Which factors drive firm survival within an industry boundary over time?:the UK onshore oil and gas production industry 1984-1999

This thesis looks at the UK onshore oil and gas production industry and follows the history of a population of firms over a fifteen-year period following the industry's renaissance. It examines the linkage between firm survival, selection pressures and adaptation responses at the firm level, especially the role of discretionary adaptation, specifically exploration and exploitation strategies.Taking a Realist approach and using quantitative and qualitative methods for triangulation on a new data base derived from archival data, as well as informant interviews, it tests seven hypotheses' about post-entry survival of firms. The quantitative findings suggest that firm survival within this industry is linked to discretionary adaptation, when measured at the firm level, and to a mixture of selection and adaptation forces when measured for each firm for each individual year. The qualitative research suggests that selection factors dominate. This difference in views is unresolved. However the small, sparse population and the nature of the oil and gas industry compared with other common research contexts such as manufacturing or service firms suggests the results be treated with caution as befits a preliminary investigation. The major findings include limited support for the theory that the external environment is the major determinant of firm survival, though environment components affect firms differentially; resolution of apparent literature differences relating to the sequencing of exploration and exploitation and potential tangible evidence of coevolution. The research also finds that, though selection may be considered important by industry players, discretionary adaptation appears to play the key role, and that the key survival drivers for thispopulation are intra-industry ties, exploitation experience and a learning/experience component. Selection has a place, however, in determining the life-cycle of the firm returning to be a key survival driver at certain ages of the firm inside the industry boundary.

Low severity Fischer-Tropsch synthesis for the production of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels

Currently, the main source for the production of liquid transportation fuels is petroleum, the continued use of which faces many challenges including depleting oil reserves, significant oil price rises, and environmental concerns over global warming which is widely believed to be due to fossil fuel derived CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases. In this respect, lignocellulosic or plant biomass is a particularly interesting resource as it is the only renewable source of organic carbon that can be converted into liquid transportation fuels. The gasification of biomass produces syngas which can then be converted into synthetic liquid hydrocarbon fuels by means of the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. This process has been widely considered as an attractive option for producing clean liquid hydrocarbon fuels from biomass that have been identified as promising alternatives to conventional fossil fuels like diesel and kerosene. The resulting product composition in FT synthesis is influenced by the type of catalyst and the reaction conditions that are used in the process. One of the issues facing this conversion process is the development of a technology that can be scaled down to match the scattered nature of biomass resources, including lower operating pressures, without compromising liquid composition. The primary aims of this work were to experimentally explore FT synthesis at low pressures for the purpose of process down-scaling and cost reduction, and to investigate the potential for obtaining an intermediate FT synthetic crude liquid product that can be integrated into existing refineries under the range of process conditions employed. Two different fixed-bed micro-reactors were used for FT synthesis; a 2cm3 reactor at the University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and a 20cm3 reactor at Aston University. The experimental work firstly involved the selection of a suitable catalyst from three that were available. Secondly, a parameter study was carried out on the 20cm3 reactor using the selected catalyst to investigate the influence of reactor temperature, reactor pressure, space velocity, the H2/CO molar ratio in the feed syngas and catalyst loading on the reaction performance measured as CO conversion, catalyst stability, product distribution, product yields and liquid hydrocarbon product composition. From this parameter study a set of preferred operating conditions was identified for low pressure FT synthesis. The three catalysts were characterized using BET, XRD, TPR and SEM. The catalyst selected was an unpromoted Co/Al2O3 catalyst. FT synthesis runs on the 20cm3 reactor at Aston were conducted for 48 hours. Permanent gases and light hydrocarbons (C1-C5) were analysed in an online GC-TCD/FID at hourly intervals. The liquid hydrocarbons collected were analyzed offline using GC-MS for determination of fuel composition. The parameter study showed that CO conversion and liquid hydrocarbon yields increase with increasing reactor pressure up to around 8 bar, above which the effect of pressure is small. The parameters that had the most significant influence on CO conversion, product selectivity and liquid hydrocarbon yields were reactor temperature and catalyst loading. The preferred reaction conditions identified for this research were: T = 230ºC, P = 10 bar, H2/CO = 2.0, WHSV = 2.2 h-1, and catalyst loading = 2.0g. Operation in the low range of pressures studied resulted in low CO conversions and liquid hydrocarbon yields, indicating that low pressure BTL-FT operation may not be industrially viable as the trade off in lower CO conversions and once-through liquid hydrocarbon product yields has to be carefully weighed against the potential cost savings resulting from process operation at lower pressures.

