Major quantitative techniques for risk analysis in the construction industry : a comparative analysis

Risk analysis is one of the critical functions of the risk management process. It relies on a detailed understanding of risks and their possible implications. Construction projects, because of their large and complex nature, are plagued by a variety of risks which must be considered and responded to in order to ensure project success. This study conducts an extensive comparative analysis of major quantitative risk analysis techniques in the construction industry. The techniques discussed and comparatively analyzed in this report include: Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Judgmental Risk Analysis Process (JRAP), Estimating Using Risk Analysis (ERA), Monte Carlo Simulation technique, Computer Aided Simulation for Project Appraisal and Review (CASPAR), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis technique (FMEA) and Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis and Management model (APRAM). The findings highlight the fact that each risk analysis technique addresses risks in any or all of the following areas – schedule risks, budget risks or technical risks. Through comparative analysis, it has been revealed that a majority of risk analysis techniques focus on schedule or budget risks. Very little has been documented in terms of technical risk analysis techniques. In an era where clients are demanding and expecting higher quality projects and finishes, project managers must endeavor to invest time and resources to ensure that the few existing technical risk analysis techniques are developed and further refined, and that new technical risk analysis techniques are developed to suit the current construction industries requirements.

At what age can females consent to sexual activity? A survey of jury-eligible Australians

One suggested reason for the low conviction rates of alleged child sexual abuse offenders relates to the attitudes and beliefs the public hold about such victims; sexual interactions starting at an earlier age; and because the oversexualisation of children and teenagers portrayed in the media may have affected perceptions as to when females are capable ofgiving consent to sexual interactions. A sample of 580 jury-eligible participants completed six implicit questions via an online survey regarding females' capacity to consent. While participants had similar perceptions in response to the type of question asked, there were some differences due to respondent group. When significant differences were observed, women had significantly lower estimates of the age at which female adolescents can make informed decisions about sexual activity than men, as did respondents who had children and were older. Working with children had little impact. The legal implications of these findings are discussed.

How does perceived risk mediate associations between perceived safety and parental restriction of adolescents' physical activity in their neighborhood?

Background
There is evidence that adolescence is a critical period of decline in physical activity. However, adolescents may have limited opportunities to be physically active outdoors if their parents are concerned about neighborhood safety and restrict their adolescent’s physical activity within their neighborhood. Pathways that lead to parental restriction of adolescents’ physical activity (constrained behavior) are under-researched. This study aimed to examine perceived risk as a potential mediator of associations between perceived safety/victimization and constrained behavior.
Methods
Cross-sectional study of adolescents (43% boys) aged 15–17 years (n = 270) in Melbourne, Australia. Parents reported perceived safety (road safety, incivilities and personal safety) and prior victimization in their neighborhood, perceived risk of their children being harmed and whether they constrained their adolescent’s physical activity. Constrained behavior was categorized as ‘avoidance’ or ‘defensive’ behavior depending on a whether physical activity was avoided or modified, respectively, due to perceived risk. MacKinnon’s product-of-coefficients test of mediation was used to assess potential mediating pathways between perceived safety/victimization and constrained behavior.
Results
For girls only, perceived risk was a significant mediator of associations between perceived road safety and avoidance/defensive behavior, and between perceived incivilities, perceived personal safety, victimization and defensive behavior.
Conclusions
Associations between perceived safety/victimization and constrained behavior are complex. Findings may guide the design of interventions that aim to improve actual and perceived levels of safety and reduce perceptions of risk. This is of particular importance for adolescent girls among whom low and declining levels of physical activity have been observed worldwide.

