Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Using adaptive automata in a multi-paradigm programming environment

In this paper the architecture of an experimental multiparadigmatic programming environment is sketched, showing how its parts combine together with application modules in order to perform the integration of program modules written in different programming languages and paradigms. Adaptive automata are special self-modifying formal state machines used as a design and implementation tool in the representation of complex systems. Adaptive automata have been proven to have the same formal power as Turing Machines. Therefore, at least in theory, arbitrarily complex systems may be modeled with adaptive automata. The present work briefly introduces such formal tool and presents case studies showing how to use them in two very different situations: the first one, in the name management module of a multi-paradigmatic and multi-language programming environment, and the second one, in an application program implementing an adaptive automaton that accepts a context-sensitive language.

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Detection of Leptospira spp. in the semen and urine of bulls serologically reactive to Leptospira interrogans serovar hardjo

O presente trabalho avaliou a PCR na detecção de leptospiras em sêmen e urina de dez touros sorologicamente reagentes, comparando seus resultados com aqueles obtidos por outras técnicas de diagnóstico. Foram realizadas duas colheitas de materiais em dias alternados. As amostras de sêmen e de urina foram separadas em alíquotas para visualização direta em microscopia de campo escuro, inoculação em hamsters (apenas para o sêmen), isolamento em meio de cultura e PCR. Nenhum hamster apresentou positividade na prova de soroaglutinação microscópica (SAM); fragmentos de rins e fígado desses animais foram utilizados para a tentativa de isolamento em meio de cultura, sendo positivo o cultivo a partir do rim de hamster inoculado com semen de um touro, e do fígado de hamsters inoculados com o semen de três touros. O isolamento em meio de cultura foi negativo para todas as amostras de sêmen, mas foi positivo para cinco amostras de urina. Na PCR não houve resultado positivo para as amostras de sêmen, e apenas uma amostra de urina apresentou resultado positivo, sendo coincidente com uma das culturas positivas. Não foi possível visualizar leptospiras em nenhuma das amostras por exame direto em microscopia de campo escuro.

Extração do corante reactive blue 19 utilizando tensoativo não iônico

The generation of effluent from the finishing process in textile industry is a serious environmental problem and turned into an object of study in several scientific papers. Contamination with dyes and the presences of substances that are toxic to the environment characterize this difficult treatment effluent. Several processes have already been evaluated to remove and even degrade such pollutants are examples: coagulation-flocculation, biological treatment and advanced oxidative processes, but not yet sufficient to enable the recovery of dye or at least of the recovery agent. An alternative to this problem is the cloud point extraction that involves the application of nonionic surfactants at temperatures above the cloud point, making the water a weak solvent to the surfactant, providing the agglomeration of those molecules around the dyes molecules by affinity with the organic phase. After that, the formation of two phases occurred: the diluted one, poor in dye and surfactant, and the other one, coacervate, with higher concentrations of dye and surfactants than the other one. The later use of the coacervate as a dye and surfactant recycle shows the technical and economic viability of this process. In this paper, the cloud point extraction is used to remove the dye Reactive Blue from the water, using nonionic surfactant nonyl phenol with 9,5 etoxilations. The aim is to solubilize the dye molecules in surfactant, varying the concentration and temperature to study its effects. Evaluating the dye concentration in dilute phase after extraction, it is possible to analyze thermodynamic variables, build Langmuir isotherms, determine the behavior of the coacervate volume for a surfactant concentration and temperature, the distribution coefficient and the dye removal efficiency. The concentration of surfactant proved itself to be crucial to the success of the treatment. The results of removal efficiency reached values of 91,38%, 90,69%, 89,58%, 87,22% and 84,18% to temperatures of 65,0, 67,5, 70,0, 72,5 and 75,0°C, respectively, showing that the cloud point extraction is an efficient alternative for the treatment of wastewater containing Reactive Blue

Effect of therapeutic plasma concentrations of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs on the production of reactive oxygen species by activated rat neutrophils

