L'évaluation du risque de récidive chez les agresseurs sexuels adultes

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Percentiles de grasa corporal por bioimpedancia eléctrica en niños y adolescentes de Bogotá, Colombia: Estudio FUPRECOL

Objetivo: Recientemente, se han propuesto varios dispositivos de impedancia bioeléctrica (BIA) para la estimación rápida de la grasa corporal. Sin embargo, no han sido publicadas referencias de grasa corporal para niños y adolescentes en población Colombiana. El objetivo de este estudio fue establecer percentiles de grasa corporal por BIA en niños y adolescentes de Bogotá, Colombia de entre 9 y 17.9 años, pertenecientes al estudio FUPRECOL. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo y transversal, realizado en 2.526 niños y 3.324 adolescentes de entre 9 y 17.9 años de edad, pertenecientes a instituciones educativas oficiales de Bogotá, Colombia. El porcentaje de grasa corporal fue medido con Tanita® Analizador de Composición Corporal (Modelo BF-689), según edad y sexo. Se tomaron medidas de peso, talla, circunferencia de cintura, circunferencia de cadera y estado de maduración sexual por auto-reporte. Se calcularon los percentiles (P3, P10, P25, P50, P75, P90 y P97) y curvas centiles por el método LMS según sexo y edad y se realizó una comparación entre los valores de la CC observados con estándares internacionales. Resultados: Se presentan valores de porcentaje de grasa corporal y las curvas de percentiles. En la mayoría de los grupos etáreos la grasa corporal de las chicas fue mayor a la de los chicos. Sujetos cuyo porcentaje de grasa corporal estaba por encima del percentil 90 de la distribución estándar normal se consideró que tenían un elevado riesgo cardiovascular (chicos desde 23,4-28,3 y chicas desde 31,0-34,1). En general, nuestros porcentajes de grasa corporal fueron inferiores a los valores de Turquía, Alemania, Grecia, España y Reino Unido. Conclusiones: Se presentan percentiles del porcentaje de grasa por BIA según edad y sexo que podrán ser usados de referencia en la evaluación del estado nutricional y en la predicción del riesgo cardiovascular desde edades tempranas.

Cardiovascular risk prediction model development and assessment

The aim of this article is to review the development and assessment of cardiovascular risk prediction models and to discuss the predictive value of a risk factor as well as to introduce new assessment methods to evaluate a risk prediction model. Many cardiovascular risk prediction models have been developed during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an existing model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve has traditionally been used to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. However, recent studies suggest that this method has its limitations and cannot be the sole approach to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker. New assessment methods are being developed to appropriately assess a risk prediction model and they will be gradually used in clinical and epidemiological studies.

Extended supervision of sexual offenders in Australia and New Zealand : differences in implementation across jurisdictions

Australia and New Zealand have joined the movement of many Western societies in recent years to address a perceived gap in public safety by passing legislation allowing for extended supervision of sex offenders in the community after their release from prison. The Australian State of Victoria passed a law similar to that of New Zealand, and both laws have now been in effect for a similar period of time. Yet despite having comparable laws and approximately comparable base populations, there have been 145 extended supervision orders imposed in New Zealand and 20 such orders in Victoria. This article examines the differences in implementation and the underlying procedures used in the two jurisdictions to understand these very different outcomes. Implications for professional practice, ethics, public safety, and policy development are discussed.

Assessment and case conceptualization in sex offender treatment

The assessment of sexual offenders consists of the systematic collection of clinically relevant information in order to detect clinical phenomena or problems and to provide clear treatment targets. The result of this process is a conceptual model, or case formulation, representing the client’s various problems, the hypothesized underlying mechanisms, and their interrelationships. The focus of this article is on the importance of psychological assessment and case formulation in the rehabilitation and management of individuals convicted of sexual offences. First, we make a number of general points about the importance of evidence based assessment and clinical reasoning in case formulation. Second, we review key elements of contemporary sexual offender theory that highlights the heterogeneity evident among sex offenders and the implications for case formulation and treatment planning. Third, we discuss the role of case formulation for risk assessment and management. Finally, we illustrate our major points with a brief case study and conclude with a brief consideration of the value of case formulations.

