Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/ decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHGinduced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lower stratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values and before the Antarctic. None of the CCMs predict future large decreases in the Arctic column ozone. By 2100, total column ozone is projected to be substantially above 1980 values in all regions except in the tropics.

Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry‐climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Scientists and the cultural politics of academic disciplines in late 19th-century Germany: Emil Du Bois-Reymond and the controversy over the role of the cultural sciences

This article is concerned with interactions between the natural and the human sciences. It examines a specific late 19th-century episode in their relationship and argues that the schism between the two branches of knowledge was due to cognitive factors, but consolidated through the social dynamics of institutionalized disciplines. It contends that the assignment of a social function to the human sciences to compensate for the self-destructive tendencies inherent in the technological society was expressed even by those, at the end of the 19th century, who were fervent advocates of a science- and technology-driven modernization.

Managing in the middle: a review of the mddle management experience in the 21st century

Downsizing and organisational restructuring have impacted both the role and the number of middle managers in organisations. .This paper provides a review of recent research on middle management to seek an understanding of the current situation for middle managers as they face the start of the 2rt century. The literature review is presented in two parts - focusing on the position of middle managers as they emerge from downsizing, and drawing attention to the special circumstances for managers "in the middle". The research points to some of the challenges middle managers' experience as they work, live, and survive organisational life, as well as highlighting the need for ongoing investigation of their individual experiences.

Qabus ibn Wushmagir : a study of rhythm patterns in Arabic epistolary prose from the 4th century AH (10th century AD)

This study focuses on the Arabic prose style of Qabus ibn Wushmagir, a Persian ruler of the 4th century AH (10th century AD). Through a textual analysis of a selection of his letters it identifies some fascinating rhythmical patterns using the statistical technique of log-linear modelling. The quantitative analyses are based specifically on syllable patterns in the texts which are evaluated according to the theme of each letter. The study concludes that in some letter types in particular there is a certain predictability in the rhythmical patterns of the text which indicate that the style of a given piece was determined to some degree by the theme of the letter.

Research methodologies in creative practice : literacy in the digital age of the twenty first century - learning from computer games

Literacy remains one of the central goals of schooling, but the ways in which it is understood are changing. The growth of the networked society, and the spread of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), has brought about significant changes to traditional forms of literacy. Older, print based forms now take their place alongside a mix of newer multi-modal forms, where a wide range of elements such as image, sound, movement, light, colour and interactivity often supplant the printed word and contribute to the ways in which meaning is made. For young people to be fully literate in the twenty-first century, they need to have clear understandings about the ways in which these forms of literacy combine to persuade, present a point of view, argue a case or win the viewers’ sympathies. They need to know how to use them themselves, and to be aware of the ways in which others use them. They need to understand how digital texts organise and prioritise knowledge and information, and to recognise and be critically informed about the global context in which this occurs. That is, to be effective members of society, students need to become critical and capable users of both print and multimodal literacy, and be able to bring informed and analytic perspectives to bear on all texts, both print and digital, that they encounter in everyday life.

This is part of schools’ larger challenge to build robust connections between school and the world beyond, to meet the needs of all students, and to counter problems of alienation and marginalisation, particularly amongst students in the middle years. This means finding ways to be relevant and useful for all students, and to provide them with the skills and knowledge they will need in the ICT-based world of the Twentyfirst century. With respect to literacy education, engagement and technology, we urgently need more information as to how this might be best achieved.

Returning to an external debate: the terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century

Includes bibliography

Palaeotsunami imprints in the near-coast sedimentary records of the Gulfs of Lakonia and Argolis (Peloponnese, Greece)

