Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint

I reconsider the short-term effects of fiscal policy when both government spending and taxes are allowed to respond to the level of public debt. I embed the long-term government budget constraint in a VAR, and apply this common trends model to US quarterly data. The results overturn some widely held beliefs on fiscal policy effects. The main finding is that expansionary fiscal policy has contractionary effects on output and inflation. Ricardian effects may dominate when fiscal expansions are expected to be adjusted by future tax rises or spending cuts. The evidence supports RBC models with distortionary taxation. We can discard some alternative interpretations that are based on monetary policy reactions or supply-side effects.

Fiscal sustainability across government tiers: an assessment of soft budget constraints

This paper analyses how fiscal adjustment comes about when both central and sub-national governments are involved in consolidation. We test sustainability of public debt with a fiscal rule for both the federal and regional government. Results for the German Länder show that lower tier governments bear a relatively smaller part of the burden of debt consolidation, if they consolidate at all. Most of the fiscal adjustment occurs via central government debt. In contrast, both the US federal and state levels contribute to consolidation of public finances.

Impact of maternity care policy in Catalonia: a retrospective cross-sectional study of service delivery in public and private hospitals

Background: As a result of the growing number of interventions that are now performed in the context of maternity care, health authorities have begun to examine the possible repercussions for service provision and for maternal and neonatal health. In Spain the Strategy Paper on Normal Childbirth was published in 2008, and since then the authorities in Catalonia have sought to implement its recommendations. This paper reviews the current provision of maternity care in Catalonia. Methods: This was a descriptive study. Hospitals were grouped according to their source of funding (public or private) and were stratified (across four strata) on the basis of the annual number of births recorded within their respective maternity service. Data regarding the distribution of obstetric professionals were taken from an official government survey of hospitals published in 2010. The data on obstetric interventions (caesarean, use of forceps, vacuum or non-specified instruments) performed in 2007, 2010 and 2012 were obtained by consulting discharge records of 44 public and 20 private hospitals, which together provide care in 98% of all births in Catalonia. Proportions and confidence intervals were calculated for each intervention performed in all full-term (3742 weeks) singleton births. Results: Analysis of staff profiles according to the stratification of hospitals showed that almost all the hospitals had more obstetricians than midwives among their maternity care staff. Public hospitals performed fewer caesareans [range between 19.20% (CI 18.84-19.55) and 28.14% (CI 27.73-28.54)] than did private hospitals [range between 32.21% (CI 31.78-32.63) and 39.43% (CI 38.98-39.87)]. The use of forceps has decreased in public hospitals. The use of a vacuum extractor has increased and is more common in private hospitals. Conclusions: Caesarean section is the most common obstetric intervention performed during full-term singleton births in Catalonia. The observed trend is stable in the group of public hospitals, but shows signs of a rise among private institutions. The number of caesareans performed in accredited public hospitals covers a limited range with a stable trend. Among public hospitals the highest rate of caesareans is found in non-accredited hospitals with a lower annual number of births.

Impact of maternity care policy in Catalonia: a retrospective cross-sectional study of service delivery in public and private hospitals

