Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing

Statistical tests in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are typically based on large-sample approximations, involving the use of asymptotic distributions or bootstrap techniques. After documenting that such methods can be very misleading even with fairly large samples, especially when the number of lags or the number of equations is not small, we propose a general simulation-based technique that allows one to control completely the level of tests in parametric VAR models. In particular, we show that maximized Monte Carlo tests [Dufour (2002)] can provide provably exact tests for such models, whether they are stationary or integrated. Applications to order selection and causality testing are considered as special cases. The technique developed is applied to quarterly and monthly VAR models of the U.S. economy, comprising income, money, interest rates and prices, over the period 1965-1996.

Unfolded singularities of analytic differential equations

La thèse est composée d’un chapitre de préliminaires et de deux articles sur le sujet du déploiement de singularités d’équations différentielles ordinaires analytiques dans le plan complexe. L’article Analytic classification of families of linear differential systems unfolding a resonant irregular singularity traite le problème de l’équivalence analytique de familles paramétriques de systèmes linéaires en dimension 2 qui déploient une singularité résonante générique de rang de Poincaré 1 dont la matrice principale est composée d’un seul bloc de Jordan. La question: quand deux telles familles sontelles équivalentes au moyen d’un changement analytique de coordonnées au voisinage d’une singularité? est complètement résolue et l’espace des modules des classes d’équivalence analytiques est décrit en termes d’un ensemble d’invariants formels et d’un invariant analytique, obtenu à partir de la trace de la monodromie. Des déploiements universels sont donnés pour toutes ces singularités. Dans l’article Confluence of singularities of non-linear differential equations via Borel–Laplace transformations on cherche des solutions bornées de systèmes paramétriques des équations non-linéaires de la variété centre de dimension 1 d’une singularité col-noeud déployée dans une famille de champs vectoriels complexes. En général, un système d’ÉDO analytiques avec une singularité double possède une unique solution formelle divergente au voisinage de la singularité, à laquelle on peut associer des vraies solutions sur certains secteurs dans le plan complexe en utilisant les transformations de Borel–Laplace. L’article montre comment généraliser cette méthode et déployer les solutions sectorielles. On construit des solutions de systèmes paramétriques, avec deux singularités régulières déployant une singularité irrégulière double, qui sont bornées sur des domaines «spirals» attachés aux deux points singuliers, et qui, à la limite, convergent vers une paire de solutions sectorielles couvrant un voisinage de la singularité confluente. La méthode apporte une description unifiée pour toutes les valeurs du paramètre.

Invariant discretizations of partial differential equations

Un algorithme permettant de discrétiser les équations aux dérivées partielles (EDP) tout en préservant leurs symétries de Lie est élaboré. Ceci est rendu possible grâce à l'utilisation de dérivées partielles discrètes se transformant comme les dérivées partielles continues sous l'action de groupes de Lie locaux. Dans les applications, beaucoup d'EDP sont invariantes sous l'action de transformations ponctuelles de Lie de dimension infinie qui font partie de ce que l'on désigne comme des pseudo-groupes de Lie. Afin d'étendre la méthode de discrétisation préservant les symétries à ces équations, une discrétisation des pseudo-groupes est proposée. Cette discrétisation a pour effet de transformer les symétries ponctuelles en symétries généralisées dans l'espace discret. Des schémas invariants sont ensuite créés pour un certain nombre d'EDP. Dans tous les cas, des tests numériques montrent que les schémas invariants approximent mieux leur équivalent continu que les différences finies standard.

Analytical Equations for Compact Dual Frequency Microstrip Antenna

Design equations are presented for calculating the resonance frequencies for a compact dual frequency arrow-shaped microstrip antenna. This provides a fast and simple way to predict the resonant frequencies of the antenna. The antenna is also analyzed using the IE3D simulation package. The theoretical predictions are found to be very close to the IE3D results and thus establish the validity of the design formulae

Simultaneous determination of nonlinear optical and thermo-optic parameters of liquid samples

The authors apply the theory of photothermal lens formation and also that of pure optical nonlinearity to account for the phase modulation in a beam as it traverses a nonlinear medium. It is used to simultaneously determine the nonlinear optical refraction and the thermo-optic coefficient. They demonstrate this technique using some metal phthalocyanines dissolved in dimethyl sulfoxide, irradiated by a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser with 10 Hz repetition rate and a pulse width of 8 ns. The mechanism for reverse saturable absorption in these materials is also discussed.

Design and development of an LED based fiber optic evanescent wave sensor for simultaneous detection of chromium and nitrite traces in water

The design and development of a cost-effective, simple, sensitive and portable LED based fiber optic evanescent wave sensor for simultaneously detecting trace amounts of chromium and nitrite in water are presented. In order to obtain the desired performance, the middle portions of two multimode plastic clad silica fibers are unclad and are used as the sensing elements in the two arms of the sensor. Each of the sensor arms is sourced by separate super bright green LEDs, which are modulated in a time-sharing manner and a single photo detector is employed for detecting these light signals. The performance and characteristics of this system clearly establish the usefulness of the technique for detecting very low concentrations of the dissolved contaminants.

Fluid mechanics-non-linear waves studies on korteweg-de vries equations

In this thesis the author has presented qualitative studies of certain Kdv equations with variable coefficients. The well-known KdV equation is a model for waves propagating on the surface of shallow water of constant depth. This model is considered as fitting into waves reaching the shore. Renewed attempts have led to the derivation of KdV type equations in which the coefficients are not constants. Johnson's equation is one such equation. The researcher has used this model to study the interaction of waves. It has been found that three-wave interaction is possible, there is transfer of energy between the waves and the energy is not conserved during interaction.

