Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Structural aspects of semantic-directed clusters

Knowledge-based clusters are studied from the structural point of view. Generalized descriptions for such clusters are stated and illustrated. Peculiarities of certain knowledge-based cluster configurations are highlighted. The adequacy of the connectives logical and (“and”) logical or (“exclusive-or”) in describing such clusters is justified. The definition of “concept” is elaborated from the clustering point of view and used to establish the equivalence between, descriptions of clusters and concepts. The order-independence of semantic-directed clustering approach is established formally based on axiomatic considerations.

Modeling Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Asset Pricing

Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.

Examining and Modeling the Dynamics of the Volatility Surface

The objective of this paper is to investigate and model the characteristics of the prevailing volatility smiles and surfaces on the DAX- and ESX-index options markets. Continuing on the trend of Implied Volatility Functions, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model is introduced and fitted to historical data. The model replaces the constant volatility parameter of the Black & Scholes pricing model with a matrix of volatilities with respect to moneyness and maturity and is tested out-of-sample. Considering the dynamics, the results show support for the hypotheses put forward in this study, implying that the smile increases in magnitude when maturity and ATM volatility decreases and that there is a negative/positive correlation between a change in the underlying asset/time to maturity and implied ATM volatility. Further, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model indicates an improvement to pricing accuracy compared to previous Implied Volatility Function models, however indicating that the parameters of the models are to be re-estimated continuously for the models to fully capture the changing dynamics of the volatility smiles.

Protein sequence design on the basis of topology optimization techniques -Using continuous modeling of discrete amino acid types

The notion of optimization is inherent in protein design. A long linear chain of twenty types of amino acid residues are known to fold to a 3-D conformation that minimizes the combined inter-residue energy interactions. There are two distinct protein design problems, viz. predicting the folded structure from a given sequence of amino acid monomers (folding problem) and determining a sequence for a given folded structure (inverse folding problem). These two problems have much similarity to engineering structural analysis and structural optimization problems respectively. In the folding problem, a protein chain with a given sequence folds to a conformation, called a native state, which has a unique global minimum energy value when compared to all other unfolded conformations. This involves a search in the conformation space. This is somewhat akin to the principle of minimum potential energy that determines the deformed static equilibrium configuration of an elastic structure of given topology, shape, and size that is subjected to certain boundary conditions. In the inverse-folding problem, one has to design a sequence with some objectives (having a specific feature of the folded structure, docking with another protein, etc.) and constraints (sequence being fixed in some portion, a particular composition of amino acid types, etc.) while obtaining a sequence that would fold to the desired conformation satisfying the criteria of folding. This requires a search in the sequence space. This is similar to structural optimization in the design-variable space wherein a certain feature of structural response is optimized subject to some constraints while satisfying the governing static or dynamic equilibrium equations. Based on this similarity, in this work we apply the topology optimization methods to protein design, discuss modeling issues and present some initial results.

Synthesis, X-ray structure and catalytic properties of a copper(II) Schiff base complex modeling the activity of the Cu-B site of dopamine beta-hydroxylase

The copper(II) complex [Cu(salgly) (bpy)] . 4H(2)O (1), where salgly is a tridentate glycinatosalicylaldimine Schiffbase Ligand, is prepared and structurally characterized. The complex is found to be catalytically active in the oxidation of ascorbic acid by dioxygen and the process is also effective in the presence of benzylamine giving benzaldehyde as a product, thus modeling the activity of the Cu-B site of dopamine beta-hydroxylase. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Modeling server-unreliability in closed queuing-networks

A method is presented to model server unreliability in closed queuing networks. Breakdowns and repairs of servers, assumed to be time-dependent, are modeled using virtual customers and virtual servers in the system. The problem is thus converted into a closed queue with all reliable servers and preemptive resume priority centers. Several recent preemptive priority approximations and an approximation of the one proposed are used in the analysis. This method has approximately the same computational requirements as that of mean-value analysis for a network of identical dimensions and is therefore very efficient

Chemicals risk modeling : toxic effect risks imposed on aquatic organisms by industrial activity

Yhteenveto: Kemikaalien teollisesta käsittelystä vesieliöille aiheutuvien riskien arviointi mallin avulla.

Modeling of the sea surface for daylight imagery studies

Plastic-coated paper is shown to possess reflectivity characteristics quite similar to those of the surface of water. This correspondence has been used with a conversion factor to model a sea surface by means of plastic-coated paper. Such a paper model is then suitably illuminated and photographed, yielding physically simulated daylight imagery of the sea surface under controlled conditions. A simple example of sinusoidal surface simulation is described.