Back to the failure: an analytic narrative of the De Lorean debacle

There has been a recent identification of a need for a New Business History. This discussion connects with the analytic narrative approach. By following this approach, the study of business history provides important implications for the conduct and institutional design of contemporary industrial policy. The approach also allows us to solve historical puzzles. The failure of the De Lorean Motor Company Limited (DMCL) is one specific puzzle. Journalistic accounts that focus on John De Lorean's alleged personality defects as an explanation for this failure miss the crucial institutional component. Moreover, distortions in the rewards associated with industrial policy, and the fact that the objectives of the institutions implementing the policy were not solely efficiency-based, led to increased opportunities for rent-seeking. Political economy solves the specific puzzle; by considering institutional dimensions, we can also solve the more general puzzle of why activist industrial policy was relatively unsuccessful in Northern Ireland.

Pratiques parentales coercitives, anxiété et traitement de la peur chez les jeunes en bonne santé: corrélats neuronaux, biologiques, physiologiques et comportementaux

L’adversité tôt dans la vie est associée au développement de symptômes anxieux pouvant perdurer jusqu’à l’âge adulte (Casey et el, 2010, Pine 2003). Des études chez l’adulte suggèrent que ces liens pourraient être associés à des altérations du « circuit de la peur » qui inclut l’amygdale, l’hippocampe antérieur, l’insula et le cortex préfrontal (Marek, 2013, Etkin & Wager, 2007). Ceci a cependant peu été étudié chez les jeunes. L’objectif principal de cette thèse était de définir les corrélats comportementaux, physiologiques, biologiques et neuronaux du traitement de la peur chez les jeunes en bonne santé, en lien ou non avec un historique d’adversité -- sous la forme de pratiques parentales coercitives -- et d’anxiété. D’abord, puisque nous nous intéressions aux pratiques parentales coercitives chroniques, nous avons examiné leur évolution et facteurs de risque, en nous concentrant sur la période de 17 à 72 mois. Un total de 2045 dyades mère-enfant ont été incluses dans une analyse de courbe de croissance latente. Nous avons démontré que la coercition maternelle suit une évolution non linéaire durant cette période et atteint un sommet à 42 mois. Les facteurs de risque relatifs à l’enfant et à la mère, mesurés à 17 mois, permettent de prédire les niveaux de coercition à 42 mois. Finalement, les prédicteurs relatifs à l’enfant et l’efficacité maternelle prédisent l’évolution des pratiques parentales coercitives entre 17 et 72 mois. Ensuite, afin de définir une méthodologie solide pour étudier le traitement de la peur chez des jeunes, nous avons adapté une tâche développée par Lau et ses collaborateurs (2008), employant des visages féminins comme stimuli. Le sexe des participants et des visages employés comme stimuli pouvant potentiellement moduler le traitement de la peur (Kret & de Gelder, 2012; McClure, 2000), nous avons étudié leurs influences respectives sur les réponses électrodermales et subjectives de peur durant le conditionnement et l’extinction de la peur chez 117 jeunes. Nous avons démontré que les stimuli féminins suscitent des réponses davantage comparables entre les garçons et les filles que les stimuli masculins. De plus, nous avons observé un effet du « même sexe », caractérisé par un conditionnement différentiel uniquement face aux stimuli du même sexe que le participant. Finalement, nous avons exploré les différences individuelles et conjointes associées aux différents niveaux de pratiques parentales coercitives et d’anxiété en termes de réponses de peur et d’activité cérébrale, durant le conditionnement et l’extinction de la peur chez 84 jeunes. Nous avons démontré que la coercition est spécifiquement associée au fonctionnement du lobe temporal médian et aux interactions entre l’amygdale et l’insula, durant le conditionnement. Durant l’extinction, les niveaux d’anxiété étaient associés à des différences spécifiques d’activation du gyrus cingulaire antérieur (GCA) dorsal. Enfin, les pratiques parentales coercitives et l’anxiété interagissent et viennent moduler la connectivité fonctionnelle amygdale - GCA rostral, l’activation d’une sous-région du GCA dorsal et les réponses subjectives de peur. Ces résultats ajoutent une pièce au casse-tête des neurosciences développementales et fournissent des pistes intéressantes pour le développement d’interventions futures.

