is a sample of the paper survey which is similar to the on-line survey.

Soil fungal communities of grasslands are environmentally structured at a regional scale in the Alps.

Studying patterns of species distributions along elevation gradients is frequently used to identify the primary factors that determine the distribution, diversity and assembly of species. However, despite their crucial role in ecosystem functioning, our understanding of the distribution of below-ground fungi is still limited, calling for more comprehensive studies of fungal biogeography along environmental gradients at various scales (from regional to global). Here, we investigated the richness of taxa of soil fungi and their phylogenetic diversity across a wide range of grassland types along a 2800 m elevation gradient at a large number of sites (213), stratified across a region of the Western Swiss Alps (700 km(2)). We used 454 pyrosequencing to obtain fungal sequences that were clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). The OTU diversity-area relationship revealed uneven distribution of fungal taxa across the study area (i.e. not all taxa are everywhere) and fine-scale spatial clustering. Fungal richness and phylogenetic diversity were found to be higher in lower temperatures and higher moisture conditions. Climatic and soil characteristics as well as plant community composition were related to OTU alpha, beta and phylogenetic diversity, with distinct fungal lineages suggesting distinct ecological tolerances. Soil fungi, thus, show lineage-specific biogeographic patterns, even at a regional scale, and follow environmental determinism, mediated by interactions with plants.

The development of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for Trypanosoma vivax antibodies and its use in epidemiological surveys

There are data indicating that the distribution of Trypanosoma vivax in the Brazilian territory is expanding with potential to reach other areas, where the vectors are present. The detection of anti-trypanosomal antibodies in serum provides important information of the trypanosomal status in cattle herds. For this reason, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Tv-ELISA-Ab) with crude antigen from one Brazilian isolate of T. vivax was developed and evaluated. The sensitivity and specificity were respectively 97.6 and 96.9%. In the evaluation of cross-reactions, three calves inoculated with T. evansi trypimastigotes blood forms showed optical densities (OD) under the cut-off during the whole experimental period, except one at 45 days post-inoculation. With relation to Babesia bovis, B. bigemina, and Anaplasma marginale, which are endemic hemoparasites in the studied area, the cross-reactions were shown to be 5.7, 5.3, and 1.1%, respectively. The first serological survey of Pantanal and state of Pará showed that T. vivax is widespread, although regions within both areas had significantly different prevalences. Therefore, this Tv-ELISA-Ab may be a more appropriate test for epidemiological studies in developing countries because the diagnostic laboratories in most countries may be able to perform an ELISA, which is not true for polymerase chain reaction.

Assessment of schistosomiasis, through school surveys, in the Forest Zone of Pernambuco, Brazil

This work had the objective of assessing the present epidemiological situation regarding schistosomiasis through performing Kato-Katz coproscopic tests on representative samples of schoolchildren from each of the 43 municipality of endemic area of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The methodology is recommended by the World Health Organization to conduct sampled surveys among children at elementary school levels, ideal target group for baseline surveys: (i) schools are accessible; (ii) the greatest prevalence of schistosomiasis is found within this group; (iii) the data gathered from this age group can be used for intervention within the community as a whole. The following infection indicators were utilized: positivity (percentage of individuals examined with eggs of Schistosoma mansoni in the feces) and severity (geometric mean number of eggs per gram of feces, epg). These indicators allowed the area in general and the municipalities in particular to be categorized into prevalence and severity classes for S. mansoni. The prevalence classes were: low (<10%), medium (> 10 and < 50%), and high (> 50%); the severity classes were: low (1-99 epg), moderate (100-399 epg), and severe (> 400 epg). For the geohelminthic diseases, the following indicators were used: positivity for each geohelminth (percentage of individuals examined with eggs of geohelminths), and cumulative positivity (percentage of individuals examined with eggs of at least one geohelminth). The municipalities were categorized by means of their cumulative positivity into the following geohelminth prevalence classes (WHO 2002): low (< 50%), medium (> 50 and < 70%), and high (> 70%). The study covered 271 schools in 179 different localities, thus giving a total of 11,234 examinations performed. The overall positivity for S. mansoni was 14.4% and the egg count for this parasite in the feces gave a geometric mean of 67.9 epg which suggests a low general state of infection. These results allow this mesoregion to be categorized as presenting medium prevalence and low severity of schistosomiasis. The overall positivity rates for the geohelminths, Ascaris lumbricoides, Ancylostomidae, and Trichuris trichiura were, respectively, 30.4, 10.1, and 27.8%; the cumulative positivity was 45.4%. These results allow this mesoregion to be categorized as presenting low prevalence of geohelminthic diseases. The data show some municipalities in Pernambuco with prevalence greater than 20%, while others presented parasite loads greater than 100 epg. These indicators attest to the significant morbidity due to schistosomiasis regarding to the severity of infections established in young populations.