In vivo and ex vivo regulation of visfatin production by leptin in human and murine adipose tissue: role of mitogen-activated protein kinase and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase signaling pathways

Visfatin is an adipogenic adipokine with increased levels in obesity, properties common to leptin. Thus, leptin may modulate visfatin production in adipose tissue (AT). Therefore, we investigated the effects of leptin on visfatin levels in 3T3-L1 adipocytes and human/murine AT, with or without a leptin antagonist. The potential signaling pathways and mechanisms regulating visfatin production in AT was also studied. Real-time RT-PCR and Western blotting were used to assess the relative mRNA and protein expression of visfatin. ELISA was performed to measure visfatin levels in conditioned media of AT explants, and small interfering RNA technology was used to reduce leptin receptor expression. Leptin significantly (P<0.01) increased visfatin levels in human and murine AT with a maximal response at leptin 10(-9) M, returning to baseline at leptin 10(-7) M. Importantly, ip leptin administration to C57BL/6 ob/ob mice further supported leptin-induced visfatin protein production in omental AT (P<0.05). Additionally, soluble leptin receptor levels rose with concentration dependency to a maximal response at leptin 10(-7) M (P<0.01). The use of a leptin antagonist negated the induction of visfatin and soluble leptin receptor by leptin. Furthermore, leptin-induced visfatin production was significantly decreased in the presence of MAPK and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase inhibitors. Also, when the leptin eceptor gene was knocked down using small interfering RNA, eptin-induced visfatin expression was significantly decreased. Thus, leptin increases visfatin production in AT in vivo and ex vivo via pathways involving MAPK and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase signaling. The pleiotropic effects of leptin may be partially mediated by visfatin.

Decision support for lifecycle planning and risk management of small-scale biomass combined heat and power (bCHP) projects in the UK

Biomass is projected to account for approximately half of the new energy production required to achieve the 2020 primary energy target in the UK. Combined heat and power (CHP) bioenergy systems are not only a highly efficient method of energy conversion, at smaller-scales a significant proportion of the heat produced can be effectively utilised for hot water, space heating or industrial heating purposes. However, there are many barriers to project development and this has greatly inhibited deployment in the UK. Project viability is highly subjective to changes in policy, regulation, the finance market and the low cost incumbent; a high carbon centralised energy system. Unidentified or unmitigated barriers occurring during the project lifecycle may not only negatively impact on the project but could ultimately lead to project failure. The research develops a decision support system (DSS) for small-scale (500 kWe to 10 MWe) biomass combustion CHP project development and risk management in the early stages of a potential project’s lifecycle. By supporting developers in the early stages of project development with financial, scheduling and risk management analysis, the research aims to reduce the barriers identified and streamline decision-making. A fuzzy methodology is also applied throughout the developed DSS to support developers in handling the uncertain or approximate information often held at the early stages of the project lifecycle. The DSS is applied to a case study of a recently failed (2011) small-scale biomass CHP project to demonstrate its applicability and benefits. The application highlights that the proposed development within the case study was not viable. Moreover, further analysis of the possible barriers with the DSS confirmed that some possible modifications to be project could have improved this, such as a possible change of feedstock to a waste or residue, addressing the unnecessary land lease cost or by increasing heat utilisation onsite. This analysis is further supported by a practitioner evaluation survey that confirms the research contribution and objectives are achieved.

Sustainable agricultural production:an investigation in Brazilian semi-arid livestock farms

This paper investigates the environmental sustainability and competitiveness perceptions of small farmers in a region in northern Brazil. The main data collection instruments included a survey questionnaire and an analysis of the region's strategic plan. In total, ninety-nine goat and sheep breeding farmers were surveyed. Data analysis methods included descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and chi-squared tests. The main results relate to the impact of education, land size, and location on the farmers' perceptions of competitiveness and environmental issues. Farmers with longer periods of education have higher perception scores about business competitiveness and environmental sustainability than those with less formal education. Farmers who are working larger land areas also have higher scores than those with smaller farms. Lastly, location can yield factors that impact on farmers' perceptions. In our study, farmers located in Angicos and Lajes had higher perception scores than Pedro Avelino and Afonso Bezerra, despite the geographical proximity of these municipalities. On the other hand, three other profile variables did not impact on farmers' perceptions, namely: family income, dairy production volume, and associative condition. The authors believe the results and insights can be extended to livestock farming in other developing countries and contribute generally to fostering effective sustainable development policies, mainly in the agribusiness sector. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving recombinant human adenosine A2A receptor production in yeast

