Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-term experimental data of drying shrinkage of ground granulated blast-furnace slag cement concrete

This paper presents results of laboratory testing of unrestrained drying shrinkage during a period of 154 days of different concrete mixtures from the Brazilian production line that utilize ground granulated blast-furnace slag in their compositions. Three concrete mixtures with water/cement ratio of 0.78(M1), 0.41(M2), and 0.37(M3) were studied. The obtained experimental data were compared with the analytical results from prediction models available in the literature: the ACI 209 model (ACI), the B3 model (B3), the Eurocode 2 model (EC2), the GL 2000 model (GL), and the Brazilian NBR 6118 model (NBR), and an analysis of the efficacy of these models was conducted utilizing these experimental data. In addition, the development of the mechanical properties (compressive strength and modulus of elasticity) of the studied concrete mixtures was also measured in the laboratory until 126 days. From this study, it could be concluded that the ACI and the GL were the models that most approximated the experimental drying shrinkage data measured during the analyzed period of time.

Economic design of an X chart for short-run production

The aim of this paper is to present an economical design of an X chart for a short-run production. The process mean starts equal to mu(0) (in-control, State I) and in a random time it shifts to mu(1) > mu(0) (out-of-control, State II). The monitoring procedure consists of inspecting a single item at every m produced ones. If the measurement of the quality characteristic does not meet the control limits, the process is stopped, adjusted, and additional (r - 1) items are inspected retrospectively. The probabilistic model was developed considering only shifts in the process mean. A direct search technique is applied to find the optimum parameters which minimizes the expected cost function. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Short Note on Transverse Vibrations of a Shaft Carrying Two (or One) Disk Excited by a Nonideal Motor

The paper presents a number of numerical simulations of the transverse vibrations of two (or one) imbalanced rotors forced by an electric motor with limited power supply, during the passage through of the two resonance zones (increasing and decreasing input voltages). The predominant presence of the Sommerfeld effect. when the rotational velocity of the motor is captured, in the second resonance frequency is demonstrated. We have shown that the hysteretic jump phenomenon exists in a rotor system with two (or one) disks, and with this, we have shown that a torque is influenced by the dynamical behavior of die rotor [DOI: 10.1115/1.3007979]

Short communication: An evaluation of the effectiveness of Lactobacillus buchneri 40788 to alter fermentation and improve the aerobic stability of corn silage in farm silos

The objective of this study was to determine if the effects of inoculation with Lactobacillus buchneri 40788 were detectable when applied to whole-plant corn stored in farm silos. Corn silage was randomly sampled from farms in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, and was untreated (n = 15) or treated with an inoculant (n = 16) containing L. buchneri 40788 alone or this organism combined with Pediococcus pentosaceus during May and June 2007. Corn silage that was removed from the silo face during the morning feeding was sampled, vacuum-packed, and heat sealed in polyethylene bags and shipped immediately to the University of Delaware for analyses. Silage samples were analyzed for dry matter (DM), nutrient composition, fermentation end-products, aerobic stability, and microbial populations. The population of L. buchneri in silages was determined using a real-time quantitative PCR method. Aerobic stability was measured as the time after exposure to air that it took for a 2 degrees C increase above an ambient temperature. The DM and concentrations of lactic and acetic acids were 35.6 and 34.5, 4.17 and 4.85, and 2.24 and 2.41%, respectively, for untreated and inoculated silages and were not different between treatments. The concentration of 1,2-propanediol was greater in inoculated silages (1.26 vs. 0.29%). Numbers of lactic acid bacteria determined on selective agar were not different between treatments. However, the numbers of L. buchneri based on measurements using real-time quantitative PCR analysis were greater and averaged 6.46 log cfu-equivalents/g compared with 4.89 log cfu-equivalent for inoculated silages. There were fewer yeasts and aerobic stability was greater in inoculated silages (4.75 log cfu/g and 74 h of stability) than in untreated silages (5.55 log cfu/g and 46 h of stability). This study supports the effectiveness of L. buchneri 40788 on dairy farms.