Is jump risk in iTraxx Sector Indices diversifiable?

The article presents an analysis of jump risks in iTraxx Europe index in a multivariate structural time-series setting for the stochastic process, as well as in the credit default swap (CDS) market. It also examines the rapid development of the credit derivatives market, particularly the CDS market. This analysis found a significant Poisson-distributed jumps in the iTraxx Non-Financials index and its subindices. Based on a statistical analysis, nondiversifiable jump risk strongly exists in the CDS market.

Assessing the risk of suicide at triage

Mental health related presentations to Australian emergency departments are steadily increasing. There is a growing incidence of depression, substance abuse, and other mental illnesses in the Australian population. Mental health problems will contribute 15% of the total world disease burden by 2020. Triage nurses are pivotal to the early detection and management of mental health problems.

The rapid assessment of mental health presentations at triage requires skill, knowledge, experience and confidence. One of the more complex aspects of triage is suicide risk assessment.

An ABC approach to assessing the risk of violence at triage

There is evidence to suggest that the incidence of violent behaviour in the emergency department by patients toward staff is on the rise. As part of the process of determining urgency, triage nurses must assess the risk of violence at point of entry. The risk of violence, that is, behaviour that either involves a threat of physical or psychological harm to one's self or to others, is considered a critical predictor of urgency in mental health triage. A rapid violence risk assessment strategy will be described which can be utilised in emergency department triage.

An integrated theory of sexual offending

This paper represents a first attempt to provide an integrated framework to explain the onset, development, and maintenance of sexual offending. According to the Integrated Theory of Sexual Offending (ITSO), sexual abuse occurs as a consequence of a number of interacting causal variables. We examine the factors that affect brain development (evolution, genetic variations and neurobiology) and ecological factors (social and cultural environment, personal circumstances, physical environment) and discuss how they impact upon core neuropsychological functions underpinning human action. The ITSO then explains how clinical symptoms arise from the interaction between these neurological systems and ecological factors. The capacity of the ITSO to incorporate competing theories of sexual offending is considered, and we end the paper by critically evaluating its usefulness in stimulating research and further theory development.

Mental health-related risk factors for violence : using the evidence to guide mental health triage decision making

Mental health clinicians working in emergency crisis assessment teams or mental health triage roles are required to make rapid and accurate risk assessments. The assessment of violence risk at triage is particularly pertinent to the early identification and prevention of patient violence, and to enhancing the safety of clinical staff and the general public. To date, the evidence base for mental health triage violence risk assessment has been minimal. This study aimed to address this evidence gap by identifying best available evidence for mental health-related risk factors for patientinitiated violence.We conducted a systematic review based on the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia’s methodology for systematic reviews. A total of 6847 studies were retrieved, of which 326 studies met the study inclusion criteria. Of these studies, 277 met inclusion criteria but failed the quality appraisal process, thus a total of 49 studies were included in the final review. The risk factors that achieved the highest evidence grading were predominantly related to dynamic clinical factors immediately observable in the patient’s general appearance, behaviour and speech. These factors included hostility/anger, agitation, thought disturbance, positive symptoms of schizophrenia, suspiciousness and irritability.

Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence

Recent years have seen a consensus emerge regarding the dynamic risk factors that are associated with future violence. These risk factors are now routinely assessed in structured violence risk assessment instruments. They provide a focus for treatment in structured group programmes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to risk-related theoretical issues, whether these dynamic risk factors are causally related or simply correlates of violent offending, or the extent to which they change as a consequence of treatment. More challenging is the lack of evidence to suggest that changes in these dynamic risk factors actually result in reductions in violent offending. In this paper we consider the meaning of the term dynamic risk, arguing that only those factors that, when changed, reduce the likelihood of violent recidivism, can be considered to be truly dynamic. We conclude that few of the violence risk factors commonly regarded as dynamic fulfil this requirement. There is a need to think more critically about assessment findings and treatment recommendations relating to dynamic risk, and conduct research that establishes, rather than assumes, that certain dynamic risk factors are directly related to violence. Some suggestions for advancing knowledge and practice are provided.