Background: As a result of the growing number of interventions that are now performed in the context of maternity care, health authorities have begun to examine the possible repercussions for service provision and for maternal and neonatal health. In Spain the Strategy Paper on Normal Childbirth was published in 2008, and since then the authorities in Catalonia have sought to implement its recommendations. This paper reviews the current provision of maternity care in Catalonia. Methods: This was a descriptive study. Hospitals were grouped according to their source of funding (public or private) and were stratified (across four strata) on the basis of the annual number of births recorded within their respective maternity service. Data regarding the distribution of obstetric professionals were taken from an official government survey of hospitals published in 2010. The data on obstetric interventions (caesarean, use of forceps, vacuum or non-specified instruments) performed in 2007, 2010 and 2012 were obtained by consulting discharge records of 44 public and 20 private hospitals, which together provide care in 98% of all births in Catalonia. Proportions and confidence intervals were calculated for each intervention performed in all full-term (3742 weeks) singleton births. Results: Analysis of staff profiles according to the stratification of hospitals showed that almost all the hospitals had more obstetricians than midwives among their maternity care staff. Public hospitals performed fewer caesareans [range between 19.20% (CI 18.84-19.55) and 28.14% (CI 27.73-28.54)] than did private hospitals [range between 32.21% (CI 31.78-32.63) and 39.43% (CI 38.98-39.87)]. The use of forceps has decreased in public hospitals. The use of a vacuum extractor has increased and is more common in private hospitals. Conclusions: Caesarean section is the most common obstetric intervention performed during full-term singleton births in Catalonia. The observed trend is stable in the group of public hospitals, but shows signs of a rise among private institutions. The number of caesareans performed in accredited public hospitals covers a limited range with a stable trend. Among public hospitals the highest rate of caesareans is found in non-accredited hospitals with a lower annual number of births.

Gambling in Spain: update on experience, research and policy

AIMS: To describe the current situation of gambling in Spain, sketching its history and discussing the regulations and legislation currently in force within the framework of the European Union (EU), and to review the epidemiology of gambling in Spain, the self-help groups and professional treatments available, and their potential effectiveness. METHODS: A systematic computerized search was performed in three databases (EMBASE, PubMed and PsychINFO, including articles and chapters) and the reference lists from previous reviews to obtain some of the most relevant studies published up to now on the topic of pathologic gambling in Spain. RESULTS: Similar to other EU countries, Spain has a high prevalence of pathologic gambling, focused on specific culturally bounded types of gambling. Expenditure in online gaming has risen significantly in the last few years, prompting the Spanish government to draft new legislation to regulate gaming. CONCLUSIONS: The gaming industry is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in Spain in the coming years owing to the rise of new technologies and the development of online gaming