Over 50% of clinically-marketed drugs target membrane proteins; in particular G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs). GPCRs are vital to living cells, performing an active role in many processes, making them integral to drug development. In nature, GPCRs are not sufficiently abundant for research and their structural integrity is often lost during extraction from cell membranes. The objectives of this thesis were to increase recombinant yield of the GPCR, human adenosine A2A receptor (hA2AR) by investigating bioprocess conditions in large-scale Pichia pastoris and small-scale Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultivations. Extraction of hA2AR from membranes using novel polymers was also investigated. An increased yield of hA2AR from P. pastoris was achieved by investigating the methanol feeding regime. Slow, exponential feed during induction (μlow) was compared to a faster, exponential feed (μhigh) in 35 L pilot-scale bioreactors. Overall hA2AR yields were increased for the μlow cultivation (536.4pmol g-1) compared to the μhigh148.1 pmol g-1. hA2AR levels were maintained in cytotoxic methanol conditions and unexpectedly, pre-induction levels of hA2AR were detected. Small-scale bioreactor work showed that Design of Experiments (DoE) could be applied to screen for bioprocess conditions to give optimal hA2AR yields. Optimal conditions were retrieved for S. cerevisiae using a d-optimal screen and response surface methodology. The conditions were 22°C, pH 6.0, 30% DO without dimethyl sulphoxide. A polynomial equation was generated to predict hA2AR yields if conditions varied. Regarding the extraction, poly (maleic anhydride-styrene) or PMAS was successful in solubilising hA2AR from P. pastoris membranes compared with dodcecyl-β-D-maltoside (DDM) detergent. Variants of PMAS worked well as solubilising agents with either 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DMPC) or cholesteryl hemisuccinate (CHS). Moreover, esterification of PMAS improved solubilisation, suggesting that increased hydrophobicity stabilises hA2AR during extraction. Overall, hA2AR yields were improved in both, P. pastoris and S. cerevisiae and the use of novel polymers for efficient extraction was achieved.

Public sector efficiency, foreign aid and small island development states

This paper examines the efficiency of public sector expenditures and foreign aid at achieving social sector outcomes in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Efficiency is estimated using a Stochastic Production Function (SPF) approach and panel data since 1990. A second stage of the analysis examines the determinants of efficiency. Results indicate that the efficiency of aid and public sectors at improving life expectancy has deteriorated during the 1990s but efficiency at improving school enrolments has increased. Higher levels of governance are associated with higher efficiency. There is also evidence to suggest that efficiency is lower in SIDS, as well as in Sub-Saharan Africa.

An exploratory study of ICT usage in small logistics service providers

Information and communication technology (ICT) developments have strongly affected supply chain management (SCM) in recent years. ICT has had a great impact on all supply chain processes including planning, purchasing, production management, stock management, physical distribution and related integration management. Technology has become an important dimension of third party logistics (3PL) service supply as competitive advantage increasingly depends on the ability to create value for customers through the effective application of ICT. Within this process, while large 3PLs are gaining substantial benefits from technology usage and implementation, the magnitude of changes spurred by ICT dissemination in small logistics service providers remains unclear. This is reflected by the existing gap in literature where the role and competitive developing processes of small 3PLs are seriously underestimated. This gives rise to the need to develop research and investigation in this particular area. The objective of this paper is to narrow the knowledge gap in the field of ICT adoption in small 3PLs through an empirical investigation. It presents the results of a survey on a sample of small Italian 3PLs.

