The Importance of Scale for Spatial-confounding Bias and Precision of Spatial Regression Estimators

Increasingly, regression models are used when residuals are spatially correlated. Prominent examples include studies in environmental epidemiology to understand the chronic health effects of pollutants. I consider the effects of residual spatial structure on the bias and precision of regression coefficients, developing a simple framework in which to understand the key issues and derive informative analytic results. When the spatial residual is induced by an unmeasured confounder, regression models with spatial random effects and closely-related models such as kriging and penalized splines are biased, even when the residual variance components are known. Analytic and simulation results show how the bias depends on the spatial scales of the covariate and the residual; bias is reduced only when there is variation in the covariate at a scale smaller than the scale of the unmeasured confounding. I also discuss how the scales of the residual and the covariate affect efficiency and uncertainty estimation when the residuals can be considered independent of the covariate. In an application on the association between black carbon particulate matter air pollution and birth weight, controlling for large-scale spatial variation appears to reduce bias from unmeasured confounders, while increasing uncertainty in the estimated pollution effect.

A CASE STUDY IN PHARMACOLOGIC IMAGING USING PRINCIPAL CURVES IN SINGLE PHOTON EMISSION COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY

In this manuscript we are concerned with functional imaging of the colon to assess the kinetics of a microbicide lubricant. The overarching goal is to understand the distribution of the lubricant in the colon. Such information is crucial for understanding the potential impact of the microbicide on HIV viral transmission. The experiment was conducted by imaging a radiolabeled lubricant distributed in the subject’s colon. The tracer imaging was conducted via single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), a non-invasive, in-vivo functional imaging technique. We develop a novel principal curve algorithm to construct a three dimensional curve through the colon images. The developed algorithm is tested and debugged on several difficult two dimensional images of familiar curves where the original principal curve algorithm does not apply. The final curve fit to the colon data is compared with experimental sigmoidoscope collection.

Calibration of a portal imaging device for high-precision dosimetry: a Monte Carlo study

Today electronic portal imaging devices (EPID's) are used primarily to verify patient positioning. They have, however, also the potential as 2D-dosimeters and could be used as such for transit dosimetry or dose reconstruction. It has been proven that such devices, especially liquid filled ionization chambers, have a stable dose response relationship which can be described in terms of the physical properties of the EPID and the pulsed linac radiation. For absolute dosimetry however, an accurate method of calibration to an absolute dose is needed. In this work, we concentrate on calibration against dose in a homogeneous water phantom. Using a Monte Carlo model of the detector we calculated dose spread kernels in units of absolute dose per incident energy fluence and compared them to calculated dose spread kernels in water at different depths. The energy of the incident pencil beams varied between 0.5 and 18 MeV. At the depth of dose maximum in water for a 6 MV beam (1.5 cm) and for a 18 MV beam (3.0 cm) we observed large absolute differences between water and detector dose above an incident energy of 4 MeV but only small relative differences in the most frequent energy range of the beam energy spectra. It is shown that for a 6 MV beam the absolute reference dose measured at 1.5 cm water depth differs from the absolute detector dose by 3.8%. At depth 1.2 cm in water, however, the relative dose differences are almost constant between 2 and 6 MeV. The effects of changes in the energy spectrum of the beam on the dose responses in water and in the detector are also investigated. We show that differences larger than 2% can occur for different beam qualities of the incident photon beam behind water slabs of different thicknesses. It is therefore concluded that for high-precision dosimetry such effects have to be taken into account. Nevertheless, the precise information about the dose response of the detector provided in this Monte Carlo study forms the basis of extracting directly the basic radiometric quantities photon fluence and photon energy fluence from the detector's signal using a deconvolution algorithm. The results are therefore promising for future application in absolute transit dosimetry and absolute dose reconstruction.

