Load Profile Analysis Tool for Electrical Appliances in Households Assisted by CPS

This paper presents a methodology to forecast the hourly and daily consumption in households assisted by cyber physical systems. The methodology was validated using a database of consumption of a set of 93 domestic consumers. Forecast tools used were based on Fast Fourier Series and Generalized Reduced Gradient. Both tools were tested and their forecast results were compared. The paper shows that both tools allow obtaining satisfactory results for energy consumption forecasting.

Study of Atlantic chub mackerel's (Scomber colias, Gmelin, 1789) landings evolution in Portugal: importance for purse seine fleet

The Portuguese purse seine fishery could be sustainable if measures to promote multi-specify catches are placed. Chub mackerel is one of the top three species landed by purse seine and landings have been increasing, which could be partly explained by Docapesca’s campaign promoting chub mackerel consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to understand if chub mackerel could represent a sustainable alternative. Results point to overexploitation levels, already exceeding estimated Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). The break point was registered in 2011, when chub mackerel landings surpassed 30 thousand tonnes landed, which is far beyond MSY estimates by Schaefer’s (24 703 ton), Gulland’s (21 750 ton) and Cadima’s (23 250 ton) models. Chub mackerel could represent an alternative to purse seine fisheries if: (i) a catch limit is established; (ii) measures to promote a regulated market on supply and demand laws are placed; (iii) research investment is augmented; Estudo da evolução dos desembarques de cavala (Scomber colias, Gmelin, 1782) em Portugal: sua importância para a pesca de cerco. Resumo: A pesca de cerco em Portugal poderá ser sustentável se forem implementadas medidas para a sua diversificação. A cavala é uma das três espécies mais capturadas pelo cerco, tendo-se observado um aumento dos desembarques nos últimos anos, parte explicado pela campanha focada no seu consumo, promovida pela Docapesa. Torna-se necessário compreender se a cavala poderá constituir uma alternativa sustentável. Os resultados apontam para níveis de exploração acima do Rendimento Máximo Sustentável (RMS) estimado, atingido em 2011, quando os desembarques de cavala ultrapassaram as 30 mil toneladas, acima do RMS estimado de acordo com Schaefer (24 703 ton), Gulland (21 750 ton) e Cadima (23 250 ton), mantendo-se a tendência de sobre-exploração. A cavala poderá ser uma alternativa para o cerco se: (i) estabelecido um limite de captura; (ii) criadas medidas de promoção de um mercado regulado pela lei da oferta e da procura (iii) aumentar o investimento em investigação.

Revisiting compressed air energy storage.

The use of renewable energies as a response to the EU targets defined for 2030 Climate Change and Energy has been increasing. Also non-dispatchable and intermittent renewable energies like wind and solar cannot generally match supply and demand, which can also cause some problems in the grid. So, the increased interest in energy storage has evolved and there is nowadays an urgent need for larger energy storage capacity. Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) is a proven technology for storing large quantities of electrical energy in the form of high-pressure air for later use when electricity is needed. It exists since the 1970’s and is one of the few energy storage technologies suitable for long duration (tens of hours) and utility scale (hundreds to thousands of MW) applications. It is also one of the most cost-effective solutions for large to small scale storage applications. Compressed Air Energy Storage can be integrated and bring advantages to different levels of the electric system, from the Generation level, to the Transmission and Distribution levels, so in this paper a revisit of CAES is done in order to better understand what and how it can be used for our modern needs of energy storage.