Short communication: Evaluation of an on-farm test to estimate somatic cell count

The objective of this study was to compare the results of an on-farm test, named Somaticell, with results of electronic cell counting and for milk somatic cell count (SCC) among readers. The Somaticell test correctly determined the SCC in fresh quarter milk samples. Correlation between Somaticell and electronic enumeration of somatic cells was 0.92 and. coefficient 0.82. Using a threshold of 205,000 cells/mL, the sensitivity and specificity for determination of intramammary infections were 91.3 and 96.0%, respectively. The SCC was greater for milk samples from which major mastitis pathogens were recovered. Minor variation among readers was observed and most likely associated with the mixing procedure. However, the final analysis indicated that this variation was not significant and did not affect the amount of samples classified as having subclinical mastitis. The on-farm test evaluated in this study showed adequate capacity of determining SCC on quarter milk samples and may be considered as an alternative for on-farm detection of subclinical mastitis.

Early Effects on T lymphocyte Response to Iron Deficiency in Mice. Short Communication

Iron deficiency is a common nutritional disorder, affecting about 30% of the world population. Deficits in iron functional compartments have suppressive effects on the immune system. Environmental problems, age, and other nutrient deficiencies are some of the situations which make human studies difficult and warrant the use of animal models. This study aimed to investigate alterations in the immune system by inducing iron deficiency and promoting recuperation in a mouse model. Hemoglobin concentration, hematocrit, liver iron store, and flow cytometry analyses of cell-surface transferrin receptor (CD71) on peripheral blood and spleen CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocyte were performed in the control (C) and the iron-deficient (ID) groups of animals at the beginning and end of the experiment. Hematological indices of C and ID mice were not different but the iron stores of ID mice were significantly reduced. Although T cell subsets were not altered, the percentage of T cells expressing CD71 was significantly increased by ID. The results suggest that iron deficiency induced by our experimental model would mimic the early events in the onset of anemia, where thymus atrophy is not enough to influence subset composition of T cells, which can still respond to iron deficiency by upregulating the expression of transferrin receptor.

Short-term spatial diffusion in sigma o+ o- optical molasses

We have measured the spatial diffusion of atoms in a three-dimensional sigma(+)-sigma(-) optical molasses over twenty milliseconds timescale, starting from the initial interaction of the atoms with the molasses. We find that the diffusion constants agree well with a linear model for these short time scales and also compare favourably to other studies of diffusion made over longer time scales. These measurements enable us to quantify the detection method known as freezing molasses. We discuss this method, for detecting and measuring the momentum distribution of cold atoms, which relies on the slow diffusion of atoms in optical molasses to produce a freeze-frame of the spatial distribution of the atoms. This method enables a longer interrogation interval, providing a greatly increased signal-to-noise ratio. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

The effects of prepulse-blink reflex trial repetition and prepulse change on blink reflex modification at short and long lead intervals

Prepulse inhibition and facilitation of the blink reflex are said to reflect different responses elicited by the lead stimulus, transient detection and orienting response respectively. Two experiments investigated the effects of trial repetition and lead stimulus change on blink modification. It was hypothesized that these manipulations will affect orienting and thus blink facilitation to a greater extent than they will affect transient detection and thus blink inhibition. In Experiment 1 (N = 64), subjects were trained with a sequence of 12 lead stimulus and 12 blink stimulus alone presentations, and 24 lead stimulus-blink stimulus pairings. Lead interval was 120 ms for 12 of the trials and 2000 ms for the other 12. For half the subjects this sequence was followed by a change in pitch of the lead stimulus. In Experiment 2 (N = 64), subjects were trained with a sequence of 36 blink alone stimuli and 36 lead stimulus-blink stimulus pairings. The lead interval was 120 ms for half the subjects and 2000 ms for the other half. The pitch of the lead stimulus on prestimulus trials 31-33 was changed for half the subjects in each group. In both experiments, the amount of blink inhibition decreased during training whereas the amount of blink facilitation remained unchanged. Lead stimulus change had no effect on blink modification in either experiment although it resulted in enhanced skin conductance responses and greater heart rate deceleration in Experiment 2. The present results are not consistent with the notion that blink facilitation is linked to orienting whereas blink inhibition reflects a transient detection mechanism. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Vaccine-induced Th1-type responses are dominant over Th2-type responses in the short term whereas pre-existing Th2 responses are dominant in the longer term