Mapping hazard risk: A case study of Ubatuba, Brazil

Steep slopes in subtropical zones are always at risk from landslides. The risk greatly increases when there is rapid, unplanned urban growth. This has happened at Ubatuba on the Brazilian coast - tourism-related development has forced local people into narrow valleys with steep slopes. In this article the authors describe how the hazard risk can be mapped, helping the local authorities to control the problem.

Rapid sample preparation procedure for As speciation in food samples by LC-ICP-MS

This paper describes a rapid method for arsenic (As) speciation by LC-ICP-MS in several types of food samples. Prior to analysis, samples were milled and the As species extracted from biological tissues by sonication in only 2 min with a solution containing MeOH (10%, v/v) plus HNO3 (2%, v/v). As species were separated by LC using an anion exchange column. Method detection limits for AsB, As3+,DMA, MMA and As5+ were 1.3, 0.9, 0.6, 0.7 and 0.8 ng g(-1), respectively. Method accuracy and precision were traceable to Certified Reference Materials SRM1577 bovine liver from the National Institute of Standards and Technology, CE278 mussel tissue from the Institute of Reference Materials and Measurements and DOLT-3 dogfish liver tissue and DORM-3 fish protein from the National Research Council of Canada. Finally, the method was applied to speciate As in food samples (egg, fish muscle, beef and chicken) purchased in Brazilian markets.

The role of myocardial scintigraphy in the assessment of cardiovascular risk in patients with end-stage chronic kidney disease on the waiting list for renal transplantation

The usefulness of stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification in chronic kidney disease remains controversial. We tested the hypothesis that different clinical risk profiles influence the test. We assessed the prognostic value of myocardial scintigraphy in 892 consecutive renal transplant candidates classified into four risk groups: very high (aged epsilon 50 years, diabetes and CV disease), high (two factors), intermediate (one factor) and low (no factor). The incidence of CV events and death was 20 and 18, respectively (median follow-up 22 months). Altered stress testing was associated with an increased probability of cardiovascular events only in intermediate-risk (one risk factor) patients [30.3 versus 10, hazard ratio (HR) 2.37, confidence interval (CI) 1.693.33, P 0.0001]. Low-risk patients did well regardless of scan results. In patients with two or three risk factors, an altered stress test did not add to the already increased CV risk. Myocardial scintigraphy was related to overall mortality only in intermediate-risk patients (HR 2.8, CI 1.55.1, P 0.007). CV risk stratification based on myocardial stress testing is useful only in patients with just one risk factor. Screening may avoid unnecessary testing in 60 of patients, help stratifying for risk of events and provide an explanation for the inconsistent performance of myocardial scintigraphy.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk of patients with arterial hypertension of a public health unit

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cardiovascular risk, using the Framingham risk score, in a sample of hypertensive individuals coming from a public primary care unit. METHODS: The caseload comprised hypertensive individuals according to criteria established by the JNC VII, 2003, of 2003, among 1601 patients followed up in 1999, at the Cardiology and Arterial Hypertension Outpatients Clinic of the Teaching Primary Care Unit, at the Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo. The patients were selected by draw, aged over 20 years, both genders, excluding pregnant women. It was a descriptive, cross-sectional, observational study. The Framingham risk score was used to stratify cardiovascular risk of developing coronary artery disease (death or non-fatal acute myocardial infarction). RESULTS: Age range of 27-79 years ( = 63.2 ± 9.58). Out of 382 individuals studied, 270 (70.7%) were female and 139 (36.4%) were characterized as high cardiovascular risk for presenting diabetes mellitus, atherosclerosis documented by event or procedure. Out of 243 stratified patients, 127 (52.3%) had HDL-C < 50 mg/dL; 210 (86.4%) had systolic blood pressure > 120 mmHg; 46 (18.9%) were smokers; 33 (13.6%) had a high cardiovascular risk. Those added to 139 enrolled directly as high cardiovascular risk, totaled up 172 (45%); 77 (20.2%) of medium cardiovascular risk and 133 (34.8%) of low risk. The highest percentage of high cardiovascular risk individuals was aged over 70 years; those of medium risk were aged over 60 years; and the low risk patients were aged 50 to 69 years. CONCLUSION: The significant number of high and medium cardiovascular risk individuals indicates the need to closely follow them up.