Exploring the World's Visual History

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The Meanings of New Money: Social Constructions of Value in the Rise of Digital Currencies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Building peace by supporting post-conflict electoral processes

Les élections post-conflit ou élections de sortie de crise organisées sous l’égide de la communauté internationale en vue de rétablir la paix dans les pays sortant de violents conflits armés ont un bilan mixte caractérisé par le succès ou l’échec selon les cas. Ce bilan mitigé représente le problème principal auquel cette recherche tente de répondre à travers les questions suivantes : l’assistance électorale étrangère est-elle efficace comme outil de rétablissement de la paix dans les sociétés post-conflit? Qu’est ce qui détermine le succès ou l’échec des élections post-conflit à contribuer efficacement au rétablissement de la paix dans les sociétés déchirées par la guerre? Pour résoudre cette problématique, cette thèse développe une théorie de l’assistance électorale en période post-conflit centrée sur les parties prenantes à la fois du conflit armé et du processus électoral. Cette théorie affirme que l’élément clé pour le succès des élections post-conflit dans le rétablissement de la paix est le renforcement de la capacité de négociation des parties prenantes à la fois dans le processus de paix et dans le processus électoral post-conflit. Dans les situations post-conflit, une assistance électorale qui se voudrait complète et efficace devra combiner à la fois le processus électoral et le processus de paix. L’assistance électorale sera inefficace si elle se concentre uniquement sur les aspects techniques du processus électoral visant à garantir des élections libres, transparentes et équitables. Pour être efficace, l’accent devra également être mis sur les facteurs supplémentaires qui peuvent empêcher la récurrence de la guerre, tels que l’habilité des individus et des groupes à négocier et à faire des compromis sur les grandes questions qui peuvent menacer le processus de paix. De fait, même des élections transparentes comme celles de 1997 au Liberia saluées par la communauté internationale n’avaient pas réussi à établir des conditions suffisantes pour éviter la reprise des hostilités. C’est pourquoi, pour être efficace, l’assistance électorale dans les situations de post-conflit doit prendre une approche globale qui priorise l’éducation civique, la sensibilisation sur les droits et responsabilités des citoyens dans une société démocratique, le débat public sur les questions qui divisent, la participation politique, la formation au dialogue politique, et toute autre activité qui pourrait aider les différentes parties à renforcer leur capacité de négociation et de compromis. Une telle assistance électorale fera une contribution à la consolidation de la paix, même dans le contexte des élections imparfaites, comme celles qui se sont détenues en Sierra Leone en 2002 ou au Libéria en 2005. Bien que la littérature sur l’assistance électorale n’ignore guère l’importance des parties prenantes aux processus électoraux post-conflit (K. Kumar, 1998, 2005), elle a fortement mis l’accent sur les mécanismes institutionnels. En effet, la recherche académique et professionnelle est abondante sur la réforme des lois électorales, la reforme constitutionnelle, et le développement des administrations électorales tels que les commissions électorales, ainsi que l’observation électorale et autres mécanismes de prévention de la fraude électorale, etc. (Carothers & Gloppen, 2007). En d’autres termes, les décideurs et les chercheurs ont attribué jusqu’à présent plus d’importance à la conception et au fonctionnement du cadre institutionnel et des procédures électorales. Cette thèse affirme qu’il est désormais temps de prendre en compte les participants eux-mêmes au processus électoral à travers des types d’assistance électorale qui favoriseraient leur capacité à participer à un débat pacifique et à trouver des compromis aux questions litigieuses. Cette approche plus globale de l’assistance électorale qui replace l’élection post-conflit dans le contexte plus englobant du processus de paix a l’avantage de transformer le processus électoral non pas seulement en une expérience d’élection de dirigeants légitimes, mais aussi, et surtout, en un processus au cours duquel les participants apprennent à régler leurs points de vue contradictoires à travers le débat politique dans un cadre institutionnel avec des moyens légaux et légitimes. Car, si le cadre institutionnel électoral est important, il reste que le résultat du processus électoral dépendra essentiellement de la volonté des participants à se conformer au cadre institutionnel et aux règles électorales.