The release of reactive oxygen specie (ROS) by activated neutrophil is involved in both the antimicrobial and deleterious effects in chronic inflammation. The objective of the present investigation was to determine the effect of therapeutic plasma concentrations of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on the production of ROS by stimulated rat neutrophils. Diclofenac (3.6 µM), indomethacin (12 µM), naproxen (160 µM), piroxicam (13 µM), and tenoxicam (30 µM) were incubated at 37ºC in PBS (10 mM), pH 7.4, for 30 min with rat neutrophils (1 x 10(6) cells/ml) stimulated by phorbol-12-myristate-13-acetate (100 nM). The ROS production was measured by luminol and lucigenin-dependent chemiluminescence. Except for naproxen, NSAIDs reduced ROS production: 58 ± 2% diclofenac, 90 ± 2% indomethacin, 33 ± 3% piroxicam, and 45 ± 6% tenoxicam (N = 6). For the lucigenin assay, naproxen, piroxicam and tenoxicam were ineffective. For indomethacin the inhibition was 52 ± 5% and diclofenac showed amplification in the light emission of 181 ± 60% (N = 6). Using the myeloperoxidase (MPO)/H2O2/luminol system, the effects of NSAIDs on MPO activity were also screened. We found that NSAIDs inhibited both the peroxidation and chlorinating activity of MPO as follows: diclofenac (36 ± 10, 45 ± 3%), indomethacin (97 ± 2, 100 ± 1%), naproxen (56 ± 8, 76 ± 3%), piroxicam (77 ± 5, 99 ± 1%), and tenoxicam (90 ± 2, 100 ± 1%), respectively (N = 3). These results show that therapeutic levels of NSAIDs are able to suppress the oxygen-dependent antimicrobial or oxidative functions of neutrophils by inhibiting the generation of hypochlorous acid.

Inhibition of peroxidase activity and scavenging of reactive oxygen species by astilbin isolated from Dimorphandra mollis (Fabaceae, Caesalpinioideae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Intermediate reactive oxygen and nitrogen from macrophages induced by Brazilian lichens

The activity of ten compounds isolated from Brazilian lichen over the release of hydrogen peroxide and nitric oxide was evaluated in the culture of peritoneal macrophage cells from mice. Salazinic, secalonic A and fumarprotocetraric acids were the compounds that induced the greatest release of H2O2, whereas 12R-usnic and diffractaic acids induced the release of NO. These results indicate that lichen products have potential immunological modulating activities. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Yersinia enterocolitica O : 3 isolated from patients with or without reactive arthritis induces polyclonal activation of B cells and autoantibody production in vivo

The mechanisms by which arthritis-provoking pathogens such as Yersinia enterocolitica interact with the human immune system to produce inflammatory synovitis are not well known. One of the immunomodulating mechanisms used against these pathogens is the polyclonal activation of lymphocytes. In this study, we investigated the extent of the B-lymphocyte activation induced in mice by a strain of Y. enterocolitica O:3 (FCF 526) isolated from a patient with arthritis, and compared it with two other strains, a virulent one (FCF 397[+]) isolated from a patient without arthritis and its plasmidless isogenic pair (FCF397[-]). Also we investigated the production of autoantibodies in mice infected with these different strains. SPF Swiss mice were infected intravenously with a suspension of Y. enterocolitica . Spleen cells were taken on days 7, 14, 21 and 28 after infection and the number of cells secreting nonspecific and specific antibodies of IgG 1 , IgG 2a , IgG 2b , IgG 3 , IgM and IgA isotypes were determined by the ELISPOT technique. The presence of autoantibodies in mouse serum was investigated by the dot-blot assay. The pattern of infection of the three bacterial strains were almost the same. We observed a general increase in the number of nonspecific Ig-secreting cells with all three strains, and the greatest increases observed were in the IgG 2a and IgG 3 isotypes. Only a small fraction of the immunoglobulins detected were antibacterial, suggesting that the rest resulted from polyclonal B cell activation. The strain isolated from the patient with arthritis (FCF526) induced the greatest production of autoantibodies, coinciding with the period in which the greatest activation of nonspecific B lymphocytes was seen. There were no signs of arthritis or inflammation in the joints of the infected animals. Based on our results, we were unable to determine whether there is an association between the arthritogenic capability of Y. enterocolitica and polyclonal activation of B cells.