Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (e.g. prices and dividends) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PVM) linking them. The work on cointegration,namelyon long-run co-movements, has been so prevalent that it is often over-looked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. This amounts to investigate whether short-run co-movememts steming from common cyclical feature restrictions are also present in such a system. In this paper we test for the presence of such co-movement on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. We focuss on the potential improvement in forecasting accuracies when imposing those two types of restrictions coming from economic theory.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Co-movement between two processes with local persistence

This paper introduces a residual based test where the null hypothesis of c:&InOvement between two processes with local persistenc~ can be tested, even under the presence of an endogenous regressor. It, therefore, fills in an existing lacuna in econometrics, in which longrun relationships can also be tested if the dependent and independent variables do not have a unit root, but do exhibit local persistence.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

Using a sequence of nested multivariate models that are VAR-based, we discuss different layers of restrictions imposed by present-value models (PVM hereafter) on the VAR in levels for series that are subject to present-value restrictions. Our focus is novel - we are interested in the short-run restrictions entailed by PVMs (Vahid and Engle, 1993, 1997) and their implications for forecasting. Using a well-known database, kept by Robert Shiller, we implement a forecasting competition that imposes different layers of PVM restrictions. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to the unrestricted VAR. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produces forecast winners 70% of the time for the target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Movement of Spodoptera frugiperda Adults (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Maize in Brazil

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith), is one of the most important maize pests in the Americas and particularly in South America. With the adoption of genetically modified plants expressing Bacillus thuringiensis toxins for lepidopterous pest control, there is a need for establishing strategies to delay the development of insect resistance (e.g. refuge areas). Thus, information on target insects' dispersal is essential to improve pest management techniques. The objective of this work was to evaluate the dispersal capacity of S. frugiperda adults using mark-release-recapture techniques. Insects were marked using red oil-soluble dye in the larval artificial diet. Marked adults were released twice in each growing season (dry and wet) in southeastern Brazil in 2006 and 2007. Recapture of marked insects was performed using light and pheromone traps. Males are more attracted to light traps than females and the recapture rate was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season. The most adequate model to explain the relationship between flight distance and number of recaptured insects is y = a(2)/ (1+ (2a(1.8)+ bx))((2.6)), where y is the distance and x is the number captured. The maximum recapture distances were 806 m for males and 608 m for females. Therefore, strategies for establishment of refuges should take such distances into consideration.

Root system of Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. IPR-86 Mil(e)over-capnio fertilized with nitrogen and submitted to rotational stocking

The effect of nitrogen on the root system of the species Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. IPR-86 Mil (e) over cap nio, under grazing, was evaluated. The N rates were 0; 150; 300 and 450 kg/ha. year. The root density was evaluated during pregrazing at five years of successive N application, in three depths (0-10; 10-20 and 20-40 cm) and the root growth at 7, 14, 21, and 35 days after grazing. The grazing method adopted was rotational stocking. Root length and root mass densities in pre-and post-grazing presented maximum values at rates 204, 206, 192, and 197 kg/ha of N, respectively. The root growth (in root length density) increased, on average, until 29 days after grazing at rates 0, 150, and 300 kg/ha; at 450 kg/ha N rate, the increase was linear. Independently of N rates, around 60 and 25% of IPR-86 Mil (e) over cap nio cultivar root system was concentrated in 0-10 and 10-20 cm depth, respectively.

Activity, movement and secretive behavior of a threatened arboreal folivore, the thin-spined porcupine, in the Atlantic forest of southern Bahia, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

About the Use of the HdHr Algorithm Group in Integrating the Movement Equation with Nonlinear Terms

This work summarizes the HdHr group of Hermitian integration algorithms for dynamic structural analysis applications. It proposes a procedure for their use when nonlinear terms are present in the equilibrium equation. The simple pendulum problem is solved as a first example and the numerical results are discussed. Directions to be pursued in future research are also mentioned. Copyright (C) 2009 H.M. Bottura and A. C. Rigitano.

Analytical and semi-analytical analysis of an artificial satellite's rotational motion

The rotational motion of an artificial satellite is studied by considering torques produced by gravity gradient and direct solar radiation pressure. A satellite of circular cylinder shape is considered here, and Andoyers variables are used to describe the rotational motion. Expressions for direct solar radiation torque are derived. When the earth's shadow is not considered, an analytical solution is obtained using Lagrange's method of variation of parameters. A semi-analytical procedure is proposed to predict the satellite's attitude under the influence of the earth's shadow. The analytical solution shows that angular variables are linear and periodic functions of time while their conjugates suffer only periodic variations. When compared, numerical and analytical solutions have a good agreement during the time range considered.

