847 resultados para Risk and loss functions


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Os equipamentos elétricos e eletrônicos (EEE) possuem uma grande importância na sociedade contemporânea, e estão presentes no cotidiano das pessoas de forma ubíqua. Com o aumento no consumo de EEE juntamente com a obsolescência precoce, surge um novo tipo de resíduo, chamado de Resíduos de Equipamentos Elétricos e Eletrônicos (REEE). Os REEE não devem ser descartados em aterros, pelo risco de contaminação e pelo desperdício de material. Assim, a reciclagem se faz necessária. As placas de circuito impresso (PCI) estão presentes na grande maioria do REEE e contem a maior variedade de metais, incluindo metais valiosos como Au, Ag, Pt e Cu. A complexidade torna a reciclagem destas placas muito difícil. Rotas hidrometalúrgicas tem surgido como uma alternativa mais limpa para o tratamento de PCI, em detrimento aos processos pirometalúrgicos. Nas rotas hidrometalúrgicas, os metais são extraídos pela lixiviação realizada por ácidos ou bases. O efeito ultrassônico tem sido empregado na síntese de novas substâncias e também em alguns casos no tratamento de resíduos. O processo central no uso de ultrassom é a cavitação acústica, capaz de produzir microbolhas na solução com temperatura da ordem de 5000 K e pressão de 500 atm localmente. Além disto, a implosão das bolhas de cavitação em meio heterogêneo causa um jato de solução na superfície, que pode alcançar velocidade de 100 m.s-1. Assim, esta tese tem como objetivo a investigação do efeito do ultrassom sobre PCI obsoletas. Dois efeitos foram investigados: o efeito da cominuição das PCI promovido pela cavitação e a influência da cavitação na lixiviação com ácido sulfúrico de Fe, Al e Ni. Os parâmetros investigados na cominuição foram: tipo de placa, granulometria da placa moída e potência de ultrassom. Os parâmetros de lixiviação avaliados foram: razão sólido-líquido (S/L), concentração de ácido e potência de ultrassom. Também foram realizados ensaios de lixiviação sonicados com meio oxidante. Foi feita a análise cinética para se determinar qual é o controle da reação de lixiviação.

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The intensity correlation functions C(t) for the colored-gain-noise model of dye lasers are analyzed and compared with those for the loss-noise model. For correlation times ¿ larger than the deterministic relaxation time td, we show with the use of the adiabatic approximation that C(t) values coincide for both models. For small correlation times we use a method that provides explicit expressions of non-Markovian correlation functions, approximating simultaneously short- and long-time behaviors. Comparison with numerical simulations shows excellent results simultaneously for short- and long-time regimes. It is found that, when the correlation time of the noise increases, differences between the gain- and loss-noise models tend to disappear. The decay of C(t) for both models can be described by a time scale that approaches the deterministic relaxation time. However, in contrast with the loss-noise model, a secondary time scale remains for large times for the gain-noise model, which could allow one to distinguish between both models.

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Multiple measures have been devised by clinicians and theorists from many different backgrounds for the purpose of assessing the influence of the frontal lobes on behaviour. Some utilize self-report measures to investigate behavioural characteristics such as risktaking, sensation seeking, impulsivity, and sensitivity to reward and punishment in an attempt to understand complex human decision making. Others rely more on neuroimaging and electrophysiological investigation involving experimental tasks thought to demonstrate executive functions in action, while other researchers prefer to study clinical populations with selective damage. Neuropsychological models of frontal lobe functioning have led to a greater appreciation of the dissociations among various aspects of prefrontal cortex function. This thesis involves (1) an examination of various psychometric and experimental indices of executive functions for coherence as one would predict on the basis of highly developed neurophysiological models of prefrontal function, particularly those aspects of executive function that involve predominantly cognitive abilities versus processes characterized by affect regulation; and (2) investigation of the relations between risk-taking, attentional abilties and their associated characteristics using a neurophysiological model of prefrontal functions addressed in (1). Late adolescence is a stage in which the prefrontal cortices undergo intensive structural and functional maturational changes; this period also involves increases in levels of risky and sensation driven behaviours, as well as a hypersensitivity to reward and a reduction in inhibition. Consequently, late adolescence spears to represent an ideal developmental period in which to examine these decision-making behaviours due to the maximum variability of behavioural characteristics of interest. Participants were 45 male undergraduate 18- to 19-year olds, who completed a battery of measures that included self-report, experimental and behavioural measures designed to assess particular aspects of prefrontal and executive functioning. As predicted, factor analysis supported the grouping of executive process by type (either primarily cognitive or affective), conforming to the orbitofrontal versus dorsolateral typology; risk-taking and associated characteristics were associated more with the orbitofrontal than the dorsolateral factor, whereas attentional and planning abilities tended to correlate more strongly with the dorsolateral factor. Results are discussed in light of future assessment, investigation and understanding of complex human decision-making and executive functions. Implications, applications and suggestions for future research are also proposed.