A Cultural Approach to a Canadian Tragedy: The Indian Residential Schools as a Sacred Enterprise

For over a century, the Canadian state funded a church-run system of residential schools designed to assimilate Aboriginal children into Euro-Canadian culture. In addition to the problems associated with its ethnocentric philosophy, the school system was also characterised by terrible health conditions and physical and sexual abuse of the students was widespread. Recently, the schools have been the object of the most successful struggle for redress in Canadian history. One particularly puzzling aspect about the school system is that it persisted for so long, despite that many of its failings were known very early in its operation. In this article, this puzzle is addressed via a cultural analysis of a political struggle over the residential schools that occurred within Canadian Anglicanism at the outset of the twentieth century. The article concludes that the meaning of the school system as a sacred enterprise contributed to its persistence.

What Does Value Matter? The Interest-Relational Theory of the Semantics and Metaphysics of Value

Value and reasons for action are often cited by rationalists and moral realists as providing a desire-independent foundation for normativity. Those maintaining instead that normativity is dependent upon motivation often deny that anything called '"value" or "reasons" exists. According to the interest-relational theory, something has value relative to some perspective of desire just in case it satisfies those desires, and a consideration is a reason for some action just in case it indicates that something of value will be accomplished by that action. Value judgements therefore describe real properties of objects and actions, but have no normative significance independent of desires. It is argued that only the interest-relational theory can account for the practical significance of value and reasons for action. Against the Kantian hypothesis of prescriptive rational norms, I attack the alleged instrumental norm or hypothetical imperative, showing that the normative force for taking the means to our ends is explicable in terms of our desire for the end, and not as a command of reason. This analysis also provides a solution to the puzzle concerning the connection between value judgement and motivation. While it is possible to hold value judgements without motivation, the connection is more than accidental. This is because value judgements are usually but not always made from the perspective of desires that actually motivate the speaker. In the normal case judgement entails motivation. But often we conversationally borrow external perspectives of desire, and subsequent judgements do not entail motivation. This analysis drives a critique of a common practice as a misuse of normative language. The "absolutist" attempts to use and, as philosopher, analyze normative language in such a way as to justify the imposition of certain interests over others. But these uses and analyses are incoherent - in denying relativity to particular desires they conflict with the actual meaning of these utterances, which is always indexed to some particular set of desires.

Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Kim jestem? Kim się staję? Od praktyki do teorii

W artykule w zakresie metody teologiczno-fundamentalnej przedstawione zostały następujące główne zagadnienia. 1. Konspekt edukacyjno-psychologicznych warsztatów, 2. Uzasadnienie metodyczne i metodologiczne przyjętej konstrukcji. W konspekcie szczegółowo opisane zostały kolejne kroki, które powinien podjąć prowadzący z pewnymi sugestiami ku czemu dane działania prowadzą. Szerzej zostały podane wnioski, do których prowadzący powinien podprowadzić uczestników warsztatów w obszarze teologii fundamentalnej – jako pomoc w poszukiwaniach celu, całości i sensu – wykorzystano elementy psychologii, filozofii, teologii duchowości. Procedura ćwiczeń przeprowadza uczestnika od pytań o samego siebie do pytań o siebie poprzez relacje z drugim, tak by uświadomić mu możliwość kontaktu z Drugim. W dalszej części przedstawienia opisano próbę odpowiedzi na pytanie „Co było potrzebne, od strony metody, by ten konspekt mógł powstać?” Koniecznym było skonstruowanie swoistej metafory i opracowano narrację, które razem stały się hipotezą wyjaśniającą obejmującą szerokie spektrum badanych relacji, pomiędzy konspektem i procesem jego powstawania a jego twórcą, procesem przeprowadzonych warsztatów a czytelnikiem, prowadzącym warsztaty a uczestnikiem. Na zakończenie przedstawiono ewaluację przeprowadzonych warsztatów.

Education in occupational health psychology: Where have we been, where are we now and where are we going?

