INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Value at Risk in measuring market risk: Historical simulation

In this study the theoretical part was created to make comparison between different Value at Risk models. Based on that comparison one model was chosen to the empirical part which concentrated to find out whether the model is accurate to measure market risk. The purpose of this study was to test if Volatility-weighted Historical Simulation is accurate in measuring market risk and what improvements does it bring to market risk measurement compared to traditional Historical Simulation. Volatility-weighted method by Hull and White (1998) was chosen In order to improve the traditional methods capability to measure market risk. In this study we found out that result based on Historical Simulation are dependent on chosen time period, confidence level and how samples are weighted. The findings of this study are that we cannot say that the chosen method is fully reliable in measuring market risk because back testing results are changing during the time period of this study.

Simulation-based evaluation of susceptibility distortion correction methods in diffusion MRI for connectivity analysis

Connectivity analysis on diffusion MRI data of the whole- brain suffers from distortions caused by the standard echo- planar imaging acquisition strategies. These images show characteristic geometrical deformations and signal destruction that are an important drawback limiting the success of tractography algorithms. Several retrospective correction techniques are readily available. In this work, we use a digital phantom designed for the evaluation of connectivity pipelines. We subject the phantom to a âeurooetheoretically correctâeuro and plausible deformation that resembles the artifact under investigation. We correct data back, with three standard methodologies (namely fieldmap-based, reversed encoding-based, and registration- based). Finally, we rank the methods based on their geometrical accuracy, the dropout compensation, and their impact on the resulting connectivity matrices.

How to report multiple outcome metrics in virtual reality simulation

Background Virtual reality (VR) simulation is increasingly used in surgical disciplines. Since VR simulators measure multiple outcomes, standardized reporting is needed. Methods We present an algorithm for combining multiple VR outcomes into dimension summary measures, which are then integrated into a meaningful total score. We reanalyzed the data of two VR studies applying the algorithm. Results The proposed algorithm was successfully applied to both VR studies. Conclusions The algorithm contributes to standardized and transparent reporting in VR-related research.

An Engineering Solution for using Coarse Meshes in the Simulation of Delamination with Cohesive Zone Models

This paper presents a methodology to determine the parameters used in the simulation of delamination in composite materials using decohesion finite elements. A closed-form expression is developed to define the stiffness of the cohesive layer. A novel procedure that allows the use of coarser meshes of decohesion elements in large-scale computations is proposed. The procedure ensures that the energy dissipated by the fracture process is correctly computed. It is shown that coarse-meshed models defined using the approach proposed here yield the same results as the models with finer meshes normally used in the simulation of fracture processes

Simulation of Delamination Propagation in Composites Under High-Cycle Fatigue by Means of Cohesive-Zone Models

A damage model for the simulation of delamination propagation under high-cycle fatigue loading is proposed. The basis for the formulation is a cohesive law that links fracture and damage mechanics to establish the evolution of the damage variable in terms of the crack growth rate dA/dN. The damage state is obtained as a function of the loading conditions as well as the experimentally-determined coefficients of the Paris Law crack propagation rates for the material. It is shown that by using the constitutive fatigue damage model in a structural analysis, experimental results can be reproduced without the need of additional model-specific curve-fitting parameters

An Interface Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination Under Variable-Mode Ratio in Composite Materials

A thermodynamically consistent damage model for the simulation of progressive delamination under variable mode ratio is presented. The model is formulated in the context of the Damage Mechanics. The constitutive equation that results from the definition of the free energy as a function of a damage variable is used to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A new delamination initiation criterion is developed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation proposed accounts for crack closure effets avoiding interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers aftercomplete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation. The numerical predictions given by the model are compared with experimental results

CFD Simulation of Two-phase and Three-phase Flows in Internal-loop Airlift

Airlift reactors are pneumatically agitated reactors that have been widely used in chemical, petrochemical, and bioprocess industries, such as fermentation and wastewater treatment. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become more popular approach for design, scale-up and performance evaluation of such reactors. In the present work numerical simulations for internal-loop airlift reactors were performed using the transient Eulerian model with CFD package, ANSYS Fluent 12.1. The turbulence in the liquid phase is described using κ- ε the model. Global hydrodynamic parameters like gas holdup, gas velocity and liquid velocity have been investigated for a range of superficial gas velocities, both with 2D and 3D simulations. Moreover, the study of geometry and scale influence on the reactor have been considered. The results suggest that both, geometry and scale have significant effects on the hydrodynamic parameters, which may have substantial effects on the reactor performance. Grid refinement and time-step size effect have been discussed. Numerical calculations with gas-liquid-solid three-phase flow system have been carried out to investigate the effect of solid loading, solid particle size and solid density on the hydrodynamic characteristics of internal loop airlift reactor with different superficial gas velocities. It was observed that averaged gas holdup is significantly decreased with increasing slurry concentration. Simulations show that the riser gas holdup decreases with increase in solid particle diameter. In addition, it was found that the averaged solid holdup increases in the riser section with the increase of solid density. These produced results reveal that CFD have excellent potential to simulate two-phase and three-phase flow system.