How to integrate the good lives model into treatment programs for sexual offending : an introduction and overview

The good lives model (GLM) represents a new theoretical framework informing sex offender treatment programs; however, substantial variation has been observed in terms of how GLM-related ideas and practices have been applied. Integrated appropriately, the GLM offers potential for improving outcomes of programs following a cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) approach and operating according to a narrow operationalization of risk, need, responsivity (RNR) principles. Conversely, misguided or otherwise poor integration could increase the very risk practitioners work to prevent and manage. The purpose of this article is to provide an introduction and overview on how to integrate the GLM into treatment using CBT and RNR. The authors describe clinical implications of the GLM as they relate to program aims and orientation, assessment and intervention planning, content, and delivery

Demographic differences in public attitudes towards sex offenders

Emotionally fueled public responses to news of released sex offenders have the potential to jeopardize the re-entry process, for example, hindering access to stable housing and employment opportunities. Influencing change in public attitudes towards sex offenders so that they are conducive to successful community re-entry is important in efforts to prevent recidivism. Maximizing the effectiveness of attempts to change public attitudes first requires identifying whether specific demographic groups are more prone to negative attitudes, so that attempts to change attitudes can be appropriately targeted. In the present study, 401 community members completed an online questionnaire designed to assess the affective, cognitive and behavioral dimensions of attitudes towards sex offenders. Differences in attitudes towards sex offenders based on respondent sex, age, educational attainment, occupation, parental status and familiarity with victims and perpetrators of sexual assault were investigated. Females demonstrated more-negative attitudes on affective and behavioral measures compared with males, and respondents with low levels of educational attainment demonstrated more-negative attitudes than respondents with higher levels of educational attainment on cognitive and behavioral measures; however, all groups demonstrated negative attitudes towards sex offenders to some extent. Implications for community-level interventions that promote effective re-entry, and hence reduce the likelihood of sexual reoffending are discussed.

The nocebo effect : a clinicians guide

Objective: This paper aims to provide an overview on the nocebo effect, focusing on recognition — its phenomenology, at-risk demographic profiles, clinical situations and personality factors, as well as discriminating somatic symptoms in the general population from treatment-related adverse effects. Lastly, the paper addresses available evidence-based strategies for management and minimisation of the nocebo effect.

Method: Data for this paper were identified by searching PubMed using the search terms "nocebo" and “nocebo effect”, augmented by a manual search of the references of the key papers and the related literature.

Results: The nocebo effect refers to non-pharmacodynamic, harmful or undesirable effects occurring after inactive treatment, a phenomenon that also occurs in the context of active therapy. Known drivers include classical conditioning and negative expectations concerning treatment. Recent meta-analyses have reported a considerable prevalence, ranging from 18% in the symptomatic treatment of migraine, to more than 74% in multiple sclerosis. Recognition of the nocebo-driven adverse effects presents a challenge, especially because of its non-specific nature and the similarity to the active medication’s expected profile. Traits such as neuroticism, pessimism and type A personalities may predispose individuals to this phenomenon. Clinical management of the nocebo effect includes awareness and recognition, changing the manner of disclosure of potential drug-related adverse effects, shaping patients’ expectations and enhancing the treatment alliance.

Conclusion: The nocebo effect is a common, clinically significant, yet covert driver of clinical outcomes. Increased awareness of its features, as well as knowledge of strategies on how to manage it, are fundamental so that clinicians can mitigate its impact on clinical practice.

Oral language competence, young speakers and the Law

Purpose: This paper highlights the forensic implications of language impairment in 2 key (and overlapping) groups of young people: identified victims of maltreatment (abuse and/or neglect) and young offenders.

Method: Two lines of research pertaining to oral language competence and young people's interface with the law are considered: 1 regarding investigative interviewing with children as victims or witnesses in the context of serious allegations of sexual abuse, and the other pertaining to adolescent offenders as suspects, witnesses, or victims. The linguistic demands that forensic interviewing places on these young people are also considered. Literature concerning the impact of early maltreatment on early language acquisition is briefly reviewed, as is the role of theory of mind in relation to the requirements of investigative interviewing of children and adolescents.

Implications: High-risk young people (i.e., those who are subject to child protection orders because of suspected or confirmed maltreatment, and those who are engaged with the youth justice system) face an elevated risk for suboptimal language development but may need to draw on their language skills in high-stakes forensic interviews. Implications for early intervention policy and practice are identified, and the need for greater speech-language pathology advocacy and engagement in forensic interviewing research is emphasized.

