Canine rabies in Australia: a review of preparedness and research needs

Australia is unique as a populated continent in that canine rabies is exotic, with only one likely incursion in 1867. This is despite the presence of a widespread free-ranging dog population, which includes the naturalized dingo, feral domestic dogs and dingo-dog cross-breeds. To Australia's immediate north, rabies has recently spread within the Indonesian archipelago, with outbreaks occurring in historically free islands to the east including Bali, Flores, Ambon and the Tanimbar Islands. Australia depends on strict quarantine protocols to prevent importation of a rabid animal, but the risk of illegal animal movements by fishing and recreational vessels circumventing quarantine remains. Predicting where rabies will enter Australia is important, but understanding dog population dynamics and interactions, including contact rates in and around human populations, is essential for rabies preparedness. The interactions among and between Australia's large populations of wild, free-roaming and restrained domestic dogs require quantification for rabies incursions to be detected and controlled. The imminent risk of rabies breaching Australian borders makes the development of disease spread models that will assist in the deployment of cost-effective surveillance, improve preventive strategies and guide disease management protocols vitally important. Here, we critically review Australia's preparedness for rabies, discuss prevailing assumptions and models, identify knowledge deficits in free-roaming dog ecology relating to rabies maintenance and speculate on the likely consequences of endemic rabies for Australia.

Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment.

Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs' roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.

Ophthalmic epidemiology in Europe: the "European Eye Epidemiology" (E3) consortium.

The European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium is a recently formed consortium of 29 groups from 12 European countries. It already comprises 21 population-based studies and 20 other studies (case-control, cases only, randomized trials), providing ophthalmological data on approximately 170,000 European participants. The aim of the consortium is to promote and sustain collaboration and sharing of data and knowledge in the field of ophthalmic epidemiology in Europe, with particular focus on the harmonization of methods for future research, estimation and projection of frequency and impact of visual outcomes in European populations (including temporal trends and European subregions), identification of risk factors and pathways for eye diseases (lifestyle, vascular and metabolic factors, genetics, epigenetics and biomarkers) and development and validation of prediction models for eye diseases. Coordinating these existing data will allow a detailed study of the risk factors and consequences of eye diseases and visual impairment, including study of international geographical variation which is not possible in individual studies. It is expected that collaborative work on these existing data will provide additional knowledge, despite the fact that the risk factors and the methods for collecting them differ somewhat among the participating studies. Most studies also include biobanks of various biological samples, which will enable identification of biomarkers to detect and predict occurrence and progression of eye diseases. This article outlines the rationale of the consortium, its design and presents a summary of the methodology.

Taxonomy, phylogeny and molecular epidemiology of Echinococcus multilocularis: From fundamental knowledge to health ecology.

Alveolar echinococcosis, caused by the tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis, is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in humans and represents one of the 17 neglected diseases prioritised by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in 2012. Considering the major medical and veterinary importance of this parasite, the phylogeny of the genus Echinococcus is of considerable importance; yet, despite numerous efforts with both mitochondrial and nuclear data, it has remained unresolved. The genus is clearly complex, and this is one of the reasons for the incomplete understanding of its taxonomy. Although taxonomic studies have recognised E. multilocularis as a separate entity from the Echinococcus granulosus complex and other members of the genus, it would be premature to draw firm conclusions about the taxonomy of the genus before the phylogeny of the whole genus is fully resolved. The recent sequencing of E. multilocularis and E. granulosus genomes opens new possibilities for performing in-depth phylogenetic analyses. In addition, whole genome data provide the possibility of inferring phylogenies based on a large number of functional genes, i.e. genes that trace the evolutionary history of adaptation in E. multilocularis and other members of the genus. Moreover, genomic data open new avenues for studying the molecular epidemiology of E. multilocularis: genotyping studies with larger panels of genetic markers allow the genetic diversity and spatial dynamics of parasites to be evaluated with greater precision. There is an urgent need for international coordination of genotyping of E. multilocularis isolates from animals and human patients. This could be fundamental for a better understanding of the transmission of alveolar echinococcosis and for designing efficient healthcare strategies.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study.

BACKGROUND Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.