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Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

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Sequential estimation of the success probability p in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator pˆ , its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters a and b for pˆ

and pˆ>p , respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as p→0, and which guarantee that, for any p∈(0,1), the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, r, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown p. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when a/b does not deviate too much from 1, and asymptotically minimax as r→∞ when a=b.

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Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hatvap$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters $a$ and $b$ for $\hatvap < p$ and $\hatvap > p$ respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as $p \rightarrow 0$, and which guarantee that, for any $p \in (0,1)$, the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, $\nnum$, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown $p$. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when $a/b$ does not deviate too much from $1$, and asymptotically minimax as $\nnum \rightarrow \infty$ when $a=b$.

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Standard tools for the analysis of economic problems involving uncertainty, including risk premiums, certainty equivalents and the notions of absolute and relative risk aversion, are developed without making specific assumptions on functional form beyond the basic requirements of monotonicity, transitivity, continuity, and the presumption that individuals prefer certainty to risk. Individuals are not required to display probabilistic sophistication. The approach relies on the distance and benefit functions to characterize preferences relative to a given state-contingent vector of outcomes. The distance and benefit functions are used to derive absolute and relative risk premiums and to characterize preferences exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). A generalization of the notion of Schur-concavity is presented. If preferences are generalized Schur concave, the absolute and relative risk premiums are generalized Schur convex, and the certainty equivalents are generalized Schur concave.

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In the forest zone of Cameroon, small-scale family farmers practicing traditional slash and burn practices achieve a clear field by piled burning of the branches and trunks of cleared vegetation. Plant growth inhibition on ash patches, and the risk of nutrient loss from these areas, was evaluated on field plots on which 0.5 t m(-2) or 1.0 t m(-2) of wood was piled and burnt, and in laboratory studies. The ash produced by burning was strongly alkaline, and laboratory bio-assessment studies showed that the saline, high pH conditions produced in ash patches prevented germination and plant growth for up to two wet seasons, as is observed in the field. Field and laboratory studies demonstrated rapid release (1 wet season) of K and S from the ash and the loss of a substantial portion of these nutrients from the soil profile by leaching. In contrast, leaching carries Mg from the ash gradually (3 to 4 wet seasons), while Ca, Cu, Zn and P are leached slowly. The nutrients contained in ash patches are considered at risk of loss both through leaching (K and S) and by erosion of ash (Ca, Mg, Cu, Zn and P). Farmers should be encouraged to spread ash patches prior to cultivation in order to exploit the nutrient content of ash and to lessen the risk of nutrient loss.

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OBJECTIVE: Ability to work and live independently is of particular concern for patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). We studied a series of PD patients able to work or live independently at baseline, and evaluated potential risk factors for two separate outcomes: loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. METHODS: The series comprised 495 PD patients followed prospectively. Ability to work and ability to live independently were based on clinical interview and examination. Cox regression models adjusted for age and disease duration were used to evaluate associations of baseline characteristics with loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. RESULTS: Higher UPDRS dyskinesia score, UPDRS instability score, UPDRS total score, Hoehn and Yahr stage, and presence of intellectual impairment at baseline were all associated with increased risk of future loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently (P ≤ 0.0033). Five years after initial visit, for patients ≤70 years of age with a disease duration ≤4 years at initial visit, 88% were still able to work and 90% to live independently. These estimates worsened as age and disease duration at initial visit increased; for patients >70 years of age with a disease duration >4 years, estimates at 5 years were 43% able to work and 57% able to live independently. CONCLUSIONS: The information provided in this study can offer useful information for PD patients in preparing for future ability to perform activities of daily living.

