TIME LAPSE SEISMIC OBSERVATIONS AND EFFECTS OF RESERVOIR COMPRESSIBILITY AT TEAL SOUTH OIL FIELD

One of the original ocean-bottom time-lapse seismic studies was performed at the Teal South oil field in the Gulf of Mexico during the late 1990’s. This work reexamines some aspects of previous work using modern analysis techniques to provide improved quantitative interpretations. Using three-dimensional volume visualization of legacy data and the two phases of post-production time-lapse data, I provide additional insight into the fluid migration pathways and the pressure communication between different reservoirs, separated by faults. This work supports a conclusion from previous studies that production from one reservoir caused regional pressure decline that in turn resulted in liberation of gas from multiple surrounding unproduced reservoirs. I also provide an explanation for unusual time-lapse changes in amplitude-versus-offset (AVO) data related to the compaction of the producing reservoir which, in turn, changed an isotropic medium to an anisotropic medium. In the first part of this work, I examine regional changes in seismic response due to the production of oil and gas from one reservoir. The previous studies primarily used two post-production ocean-bottom surveys (Phase I and Phase II), and not the legacy streamer data, due to the unavailability of legacy prestack data and very different acquisition parameters. In order to incorporate the legacy data in the present study, all three poststack data sets were cross-equalized and examined using instantaneous amplitude and energy volumes. This approach appears quite effective and helps to suppress changes unrelated to production while emphasizing those large-amplitude changes that are related to production in this noisy (by current standards) suite of data. I examine the multiple data sets first by using the instantaneous amplitude and energy attributes, and then also examine specific apparent time-lapse changes through direct comparisons of seismic traces. In so doing, I identify time-delays that, when corrected for, indicate water encroachment at the base of the producing reservoir. I also identify specific sites of leakage from various unproduced reservoirs, the result of regional pressure blowdown as explained in previous studies; those earlier studies, however, were unable to identify direct evidence of fluid movement. Of particular interest is the identification of one site where oil apparently leaked from one reservoir into a “new” reservoir that did not originally contain oil, but was ideally suited as a trap for fluids leaking from the neighboring spill-point. With continued pressure drop, oil in the new reservoir increased as more oil entered into the reservoir and expanded, liberating gas from solution. Because of the limited volume available for oil and gas in that temporary trap, oil and gas also escaped from it into the surrounding formation. I also note that some of the reservoirs demonstrate time-lapse changes only in the “gas cap” and not in the oil zone, even though gas must be coming out of solution everywhere in the reservoir. This is explained by interplay between pore-fluid modulus reduction by gas saturation decrease and dry-frame modulus increase by frame stiffening. In the second part of this work, I examine various rock-physics models in an attempt to quantitatively account for frame-stiffening that results from reduced pore-fluid pressure in the producing reservoir, searching for a model that would predict the unusual AVO features observed in the time-lapse prestack and stacked data at Teal South. While several rock-physics models are successful at predicting the time-lapse response for initial production, most fail to match the observations for continued production between Phase I and Phase II. Because the reservoir was initially overpressured and unconsolidated, reservoir compaction was likely significant, and is probably accomplished largely by uniaxial strain in the vertical direction; this implies that an anisotropic model may be required. Using Walton’s model for anisotropic unconsolidated sand, I successfully model the time-lapse changes for all phases of production. This observation may be of interest for application to other unconsolidated overpressured reservoirs under production.

ON THE EFFECT OF VIRTUAL REALITY ON STUDENT UNDERSTANDING OF AND INTEREST IN PHYSICS

This study investigated the effect that the video game Portal 2 had on students understanding of Newton’s Laws and their attitudes towards learning science during a two-week afterschool program at a science museum. Using a pre/posttest and survey design, along with instructor observations, the results showed a statistically relevant increase in understanding of Newton’s Laws (p=.02<.05) but did not measure a relevant change in attitude scores. The data and observations suggest that future research should pay attention to non-educational aspects of video games, be careful about the amount of time students spend in the game, and encourage positive relationships with game developers.

Physics and Science Policy Implications of Reduction of the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Arsenal

Maintaining the readiness U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile is a fundamental pillar of American defense policy. The biggest issue facing the national laboratories that are charged with this mission is replenishing the highly skilled and specialized manpower that is necessary for this task. This lecture presents both physics and science policy questions that must be answered. It also presents employment opportunities for young scientists and engineers.