Pitfalls of practicing cancer epidemiology in resource-limited settings: the case of survival and loss to follow-up after a diagnosis of Kaposi's sarcoma in five countries across sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND Survival after diagnosis is a fundamental concern in cancer epidemiology. In resource-rich settings, ambient clinical databases, municipal data and cancer registries make survival estimation in real-world populations relatively straightforward. In resource-poor settings, given the deficiencies in a variety of health-related data systems, it is less clear how well we can determine cancer survival from ambient data. METHODS We addressed this issue in sub-Saharan Africa for Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), a cancer for which incidence has exploded with the HIV epidemic but for which survival in the region may be changing with the recent advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART). From 33 primary care HIV Clinics in Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Nigeria and Cameroon participating in the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Consortia in 2009-2012, we identified 1328 adults with newly diagnosed KS. Patients were evaluated from KS diagnosis until death, transfer to another facility or database closure. RESULTS Nominally, 22% of patients were estimated to be dead by 2 years, but this estimate was clouded by 45% cumulative lost to follow-up with unknown vital status by 2 years. After adjustment for site and CD4 count, age <30 years and male sex were independently associated with becoming lost. CONCLUSIONS In this community-based sample of patients diagnosed with KS in sub-Saharan Africa, almost half became lost to follow-up by 2 years. This precluded accurate estimation of survival. Until we either generally strengthen data systems or implement cancer-specific enhancements (e.g., tracking of the lost) in the region, insights from cancer epidemiology will be limited.

Descriptive epidemiology of cancer in three regions of Kazakhstan

The current study investigated data quality and estimated cancer incidence and mortality rates using data provided by Pavlodar, Semipalatinsk and Ust-Kamenogorsk Regional Cancer Registries of Kazakhstan during the period of 1996–1998. Assessment of data quality was performed using standard quality indicators including internal database checks, proportion of cases verified from death certificates only, mortality:incidence ratio, data patterns, proportion of cases with unknown primary site, proportion of cases with unknown age. Crude and age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated, by gender, for all cancers combined and for 28 specific cancer sites for each year of the study period. The five most frequent cancers were identified and described for every population. The results of the study provide the first simultaneous assessment of data quality and standardized incidence and mortality rates for Kazakh cancer registries. ^

Psychiatric Epidemiology and Neuroscience Unite in the Pursuit of Reformulated Schizophrenia Nosologies

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The epidemiology of Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C virus infection among college students who are not US/Canadian born in Houston

Introduction. A vast majority of studies conducted in both developed and developing nations have focused on the epidemiology of HBV (Hepatitis B virus) and HCV (Hepatitis C virus) in high-risk populations; low-risk populations have been neglected. Recently Hwang et al conducted a unique large cross-sectional study in American university students that focused on cosmetic procedures and drug use for acquiring these infections among a low-risk young adult population In Houston. ^ Methods. This study is a secondary data analysis of the cross-sectional study conducted by Hwang et al. Data for this anonymous study were collected from 7,960 college students, among whom were the 2,561 non US/Canadian born students included in this study. All students completed a self-administered questionnaire and provided a blood sample. The epidemiology of HBV/HCV and risk factors for acquiring HBV/HCV infection was studied by comparing those with HBV/HCV infection versus those without. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the data. ^ Results. Overall prevalence of HBV and HCV infections were 22% and 0.8% respectively. By multivariable analysis, the factors that were independently associated with increased prevalence of HBV infection were increasing age per year (OR=1.06, 95% C.I=1.04-1.08), Black or Asian race (OR=6.21, 95% C.I=3.14-12.27), history of household contact with hepatitis (OR=1.87, 95% C.I=1.15-3.05), and having sexual partner with hepatitis (OR=5.20, 95% C.I=1.5-18.00). For HCV these factors included increasing age per year (OR= 1.08, 95% C.I=1.03-1.14), history of blood transfusion prior to 1991 (OR=25.45, 95% C.I=7.58-85.40), and Injection drug use. (OR=78.15, 95% C.I=12.19-500.85). Cosmetic procedures like tattooing were not significant risk factors for either HBV or HCV infection. ^ Conclusions. In a low-risk adult foreign born population, cosmetic procedures are not significant risk factors for HBV or HCV infection. The prevention strategies of these infections in this population should focus on safe sexual practices/abstinence and HBV vaccination should be provided to adolescents and sexually active adults. ^

