Impact of instantaneous sea ice removal in a coupled general circulation model

The impact of extreme sea ice initial conditions on modelled climate is analysed for a fully coupled atmosphere ocean sea ice general circulation model, the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. A control run is chosen as reference experiment with greenhouse gas concentration fixed at preindustrial conditions. Sensitivity experiments show an almost complete recovery from total removal or strong increase of sea ice after four years. Thus, uncertainties in initial sea ice conditions seem to be unimportant for climate modelling on decadal or longer time scales. When the initial conditions of the ocean mixed layer were adjusted to ice-free conditions, a few substantial differences remained for more than 15 model years. But these differences are clearly smaller than the uncertainty of the HadCM3 run and all the other 19 IPCC fourth assessment report climate model preindustrial runs. It is an important task to improve climate models in simulating the past sea ice variability to enable them to make reliable projections for the 21st century.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Reducing defects through organizational learning within a Housing Association environment

Housing Associations (HAs) contribute circa 20% of the UK’s housing supply. HAs are however under increasing pressure as a result of funding cuts and rent reductions. Due to the increased pressure, a number of processes are currently being reviewed by HAs, especially how they manage and learn from defects. Learning from defects is considered a useful approach to achieving defect reduction within the UK housebuilding industry. This paper contributes to our understanding of how HAs learn from defects by undertaking an initial round table discussion with key HA stakeholders as part of an ongoing collaborative research project with the National House Building Council (NHBC) to better understand how house builders and HAs learn from defects to reduce their prevalence. The initial discussion shows that defect information runs through a number of groups, both internal and external of a HA during both the defects management process and organizational learning (OL) process. Furthermore, HAs are reliant on capturing and recording defect data as the foundation for the OL process. During the OL process defect data analysis is the primary enabler to recognizing a need for a change to organizational routines. When a need for change has been recognized, new options are typically pursued to design out defects via updates to a HAs Employer’s Requirements. Proposed solutions are selected by a review board and committed to organizational routine. After implementing a change, both structured and unstructured feedback is sought to establish the change’s success. The findings from the HA discussion demonstrates that OL can achieve defect reduction within the house building sector in the UK. The paper concludes by outlining a potential ‘learning from defects model’ for the housebuilding industry as well as describing future work.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MI-ROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS`s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

On spermiogenesis, sperm cell morphology and accompanying secretions of Copidognathus (Acari: Halacaridae)

The genus Copidognathus includes one-third of the species of Halacaridae described to date. This article describes spermiogenesis, sperm cell morphology and accompanying secretions from three species of Copidognathus. Initial spermatids have electron-dense cytoplasm with scattered mitochondria, a well-developed Golgi body, and nuclei with patches of heterochromatin. The cytoplasm and nuclei of these cells undergo intense swelling. The second spermatids are large electron-translucent cells, with small mitochondria in row along the remains of the endoplasmatic reticulum. In the succeeding stage, most of the cytoplasmatic structures and mitochondria have disappeared or have undergone profound transformations. Nuclei and cells elongate and chromatin begins to condense near the nuclear envelope. An acrosomal complex appears at the tip of the nucleus. The acrosomal filament is thick and runs the entire length of the nucleus. Plasmalemmal invaginations at the cell surface give rise to tubules filled with an electron-dense material. Sperm cell maturation is completed in the ventral portion of the germinal part, near the testicular lumen. As a final step in spermiogenesis, cytoplasm of the last spermatid undergoes a moderate condensation and the cariotheca disappears. Mature sperm cells were found in a matrix of ""simple"" and ""complex"" corpuscles, the latter consisting of flattened, spindle-shaped secreted bodies. Rather than in individual sperm aggregates, spermatozoa were contained in a single droplet inside the vas deferens, on a large secretion mass, structured as rows of platelets sunk in a fine grained matrix. Each mature sperm cell is covered by a thick secreted coat. In contrast to the genera Rhombognathus and other Actinotrichida, Copidognathus displays a set of features that must be regarded as apomorphic. The absence of usual mitochondria, the presence of electro-dense tubules and secretions similar to those present in Thalassarachna and Halacarellus, and the pattern of nuclear condensation are possibly shared apomorphies with these latter genera. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Separating the wheat from the chaff: unbiased filtering of background tandem mass spectra improves protein identification

Only a small fraction of spectra acquired in LC-MS/MS runs matches peptides from target proteins upon database searches. The remaining, operationally termed background, spectra originate from a variety of poorly controlled sources and affect the throughput and confidence of database searches. Here, we report an algorithm and its software implementation that rapidly removes background spectra, regardless of their precise origin. The method estimates the dissimilarity distance between screened MS/MS spectra and unannotated spectra from a partially redundant background library compiled from several control and blank runs. Filtering MS/MS queries enhanced the protein identification capacity when searches lacked spectrum to sequence matching specificity. In sequence-similarity searches it reduced by, on average, 30-fold the number of orphan hits, which were not explicitly related to background protein contaminants and required manual validation. Removing high quality background MS/MS spectra, while preserving in the data set the genuine spectra from target proteins, decreased the false positive rate of stringent database searches and improved the identification of low-abundance proteins.