Modeling the marine aragonite cycle: changes under rising carbon dioxide and its role in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution

The marine aragonite cycle has been included in the global biogeochemical model PISCES to study the role of aragonite in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution. Aragonite production is parameterized as a function of mesozooplankton biomass and aragonite saturation state of ambient waters. Observation-based estimates of marine carbonate production and dissolution are well reproduced by the model and about 60% of the combined CaCO3 water column dissolution from aragonite and calcite is simulated above 2000 m. In contrast, a calcite-only version yields a much smaller fraction. This suggests that the aragonite cycle should be included in models for a realistic representation of CaCO3 dissolution and alkalinity. For the SRES A2 CO2 scenario, production rates of aragonite are projected to notably decrease after 2050. By the end of this century, global aragonite production is reduced by 29% and total CaCO3 production by 19% relative to pre-industrial. Geographically, the effect from increasing atmospheric CO2, and the subsequent reduction in saturation state, is largest in the subpolar and polar areas where the modeled aragonite production is projected to decrease by 65% until 2100.

Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45). Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

Expected performance of the ATLAS experiment - detector, trigger and physics

A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.

Over two decades of blended and online physics courses at Michigan State University

In Fall 1992, our first physics course offered online homework. Over two decades later, we have seven physics courses online, spanning the whole range of introductory course offerings, with a total of over 1600 students in 2014. We found that several of the the purely online courses had better learning success than traditional lecture courses, as measured by exam scores. Particularly successful were online materials with embedded assessment. This result can be interpreted in different ways, but may serve as an indicator that during in-class lectures, we are oftentimes not taking advantage of the fact that we have the students on-site.

Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

Dosimetric properties of an amorphous silicon EPID for verification of modulated electron radiotherapy

Purpose: To investigate the dosimetric properties of an electronic portal imaging device (EPID) for electron beam detection and to evaluate its potential for quality assurance (QA) of modulated electron radiotherapy (MERT). Methods: A commercially available EPID was used to detect electron beams shaped by a photon multileaf collimator (MLC) at a source-surface distance of 70 cm. The fundamental dosimetric properties such as reproducibility, dose linearity, field size response, energy response, and saturation were investigated for electron beams. A new method to acquire the flood-field for the EPID calibration was tested. For validation purpose, profiles of open fields and various MLC fields (square and irregular) were measured with a diode in water and compared to the EPID measurements. Finally, in order to use the EPID for QA of MERT delivery, a method was developed to reconstruct EPID two-dimensional (2D) dose distributions in a water-equivalent depth of 1.5 cm. Comparisons were performed with film measurement for static and dynamic monoenergy fields as well as for multienergy fields composed by several segments of different electron energies. Results: The advantageous EPID dosimetric properties already known for photons as reproducibility, linearity with dose, and dose rate were found to be identical for electron detection. The flood-field calibration method was proven to be effective and the EPID was capable to accurately reproduce the dose measured in water at 1.0 cm depth for 6 MeV, 1.3 cm for 9 MeV, and 1.5 cm for 12, 15, and 18 MeV. The deviations between the output factors measured with EPID and in water at these depths were within ±1.2% for all the energies with a mean deviation of 0.1%. The average gamma pass rate (criteria: 1.5%, 1.5 mm) for profile comparison between EPID and measurements in water was better than 99% for all the energies considered in this study. When comparing the reconstructed EPID 2D dose distributions at 1.5 cm depth to film measurements, the gamma pass rate (criteria: 2%, 2 mm) was better than 97% for all the tested cases. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the high potential of the EPID for electron dosimetry, and in particular, confirms the possibility to use it as an efficient verification tool for MERT delivery.

Combined effect of heterogeneity, anisotropy and saturation on steady state flow and transport: Structure recognition and numerical simulation

1 Natural soil profiles may be interpreted as an arrangement of parts which are characterized by properties like hydraulic conductivity and water retention function. These parts form a complicated structure. Characterizing the soil structure is fundamental in subsurface hydrology because it has a crucial influence on flow and transport and defines the patterns of many ecological processes. We applied an image analysis method for recognition and classification of visual soil attributes in order to model flow and transport through a man-made soil profile. Modeled and measured saturation-dependent effective parameters were compared. We found that characterizing and describing conductivity patterns in soils with sharp conductivity contrasts is feasible. Differently, solving flow and transport on the basis of these conductivity maps is difficult and, in general, requires special care for representation of small-scale processes.

Combined effects of heterogeneity, anisotropy, and saturation on steady state flow and transport: A laboratory sand tank experiment

Field soils show rather different spreading behavior at different water saturations, frequently caused by layering of the soil material. We performed tracer experiments in a laboratory sand tank. Such experiments complement and help comprehension of field investigations. We estimated, by image analysis, the first two moments of small plumes traveling through a two-dimensional, heterogeneous medium with strongly anisotropic correlation structure. Three steady state regimes were analyzed. Two main conclusions were drawn. First, low saturation led to very large heterogeneity and to strong preferential flow. Thus the description of the flow paths and the prediction of the solute arrival times require, in this case, more accurate knowledge about the topological structure. Second, saturation-dependent macroscopic anisotropy is an essential element of transport in unsaturated media. For this reason, small structural soil features should be properly upscaled to give appropriate effective soil parameters to be input in transport models.