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Fragile X-associated tremor/ataxia syndrome (FXTAS) is a late-onset movement disorder associated with FMR1 premutation alleles. Asymptomatic premutation (aPM) carriers have preserved cognitive functions, but they present subtle executive deficits. Current efforts are focusing on the identification of specific cognitive markers that can detect aPM carriers at higher risk of developing FXTAS. This study aims at evaluating verbal memory and executive functions as early markers of disease progression while exploring associated brain structure changes using diffusion tensor imaging. We assessed 30 aPM men and 38 intrafamilial controls. The groups perform similarly in the executive domain except for decreased performance in motor planning in aPM carriers. In the memory domain, aPM carriers present a significant decrease in verbal encoding and retrieval. Retrieval is associated with microstructural changes of the white matter (WM) of the left hippocampal fimbria. Encoding is associated with changes in the WM under the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region implicated in relational memory encoding. These associations were found in the aPM group only and did not show age-related decline. This may be interpreted as a neurodevelopmental effect of the premutation, and longitudinal studies are required to better understand these mechanisms.

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In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

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We experimentally question the assertion of Prospect Theory that people display risk attraction in choices involving high-probability losses. Indeed, our experimental participants tend to avoid fair risks for large (up to ? 90), high-probability (80%) losses. Our research hinges on a novel experimental method designed to alleviate the house-money bias that pervades experiments with real (not hypothetical) loses.Our results vindicate Daniel Bernoulli?s view that risk aversion is the dominant attitude,But, contrary to the Bernoulli-inspired canonical expected utility theory, we do find frequent risk attraction for small amounts of money at stake.In any event, we attempt neither to test expected utility versus nonexpected utility theories, nor to contribute to the important literature that estimates value and weighting functions. The question that we ask is more basic, namely: do people display risk aversion when facing large losses, or large gains? And, at the risk of oversimplifying, our answer is yes.

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Distortion risk measures summarize the risk of a loss distribution by means of a single value. In fuzzy systems, the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) and Weighted Ordered Weighted Averaging (WOWA) operators are used to aggregate a large number of fuzzy rules into a single value. We show that these concepts can be derived from the Choquet integral, and then the mathematical relationship between distortion risk measures and the OWA and WOWA operators for discrete and finite random variables is presented. This connection offers a new interpretation of distortion risk measures and, in particular, Value-at-Risk and Tail Value-at-Risk can be understood from an aggregation operator perspective. The theoretical results are illustrated in an example and the degree of orness concept is discussed.