PROPUESTA DE ZONIFICACIÓN TURÍSTICA COMO MODELO DE PLANIFICACIÓN TERRITORIAL PARA COMUNIDADES DEL GOLFO DE NICOYA

El proyecto “Diseño de productos y rutas turísticas alternativas para el mejoramiento del nivel de vida de las comunidades locales: el caso del Golfo de Nicoya” tiene como propósitos: la elaboración de un diagnóstico del sistema turístico de las comunidades involucradas, la evaluación del potencial turístico de los recursos y atractivos identificados en las comunidades, el diseño de productos y rutas turísticas, y la realización de una zonificación turística en las áreas de estudio. El presente artículo se centra en la zonificación turística de las comunidades metas, debido a que las variables anteriormente mencionadas son la base para su elaboración. La zonificación toma en cuenta los aspectos que condicionan los procesos de transformación y articulación del turismo en el territorio, desde el papel de los recursos naturales para la implantación turística y la influencia de la estructura territorial y socioeconómica sobre la que se organiza el turismo. Esta permite un mejor análisis del espacio geográfico y diseño de propuestas de desarrollo. En este caso, se identifican elementos homogeneizadores del espacio turístico a partir del diagnóstico de las comunidades, entre ellos se encuentran: la geomorfología, uso del suelo, tipología de recurso y atractivo turístico, la oferta y la demanda turística, entre otros. ABSTRACT The purpose of the project, “Design of Products and Tourist Route Alternatives for Improving the Standard of Living of Local Communities: The Case of the Gulf of Nicoya”, is to diagnose the system of tourism in the communities involved, evaluate the tourist potential of the resources and attractions of the communities, design products and tour routes, and establish tourist zones in the areas of study. This article focuses on the community goals of the tourist zones since the above-mentioned variables are the basis for their development. The zoning takes into account the aspects that condition the process of transforming an area into a tourist zone, from the role natural resources play in establishing tourism to the influence of socioeconomic and territorial structures. This allows a better analysis of the geographic space and design of development proposals. In this case, homogenous elements of the tourist space are identified from diagnosis of the communities, including the geomorphology, land use, typology of resource and tourist attractions, tourist supply and demand and other factors.

Decentralized demand-supply matching using community microgrids and consumer demand response: A scenario analysis

Developing countries constantly face the challenge of reliably matching electricity supply to increasing consumer demand. The traditional policy decisions of increasing supply and reducing demand centrally, by building new power plants and/or load shedding, have been insufficient. Locally installed microgrids along with consumer demand response can be suitable decentralized options to augment the centralized grid based systems and plug the demand-supply gap. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) develop a framework to identify the appropriate decentralized energy options for demand supply matching within a community, and, (2) determine which of these options can suitably plug the existing demand-supply gap at varying levels of grid unavailability. A scenario analysis framework is developed to identify and assess the impact of different decentralized energy options at a community level and demonstrated for a typical urban residential community Vijayanagar, Bangalore in India. A combination of LPG based CHP microgrid and proactive demand response by the community is the appropriate option that enables the Vijayanagar community to meet its energy needs 24/7 in a reliable, cost-effective manner. The paper concludes with an enumeration of the barriers and feasible strategies for the implementation of community microgrids in India based on stakeholder inputs. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving supply chain performance: Real-time demand information and flexible deliveries

In some supply chains, materials are ordered periodically according to local information. This paper investigates how to improve the performance of such a supply chain. Specifically, we consider a serial inventory system in which each stage implements a local reorder interval policy; i.e., each stage orders up to a local basestock level according to a fixed-interval schedule. A fixed cost is incurred for placing an order. Two improvement strategies are considered: (1) expanding the information flow by acquiring real-time demand information and (2) accelerating the material flow via flexible deliveries. The first strategy leads to a reorder interval policy with full information; the second strategy leads to a reorder point policy with local information. Both policies have been studied in the literature. Thus, to assess the benefit of these strategies, we analyze the local reorder interval policy. We develop a bottom-up recursion to evaluate the system cost and provide a method to obtain the optimal policy. A numerical study shows the following: Increasing the flexibility of deliveries lowers costs more than does expanding information flow; the fixed order costs and the system lead times are key drivers that determine the effectiveness of these improvement strategies. In addition, we find that using optimal batch sizes in the reorder point policy and demand rate to infer reorder intervals may lead to significant cost inefficiency. © 2010 INFORMS.