At the first full conference of the European Academy of Occupational Health Psychology (Lund, 1999), the decision was ratified to organise activities around three fora. These together represented the pillars on which the European Academy had been founded that same year: education, research and professional practice. Each forum was convened by a chair person and a small group of full members; it was agreed that a forum meeting would take place at each full conference and working groups would be established to move developments forward between conferences. The forum system has proven an effective means by which to channel the energies of individual members, and the institutions that they represent, towards advancements in all three areas of activity in occupational health psychology (OHP) in Europe. During the meeting of the education forum at the third full European Academy conference (Barcelona, 2001), the proposal was made for the establishment of a working party that would be tasked with the production of a strategy document on The Promotion of Education in Occupational Health Psychology in Europe. The proposal was ratified at the subsequent annual business meeting held during the same conference. The draft outline of the strategy document was published for consultation in the European Academy’s e-newsletter (Vol. 3.1, 2002) and the final document presented to the meeting of the education forum at the fourth full conference (Vienna, 2002). The strategy document constituted a seminal piece of literature in so far as it provided a foundation and structure capable of guiding pan-European developments in education in OHP – developments that would ensure the sustained growth of the discipline and assure it of a long-standing embedded place in both the scholarly and professional domains. To these ends, the strategy document presented six objectives as important for the sustained expansion and the promotion of education in the discipline in Europe. Namely, the development of: [1] A core syllabus for education in occupational health psychology [2] A mechanism for identifying, recognising and listing undergraduate and postgraduate modules and courses (programmes) in occupational health psychology [3] Structures to support the extension of the current provision of education in occupational health psychology [4] Ways of enhancing convergence of the current provision of education in occupational health psychology [5] Ways of encouraging regional cooperation between education providers across the regions of Europe [6] Ways of ensuring consistency with North American developments in education and promoting world wide co-operation in education Five years has elapsed since the presentation of these laudable objectives to the meeting of the education forum in Vienna in December 2002. In that time OHP has undergone considerable growth, particularly in Europe and North America. Expansion has been reflected in the evolution of existing, and emergence of new, representative bodies for the discipline on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. As such, it might be considered timely to pause to reflect on what has been achieved in respect of each of the objectives set out in the strategy document. The current chapter examines progress on the six objectives and considers what remains to be done. This exercise is entered into not merely in order to congratulate achievements in some areas and lament slow progress in others. Rather, on the one hand it serves to highlight areas where real progress has been made with a view to the presentation of these areas as ripe for further capitalisation. On the other hand it serves to direct the attention of stakeholders (all those with a vested interest in OHP) to those key parts of the jigsaw puzzle that is the development of a self-sustaining pan-European education framework which remain to be satisfactorily addressed.

Pratiques parentales coercitives, anxiété et traitement de la peur chez les jeunes en bonne santé: corrélats neuronaux, biologiques, physiologiques et comportementaux