Studies on some nonlinear schrodinger type equations describing pulse propagation through optical fibers

The discovery of the soliton is considered to be one of the most significant events of the twentieth century. The term soliton refers to special kinds of waves that can propagate undistorted over long distances and remain unaffected even after collision with each other. Solitons have been studied extensively in many fields of physics. In the context of optical fibers, solitons are not only of fundamental interest but also have potential applications in the field of optical fiber communications. This thesis is devoted to the theoretical study of soliton pulse propagation through single mode optical fibers.

Studies on integrability of some perturbed nonlinear evolution equations

Usually typical dynamical systems are non integrable. But few systems of practical interest are integrable. The soliton concept is a sophisticated mathematical construct based on the integrability of a class ol' nonlinear differential equations. An important feature in the clevelopment. of the theory of solitons and of complete integrability has been the interplay between mathematics and physics. Every integrable system has a lo11g list of special properties that hold for integrable equations and only for them. Actually there is no specific definition for integrability that is suitable for all cases. .There exist several integrable partial clillerential equations( pdes) which can be derived using physically meaningful asymptotic teclmiques from a very large class of pdes. It has been established that many 110nlinear wa.ve equations have solutions of the soliton type and the theory of solitons has found applications in many areas of science. Among these, well-known equations are Korteweg de-Vries(KdV), modified KclV, Nonlinear Schr6dinger(NLS), sine Gordon(SG) etc..These are completely integrable systems. Since a small change in the governing nonlinear prle may cause the destruction of the integrability of the system, it is interesting to study the effect of small perturbations in these equations. This is the motivation of the present work.

Simultaneous Embeddings Of Graphs As Median And Antimedian Subgraphs

The distance DG(v) of a vertex v in an undirected graph G is the sum of the distances between v and all other vertices of G. The set of vertices in G with maximum (minimum) distance is the antimedian (median) set of a graph G. It is proved that for arbitrary graphs G and J and a positive integer r 2, there exists a connected graph H such that G is the antimedian and J the median subgraphs of H, respectively, and that dH(G, J) = r. When both G and J are connected, G and J can in addition be made convex subgraphs of H.

Propyl Gallate Synthesis Using Acidophilic Tannase and Simultaneous Production of Tannase and Gallic Acid by Marine Aspergillus awamori BTMFW032

Marine Aspergillus awamori BTMFW032, recently reported by us, produce acidophilic tannase as extracellular enzyme. Here, we report the application of this enzyme for synthesis of propyl gallate by direct transesterification of tannic acid and in tea cream solubilisation besides the simultaneous production of gallic acid along with tannase under submerged fermentation by this fungus. This acidophilic tannase enabled synthesis of propyl gallate by direct transesterification of tannic acid using propanol as organic reaction media under low water conditions. The identity of the product was confirmed with thin layer chromatography and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. It was noted that 699 U/ml of enzyme could give 60% solubilisation of tea cream within 1 h. Enzyme production medium was optimized adopting Box–Behnken design for simultaneous synthesis of tannase and gallic acid. Process variables including tannic acid, sodium chloride, ferrous sulphate, dipotassium hydrogen phosphate, incubation period and agitation were recognized as the critical factors that influenced tannase and gallic acid production. The model obtained predicted 4,824.61 U/ml of tannase and 136.206 μg/ml gallic acid after 48 h of incubation, whereas optimized medium supported 5,085 U/ml tannase and 372.6 μg/ml of gallic acid production after 36 and 84 h of incubation, respectively, with a 15-fold increase in both enzyme and gallic acid production. Results indicated scope for utilization of this acidophilic tannase for transesterification of tannic acid into propyl gallate, tea cream solubilisation and simultaneous production of gallic acid along with tannase

Artificial boundary conditions for the Stokes and Navier-Stokes equations in domains that are layer-like at infinity

Artificial boundary conditions are presented to approximate solutions to Stokes- and Navier-Stokes problems in domains that are layer-like at infinity. Based on results about existence and asymptotics of the solutions v^infinity, p^infinity to the problems in the unbounded domain Omega the error v^infinity - v^R, p^infinity - p^R is estimated in H^1(Omega_R) and L^2(Omega_R), respectively. Here v^R, p^R are the approximating solutions on the truncated domain Omega_R, the parameter R controls the exhausting of Omega. The artificial boundary conditions involve the Steklov-Poincare operator on a circle together with its inverse and thus turn out to be a combination of local and nonlocal boundary operators. Depending on the asymptotic decay of the data of the problems, in the linear case the error vanishes of order O(R^{-N}), where N can be arbitrarily large.

Orthogonal polynomials and recurrence equations, operator equations and factorization

This article surveys the classical orthogonal polynomial systems of the Hahn class, which are solutions of second-order differential, difference or q-difference equations. Orthogonal families satisfy three-term recurrence equations. Example applications of an algorithm to determine whether a three-term recurrence equation has solutions in the Hahn class - implemented in the computer algebra system Maple - are given. Modifications of these families, in particular associated orthogonal systems, satisfy fourth-order operator equations. A factorization of these equations leads to a solution basis.

Lagrangian approximations and weak solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations

The motion of a viscous incompressible fluid flow in bounded domains with a smooth boundary can be described by the nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations. This description corresponds to the so-called Eulerian approach. We develop a new approximation method for the Navier-Stokes equations in both the stationary and the non-stationary case by a suitable coupling of the Eulerian and the Lagrangian representation of the flow, where the latter is defined by the trajectories of the particles of the fluid. The method leads to a sequence of uniquely determined approximate solutions with a high degree of regularity containing a convergent subsequence with limit function v such that v is a weak solution of the Navier-Stokes equations.