Simulation of hydrogen peroxide direct synthesis in a microreactor

A set of models in Aspen plus was built to simulate the direct synthesis process of hydrogen peroxide in a micro-reactor system. This process model can be used to carry out material balance calculation under various experimental conditions. Three thermodynamic property methods were compared by calculating gas solubility and Uniquac-RK method was finally selected for process model. Two different operation modes with corresponding operation conditions were proposed as the starting point of future experiments. Simulations for these two modes were carried out to get the information of material streams. Moreover, some hydrodynamic parameters such as gas/liquid superficial velocity, gas holdup were also calculated with improved process model. These parameters proved the proposed experimental conditions reasonable to some extent. The influence of operation conditions including temperature, pressure and circulation ratio was analyzed for the first operation mode, where pure oxygen was fed into dissolving tank and hydrogen-carbon dioxide mixture was fed into microreactor directly. The preferred operation conditions for the system are low temperature (2°C) and high pressure (30 bar) in dissolving tank. High circulation ratio might be good in the sense that more oxygen could be dissolved and fed into reactor for reactions, but meanwhile hydrodynamics of microreactor should be considered. Furthermore, more operation conditions of reactor gas/liquid feeds in both of two operation modes were proposed to provide guidance for future experiment design and corresponding hydrodynamic parameters were also calculated. Finally, safety issue was considered from thermodynamic point of view and there is no explosion danger at given experimental plan since the released reaction heat will not cause solvent vaporization inside the microchannels. The improvement of process model still needs further study based on the future experimental results.

Adherence and perceptions regarding simulation training in undergraduate health Sciences

BACKGROUND: Simulation techniques are spreading rapidly in medicine. Suc h resources are increasingly concentrated in Simulation Laboratories. The MSRP-USP is structuring such a laboratory and is interested in the prevalence of individual initiatives that could be centralized there. The MSRP-USP currently has five full-curriculum courses in the health sciences: Medicine, Speech Therapy, Physical Therapy, Nutrition, and Occupational Therapy, all consisting of core disciplines. GOAL: To determine the prevalence of simulation techniques in the regular courses at MSRP-USP. METHODS: Coordinators of disciplines in the various courses were interviewed using a specifically designed semi-structured questionnaire, and all the collected data were stored in a dedicated database. The disciplines were grouped according to whether they used (GI) or did not use (GII) simulation resources. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: 256 disciplines were analyzed, of which only 18.3% used simulation techniques, varying according to course: Medicine (24.7.3%), Occupational Therapy (23.0%), Nutrition (15.9%), Physical Therapy (9.8%), and Speech Therapy (9.1%). Computer simulation programs predominated (42.5%) in all five courses. The resources were provided mainly by MSRP-USP (56.3%), with additional funding coming from other sources based on individual initiatives. The same pattern was observed for maintenance. There was great interest in centralizing the resources in the new Simulation Laboratory in order to facilitate maintenance, but there was concern about training and access to the material. CONCLUSIONS: 1) The MSRP-USP simulation resources show low complexity and are mainly limited to computer programs; 2) Use of simulation varies according to course, and is most prevalent in Medicine; 3) Resources are scattered across several locations, and their acquisition and maintenance depend on individual initiatives rather than central coordination or curricular guidelines

Measurement and simulation of solar radiation availability in relation to the growth of coffee plants in an agroforestry system with rubber trees

Solar radiation is an important factor for plant growth, being its availability to understory crops strongly modified by trees in an Agroforestry System (AFS). Coffee trees (Coffea arabica - cv. Obatã IAC 1669-20) were planted at a 3.4 x 0.9 m spacing inside and aside rows of monocrops of 12 year-old rubber trees (Hevea spp.), in Piracicaba-SP, Brazil (22º42'30" S, 47º38'00" W - altitude: 546m). One-year-old coffee plants exposed to 25; 30; 35; 40; 45; 80; 90; 95 and 100% of the total solar radiation were evaluated according to its biophysical parameters of solar radiation interception and capture. The Goudriaan (1977) adapted by Bernardes et al. (1998) model for radiation attenuation fit well to the measured data. Coffee plants tolerate a decrease in solar radiation availability to 50% without undergoing a reduction on growth and LAI, which was approximately 2m².m-2 under this condition. Further reductions on the availability of solar radiation caused a reduction in LAI (1.5m².m-2), thus poor land cover and solar radiation interception, resulting in growth reduction.

Simulation of moisture profiles in a Latossol in Dourados region, in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

The understanding of unsaturated soil water flow at process-level is essential to develop proper management actions for environmental protection in agricultural systems. One important tool for simulation of soil water flow that has been used worldwide is the SWAP model. The aim of this work was to test and to calibrate the SWAP model by inverse modeling to describe moisture profiles in a Brazilian very clayey Latossol in Dourados, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The SWAP model was tested in an experimental field of 0.09 ha cultivated with soybean and soil profiles were sampled eight times between December 2006 and October 2007. The SWAP input values (i.e. soil water retention curves and meteorological data) were based on in-situ measurements. Simulations with uncalibrated soil water retention curves resulted in moisture profiles that were too wet for almost all sampling dates, in particular between 0-10 cm depth. After calibration of soil water retention curves, there was a good improvement in the simulated moisture profiles, which were within the range of measured values for almost all depths and sampling dates.