Maritime Safety in the Gulf of Finland. Review on Policy Instruments

Suomenlahden lisääntynyt meriliikenne on herättänyt huolta meriliikenteen turvallisuuden tasosta, ja erityisesti Venäjän öljyviennin kasvu on lisännyt öljyonnettomuuden todennäköisyyttä Suomenlahdella. Erilaiset kansainväliset, alueelliset ja kansalliset ohjauskeinot pyrkivät vähentämään merionnettomuuden riskiä ja meriliikenteen muita haittavaikutuksia. Tämä raportti käsittelee meriturvallisuuden yhteiskunnallisia ohjauskeinoja: ohjauskeinoja yleisellä tasolla, meriturvallisuuden keskeisimpiä säätelijöitä, meriturvallisuuden ohjauskeinoja ja meriturvallisuuspolitiikan tulevaisuuden näkymiä, ohjauskeinojen tehokkuutta ja nykyisen meriturvallisuuden ohjausjärjestelmän heikkouksia. Raportti on kirjallisuuskatsaus meriturvallisuuden yhteiskunnalliseen sääntelyn rakenteeseen ja tilaan erityisesti Suomenlahden meriliikenteen näkökulmasta. Raportti on osa tutkimusprojektia ”SAFGOF - Suomenlahden meriliikenteen kasvunäkymät 2007 - 2015 ja kasvun vaikutukset ympäristölle ja kuljetusketjujen toimintaan” ja sen työpakettia 6 ”Keskeisimmät riskit ja yhteiskunnalliset vaikutuskeinot”. Yhteiskunnalliset ohjauskeinot voidaan ryhmitellä hallinnollisiin, taloudellisiin ja tietoohjaukseen perustuviin ohjauskeinoihin. Meriturvallisuuden edistämisessä käytetään kaikkia näitä, mutta hallinnolliset ohjauskeinot ovat tärkeimmässä asemassa. Merenkulun kansainvälisen luonteen vuoksi meriturvallisuuden sääntely tapahtuu pääosin kansainvälisellä tasolla YK:n ja erityisesti Kansainvälisen merenkulkujärjestön (IMO) toimesta. Lisäksi myös Euroopan Unionilla on omaa meriturvallisuuteen liittyvää sääntelyä ja on myös olemassa muita alueellisia meriturvallisuuden edistämiseen liittyviä elimiä kuten HELCOM. Joitakin meriturvallisuuden osa-alueita säädellään myös kansallisella tasolla. Hallinnolliset meriturvallisuuden ohjauskeinot sisältävät aluksen rakenteisiin ja varustukseen, alusten kunnon valvontaan, merimiehiin ja merityön tekemiseen sekä navigointiin liittyviä ohjauskeinoja. Taloudellisiin ohjauskeinoihin kuuluvat esimerkiksi väylä- ja satamamaksut, merivakuutukset, P&I klubit, vastuullisuus- ja korvauskysymykset sekä taloudelliset kannustimet. Taloudellisten ohjauskeinojen käyttö meriturvallisuuden edistämiseen on melko vähäistä verrattuna hallinnollisten ohjauskeinojen käyttöön, mutta niitä voitaisiin varmasti käyttää enemmänkin. Ongelmana taloudellisten ohjauskeinojen käytössä on se, että ne kuuluvat pitkälti kansallisen sääntelyn piiriin, joten alueellisten tai kansainvälisten intressien edistäminen taloudellisilla ohjauskeinoilla voi olla hankalaa. Tieto-ohjaus perustuu toimijoiden vapaaehtoisuuteen ja yleisen tiedotuksen lisäksi tieto-ohjaukseen sisältyy esimerkiksi vapaaehtoinen koulutus, sertifiointi tai meriturvallisuuden edistämiseen tähtäävät palkinnot. Poliittisella tasolla meriliikenteen aiheuttamat turvallisuusriskit Suomenlahdella on otettu vakavasti ja paljon työtä tehdään eri tahoilla riskien minimoimiseksi. Uutta sääntelyä on odotettavissa etenkin liittyen meriliikenteen ympäristövaikutuksiin ja meriliikenteen ohjaukseen kuten meriliikenteen sähköisiin seurantajärjestelmiin. Myös inhimilliseen tekijän merkitykseen meriturvallisuuden kehittämisessä on kiinnitetty lisääntyvissä määrin huomiota, mutta inhimilliseen tekijän osalta tehokkaiden ohjauskeinojen kehittäminen näyttää olevan haasteellista. Yleisimmin lääkkeeksi esitetään koulutuksen kehittämistä. Kirjallisuudessa esitettyjen kriteereiden mukaan tehokkaiden ohjauskeinojen tulisi täyttää seuraavat vaatimukset: 1) tarkoituksenmukaisuus – ohjauskeinojen täytyy olla sopivia asetetun tavoitteen saavuttamiseen, 2) taloudellinen tehokkuus – ohjauskeinon hyödyt vs. kustannukset tulisi olla tasapainossa, 3) hyväksyttävyys – ohjauskeinon täytyy olla hyväksyttävä asianosaisten ja myös laajemman yhteiskunnan näkökulmasta katsottuna, 4) toimeenpano – ohjauskeinon toimeenpanon pitää olla mahdollista ja sen noudattamista täytyy pystyä valvomaan, 5) lateraaliset vaikutukset – hyvällä ohjauskeinolla on positiivisia seurannaisvaikutuksia muutoinkin kuin vain ohjauskeinon ensisijaisten tavoitteiden saavuttaminen, 6) kannustin ja uuden luominen – hyvä ohjauskeino kannustaa kokeilemaan