Resilience of water supply systems in meeting the challenges posed by climate change and population growth

This research project provides a scientifically robust approach for assessing the resilience of water supply systems, which are critical infrastructure, to impacts of climate change and population growth. An approach for the identification of trigger points that allows timely and appropriate management actions to be taken to avoid catastrophic system failure is an important outcome of this project. In the current absence of a formal method to evaluate the resilience of a water supply system, the approach developed in this study was based on the characterisation of resilience of a water supply system to a range of surrogate measures. Accordingly, a set of indicators are proposed to evaluate system behaviour and logistic regression analysis was used to assess system behaviour under predicted rainfall, storage and demand conditions.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Adoption of environmental assurance in pastoral industry supply chains - Market failure and beyond

This paper describes adoption rates of environmental assurance within meat and wool supply chains, and discusses this in terms of market interest and demand for certified 'environmentally friendly' products, based on phone surveys and personal interviews with pastoral producers, meat and wool processors, wholesalers and retailers, and domestic consumers. Members of meat and wool supply chains, particularly pastoral producers, are both aware of and interested in implementing various forms of environmental assurance, but significant costs combined with few private benefits have resulted in low adoption rates. The main reason for the lack of benefits is that the end user (the consumer) does not value environmental assurance and is not willing to pay for it. For this reason, global food and fibre supply chains, which compete to supply consumers with safe and quality food at the lowest price, resist public pressure to implement environmental assurance. This market failure is further exacerbated by highly variable environmental and social production standards required of primary producers in different countries, and the disparate levels of government support provided to them. Given that it is the Australian general public and not markets that demand environmental benefits from agriculture, the Australian government has a mandate to use public funds to counter this market failure. A national farm environmental policy should utilise a range of financial incentives to reward farmers for delivering general public good environmental outcomes, with these specified and verified through a national environmental assurance scheme.

Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Singapore's population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early planning is essential. This paper forecasts workforce and training requirements for Singapore up to the year 2040 under several plausible future scenarios. METHODS: The Singapore Eye Care Workforce Model was created as a continuous time compartment model with explicit workforce stocks using system dynamics. The model has three modules: prevalence of eye disease, demand, and workforce requirements. The model is used to simulate the prevalence of eye diseases, patient visits, and workforce requirements for the public sector under different scenarios in order to determine training requirements. RESULTS: Four scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline business-as-usual scenario, the required number of ophthalmologists is projected to increase by 117% from 2015 to 2040. Under the current policy scenario (assuming an increase of service uptake due to increased awareness, availability, and accessibility of eye care services), the increase will be 175%, while under the new model of care scenario (considering the additional effect of providing some services by non-ophthalmologists) the increase will only be 150%. The moderated workload scenario (assuming in addition a reduction of the clinical workload) projects an increase in the required number of ophthalmologists of 192% by 2040. Considering the uncertainties in the projected demand for eye care services, under the business-as-usual scenario, a residency intake of 8-22 residents per year is required, 17-21 under the current policy scenario, 14-18 under the new model of care scenario, and, under the moderated workload scenario, an intake of 18-23 residents per year is required. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that under all scenarios considered, Singapore's aging and growing population will result in an almost doubling of the number of Singaporeans with eye conditions, a significant increase in public sector eye care demand and, consequently, a greater requirement for ophthalmologists.

The impact on housing supply in England of planning delay and uncertainty

The time taken to consider development proposals within the English planning system continues to provoke great policy concern despite a decade of inquiry and policy change. The results of an extensive site-based survey and hedonic modelling exercise across 45 local authorities are reported here. The analysis reveals a slow, uncertain system. It identifies planning delay as a serious problem for housing supply and its ability to respond to increases in demand. Only a relatively limited set of factors seem relevant in explaining differences in times and the results suggest that 80% of councils’ performances are statistically indistinguishable from each other. These findings question the policy emphasis put on rankings of local authorities, though some influence from local politics is apparent. Development control is consistently a lengthy and uncertain process due to its complexity. Therefore, success in lowering planning delay is only likely through radical simplification.