A techno-economic comparison of power production by biomass fast pyrolysis with gasification and combustion

This paper presents an assessment of the technical and economic performance of thermal processes to generate electricity from a wood chip feedstock by combustion, gasification and fast pyrolysis. The scope of the work begins with the delivery of a wood chip feedstock at a conversion plant and ends with the supply of electricity to the grid, incorporating wood chip preparation, thermal conversion, and electricity generation in dual fuel diesel engines. Net generating capacities of 1–20 MWe are evaluated. The techno-economic assessment is achieved through the development of a suite of models that are combined to give cost and performance data for the integrated system. The models include feed pretreatment, combustion, atmospheric and pressure gasification, fast pyrolysis with pyrolysis liquid storage and transport (an optional step in de-coupled systems) and diesel engine or turbine power generation. The models calculate system efficiencies, capital costs and production costs. An identical methodology is applied in the development of all the models so that all of the results are directly comparable. The electricity production costs have been calculated for 10th plant systems, indicating the costs that are achievable in the medium term after the high initial costs associated with novel technologies have reduced. The costs converge at the larger scale with the mean electricity price paid in the EU by a large consumer, and there is therefore potential for fast pyrolysis and diesel engine systems to sell electricity directly to large consumers or for on-site generation. However, competition will be fierce at all capacities since electricity production costs vary only slightly between the four biomass to electricity systems that are evaluated. Systems de-coupling is one way that the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system can distinguish itself from the other conversion technologies. Evaluations in this work show that situations requiring several remote generators are much better served by a large fast pyrolysis plant that supplies fuel to de-coupled diesel engines than by constructing an entire close-coupled system at each generating site. Another advantage of de-coupling is that the fast pyrolysis conversion step and the diesel engine generation step can operate independently, with intermediate storage of the fast pyrolysis liquid fuel, increasing overall reliability. Peak load or seasonal power requirements would also benefit from de-coupling since a small fast pyrolysis plant could operate continuously to produce fuel that is stored for use in the engine on demand. Current electricity production costs for a fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system are 0.091/kWh at 1 MWe when learning effects are included. These systems are handicapped by the typical characteristics of a novel technology: high capital cost, high labour, and low reliability. As such the more established combustion and steam cycle produces lower cost electricity under current conditions. The fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system is a low capital cost option but it also suffers from relatively low system efficiency particularly at high capacities. This low efficiency is the result of a low conversion efficiency of feed energy into the pyrolysis liquid, because of the energy in the char by-product. A sensitivity analysis has highlighted the high impact on electricity production costs of the fast pyrolysis liquids yield. The liquids yield should be set realistically during design, and it should be maintained in practice by careful attention to plant operation and feed quality. Another problem is the high power consumption during feedstock grinding. Efficiencies may be enhanced in ablative fast pyrolysis which can tolerate a chipped feedstock. This has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale. In summary, the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system has great potential to generate electricity at a profit in the long term, and at a lower cost than any other biomass to electricity system at small scale. This future viability can only be achieved through the construction of early plant that could, in the short term, be more expensive than the combustion alternative. Profitability in the short term can best be achieved by exploiting niches in the market place and specific features of fast pyrolysis. These include: •countries or regions with fiscal incentives for renewable energy such as premium electricity prices or capital grants; •locations with high electricity prices so that electricity can be sold direct to large consumers or generated on-site by companies who wish to reduce their consumption from the grid; •waste disposal opportunities where feedstocks can attract a gate fee rather than incur a cost; •the ability to store fast pyrolysis liquids as a buffer against shutdowns or as a fuel for peak-load generating plant; •de-coupling opportunities where a large, single pyrolysis plant supplies fuel to several small and remote generators; •small-scale combined heat and power opportunities; •sales of the excess char, although a market has yet to be established for this by-product; and •potential co-production of speciality chemicals and fuel for power generation in fast pyrolysis systems.

Measuring the impact of innovative human capital on small firms' propensity to innovate

The ability to identify and evaluate the competitive advantage of employees' transferable and innovative characteristics is of importance to firms and policymakers. This research extends the standard measure of human capital by developing a unique and far reaching concept of Innovative Human Capital and emphasises its effect on small firm innovation and hence growth (jobs, sales and productivity). This new Innovative Human Capital concept encapsulates four elements: education, training, willingness to change in the workplace and job satisfaction to overcome the limitations of measurements used previously. An augmented innovation production function is used to test the hypothesis that small firms who employ managers with Innovative Human Capital are more likely to innovate. There is evidence from the results that Innovative Human Capital may be more valuable to small firms (i.e. less than 50 employees) than larger-sized firms (i.e. more than 50 employees). The research expands innovation theory to include the concept of Innovative Human Capital as a competitive advantage and determinant of small firm innovation; and distinguishes Innovative Human Capital as a significant concept to consider when creating public support programmes for small firms.