uusia ratkaisuja ja kehittämään toimintaa. Meriturvallisuutta koskevaa sääntelyä on paljon ja yleisesti ottaen merionnettomuuksien lukumäärä on ollut laskeva viime vuosikymmenien aikana. Suuri osa sääntelystä on ollut tehokasta ja parantanut turvallisuuden tasoa maailman merillä. Silti merionnettomuuksia ja muita vaarallisia tapahtumia sattuu edelleen. Nykyistä sääntelyjärjestelmää voidaan kritisoida monen asian suhteen. Kansainvälisen sääntelyn aikaansaaminen ei ole helppoa: prosessi on yleensä hidas ja tuloksena voi olla kompromissien kompromissi. Kansainvälinen sääntely on yleensä reaktiivista eli ongelmakohtiin puututaan vasta kun jokin onnettomuus tapahtuu sen sijaan että se olisi proaktiivista ja pyrkisi puuttumaan ongelmakohtiin jo ennen kuin jotain tapahtuu. IMO:n työskentely perustuu kansallisvaltioiden osallistumiseen ja sääntelyn toimeenpano tapahtuu lippuvaltioiden toimesta. Kansallisvaltiot ajavat IMO:ssa pääasiallisesti omia intressejään ja sääntelyn toimeenpanossa on suuria eroja lippuvaltioiden välillä. IMO:n kyvyttömyys puuttua havaittuihin ongelmiin nopeasti ja ottaa sääntelyssä huomioon paikallisia olosuhteita on johtanut siihen, että esimerkiksi Euroopan Unioni on alkanut itse säädellä meriturvallisuutta ja että on olemassa sellaisia alueellisia erityisjärjestelyjä kuin PSSA (particularly sensitive sea area – erityisen herkkä merialue). Merenkulkualalla toimii monenlaisia yrityksiä: toisaalta yrityksiä, jotka pyrkivät toimimaan turvallisesti ja kehittämään turvallisuutta vielä korkeammalle tasolle, ja toisaalta yrityksiä, jotka toimivat niin halvalla kuin mahdollista, eivät välitä turvallisuusseikoista, ja joilla usein on monimutkaiset ja epämääräiset omistusolosuhteet ja joita vahingon sattuessa on vaikea saada vastuuseen. Ongelma on, että kansainvälisellä merenkulkualalla kaikkien yritysten on toimittava samoilla markkinoilla. Vastuuttomien yritysten toiminnan mahdollistavat laivaajat ja muut alan toimijat, jotka suostuvat tekemään yhteistyötä niiden kanssa. Välinpitämätön suhtautuminen turvallisuuteen johtuu osaksi myös merenkulun vanhoillisesta turvallisuuskulttuurista. Verrattaessa meriturvallisuuden sääntelyjärjestelmää kokonaisuutena tehokkaiden ohjauskeinoihin kriteereihin, voidaan todeta, että monien kriteerien osalta nykyistä järjestelmää voidaan pitää tehokkaana ja onnistuneena. Suurimmat ongelmat lienevät sääntelyn toimeenpanossa ja ohjauskeinojen kustannustehokkuudessa. Lippuvaltioiden toimeenpanoon perustuva järjestelmä ei toimi toivotulla tavalla, josta mukavuuslippujen olemassa olo on selvin merkki. Ohjauskeinojen, sekä yksittäisten ohjauskeinojen että vertailtaessa eri ohjauskeinoja keskenään, kustannustehokkuutta on usein vaikea arvioida, minkä seurauksena ohjauskeinojen kustannustehokkuudesta ei ole saatavissa luotettavaa tietoa ja tuloksena voi olla, että ohjauskeino on käytännössä pienen riskin eliminoimista korkealla kustannuksella. Kansainvälisen tason meriturvallisuus- (ja merenkulku-) politiikan menettelytavoiksi on ehdotettu myös muita vaihtoehtoja kuin nykyinen järjestelmä, esimerkiksi monitasoista tai polysentristä hallintojärjestelmää. Monitasoisella hallintojärjestelmällä tarkoitetaan järjestelmää, jossa keskushallinto on hajautettu sekä vertikaalisesti alueellisille tasoille että horisontaalisesti ei-valtiollisille toimijoille. Polysentrinen hallintojärjestelmä menee vielä askeleen pidemmälle. Polysentrinen hallintojärjestelmä on hallintotapa, jonka puitteissa kaikentyyppiset toimijat, sekä yksityiset että julkiset, voivat osallistua hallintoon, siis esimerkiksi hallitukset, edunvalvontajärjestöt, kaupalliset yritykset jne. Kansainvälinen lainsäädäntö määrittelee yleiset tasot, mutta konkreettiset toimenpiteet voidaan päättää paikallisella tasolla eri toimijoiden välisessä yhteistyössä. Tämän tyyppisissä hallintojärjestelmissä merenkulkualan todellinen, kansainvälinen mutta toisaalta paikallinen, toimintaympäristö tulisi otetuksi paremmin huomioon kuin järjestelmässä, joka perustuu kansallisvaltioiden keskenään yhteistyössä tekemään sääntelyyn. Tällainen muutos meriturvallisuuden hallinnassa vaatisi kuitenkin suurta periaatteellista suunnanmuutosta, jollaisen toteutumista ei voi pitää kovin todennäköisenä ainakaan lyhyellä tähtäimellä.