Reliability of current estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence in the Rainforest Zone of the state of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil

The Program for Schistosomiasis Control within the Unified Health System (PCE-SUS) was implemented by 1999 in the Rainforest Zone or "Zona da Mata" of Pernambuco (ZMP) aiming to carry out biennial stool surveys of whole populations through municipal health organs followed by treatment of the positives through the local units of the Family Health Program (PSF). Yearly reports from the Health Department of Pernambuco State (SES/PE) from 2002 to 2004 on the PCE-SUS surveys were assessed to evaluate whether the current estimates of prevalence in the municipalities of the ZMP are based on reliable samples so as to allow considerations on the real situation of schistosomiasis in that area. The surveys carried out in that period did not follow the major principles underlying sampling design, thus posing problems in both precision and validity of the estimates. Only 12 out of 43 municipalities had minimally reliable estimates: five with moderate prevalence (10-50%) and seven with low prevalence (< 10%). Surveys with appropriate sampling procedures aimed either at representative target groups (school-aged children) or communities are recommended for the ZMP and other endemic areas not only to provide reliable information on the current situation of schistosomiasis but also to plan adequate control strategies.

Attaining the minimum target of resolution WHA 54.19 for schistosomiasis control in the Rainforest Zone of the state of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil

Resolution 19 of the 54th World Health Assembly (WHA-54.19) urged member nations to promote preventive measures, ensure treatment and mobilize resources for control of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH). The minimum target is to attend 75% of all school-age children at risk by year 2010. The Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) recommends biennial surveys of whole communities and treatment of the positives through the Schistosomiasis Control Program within the Unified Health System (PCE-SUS). However, by 2004 the PCE-SUS had covered only 8.4% of the 1.2 million residents in the Rainforest Zone of Pernambuco (ZMP). Six of the 43 municipalities still remained unattended. Only three of the municipalities already surveyed reached coverage of 25% or more. At least 154 thousand children in the 7-14 years old range have to be examined (and treated if positive) within the next five years to attend the minimum target of the WHA 54.19 for the ZMP. To make this target feasible, it is suggested that from 2006 to 2010 the PCE-SUS actions should be complemented with school-based diagnosis and treatment, involving health and educational organs as well as community associations to include both children in schools and non-enrolled school-age children.

Beyond the insiders' circle: disseminating the results of adolescent health surveys.

Adolescent health surveys, like those for other segments of the population, tend to remain in the hands of researchers, where they can have no real impact on the way critical health issues are dealt with by policy makers or other professionals directly connected to young people in their everyday work. This paper reviews important issues concerning the dissemination of survey results among professionals from various fields. The content, length and wording of the messages should be tailored to the audience one wants to reach as well as the type of channels used for their diffusion. Survey data sets can be used to select priorities for interventions: ad hoc presentations, attractive summaries and brochures, or even films expressing young peoples' opinions have been used by European public health professionals to make data sets usable in various local, regional and national contexts. CONCLUSION: The impact of these diffusion strategies is, however, difficult to assess and needs to be refined. The adequate delivery of survey findings as well as advocacy and lobbying activities require specific skills which can be endorsed by specialized professionals. Ultimately, it is the researchers' responsibility to ensure that such tasks are effectively performed.

Cooperation in centralised CATI Household Panel Surveys : A Contact-based Multilevel Analysis to Examine Interviewer, Respondent, and Fieldwork Process Effects

In this research, we analyse the contact-specific mean of the final cooperation probability, distinguishing on the one hand between contacts with household reference persons and with other eligible household members, and on the other hand between first and later contacts. Data comes from two Swiss Household Panel surveys. The interviewer-specific variance is higher for first contacts, especially in the case of the reference person. For later contacts with the reference person, the contact-specific variance dominates. This means that interaction effects and situational factors are decisive. The contact number has negative effects on the performance of contacts with the reference person, positive in the case of other persons. Also time elapsed since the previous contact has negative effects in the case of reference persons. The result of the previous contact has strong effects, especially in the case of the reference person. These findings call for a quick completion of the household grid questionnaire, assigning the best interviewers to conducting the first contact. While obtaining refusals has negative effects, obtaining other contact results has only weak effects on the interviewer's subsequent contact outcome. Using the same interviewer for contacts has no positive effects.

Binding of ²³⁹Pu and ⁹⁰Sr to organic colloids in soil solutions: evidence from a field experiment.