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species` sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the catalytic hydrogenation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons into less toxic compounds by a facile recoverable catalyst

Here we present the catalytic hydrogenation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to less toxic mixtures of saturated and partial unsaturated polycyclic hydrocarbons under mild reaction conditions using a magnetically recoverable rhodium catalyst and molecular hydrogen as the exclusive H source. The catalyst is easily recovered after each reaction by placing a permanent magnet on the reactor wall and it can be reused in successive runs without any significant loss of catalytic activity. As an example, anthracene was totally converted into the saturated polycyclic hydrocarbon form (ca. 60%) and the partially hydrogenated form, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8-octahydroanthracene (ca. 40%). The catalyst operates in a broad range of temperature and H(2) pressure in both organic and aqueous/organic solutions of anthracene and it also exhibits significant activity at low substrate concentrations (20 ppm). This can be an efficient recycling process for hydrogenation of PAHs present in contaminated fluid waste streams. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automatic camera control in virtual environments augmented using multiple sparse videos

Automated virtual camera control has been widely used in animation and interactive virtual environments. We have developed a multiple sparse camera based free view video system prototype that allows users to control the position and orientation of a virtual camera, enabling the observation of a real scene in three dimensions (3D) from any desired viewpoint. Automatic camera control can be activated to follow selected objects by the user. Our method combines a simple geometric model of the scene composed of planes (virtual environment), augmented with visual information from the cameras and pre-computed tracking information of moving targets to generate novel perspective corrected 3D views of the virtual camera and moving objects. To achieve real-time rendering performance, view-dependent textured mapped billboards are used to render the moving objects at their correct locations and foreground masks are used to remove the moving objects from the projected video streams. The current prototype runs on a PC with a common graphics card and can generate virtual 2D views from three cameras of resolution 768 x 576 with several moving objects at about 11 fps. (C)2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inactivation kinetics of polyphenol oxidase and peroxidase in green coconut water by microwave processing

The inactivation kinetics of enzymes polyphenol oxidase (PPO) and peroxidase (POD) was studied for the batch (discontinuous) microwave treatment of green coconut water. Inactivation of commercial PPO and POD added to sterile coconut water was also investigated. The complete time-temperature profiles of the experimental runs were used for determination of the kinetic parameters D-value and z-value: PPO (D(92.20 degrees C) = 52 s and z = 17.6 degrees C); POD (D(92.92 degrees C) = 16 s and z = 11.5 degrees C); PPO/sterile coconut water: (D(84.45 degrees C) = 43 s and z = 39.5 degrees C) and POD/sterile coconut water: (D(86.54 degrees C) = 20 s and z = 19.3 degrees C). All data were well fitted by a first order kinetic model. The enzymes naturally present in coconut water showed a higher resistance when compared to those added to the sterilized medium or other simulated solutions reported in the literature. The thermal inactivation of PPO and POD during microwave processing of green coconut water was significantly faster in comparison with conventional processes reported in the literature. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a fast capillary electrophoresis method for the determination of propranolol-Total analysis time reduction strategies

The aim of this study was to develop a fast capillary electrophoresis method for the determination of propranolol in pharmaceutical preparations. In the method development the pH and constituents of the background electrolyte were selected using the effective mobility versus pH curves. Benzylamine was used as the internal standard. The background electrolyte was composed of 60 mmol L(-1) tris(hydroxymethyl)aminomethane and 30 mmol L(-1) 2-hydroxyisobutyric acid,at pH 8.1. Separation was conducted in a fused-silica capillary (32 cm total length and 8.5 cm effective length, 50 mu m I.D.) with a short-end injection configuration and direct UV detection at 214 nm. The run time was only 14 s. Three different strategies were studied in order to develop a fast CE method with low total analysis time for propranolol analysis: low flush time (Lflush) 35 runs/h, without flush (Wflush) 52 runs/h, and Invert (switched polarity) 45 runs/h. Since the three strategies developed are statistically equivalent, Mush was selected due to the higher analytical frequency in comparison with the other methods. A few figures of merit of the proposed method include: good linearity (R(2) > 0.9999); limit of detection of 0.5 mg L(-1): inter-day precision better than 1.03% (n = 9) and recovery in the range of 95.1-104.5%. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sample stacking in CZE using dynamic thermal junctions I. Analytes with low dpK(a)/dT crossing a single thermally induced pH junction in a BGE with high dpH/dT