New threats - old routines : bureaucratic adaptability in the security policy environment

Within the framework of state security policy, the focus of this dissertation are the relations between how new security threats are perceived and the policy planning and bureaucratic implementation that are designed to address them. In addition, this thesis explores and studies some of the inertias that might exist in the core of the state apparatus as it addresses new threats and how these could be better managed. The dissertation is built on five thematic and interrelated articles highlighting different aspects of when new significant national security threats are detected by different governments until the threats on the policy planning side translate into protective measures within the society. The timeline differs widely between different countries and some key aspects of this process are also studied. One focus concerns mechanisms for adaptability within the Intelligence Community, another on the policy planning process within the Cabinet Offices/National Security Councils and the third focus is on the planning process and how policy is implemented within the bureaucracy. The issue of policy transfer is also analysed, revealing that there is some imitation of innovation within governmental structures and policies, for example within the field of cyber defence. The main findings of the dissertation are that this context has built-in inertias and bureaucratic seams found in most government bureaucratic machineries. As much of the information and planning measures imply security classification of the transparency and internal debate on these issues, alternative assessments become limited. To remedy this situation, the thesis recommends ways to improve the decision-making system in order to streamline the processes involved in making these decisions. Another special focus of the thesis concerns the role of the public policy think tanks in the United States as an instrument of change in the country’s national security decision-making environment, which is viewed from the perspective as being a possible source of new ideas and innovation. The findings in this part are based on unique interviews data on how think tanks become successful and influence the policy debate in a country such as the United States. It appears clearly that in countries such as the United States think tanks smooth the decision making processes, and that this model with some adaptations also might be transferrable to other democratic countries.

Still the century of government savings banks? The Caixa Econômica Federal

This article explores general concerns about government banking, social inclusion, and democracy through case study of the Brazilian federal government savings bank (Caixa Econômica Federal). Review of government savings banks in Brazilian history suggests that these institutions have been at the center of domestic political economy, expanding and contracting under a variety of political regimes and economic conditions. Since capitalization to meet central bank and Basel Accord guidelines in 2001, the Caixa has attempted to modernize, continue to serve as agent for government policies, and expand both popular credit and savings and investment banking activities.

The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the Brazilian experience

This paper attempts to explain why the Brazilian inter-bank interest rate is so high compared with rates practiced by other emerging economies. The interplay between the markets for bank reserves and government securities feeds into the inter-bank rate the risk premium of the Brazilian public debt.

Building climate justice : an analysis of how the nexus between climate change and human rights shapes public policy agendas and alternatives