Optimized Water Demand Management Through Intelligent Sensing And Analytics: The WISDOM Approach

New business and technology platforms are required to sustainably manage urban water resources [1,2]. However, any proposed solutions must be cognisant of security, privacy and other factors that may inhibit adoption and hence impact. The FP7 WISDOM project (funded by the European Commission - GA 619795) aims to achieve a step change in water and energy savings via the integration of innovative Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) frameworks to optimize water distribution networks and to enable change in consumer behavior through innovative demand management and adaptive pricing schemes [1,2,3]. The WISDOM concept centres on the integration of water distribution, sensor monitoring and communication systems coupled with semantic modelling (using ontologies, potentially connected to BIM, to serve as intelligent linkages throughout the entire framework) and control capabilities to provide for near real-time management of urban water resources. Fundamental to this framework are the needs and operational requirements of users and stakeholders at domestic, corporate and city levels and this requires the interoperability of a number of demand and operational models, fed with data from diverse sources such as sensor networks and crowsourced information. This has implications regarding the provenance and trustworthiness of such data and how it can be used in not only the understanding of system and user behaviours, but more importantly in the real-time control of such systems. Adaptive and intelligent analytics will be used to produce decision support systems that will drive the ability to increase the variability of both supply and consumption [3]. This in turn paves the way for adaptive pricing incentives and a greater understanding of the water-energy nexus. This integration is complex and uncertain yet being typical of a cyber-physical system, and its relevance transcends the water resource management domain. The WISDOM framework will be modeled and simulated with initial testing at an experimental facility in France (AQUASIM – a full-scale test-bed facility to study sustainable water management), then deployed and evaluated in in two pilots in Cardiff (UK) and La Spezia (Italy). These demonstrators will evaluate the integrated concept providing insight for wider adoption.

A diagnostic framework for demand amplification problems in supply chains

This dissertation delivers a framework to diagnose the Bull-Whip Effect (BWE) in supply chains and then identify methods to minimize it. Such a framework is needed because in spite of the significant amount of literature discussing the bull-whip effect, many companies continue to experience the wide variations in demand that are indicative of the bull-whip effect. While the theory and knowledge of the bull-whip effect is well established, there still is the lack of an engineering framework and method to systematically identify the problem, diagnose its causes, and identify remedies. ^ The present work seeks to fill this gap by providing a holistic, systems perspective to bull-whip identification and diagnosis. The framework employs the SCOR reference model to examine the supply chain processes with a baseline measure of demand amplification. Then, research of the supply chain structural and behavioral features is conducted by means of the system dynamics modeling method. ^ The contribution of the diagnostic framework, is called Demand Amplification Protocol (DAMP), relies not only on the improvement of existent methods but also contributes with original developments introduced to accomplish successful diagnosis. DAMP contributes a comprehensive methodology that captures the dynamic complexities of supply chain processes. The method also contributes a BWE measurement method that is suitable for actual supply chains because of its low data requirements, and introduces a BWE scorecard for relating established causes to a central BWE metric. In addition, the dissertation makes a methodological contribution to the analysis of system dynamic models with a technique for statistical screening called SS-Opt, which determines the inputs with the greatest impact on the bull-whip effect by means of perturbation analysis and subsequent multivariate optimization. The dissertation describes the implementation of the DAMP framework in an actual case study that exposes the approach, analysis, results and conclusions. The case study suggests a balanced solution between costs and demand amplification can better serve both firms and supply chain interests. Insights pinpoint to supplier network redesign, postponement in manufacturing operations and collaborative forecasting agreements with main distributors.^

Modulation of dermal microvascular endithelial cell responses to growth factors and haemostatic factors in the presence of vitronectin