Study of Stability of Rotational Motion of Spacecraft with Canonical Variables

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Celecoxib treatment does not alter recruitment and activation of osteoclasts in the initial phase of experimental tooth movement

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Microscopic evaluation of induced tooth movement in traumatized teeth: an experimental study in rats

The clinical management of orthodontic patients with dental trauma before or during the treatment is mainly founded on clinical experience, expert opinions, and individual case reports. It is proposed in the literature that teeth sustaining mild trauma with minor damage to the periodontium (e.g. subluxation) should be followed for a period of time before being subjected to orthodontic forces. A minimum period of 3 months has been proposed. In this study, we used an animal model to investigate whether shorter observation periods could be established in case of mild trauma. The periradicular region of rat molars was examined microscopically to determine the biological events of tooth movement started 15 and 30 days after intentional subluxation using an experimental method to induce dentoalveolar trauma. Thirty adult male Wistar rats were assigned to 6 groups (n = 5): Group 1 (control no trauma/orthodontic movement); Group 2: the animals received an orthodontic device and were sacrificed after 7 days; Groups 3 and 4: dentoalveolar trauma (subluxation) was experimentally induced by the application of an axial force of 900 cN on the occlusal surface of the maxillary right first molar, and the animals were sacrificed after 22 and 37 days, respectively; and Groups 5 and 6: 15 and 30 days, respectively, after force application, an orthodontic device was installed and the rats were sacrificed 7 days later. In G5 and G6, the periodontal ligament and pulp tissue were rich in cellular elements and blood vessels, the alveolar bone was preserved, and the root surface presented only very small areas of surface resorption (cementum), maintaining the characteristics of normality. In conclusion, the microscopic alterations in the gingival and periodontal tissues in response to an experimentally induced mild dentoalveolar trauma simulating subluxation were not sufficient to contraindicate starting the orthodontic movement 15 and 30 days after trauma.

Implant-retained thumb prosthesis with anti-rotational attachment for a geriatric patient

This report presents the use of a dental implant with an anti-rotational attachment for the retention of a thumb prosthesis. A retention system was manufactured with an attachment (UCLA) screwed into the implant with a two-bar system that was cast in metallic silver palladium. A substructure made from heat-cured acrylic resin was joined to the retention system by clips to join the thumb to the finger (bar clip) in the cast with implant rejoinder. The silicone material, Silastic-MDX 44210, was used to achieve function and aesthetics. Following osseointegration, no skin problems were observed. Whilst the implant-retained digital prosthesis presented some motor limitations, it allowed the patient to return to entertainment and achieve social conviviality.

Mandibular Movement Restoration Through Bilateral Coronoidectomy by Intraoral Approach

The present study aimed at reporting a clinical and surgical case of bilateral coronoidectomy, using an intraoral approach. The patient is a 26-year-old man, who sought attendance complaining of a gradual reduction of his oral opening in the past 3 years; however, he had an aggravation in the last 2 months. After clinical examination and imaging evaluation, the diagnosis of coronoid process hyperplasia was confirmed, and the surgical treatment was proposed. Under general anesthesia, with nasotracheal intubation guided by a nasofiberendoscope, using an intraoral approach, the bilateral coronoidectomy was performed. In the immediate postoperative period, an increase of the buccal opening measured 29 mm, representing an enhancement of 11 mm, and in the 30th postoperative day, it measured 31.12 mm. During the clinical follow-up period, a reestablishment of the mandibular movements was observed. Therefore, coronoidectomy by an intraoral approach and the physiotherapy performed in the postoperative period were efficient procedures.

Effect of Flasking and Polymerization Techniques on Tooth Movement in Complete Denture Processing

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the artificial tooth positional changes following the flasking and polymerization of complete dentures by a combination of two flasking methods and two polymerization techniques using computer graphic measurements.Materials and Methods: Four groups of waxed complete dentures (n = 10) were invested and polymerized using the following techniques: (1) adding a second investment layer of gypsum and conventional water bath polymerization (Control), (2) adding a second investment layer of gypsum and polymerization with microwave energy (Gyp-micro), (3) adding a second investment layer of silicone (Zetalabor) and conventional polymerization (Silwater), and (4) adding a second investment layer of silicone and polymerization with microwave energy (Silmicro). For each specimen, six segments of interdental distances (A to F) were measured to determine the artificial tooth positions in the waxed and polymerized stages using software program AutoCad R14. The mean values of the changes were statistically compared by univariate ANOVA with Tukey post-hoc test at 5% significance.Results: There were no significant differences among the four groups, except for segment D of the Silmicro group (-0.004 +/- 0.032 cm) in relation to the Gypwater group (0.044 +/- 0.031 cm) (p < 0.05), which presented, repectively, expansion and shrinkage after polymerization.Conclusions: Within the limitations of this study, it was concluded that although the differences were not statistically significant, the use of a silicone investment layer when flasking complete dentures resulted in the least positional changes of the artificial teeth regardless of the polymerization technique.