Youth (in)justice : oral language competence in early life and risk for engagement in antisocial behaviour in adolescence

Youth offenders are complex and challenging for policymakers and practitioners alike and face high risks for long-term disadvantage and social marginalisation. In many cases, this marginalisation from the mainstream begins in early life, particularly in the classroom, where they have difficulty both with language/literacy tasks and with the interpersonal demands of the classroom. Underlying both sets of skills is oral language competence—the ability to use and understand spoken language in a range of situations and social exchanges, in order to successfully negotiate the business of everyday life. This paper highlights an emerging field of research that focuses specifically on the oral language skills of high-risk young people. It presents evidence from Australia and overseas that demonstrates that high proportions (some 50% in Australian studies) of young offenders have a clinically significant, but previously undetected, oral language disorder. The evidence presented in this paper raises important questions about how young offenders engage in forensic interviews, whether as suspects, victims or witnesses. The delivery of highly verbally mediated interventions such as counselling and restorative justice conferencing is also considered in the light of emerging international evidence on this topic.

Daily eating frequency and cardiometabolic risk factors in young Australian adults : cross-sectional analyses

Eating frequency may be important in the development of overweight and obesity and other cardiometabolic risk factors; however, the evidence is inconsistent. The aim of the present study was to examine the associations between the number of eating occasions and cardiometabolic risk factors in a national population-based sample of young adults. A cohort of 1273 men and 1502 women, aged 26–36 years, completed a meal pattern chart to record when they had eaten during the previous day (in hourly intervals). The total number of eating occasions was calculated. Diet quality was assessed, waist circumference was measured and a fasting blood sample was taken. Dietary intake was compared with the Australian Guide to Healthy Eating. The associations between the number of eating occasions and cardiometabolic risk factors were calculated using linear regression. Analyses were adjusted for age, education and physical activity. Most men ate three to five times per d and most women ate four to six times. The proportion of participants meeting dietary recommendations increased with the number of eating occasions. For men, an additional eating occasion was associated with reductions in mean values for waist circumference ( − 0·75 cm), fasting glucose ( − 0·02 mmol/l), fasting insulin ( − 0·34 mU/l; 2·04 pmol/l), TAG ( − 0·03 mmol/l), total cholesterol ( − 0·08 mmol/l) and LDL-cholesterol ( − 0·06 mmol/l). Adjustment for waist circumference attenuated the results. Significant trends were not observed for women. In conclusion, a higher number of eating occasions were associated with reduced cardiometabolic risk factors in men. Many associations were mediated by waist circumference.

Prosecutors' perceptions of the utility of 'relationship' evidence in sexual abuse trials

For successful prosecution of sex offences, defined elements that comprise each charge (such as the acts that occurred and offenders’ identities) need to be established beyond reasonable doubt. This study explored the potential benefit (from a prosecution perspective) of eliciting another type of evidence; evidence regarding the relationship between the victim and perpetrator that may explain the victim’s responses.

Fourteen prosecutors representing every major Australian jurisdiction participated in individual interviews or a focus group where they were asked to reflect on the perceived relevance of relationship evidence in sex offence trials, and the potential impact of this evidence on court process and outcomes.

All prosecutors gave strong support for the premise of including relationship evidence in victim and witness statements, as well as in suspect interviews; however, this type of evidence was not routinely being included in interviews or admitted in trials.

The majority of the discussion centred on:

Psychosocial risk factors for coronary heart disease: a consensus statement from the National Heart Foundation of Australia

In 2003, the National Heart Foundation of Australia published a position statement on psychosocial risk factors and coronary heart disease (CHD). This consensus statement provides an updated review of the literature on psychosocial stressors, including chronic stressors (in particular, work stress), acute individual stressors and acute population stressors, to guide health professionals based on current evidence. It complements a separate updated statement on depression and CHD.

Perceived chronic job strain and shift work are associated with a small absolute increased risk of developing CHD, but there is limited evidence regarding their effect on the prognosis of CHD. Evidence regarding a relationship between CHD and job (in)security, job satisfaction, working hours, effort-reward imbalance and job loss is inconclusive.