This thesis provides an analysis of how the nexus between climate change and human rights shapes public policy agendas and alternatives. It draws upon seminal work conducted by John Kingdon, whose landmark publication “Agendas, alternatives, and public policy” described how separate streams of problems, solutions, and politics converge to move an issue onto the public policy agenda toward potential government action. Building on Kingdon’s framework, this research explores how human rights contribute to surfacing the problem of climate change; developing alternative approaches to tackling climate change; and improving the political environment necessary for addressing climate change with sufficient ambition. The study reveals that climate change undermines the realization of human rights and that human rights can be effective tools in building climate resilience. This analysis was developed using a mixed methods approach and drawing upon substantial literature review, the researcher’s own participation in international climate policy design; elite interviews with thought leaders dealing with climate change and human rights; and regular inputs from focus groups comprised of practitioners drawn from the fields of climate change, development and human rights. This is a journal based thesis with a total of six articles submitted for evaluation, published in peer‐reviewed publications, over a five year period. Denna avhandling analyserar hur klimatfrågan och mänskliga rättigheter i samverkan formar den politiska agendan och det politiskt möjliga. Den bygger på banbrytande forskning av John Kingdon, vars publikation “Agendas, alternatives, and public policy” beskriver hur en fråga blir politiskt viktig och lyfts upp på den politiska agendan. Med utgångspunkt i Kingdons ramverk, utforskar avhandlingen hur mänskliga rättigheter bidrar till att blottlägga klimatfrågan som problem; utveckla alternativa metoder för att angripa och hantera klimatfrågan; samt skapa ett politiskt klimat nödvändigt för att på ett ambitiöst sätt kunna angripa klimatfrågan. Studien visar att klimatförändringar undergräver mänskliga rättigheterna men att arbete med mänskliga rättigheter kan vara ett effektivt verktyg för att stå emot och hantera effekterna av klimatförändringar. Analysen har genomförts med hjälp av en rad olika metoder vilka inkluderar litteraturstudier, författarens egna observationer under klimatförhandlingar; intervjuer med ledande tänkare inom klimatfrågan och mänskliga rättigheter; samt data insamlad genom fokusgrupper bestående av yrkesverksamma inom klimat, utveckling och mänskliga rättigheter. Avhandlingen är baserad på totalt sex artiklar som publicerats i fackgranskade tidskrifter under en femårsperiod.

Fiscal policy and private investment: latin america in a comparative perspective

The main objective of the paper is to assess the impact of fiscal variables on private investment comparing some Latin-American economies to other advanced ones. For such purposes, the authors carry out an econometric analysis for the period 1990-2008. They make use of two dynamic panel models in which they group countries with similar characteristics and development levels. In one of them, they include Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay; whereas in the second one the countries accounted for are the U.S., Canada, Spain, Korea, Ireland and Japan. They specify in both models an investment function using as arguments a wide range of variables, including those related with fiscal policy. From their results the authors infer that governments can, with higher spending, boost up the economy even when they finance spending with higher taxes. In Latin America, where income concentration is enormous, a proposal to boost up the economy through higher government expenditure financed with a progressive income tax, is even more justified.

Minsky on "Big Government"

This paper objective is to assess, in light of the main works of Minsky, his view and analysis of what he called the "Big Government" as that huge institution which, in parallels with the "Big Bank" was capable of ensuring stability in the capitalist system and regulate its inherently unstable financial system in mid-20th century. In this work, we analyze how Minsky proposes an active role for the government in a complex economic system flawed by financial instability.

A year after Crimea: continuity and change of Finnish-Russian relations reflected in the views of the government officials of Finland and Russia

This thesis discusses the dynamism of bilateral relations between Finland and Russia and their interconnection with wider EU-Russia relations in the sight of the recent conflict in Ukraine. In particular, incorporation of Crimea in the territory of Russia in March 2014 is believed to have triggered a series of disputes between the European Union and Russia and thus, have impacted the course of the bilateral Finnish-Russian relations. The study leans on a premise that there are some historical traditions and regularities in the Finnish foreign policy course towards Russia which make the bilateral Finnish-Russian relations special. These traditions are distinguished and described in the book “Russia Forever? Towards Pragmatism in Finnish/Russian relations” (2008) edited by H. Rytövuori-Apunen. Assuming that the featured traditions take place in modern relations between Finland and Russia, the aim of the thesis is to find out how these traditions reappear during the year shaped by the events in Ukraine. In order to do that, author follows the timeline of happenings around the Ukraine crisis starting with Crimea’s referendum on independence, and exams the way these events were commented on and evaluated by the key government officials and political institutions of Finland and Russia. The main focus is given to the Finnish official discourse on Russia during the study period. The data collection, consisting of mostly primary sources (ministerial press releases and comments, statements, speeches and blog posts of individual policy makers) is processed using the thematic analysis supported by the content analysis. The study reveals that the consequences of the Ukraine crisis have brought, among others, complications to the economic cooperation between Finland and Russia, and have stimulated the increased attention of the Finnish decision makers to the country’s security questions. As a result, the character and importance of some historical regularities of the Finnish foreign policies on Russia, like the Continental Dilemma, have taken new shape.