The possibility to compress analyte bands at the beginning of CE runs has many advantages. Analytes at low concentration can be analyzed with high signal-to-noise ratios by using the so-called sample stacking methods. Moreover, sample injections with very narrow initial band widths (small initial standard deviations) are sometimes useful, especially if high resolutions among the bands are required in the shortest run time. In the present work, a method of sample stacking is proposed and demonstrated. It is based on BGEs with high thermal sensitive pHs (high dpH/dT) and analytes with low dpK(a)/dT. High thermal sensitivity means that the working pK(a) of the BGE has a high dpK(a)/dT in modulus. For instance, Tris and Ethanolamine have dpH/dT = -0.028/degrees C and -0.029/degrees C, respectively, whereas carboxylic acids have low dpK(a)/dT values, i.e. in the -0.002/degrees C to+0.002/degrees C range. The action of cooling and heating sections along the capillary during the runs affects also the local viscosity, conductivity, and electric field strength. The effect of these variables on electrophoretic velocity and band compression is theoretically calculated using a simple model. Finally, this stacking method was demonstrated for amino acids derivatized with naphthalene-2,3-dicarboxaldehyde and fluorescamine using a temperature difference of 70 degrees C between two neighbor sections and Tris as separation buffer. In this case, the BGE has a high pH thermal coefficient whereas the carboxylic groups of the analytes have low pK(a) thermal coefficients. The application of these dynamic thermal gradients increased peak height by a factor of two (and decreased the standard deviations of peaks by a factor of two) of aspartic acid and glutamic acid derivatized with naphthalene-2,3-dicarboxaldehyde and serine derivatized with fluorescamine. The effect of thermal compression of bands was not observed when runs were accomplished using phosphate buffer at pH 7 (negative control). Phosphate has a low dpH/dT in this pH range, similar to the dK(a)/dT of analytes. It is shown that vertical bar dK(a)/dT-dpH/dT vertical bar >> 0 is one determinant factor to have significant stacking produced by dynamic thermal junctions.

Electricity Supply Solutions for an Educational Center in Tanzania

The aim of this study was to investigate electricity supply solutions for an educationalcenter that is being built in Chonyonyo Tanzania. Off-grid power generation solutions andfurther optimization possibilities were studied for the case.The study was done for Engineers Without Borders in Sweden. Who are working withMavuno Project on the educational center. The school is set to start operating in year 2015with 40 girl students in the beginning. The educational center will help to improve genderequality by offering high quality education in a safe environment for girls in rural area.It is important for the system to be economically and environmentally sustainable. Thearea has great potential for photovoltaic power generation. Thus PV was considered as theprimary power generation and a diesel generator as a reliable backup. The system sizeoptimization was done with HOMER. For the simulations HOMER required componentdata, weather data and load data. Common components were chose with standardproperties, the loads were based on load estimations from year 2011 and the weather datawas acquired from NASA database. The system size optimization result for this base casewas a system with 26 kW PW; 5.5 kW diesel generator, 15 kW converter and 112 T-105batteries. The initial cost of the system was 55 875 €, the total net present cost 92 121 €and the levelized cost of electricity 0.264 €/kWh.In addition three optimization possibilities were studied. First it was studied how thesystem should be designed and how it would affect the system size to have night loads(security lights) use DC and could the system then be extended in blocks. As a result it wasfound out that the system size could be decreased as the inverter losses would be avoided.Also the system extension in blocks was found to be possible. The second study was aboutinverter stacking where multiple inverters can work as one unit. This type of connectionallows only the required number of inverters to run while shutting down the excess ones.This would allow the converter-unit to run with higher efficiency and lower powerconsumption could be achieved. In future with higher loads the system could be easilyextendable by connecting more inverters either in parallel or series depending on what isneeded. Multiple inverters would also offer higher reliability than using one centralizedinverter. The third study examined how the choice of location for a centralized powergeneration affects the cable sizing for the system. As a result it was found that centralizedpower generation should be located close to high loads in order to avoid long runs of thickcables. Future loads should also be considered when choosing the location. For theeducational center the potential locations for centralized power generation were found outto be close to the school buildings and close to the dormitories.

Men barnen då? : Ekonomiskt bistånd och det sociala arvet mellan föräldrar och barn

I denna kvalitativa studie har vi valt att undersöka hur man på enheten för ekonomiskt bistånd arbetar förebyggande för att motverka att det långvariga biståndstagandet går i socialt arv mellan föräldrar och barn. För att ta reda på detta har vi intervjuat socialsekreterare med erfarenhet och kompetens inom området. Det insamlade materialet har analyserats utifrån den sociala inlärningsteorin som ett försök till att förstå hur det sociala arvet kan föras vidare mellan generationer. Som ett komplement till teorin används även barnperspektivet i analysen då barnen har stor del i studien. Denna studie visar och bekräftar att långvarigt ekonomiskt biståndstagande kan komma att gå i socialt arv mellan föräldrar och barn. Studien visar även på vilket sätt förebyggande arbete för dessa familjer sker på enheten för ekonomiskt bistånd.