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Female sexual dysfunctions, including desire, arousal, orgasm and pain problems, have been shown to be highly prevalent among women around the world. The etiology of these dysfunctions is unclear but associations with health, age, psychological problems, and relationship factors have been identified. Genetic effects explain individual variation in orgasm function to some extent but until now quantitative behavior genetic analyses have not been applied to other sexual functions. In addition, behavior genetics can be applied to exploring the cause of any observed comorbidity between the dysfunctions. Discovering more about the etiology of the dysfunctions may further improve the classification systems which are currently under intense debate. The aims of the present thesis were to evaluate the psychometric properties of a Finnish-language version of a commonly used questionnaire for measuring female sexual function, the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI), in order to investigate prevalence, comorbidity, and classification, and to explore the balance of genetic and environmental factors in the etiology as well as the associations of a number of biopsychosocial factors with female sexual functions. Female sexual functions were studied through survey methods in a population based sample of Finnish twins and their female siblings. There were two waves of data collection. The first data collection targeted 5,000 female twins aged 33–43 years and the second 7,680 female twins aged 18–33 and their over 18–year-old female siblings (n = 3,983). There was no overlap between the data collections. The combined overall response rate for both data collections was 53% (n = 8,868), with a better response rate in the second (57%) compared to the first (45%). In order to measure female sexual function, the FSFI was used. It includes 19 items which measure female sexual function during the previous four weeks in six subdomains; desire, subjective arousal, lubrication, orgasm, sexual satisfaction, and pain. In line with earlier research in clinical populations, a six factor solution of the Finnish-language version of the FSFI received supported. The internal consistencies of the scales were good to excellent. Some questions about how to avoid overestimating the prevalence of extreme dysfunctions due to women being allocated the score of zero if they had had no sexual activity during the preceding four weeks were raised. The prevalence of female sexual dysfunctions per se ranged from 11% for lubrication dysfunction to 55% for desire dysfunction. The prevalence rates for sexual dysfunction with concomitant sexual distress, in other words, sexual disorders were notably lower ranging from 7% for lubrication disorder to 23% for desire disorder. The comorbidity between the dysfunctions was substantial most notably between arousal and lubrication dysfunction even if these two dysfunctions showed distinct patterns of associations with the other dysfunctions. Genetic influences on individual variation in the six subdomains of FSFI were modest but significant ranging from 3–11% for additive genetic effects and 5–18% for nonadditive genetic effects. The rest of the variation in sexual functions was explained by nonshared environmental influences. A correlated factor model, including additive and nonadditive genetic effects and nonshared environmental effects had the best fit. All in all, every correlation between the genetic factors was significant except between lubrication and pain. All correlations between the nonshared environment factors were significant showing that there is a substantial overlap in genetic and nonshared environmental influences between the dysfunctions. In general, psychological problems, poor satisfaction with the relationship, sexual distress, and poor partner compatibility were associated with more sexual dysfunctions. Age was confounded with relationship length but had over and above relationship length a negative effect on desire and sexual satisfaction and a positive effect on orgasm and pain functions. Alcohol consumption in general was associated with better desire, arousal, lubrication, and orgasm function. Women pregnant with their first child had fewer pain problems than nulliparous nonpregnant women. Multiparous pregnant women had more orgasm problems compared to multiparous nonpregnant women. Having children was associated with less orgasm and pain problems. The conclusions were that desire, subjective arousal, lubrication, orgasm, sexual satisfaction, and pain are separate entities that have distinct associations with a number of different biopsychosocial factors. However, there is also considerable comorbidity between the dysfunctions which are explained by overlap in additive genetic, nonadditive genetic and nonshared environmental influences. Sexual dysfunctions are highly prevalent and are not always associated with sexual distress and this relationship might be moderated by a good relationship and compatibility with partner. Regarding classification, the results supports separate diagnoses for subjective arousal and genital arousal as well as the inclusion of pain under sexual dysfunctions.

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Obesity is one of the key challenges to health care system worldwide and its prevalence is estimated to rise to pandemic proportions. Numerous adverse health effects follow with increasing body weight, including increased risk of hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, musculoskeletal pain and cancer. Current evidence suggests that obesity is associated with altered cerebral reward circuit functioning and decreased inhibitory control over appetitive food cues. Furthermore, obesity causes adverse shifts in metabolism and loss of structural integrity within the brain. Prior cross-sectional studies do not allow delineating which of these cerebral changes are recoverable after weight loss. We compared morbidly obese subjects with healthy controls to unravel brain changes associated with obesity. Bariatric surgery was used as an intervention to study which cerebral changes are recoverable after weight loss. In Study I we employed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to detect the brain basis of volitional appetite control and its alterations in obesity. In Studies II-III we used diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to quantify the effects of obesity and the effects of weight loss on structural integrity of the brain. In study IV we used positron emission tomography (PET) with [18F]-FDG in fasting state and during euglycemic hyperinsulinemia to quantify effects of obesity and weight loss on brain glucose uptake. The fMRI experiment revealed that a fronto-parietal network is involved in volitional appetite control. Obese subjects had lower medial frontal and dorsal striatal brain activity during cognitive appetite control and increased functional connectivity within the appetite control circuit. Obese subjects had initially lower grey matter and white matter densities than healthy controls in VBM analysis and loss of integrity in white matter tracts as measured by DTI. They also had initially elevated glucose metabolism under insulin stimulation but not in fasting state. After the weight loss following bariatric surgery, obese individuals’ brain volumes recovered and the insulin-induced increase in glucose metabolism was attenuated. In conclusion, obesity is associated with altered brain function, coupled with loss of structural integrity and elevated glucose metabolism, which are likely signs of adverse health effects to the brain. These changes are reversed by weight loss after bariatric surgery, implicating that weight loss has a causal role on these adverse cerebral changes. Altogether these findings suggest that weight loss also promotes brain health.Key words: brain, obesity, bariatric surgery, appetite control, structural magnetic resonance