Changing epidemiology of trauma deaths leads to a bimodal distribution

Introduction. Injury mortality was classically described with a tri-modal distribution, with immediate deaths at the scene, early deaths due to hemorrhage, and late deaths from organ failure. We hypothesized that trauma systems development have improved pre-hospital care, early resuscitation, and critical care, and altered this pattern. ^ Methods. This is a population-based study of all trauma deaths in an urban county with a mature trauma system (n=678, median age 33 years, 81% male, 43% gunshot, 20% motor vehicle crashes). Deaths were classified as immediate (scene), early (in hospital, ≤ 4 hours from injury), or late (>4 hours post injury). Multinomial regression was used to identify independent predictors of immediate and early vs. late deaths, adjusted for age, gender, race, intention, mechanism, toxicology and cause of death. ^ Results. There were 416 (61%) immediate, 199 (29%) early, and 63 (10%) late deaths. Immediate deaths remained unchanged and early deaths occurred much earlier (median 52 minutes vs. 120). However, unlike the classic trimodal distribution, there was no late peak. Intentional injuries, alcohol intoxication, asphyxia, and injuries to the head and chest were independent predictors of immediate deaths. Alcohol intoxication and injuries to the chest were predictors of early deaths, while pelvic fractures and blunt assaults were associated with late deaths. ^ Conclusion. Trauma deaths now have a bimodal distribution. Elimination of the late peak likely represents advancements in resuscitation and critical care that have reduced organ failure. Further reductions in mortality will likely come from prevention of intentional injuries, and injuries associated with alcohol intoxication. ^

Epidemiology of isolated obstructive genitourinary defect in Texas: 1999--2003

Background. Obstructive genitourinary defects include all anomalies causing obstruction anywhere along the urinary tract. Previous studies have noted a large excess of males among infants affected by these types of defects. This is the first epidemiologic study focused solely on obstructive genitourinary defects (OGD). ^ Methods. Data on 1,683 mild and 302 severe cases of isolated OGD born between 1999 and 2003 and ascertained by the Texas Birth Defects Registry were compared to all births in Texas during the same time period. Adjusted prevalence odds ratios (POR) were calculated for infant sex, birth weight, gestational age, mother’s race/ethnicity, mother’s age, mother’s education, parity, birth year, start of prenatal care, multiple birth, and public health region of birth. Severe cases were defined as those cases that died prior to birth, died after birth, or underwent surgery for OGD in the first year of life. Cases of OGD that had other major birth defects besides OGD were excluded from this study. ^ Results. Severe cases of OGD were more likely than mild cases to have multiple obstructive genitourinary anomalies (37.8% vs. 18.9%) and bilateral defects (40.9% vs. 31.3%). Males had a significantly greater risk of OGD than females for both severe and mild cases: adjusted POR = 3.26 (95% CI = 2.45-4.33) and adjusted POR = 2.60 (95% CI = 2.33-2.90), respectively. Infants with both severe and mild OGD were more likely to be very preterm birth at birth compared with infants without OGD: crude POR of 16.19 (95% CI = 10.60-24.74) and 4.75 (95% CI = 3.54-6.37), respectively. Among the severe group, minority races had a decreased risk of OGD with an adjusted POR of 0.74 (95% CI = 0.55-0.98) compared with whites. Among the mild cases, increased rates of OGD were found in older mothers (adjusted POR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.05-1.15), college/higher educated mothers (adjusted POR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01-1.13) and multiple births (adjusted POR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.01-1.62). There was also a decreased risk of mild cases among black mothers compared to whites (adjusted POR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.52-0.76). Compared to 1999, the prevalence of mild cases of OGD increased significantly over the 5 year study period with an adjusted POR of 1.10 (95% CI = 1.06-1.15) by 2003. ^ Conclusion. Risk factors of OGD for both severe and mild forms were male sex and preterm birth. Severe cases were more likely to have multiple OGD defects and be affected bilaterally. An increase in prevalence of mild cases of OGD over time and differences in rates of black, older, and higher educated mothers in mild cases may be attributed to ultrasound use. ^