The effect of adjuvant on induction of human papillomavirus type 16 E7 protein-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) and immunoglobulin G (IgG)(2a) antibody was studied in C57BL/6 J mice immunized with various adjuvants and E7 protein. Quil-A adjuvant, but not complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA) or Algammulin, induced a T-helper 1 (Th1)-type response to E7, which was characterized by CTL activity against a tumour cell line transfected with E7 protein and by E7-specific IgG(2a). All tested adjuvants elicited comparable levels of E7-specific IgG(1). The longest duration and greatest magnitude of CTL response was seen following two immunizations with the highest dose of E7 and Quil-A. Simultaneous immunization with a Th1 and a T helper 2 (Th2)-promoting adjuvant gave a Th1-type response. However, E7 and Quil-A were unable to induce a Th1-type response (as measured by the inability to generate anti-E7 IgG(2a) antibody) in animals with a pre-existing Th2-type response to E7. These results suggest that saponin adjuvants may be suitable for immunotherapy in humans where a Th1-type response is sought, provided that there is no pre existing Th2-type response to the antigen.

Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Perturbed upper limb movements cause short-latency postural responses in trunk muscles

Addition of a load to a moving upper limb produces a perturbation of the trunk due to transmission of mechanical forces. This experiment investigated the postural response of the trunk muscles in relation to unexpected limb loading. Subjects performed rapid, bilateral shoulder flexion in response to a stimulus. In one third of trials, an unexpected load was added bilaterally to the upper limbs in the first third of the movement. Trunk muscle electromyography, intra-abdominal pressure and upper limb and trunk motion were measured. A short-latency response of the erector spinae and transversus abdominis muscles occurred similar to 50 ms after the onset of the limb perturbation that resulted from addition of the load early in the movement and was coincident with the onset of the observed perturbation at the trunk. The results provide evidence of initiation of a complex postural response of the trunk muscles that is consistent with mediation by afferent input from a site distant to the lumbar spine, which may include afferents of the upper limb.

Prior calcium channel blockade and short-term survival following acute myocardial infarction

There is concern over the safety of calcium channel blockers (CCBs) in acute coronary disease. We sought to determine if patients taking calcium channel blockers (CCBs) at the time of admission with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) had a higher case-fatality compared with those taking beta-blockers or neither medication. Clinical and drug treatment variables at the time of hospital admission predictive of survival at 28 days were examined in a community-based registry of patients aged under 65 years admitted to hospital for suspected AMI in Perth, Australia, between 1984 and 1993. Among 7766 patients, 1291 (16.6%) were taking a CCB and 1259 (16.2%) a betablocker alone at hospital admission. Patients taking CCBs had a worse clinical profile than those taking a beta-blocker alone or neither drug (control group), and a higher unadjusted 28-day mortality (17.6% versus 9.3% and 11.1% respectively, both P < 0.001). There was no significant heterogeneity with respect to mortality between nifedipine, diltiazem, or verapamil when used alone, or with a beta-blocker. After adjustment for factors predictive of death at 28 days, patients taking a CCB were found not to have an excess chance of death compared with the control group (odds ratio [OR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.87, 1.30), whereas those taking a beta-blocker alone had a lower odds of death (OR 0.75, 95% CI; 0.59, 0.94). These results indicate that established calcium channel blockade is not associated with an excess risk of death following AMI once other differences between patients are taken into account, but neither does it have the survival advantage seen with prior beta-blocker therapy.