From Fordism to neoconservatism : free trade and Canadian industrial policy in an era of globalism /

Nothing today affects the lives of people in countries throughout the industrialized and developing world as much as international trade. Nowhere is this more true than in Canada. Canada's involvement in international trade has a long history dating back to 1854 when it was a British colony. As a major trading country, Canada has always adopted a proactive industrial policy which has been largely responsible for its relative economic prosperi ty. But, wi th businesses now free to invest and divest under the terms of the CUFTA and the NAFTA, the most fundamental concerns for Canadians, in a borderless world, are what powers will the Canadian government have to shape industrial policy, and to what extent can Canada continue as a viable nationstate if it can no longer control its national economy? These are important concerns because, in world without borders, the adjustment process becomes more volatile and more difficult to manage. The CUFTA and the NAFTA not only create the rules for conducting trade, but they also establish a set of new rules for the Canadian government that will diminish its power. As a member of a new North American trading bloc, Canada will find itself subject to a set of forces requiring analysis beyond participation in a conventional free trade area. Because many of the traditional levers of government will now be subject to external control imposed by these agreements, Canada will not be able to mount certain policies in the future that it has relied on in the past. This reality limits the pro-active role of the Canadian state to use policies and programmes for the country's immediate national development. What this thesis attempts is an examination of the evolution of Canadian industrial policy, in effect, the transi tion from Fordism to Neoconservatism, and an assessment of Canada's future as a nation-state as it tries to find security and improved access in a free trade arrangement. Unless Canada takes steps to neutralize the asymmetry of power between itself and the United States through adjustment programmes, it is the contention of this thesis that its economic future is anything but stable.

Aging policy: a case study of co-ordination in Canadian governments

ABSTRACT Canada is an aging society. The number of people aged sixty-five and over is rising, while the number of people under twenty is declining. These two concurrent changes in the age structure have produced a sh~ft in the demographic composition of Canada which is commonly referred to as the aging phenomenon. Regardless of whether or not the number of people under twenty continues to decline, the number of elderly in Canada will almost double over the next twenty years. This rapidly growing elderly clientele will doubtless have an impact on Canadian governments. Federal, provincial and municipal governments are presently providing a variety of programs that have a special bearing on the aged and most senior citizens are beneficiaries of one or more of these programs. The ramifications of a rapidly growing elderly clientele are obvious. In order to cope with the impact of a significant increase in the number of elderly persons, the development and implementation of aging policy must be co-ordinated at each level of government and between and among levels of government. If aging policy is not co-ordinated, the results are likely to be: inappropriate policy decisions; duplication and overlap; and, ineffective and irresponsive services. No one benefits from these results. The need for co-ordination is apparent. The purpose of this thesis is to examine existing governmental efforts to co-ordinate policy in the field of aging. These efforts are examined by focusing on interactions directed at co-ordination between and among major actors in aging policy. A framework is used to structure the description and analysis of these interactions. The variables of formalisation and intensity and the concept of power are instrumental in analysing interactions for co-ordination. The underlying intent of this thesis is to discover some of the main gaps in existing governmental efforts to co~ordinate aging policy. Gaps are, in fact, discovered. Several explanations for the existence of gaps in interactions for co-ordination are discussed. A major hypothesis involving a relationship between a bureaucratic form of organisation and interactions for coordination is suggested. Finally, three recommendations for improving co-ordination in aging policy are offered.