Confidence Bands for Convex Median Curves using Sign-Tests

Suppose that one observes pairs (x1,Y1), (x2,Y2), ..., (xn,Yn), where x1 < x2 < ... < xn are fixed numbers while Y1, Y2, ..., Yn are independent random variables with unknown distributions. The only assumption is that Median(Yi) = f(xi) for some unknown convex or concave function f. We present a confidence band for this regression function f using suitable multiscale sign tests. While the exact computation of this band seems to require O(n4) steps, good approximations can be obtained in O(n2) steps. In addition the confidence band is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties as the sample size n tends to infinity.

High precision range estimation techniques for multi-path wireless environments

Range estimation is the core of many positioning systems such as radar, and Wireless Local Positioning Systems (WLPS). The estimation of range is achieved by estimating Time-of-Arrival (TOA). TOA represents the signal propagation delay between a transmitter and a receiver. Thus, error in TOA estimation causes degradation in range estimation performance. In wireless environments, noise, multipath, and limited bandwidth reduce TOA estimation performance. TOA estimation algorithms that are designed for wireless environments aim to improve the TOA estimation performance by mitigating the effect of closely spaced paths in practical (positive) signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regions. Limited bandwidth avoids the discrimination of closely spaced paths. This reduces TOA estimation performance. TOA estimation methods are evaluated as a function of SNR, bandwidth, and the number of reflections in multipath wireless environments, as well as their complexity. In this research, a TOA estimation technique based on Blind signal Separation (BSS) is proposed. This frequency domain method estimates TOA in wireless multipath environments for a given signal bandwidth. The structure of the proposed technique is presented and its complexity and performance are theoretically evaluated. It is depicted that the proposed method is not sensitive to SNR, number of reflections, and bandwidth. In general, as bandwidth increases, TOA estimation performance improves. However, spectrum is the most valuable resource in wireless systems and usually a large portion of spectrum to support high performance TOA estimation is not available. In addition, the radio frequency (RF) components of wideband systems suffer from high cost and complexity. Thus, a novel, multiband positioning structure is proposed. The proposed technique uses the available (non-contiguous) bands to support high performance TOA estimation. This system incorporates the capabilities of cognitive radio (CR) systems to sense the available spectrum (also called white spaces) and to incorporate white spaces for high-performance localization. First, contiguous bands that are divided into several non-equal, narrow sub-bands that possess the same SNR are concatenated to attain an accuracy corresponding to the equivalent full band. Two radio architectures are proposed and investigated: the signal is transmitted over available spectrum either simultaneously (parallel concatenation) or sequentially (serial concatenation). Low complexity radio designs that handle the concatenation process sequentially and in parallel are introduced. Different TOA estimation algorithms that are applicable to multiband scenarios are studied and their performance is theoretically evaluated and compared to simulations. Next, the results are extended to non-contiguous, non-equal sub-bands with the same SNR. These are more realistic assumptions in practical systems. The performance and complexity of the proposed technique is investigated as well. This study’s results show that selecting bandwidth, center frequency, and SNR levels for each sub-band can adapt positioning accuracy.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

New technology enables high precision multislit collimators for microbeam radiation therapy

During the past decade microbeam radiation therapy has evolved from preclinical studies to a stage in which clinical trials can be planned, using spatially fractionated, highly collimated and high intensity beams like those generated at the x-ray ID17 beamline of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility. The production of such microbeams typically between 25 and 100 microm full width at half maximum (FWHM) values and 100-400 microm center-to-center (c-t-c) spacings requires a multislit collimator either with fixed or adjustable microbeam width. The mechanical regularity of such devices is the most important property required to produce an array of identical microbeams. That ensures treatment reproducibility and reliable use of Monte Carlo-based treatment planning systems. New high precision wire cutting techniques allow the fabrication of these collimators made of tungsten carbide. We present a variable slit width collimator as well as a single slit device with a fixed setting of 50 microm FWHM and 400 microm c-t-c, both able to cover irradiation fields of 50 mm width, deemed to meet clinical requirements. Important improvements have reduced the standard deviation of 5.5 microm to less than 1 microm for a nominal FWHM value of 25 microm. The specifications of both devices, the methods used to measure these characteristics, and the results are presented.