Expert consensus is that workplace programs aimed at weight loss, exercise and other standard cardiovascular risk factors may have positive outcomes for these risk factors, but no evidence is available regarding the effect of such programs on the development of CHD.

Social isolation after myocardial infarction (MI) is associated with an adverse prognosis. Expert consensus is that although measures to reduce social isolation are likely to produce positive psychosocial effects, it is unclear whether this would also improve CHD outcomes. Acute emotional stress may trigger MI or takotsubo ("stress") cardiomyopathy, but the absolute increase in transient risk from an individual stressor is low. Psychosocial stressors have an impact on CHD, but clinical significance and prevention require further study.

Awareness of the potential for increased cardiovascular risk among populations exposed to natural disasters and other conditions of extreme stress may be useful for emergency services response planning. Wider public access to defibrillators should be available where large populations gather, such as sporting venues and airports, and as part of the response to natural and other disasters.

Assessment of public attitudes towards sex offenders in an Australian population

Public attitudes towards sex offenders are believed to play a key role in the development of legislation and public policy designed to manage the risks posed by known sex offenders who live in the community. There have, however, been few previous attempts to validate methods by which public attitudes can be measured. The current study aims to address this issue by establishing the factor structure of the Community Attitudes Towards Sex Offenders (CATSO) scale with an Australian community sample and examine the extent to which demographic variables and support for sex offender management policies influence these attitudes. A sample of 552 participants recruited through online social media sites completed the CATSO as well as a number of items developed by the researchers designed to assess individuals’ support for specific sex offender policies. Results of an exploratory factor analysis suggested the presence of four distinct factors which were labelled ‘social tendencies’, ‘treatment and punishment’, ‘crime characteristics’ and ‘sexual behaviour’. Individuals with higher levels of educational attainment rated sex offenders less negatively than those with lower educational attainment, while those who reported being supportive of community notification reported more negative attitudes towards sex offenders.

The Supervision of Known Sex Offenders in the Community: Monitoring Progress and Providing Feedback

Case management is the process by which most known sex offenders who live in the community are currently supervised. However, by itself, case management has been shown to have only a modest impact on rates of re-offending, and it is only when case work and/or treatment sessions are introduced, that the benefits become apparent. This paper considers how routinely collecting and feeding back standardized data about client progress towards supervisory goals can be integrated into the offender supervision and case management process. Based on methods that have been shown to be associated with enhanced outcomes in mental health, it is suggested that the implementation of feedback approaches have the potential to both enhance the case management process and improve the effectiveness of those policies which require it.

Excessive alcohol use and its association with risky sexual behaviour: a cross-sectional analysis of data from Victorian secondary school students

Objective
Estimate the prevalence of sexual behaviour and alcohol use and examine the association between excessive alcohol use and risky sexual behaviour in late secondary students in Victoria, Australia.

Method
The sample of Year 11 students from government and independent schools participating in the 2008 International Youth Development Study (n=450) was representative of the Victorian school population. Logistic regression analyses examined the associations between sexual behaviour, binge and compulsive drinking, adjusting for socio-demographic, school and family factors.

Results
Under half (44%) the students had experienced sex in the past year, half (50%) had engaged in binge drinking in the past two weeks and 26% reported compulsive drinking in the past year. Of those who reported sex in the past year (n=197), 34% had sex without a condom at the last sexual encounter and 28% later regretted sex due to alcohol. The likelihood of experiencing sex was increased by binge (OR=2.44, 95%CI 1.44-4.12) and compulsive drinking (OR=2.15, 95%CI 1.29-3.60). For those sexually active, binge drinking increased the risk of having three or more sexual partners (OR=3.37, 95%CI 1.11-10.26) and compulsive drinking increased the likelihood of regretted sex due to alcohol (OR=4.43, 95%CI 2.10-9.31). Excessive drinking was not associated with condom non-use.

Conclusion and implications
Risky sex – multiple sexual partners and regretted sex due to alcohol – and excessive drinking are highly prevalent and co-associated among Victorian late secondary students.