Toward a scalable and consistent manufacturing process for the production of human MSCs

The development of novel, affordable and efficacious therapeutics will be necessary to ensure the continued progression in the standard of global healthcare. With the potential to address previously unmet patient needs as well as tackling the social and economic effects of chronic and age-related conditions, cell therapies will lead the new generation of healthcare products set to improve health and wealth across the globe. However, if many of the small to medium enterprises (SMEs) engaged in much of the commercialization efforts are to successfully traverse the ‘Valley of Death’ as they progress through clinical trials, there are a number of challenges that must be overcome. No longer do the challenges remain biological but rather a series of engineering and manufacturing issues must also be considered and addressed.

A beszerzés helye és szerepe a Magyarországi kis- és középvállalatoknál (The Role of Purchasing in the Hungarian Small and Medium Enterprises)

A kis- és középvállalkozások (kkv-k) a legtöbb országban, így Magyarországon is kiemelt szerepet töltenek be a gazdaság életében. A velük kapcsolatos kutatások elérkeztek abba a fázisba, amikor például a kisvállalkozás- fejlesztés és az ellátásilánc-menedzsment összekapcsolásával megismerhetjük egy adott vállalati funkció szerepét és helyét a célcsoportban. A szerzők tanulmányukban egy kutatás eredményeit mutatják be, mely egyenrangú módon fókuszál a beszerzési tevékenység és a kkv-k sajátosságaira. A beszerzési aspektusok kiemelésével lehetőség van mélyebben megismerni a kkv-k bizonytalanságának forrásait, a beszállítókkal kapcsolatos igényeik megfogalmazását, a vevők preferenciáit, melyen keresztül általános kép kapható a szállítófejlesztés lehetőségeiről, kifejezetten a beszerzési tevékenység informatikai támogatásáról, továbbá véleményükről a beszerzés mint szolgáltatás kiszervezésével kapcsolatban. A kutatást megalapozó kérdőíves felmérés nemzeti összehasonlításra is lehetőséget ad, valamint segíti egy adott tevékenységre fókuszálva a hazai kis- és középvállalkozások helyzetének bemutatását. ______ Small and medium enterprises (SME) play an important role in the economy of Hungary, just like in most other countries. Studies on SMEs recently have focused on the role of a particular company function in the target group by linking the development of SMEs to new advanced options, such as supply chain management. This paper provides an overview of authors’ ques a questionnaire research focusing on the specific characteristics of both purchasing and SMEs. Focusing on the purchasing aspects enables us to gain a deeper knowledge on the main causes of the instability of SMEs as well as on their expectations regarding suppliers and a better understanding on the preferences of the clients. As a result authors can highlight the main options of developing the supply chain as well as the IT support of purchasing and they can state their opinion on the outsourcing of the purchasing as a service. The questionnaire survey providing the basis for the study enables authors to make international comparisons as well as to present the current state of the Hungarian SMEs focusing on a particular business activity.

Kamatlábak és árszint kis, nyitott gazdaságban = Interest rates and price levels in a small open economy

A tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy a különböző kamatlábaknak milyen hatásai vannak az árszintre, illetve a nominális árakra egy nyitott elsősorban kis, nyitott gazdaságban szabad tőkeáramlás mellett. Míg a zárt gazdaságban csupán a nominális és reálkamatláb megkülönböztetése a lényeges, nyitott gazdaságban a kamatlábak vizsgálatakor meg kell fontolnunk a kamatlábparitás kérdését is. Tisztáznunk kell a reálkamatláb összetevőit, amelyben fontos szerepet kap mind az árfolyam-begyűrűzés (pass-through), mind pedig a kockázati prémium mértéke. A kamatlábhatások vizsgálatakor először azt a mechanizmust elemezzük, amely által a kamatláb befolyásolja a tartós jószágok költségét (explicit vagy implicit bérleti díját). Másodszor az exportszektor termelési döntése és a hazai kamatláb viszonyára vonatkozó mechanizmust vizsgáljuk. Belátjuk, hogy az exportáló szektor döntései függetlenek lehetnek a belföldi kamatlábaktól. Harmadszor bizonyos árazási viselkedéseket tanulmányozunk. Bebizonyítjuk, hogy a kamatláb olyan növelése, ami nem változtat a jelenlegi árfolyamon, árszintnövelő az importőr ország számára. Megfogalmazható az a nézet, hogy ha van is a kamatlábaknak keresleti hatása a zárt gazdaságban, a kis, nyitott gazdaságban ez vélhetőleg sokkal gyengébb. _____ The study examines what effects various interest rates have on the price level and nomi-nal prices in an open (primarily small) economy with free flows of capital. A closed economy calls for a distinction only between nominal and real rates of interest, but in an open economy, questions of interest-rate parity have to be considered as well. It is nec-essary to clarify the factors behind the real interest rate important for price-level pass-through and for the scale of risk premium. Analysis of interest-rate effects begins with the mechanism whereby the interest rate influences the cost of fixed assets (explicit or implicit rents). Secondly, the mechanism behind the relation of export-sector production decisions and domestic interest rates is examined. It emerges that decisions of the export sector are independent of domestic interest rates. Thirdly, certain types of pricing behav-iour are studied. It is shown that a rise in the interest rate that does not alter the present exchange rate is a price-raising factor for the importing country. It can be assumed that if the interest rate has a demand effect in a closed economy, this will presumably be much weaker in a small open economy.

A vállalati logisztikai költségek a magyarországi kis- és középvállalkozások körében végzett felmérés tükrében (Corporate logistics costs of the Hungarian small- and medium-sized enterprises)

A cikk a magyarországi kis- és középvállalkozások logisztikai költségeit vizsgálja a nemzetközi kutatások tükrében és a 2009-es közel kétezer hazai KKV-re kiterjedő „Vállalkozások helyzetének felmérése” alapján. A hazai logisztikai költségeket leginkább a vállalatméret és az ágazat befolyásolja. A magyarországi kis- és középvállalkozások ki nem szervezett szállítási és raktározási tevékenységei a hazai fuvarozóknak és raktárszolgáltatóknak jelentős piacbővülést jelenthetnének. Ez azonban csak látens piacbővülés, mivel a hazai KKV-k nem tervezik, hogy szállítási és raktározási tevékenységeiket nagyobb arányban szervezzék ki. Ez részben azzal magyarázható, hogy a feldolgozóipari, mezőgazdasági és kereskedő kis- és középvállalkozások viszonylag nagy arányban tekintik a logisztikát alapvető képességnek. Nemzetközi viszonylatban a magyarországi KKV-k magas logisztikai költségszintekkel szembesülnek, melynek mérséklésével az adminisztrációs terhek csökkentéséhez hasonló megtakarítást lehetne elérni. ____ This article examines total logistics costs and its components of the Hungarian small- and medium-sized enterprises in the light of international researches. It shows that company-size and its sector are the most important drivers of logistics costs and its components according to „Survey of position of enterprises”, which covered nearly 2000 Hungarian SMEs in 2009. It also proves that transport and warehousing demand of the Hungarian SMEs means a significant market growth for national carriers and warehouse providers. It is only a latent growth, because the Hungarian SMEs do not plan to outsource their transport and warehouse activities in a greater extent. The relative high level of logistics as a core competence among processing industry, agriculture and trade SMEs can be a partial explanation to this. The Hungarian small- and medium-sized enterprises face with high logistics costs in international comparison. Its reduction may bring similar savings as reduction of administrative burdens.

Effects of Temperature–Climate Patterns on the Production of Some Competitive Species on Grounds of Modelling

Climate change has serious effects on the setting up and the operation of natural ecosystems. Small increase in temperature could cause rise in the amount of some species or potential disappearance of others. During our researches, the dispersion of the species and biomass production of a theoretical ecosystem were examined on the effect of the temperature–climate change. The answers of the ecosystems which are given to the climate change could be described by means of global climate modelling and dynamic vegetation models. The examination of the operation of the ecosystems is only possible in huge centres on supercomputers because of the number and the complexity of the calculation. The number of the calculation could be decreased to the level of a PC by considering the temperature and the reproduction during modelling a theoretical ecosystem, and several important theoretical questions could be answered.