In order to effect permanent closure in burns patients suffering from full thickness wounds, replacing their skin via split thickness autografting, is essential. Dermal substitutes in conjunction with widely meshed split thickness autografts (+/- cultured keratinocytes) reduce scarring at the donor and recipient sites of burns patients by reducing demand for autologous skin (both surface area and thickness), without compromising dermal delivery at the wound face. Tissue engineered products such as Integra consist of a dermal template which is rapidly remodelled to form a neodermis, at which time the temporary silicone outer layer is removed and replaced with autologous split thickness skin. Whilst provision of a thick tissue engineered dermis at full thickness burn sites reduces scarring, it is hampered by delays in vascularisation which results in clinical failure. The ultimate success of any skin graft product is dependent upon a number of basic factors including adherence, haemostasis and in the case of viable tissue grafts, success is ultimately dependent upon restoration of a normal blood supply, and hence this study. Ultimately, the goal of this research is to improve the therapeutic properties of tissue replacements, through impregnation with growth factors aimed at stimulating migration and proliferation of microvascular endothelial cells into the donor tissue post grafting. For the purpose of my masters, the aim was to evaluate the responsiveness of a dermal microvascular endothelial cell line to growth factors and haemostatic factors, in the presence of the glycoprotein vitronectin. Vitronectin formed the backbone for my hypothesis and research due to its association with both epithelial and, more specifically, endothelial migration and proliferation. Early work using a platform technology referred to as VitroGro (Tissue Therapies Ltd), which is comprised of vitronectin bound BP5/IGF-1, aided keratinocyte proliferation. I hypothesised that this result would translate to another epithelium - endothelium. VitroGro had no effect on endothelial proliferation or migration. Vitronectin increases the presence of Fibroblast Growth Factor (FGF) and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) receptors, enhancing cell responsiveness to their respective ligands. So, although Human Microvascular Endothelial Cell line 1 (HMEC-1) VEGF receptor expression is generally low, it was hypothesised that exposure to vitronectin would up-regulate this receptor. HMEC-1 migration, but not proliferation, was enhanced by vitronectin bound VEGF, as well as vitronectin bound Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF), both of which could be used to stimulate microvascular endothelial cell migration for the purpose of transplantation. In addition to vitronectin's synergy with various growth factors, it has also been shown to play a role in haemostasis. Vitronectin binds thrombin-antithrombin III (TAT) to form a trimeric complex that takes on many of the attributes of vitronectin, such as heparin affinity, which results in its adherence to endothelium via heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSP), followed by unaltered transcytosis through the endothelium, and ultimately its removal from the circulation. This has been documented as a mechanism designed to remove thrombin from the circulation. Equally, it could be argued that it is a mechanism for delivering vitronectin to the matrix. My results show that matrix-bound vitronectin dramatically alters the effect that conformationally altered antithrombin three (cATIII) has on proliferation of microvascular endothelial cells. cATIII stimulates HMEC-1 proliferation in the presence of matrix-bound vitronectin, as opposed to inhibiting proliferation in its absence. Binding vitronectin to tissues and organs prior to transplant, in the presence of cATIII, will have a profound effect on microvascular infiltration of the graft, by preventing occlusion of existing vessels whilst stimulating migration and proliferation of endothelium within the tissue.

Implementation of a better choice healthy food and drink supply strategy for staff and visitors in government owned health facilities in Queensland, Australia

Objective The present paper reports on a quality improvement activity examining implementation of A Better Choice Healthy Food and Drink Supply Strategy for Queensland Health Facilities (A Better Choice). A Better Choice is a policy to increase supply and promotion of healthy foods and drinks and decrease supply and promotion of energy-dense, nutrient-poor choices in all food supply areas including food outlets, staff dining rooms, vending machines, tea trolleys, coffee carts, leased premises, catering, fundraising, promotion and advertising. Design An online survey targeted 278 facility managers to collect self-reported quantitative and qualitative data. Telephone interviews were sought concurrently with the twenty-five A Better Choice district contact officers to gather qualitative information. Setting Public sector-owned and -operated health facilities in Queensland, Australia. Subjects One hundred and thirty-four facility managers and twenty-four district contact officers participated with response rates of 48·2 % and 96·0 %, respectively. Results Of facility managers, 78·4 % reported implementation of more than half of the A Better Choice requirements including 24·6 % who reported full strategy implementation. Reported implementation was highest in food outlets, staff dining rooms, tea trolleys, coffee carts, internal catering and drink vending machines. Reported implementation was more problematic in snack vending machines, external catering, leased premises and fundraising. Conclusions Despite methodological challenges, the study suggests that policy approaches to improve the food and drink supply can be implemented successfully in public-sector health facilities, although results can be limited in some areas. A Better Choice may provide a model for improving food supply in other health and workplace settings.