L’adversité tôt dans la vie est associée au développement de symptômes anxieux pouvant perdurer jusqu’à l’âge adulte (Casey et el, 2010, Pine 2003). Des études chez l’adulte suggèrent que ces liens pourraient être associés à des altérations du « circuit de la peur » qui inclut l’amygdale, l’hippocampe antérieur, l’insula et le cortex préfrontal (Marek, 2013, Etkin & Wager, 2007). Ceci a cependant peu été étudié chez les jeunes. L’objectif principal de cette thèse était de définir les corrélats comportementaux, physiologiques, biologiques et neuronaux du traitement de la peur chez les jeunes en bonne santé, en lien ou non avec un historique d’adversité -- sous la forme de pratiques parentales coercitives -- et d’anxiété. D’abord, puisque nous nous intéressions aux pratiques parentales coercitives chroniques, nous avons examiné leur évolution et facteurs de risque, en nous concentrant sur la période de 17 à 72 mois. Un total de 2045 dyades mère-enfant ont été incluses dans une analyse de courbe de croissance latente. Nous avons démontré que la coercition maternelle suit une évolution non linéaire durant cette période et atteint un sommet à 42 mois. Les facteurs de risque relatifs à l’enfant et à la mère, mesurés à 17 mois, permettent de prédire les niveaux de coercition à 42 mois. Finalement, les prédicteurs relatifs à l’enfant et l’efficacité maternelle prédisent l’évolution des pratiques parentales coercitives entre 17 et 72 mois. Ensuite, afin de définir une méthodologie solide pour étudier le traitement de la peur chez des jeunes, nous avons adapté une tâche développée par Lau et ses collaborateurs (2008), employant des visages féminins comme stimuli. Le sexe des participants et des visages employés comme stimuli pouvant potentiellement moduler le traitement de la peur (Kret & de Gelder, 2012; McClure, 2000), nous avons étudié leurs influences respectives sur les réponses électrodermales et subjectives de peur durant le conditionnement et l’extinction de la peur chez 117 jeunes. Nous avons démontré que les stimuli féminins suscitent des réponses davantage comparables entre les garçons et les filles que les stimuli masculins. De plus, nous avons observé un effet du « même sexe », caractérisé par un conditionnement différentiel uniquement face aux stimuli du même sexe que le participant. Finalement, nous avons exploré les différences individuelles et conjointes associées aux différents niveaux de pratiques parentales coercitives et d’anxiété en termes de réponses de peur et d’activité cérébrale, durant le conditionnement et l’extinction de la peur chez 84 jeunes. Nous avons démontré que la coercition est spécifiquement associée au fonctionnement du lobe temporal médian et aux interactions entre l’amygdale et l’insula, durant le conditionnement. Durant l’extinction, les niveaux d’anxiété étaient associés à des différences spécifiques d’activation du gyrus cingulaire antérieur (GCA) dorsal. Enfin, les pratiques parentales coercitives et l’anxiété interagissent et viennent moduler la connectivité fonctionnelle amygdale - GCA rostral, l’activation d’une sous-région du GCA dorsal et les réponses subjectives de peur. Ces résultats ajoutent une pièce au casse-tête des neurosciences développementales et fournissent des pistes intéressantes pour le développement d’interventions futures.

Programación de videojuegos de puzzles en 2D usando Unity: tutorial y ejemplo práctico del juego.

Unity3d es un motor gráfico para la implementación de videojuegos creado por Unity3d Technologies que tiene el honor de ser una de las principales herramientas que propició el auge de los estudios independientes. Pese a estar enfocado al desarrollo de videojuegos en 3D, los desarrolladores lograban crear contenido en 2D a base de manipulaciones como la cámara y de utilizar herramientas no nativas. Afortunadamente, a partir de la versión 4.3 Unity3d integra herramientas nativas que facilitan esta tarea. Este proyecto consiste en la creación de un tutorial sobre la implementación de un videojuego del género puzles en 2D y enfocado a plataformas móviles, empleando para ello Unity3d y concretamente las nuevas herramientas nativas para 2D. La implementación de un videojuego es una tarea muy complicada y extensa, es por ello que en el tutorial se va a tratar la fase de diseño del videojuego y a nivel de implementación centrarse en dichas herramientas para el 2D, mostrando al final una versión jugable del videojuego implementado. Por otra parte, al ser numerosas las herramientas, es imposible tratar cada una de las herramientas aunque se intentará abarcar lo máximo posible y mencionar las que no se incluyan dentro de la implementación del videojuego. El resultado generado de este proyecto puede constituir una referencia para otras personas interesadas en aprender cómo usar Unity3d para programar videojuegos en 2D, lo cual les allanará seguramente el camino y les suavizará la curva de aprendizaje.

Provable Security for Cryptocurrencies

The past several years have seen the surprising and rapid rise of Bitcoin and other “cryptocurrencies.” These are decentralized peer-to-peer networks that allow users to transmit money, tocompose financial instruments, and to enforce contracts between mutually distrusting peers, andthat show great promise as a foundation for financial infrastructure that is more robust, efficientand equitable than ours today. However, it is difficult to reason about the security of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is a complex system, comprising many intricate and subtly-interacting protocol layers. At each layer it features design innovations that (prior to our work) have not undergone any rigorous analysis. Compounding the challenge, Bitcoin is but one of hundreds of competing cryptocurrencies in an ecosystem that is constantly evolving. The goal of this thesis is to formally reason about the security of cryptocurrencies, reining in their complexity, and providing well-defined and justified statements of their guarantees. We provide a formal specification and construction for each layer of an abstract cryptocurrency protocol, and prove that our constructions satisfy their specifications. The contributions of this thesis are centered around two new abstractions: “scratch-off puzzles,” and the “blockchain functionality” model. Scratch-off puzzles are a generalization of the Bitcoin “mining” algorithm, its most iconic and novel design feature. We show how to provide secure upgrades to a cryptocurrency by instantiating the protocol with alternative puzzle schemes. We construct secure puzzles that address important and well-known challenges facing Bitcoin today, including wasted energy and dangerous coalitions. The blockchain functionality is a general-purpose model of a cryptocurrency rooted in the “Universal Composability” cryptography theory. We use this model to express a wide range of applications, including transparent “smart contracts” (like those featured in Bitcoin and Ethereum), and also privacy-preserving applications like sealed-bid auctions. We also construct a new protocol compiler, called Hawk, which translates user-provided specifications into privacy-preserving protocols based on zero-knowledge proofs.