Colloidal transport has been shown to enhance the migration of plutonium in groundwater downstream from contaminated sites, but little is known about the adsorption of ⁹⁰Sr and plutonium onto colloids in the soil solution of natural soils. We sampled soil solutions using suction cups, and separated colloids using ultrafiltration to determine the distribution of ²³⁹Pu and ⁹⁰Sr between the truly dissolved fraction and the colloidal fraction of the solutions of three Alpine soils contaminated only by global fallout from the nuclear weapon tests. Plutonium was essentially found in the colloidal fraction (>80%) and probably associated with organic matter. A significant amount of colloidal ⁹⁰Sr was detected in organic-rich soil solutions. Our results suggest that binding to organic colloids in the soil solutions plays a key role with respect to the mobility of plutonium in natural alpine soils and, to a lesser extent, to the mobility of ⁹⁰Sr.

A Note on improving Contact Times in Panel Surveys

With increasing costs for conducting surveys, many survey agencies resort to implementing call strategies. Obtaining contact in panel surveys as early as possible, without annoying people by contacting them at undesired times and ultimately causing them to refuse, requires using efficient call time strategies. In this research, the author uses call data from the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), a centralized Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) survey with a randomized (experimental) call-household assignment. Using random effects models, the author analyzes the efficiency gains of obtaining initial contact by assigning optimal times to first calls, and times and spacing to second and later calls depending on household sociodemography and prior call patterns. The author concludes with some recommendations for making early and successful contact during fieldwork.

Seasonal fluctuations of bacterial community diversity in agricultural soil and experimental validation by laboratory disturbance experiments.

Natural fluctuations in soil microbial communities are poorly documented because of the inherent difficulty to perform a simultaneous analysis of the relative abundances of multiple populations over a long time period. Yet, it is important to understand the magnitudes of community composition variability as a function of natural influences (e.g., temperature, plant growth, or rainfall) because this forms the reference or baseline against which external disturbances (e.g., anthropogenic emissions) can be judged. Second, definition of baseline fluctuations in complex microbial communities may help to understand at which point the systems become unbalanced and cannot return to their original composition. In this paper, we examined the seasonal fluctuations in the bacterial community of an agricultural soil used for regular plant crop production by using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism profiling (T-RFLP) of the amplified 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene diversity. Cluster and statistical analysis of T-RFLP data showed that soil bacterial communities fluctuated very little during the seasons (similarity indices between 0.835 and 0.997) with insignificant variations in 16S rRNA gene richness and diversity indices. Despite overall insignificant fluctuations, between 8 and 30% of all terminal restriction fragments changed their relative intensity in a significant manner among consecutive time samples. To determine the magnitude of community variations induced by external factors, soil samples were subjected to either inoculation with a pure bacterial culture, addition of the herbicide mecoprop, or addition of nutrients. All treatments resulted in statistically measurable changes of T-RFLP profiles of the communities. Addition of nutrients or bacteria plus mecoprop resulted in bacteria composition, which did not return to the original profile within 14 days. We propose that at less than 70% similarity in T-RFLP, the bacterial communities risk to drift apart to inherently different states.

Measuring and Explaining the Increase of Travel Distance : A Multilevel Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sectional Travel Surveys

We want to shed some light on the development of person mobility by analysing the repeated cross-sectional data of the four National Travel Surveys (NTS) that were conducted in Germany since the mid seventies. The above mentioned driving forces operate on different levels of the system that generates the spatial behaviour we observe: Travel demand is derived from the needs and desires of individuals to participate in spatially separated activities. Individuals organise their lives in an interactive process within the context they live in, using given infrastructure. Essential determinants of their demand are the individual's socio-demographic characteristics, but also the opportunities and constraints defined by the household and the environment are relevant for the behaviour which ultimately can be realised. In order to fully capture the context which determines individual behaviour, the (nested) hierarchy of persons within households within spatial settings has to be considered. The data we will use for our analysis contains information on these three levels. With the analysis of this micro-data we attempt to improve our understanding of the afore subsumed macro developments. In addition we will investigate the prediction power of a few classic sociodemographic variables for the daily travel distance of individuals in the four NTS data sets, with a focus on the evolution of this predictive power. The additional task to correctly measure distances travelled by means of the NTS is threatened by the fact that although these surveys measure the same variables, different sampling designs and data collection procedures were used. So the aim of the analysis is also to detect variables whose control corrects for the known measurement error, as a prerequisite to apply appropriate models in order to better understand the development of individual travel behaviour in a multilevel context. This task is complicated by the fact that variables that inform on survey procedures and outcomes are only provided with the data set for 2002 (see Infas and DIW Berlin, 2003).