THERE GOES THE ELECTORAL NEIGHBORHOOD: LOCAL NETWORKS, ATTRIBUTION OF RESPONSIBILITY, AND THE (UN) FAIRNESS OF ELECTIONS

During the last two decades there have been but a handful of recorded cases of electoral fraud in Latin America. However, survey research consistently shows that often citizens do not trust the integrity of the electoral process. This dissertation addresses the puzzle by explaining the mismatch between how elections are conducted and how the process is perceived. My theoretical contribution provides a double-folded argument. First, voters’ trust in their community members (“the local experience”) impacts their level of confidence in the electoral process. Since voters often find their peers working at polling stations, negative opinions about them translate into negative opinions about the election. Second, perceptions of unfairness of the system (“the global effect”) negatively impact the way people perceive the transparency of the electoral process. When the political system fails to account for social injustice, citizens lose faith in the mechanism designed to elect representatives -and ultimately a set of policies. The fact that certain groups are systematically disregarded by the system triggers the notion that the electoral process is flawed. This is motivated by either egotropic or sociotropic considerations. To test these hypotheses, I employ a survey conducted in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala during May/June 2014, which includes a population-based experiment. I show that Voters who trust their peers consistently have higher confidence in the electoral process. Whereas respondents who were primed about social unfairness (treatment) expressed less confidence in the quality of the election. Finally, I find that the local experience is predominant over the global effect. The treatment has a statistically significant effect only for respondents who trust their community. Attribution of responsibility for voters who are skeptics of their peers is clear and simple, leaving no room for a more diffuse mechanism, the unfairness of the political system. Finally, now I extend analysis to the Latin America region. Using data from LAPOP that comprises four waves of surveys in 22 countries, I confirm the influence of the “local experience” and the “global effect” as determinants of the level of confidence in the electoral process.

Crises and Crisis Generations: International Conflict and Military Participation in Politics

Why do states facing high levels of international threat sometimes have militaries that are heavily involved in politics and at other times relatively apolitical, professional militaries? I argue that the answer to this puzzle lies in a state's history of 'acute' international crises rather than its 'chronic' threat environment. Major international crises lead to professionalization and de-politicization of militaries in both the short- and long-term. International crises underscore the need for the military to defend the state and highlight military deficiencies in this regard. Accordingly, major international crises lead to military professionalization and withdrawal from politics in order to increase military effectiveness. This effect persists years, and decades, later due to generational shifts in the officer corps. As the "Crisis Generation" of officers become generals, they bring with them a preference for professionalization and de-politicization. They guide the military towards abstention from politics. I test this theory using a new global dataset on military officers in national governing bodies from 1964-2008 and find strong support for the theory. Major international crises lead to two waves of military withdrawal from government, years apart. Further statistical analysis finds that this effect is most strongly felt in the non-security areas of governing, while in some cases, international crises may lead to militaries increasing their involvement in security policy-making. Further, international crises that end poorly for a state — i.e., defeats or stalemates — are found to drive more rapid waves of military withdrawal from government. The statistical analysis is supported by a case illustration of civil-military relations in the People's Republic of China, which demonstrates that the crisis of the Korean War (1950-53) led to two waves of military professionalization and de-politicization, decades apart. The first occurred immediately after the war. The second wave, occurring in the 1980s, involved wholesale military withdrawal from governing bodies, which was made possible by the ascent of the "Crisis Generation" of officers in the military, who had served as junior officers in the Korean War, decades prior.