From historical accounts it is well-known that the coasts of the Gulfs of Lakonia and Argolis (southern and eastern Peloponnese, Greece) have been repeatedly affected by tsunamis during historical times. It is assumed that these palaeotsunamis left sedimentological and geomorphological traces in the geological record which are still detectable these days. As both gulfs are located within one of the seismically most active regions in whole western Eurasia in particular the nearby Hellenic Trench is regarded as the main trigger for tsunami generation. Against this background, selected near-coast sedimentary archives were studied by means of sedimentological, geomorphological, geophysical, geochemical and microfaunal investigations in order to detect signatures of Holocene palaeotsunamigenic activity. The investigations revealed allochthonous sediment layers featuring distinctive sedimentary characteristics of marine high-energy event deposits in most of the investigated study areas. In order to differentiate between the geomorphodynamic driving mechanisms for the deposition of the associated marine high-energy event layers, a multi-method approach was used. The detected high-energy marine deposits are suggested to be of tsunamigenic origin. Radiocarbon dating results allowed establishing local event geo-chronostratigraphies and correlations on a local and regional scale as well as correlations with already described palaeotsunami findings on a supra-regional scale. The geochronological dataset attests repeated tsunamigenic activity at least since the 5th millennium BC up to the 17th century AD. For the studied areas in southeastern Lakonia up to four palaeotsunami event generations were identified, for central Lakonia three and for the investigated areas around the Argolis Gulf also up to four. Comparing the findings with literature data, chronological correlations were found with palaeotsunami deposits detected in near-coast geological archives of Akarnania, of the southwestern, the western and northwestern Peloponnese, with event deposits found on Crete and on the Ionian Islands of Cefalonia and Lefkada as well as with findings from southeastern Sicily (Italy) and Cesarea (Israel). By the identification of multiple palaeotsunami event layers, disturbing autochthonous near-coast sedimentary records of the Gulfs of Lakonia and Argolis during the last seven millennia, a significant tsunami frequency is attested for these regions.

Latin Sources of Inspiration for 15th and 16th Century Orthodox Prints

The project studied the history of Orthodox graphic art in the context of artistic links between the Eastern and Western worlds, tracing the routes by which iconographic models from western Europe penetrated into eastern Europe and underscoring the role of central European countries in the shaping of the culture of the modern Orthodox church. One important element was the identification of graphic prototypes and export routes for woodcutting blocks which travelled from Germany via Prague, Cracow and Vilnius to Moscow and Kiev, revealing the artistic ties between followers of different religions. Another major element was a study of the appearance of copper engraving in the second half of the 17th century.

Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

In this study, we use IP and alkenone biomarker proxies to document the subdecadal variations of sea ice and sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic induced by the decadally paced explosive tropical volcanic eruptions of the second half of the thirteenth century. The short- and long-term evolutions of both variables were investigated by cross analysis with a simulation of the IPSL-CM5A LR model. Our results show short-term ocean cooling and sea ice expansion in response to each volcanic eruption. They also highlight that the long response time of the ocean leads to cumulative surface cooling and subsurface heat buildup due to sea ice capping. As volcanic forcing relaxes, the surface ocean rapidly warms, likely amplified by subsurface heat, and remains almost ice free for several decades

Economic impacts of the Kra Canal : an application of the automatic calculation of sea distances by a GIS

A plan to construct a canal through the Kra Isthmus in Southern Thailand has been proposed many times since the 17th century. The proposed canal would become an alternative route to the over-crowded Straits of Malacca. In this paper, we attempt to utilize a Geographical Information System (GIS) to calculate the realistic distances between ports that would be affected by the Kra Canal and to estimate the economic impact of the canal using a simulation model based on spatial economics. We find that China, India, Japan, and Europe gain the most from the construction of the canal, besides Thailand. On the other hand, the routes through the Straits of Malacca are largely beneficial to Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, besides Singapore. Thus, it is beneficial for all ASEAN member countries that the Kra Canal and the Straits of Malacca coexist and complement one another.

Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD)

The study of pointer years of numerous tree-ring chronologies of the central Iberian Peninsula (Sierra de Guadarrama) could provide complementary information about climate variability over the last 405 yr. In total, 64 pointer years have been identified: 30 negative (representing minimum growths) and 34 positive (representing maximum growths), the most significant of these being 1601, 1963 and 1996 for the negative ones, and 1734 and 1737 for the positive ones. Given that summer precipitation was found to be the most limiting factor for the growth of Pinus in the Sierra de Guadarrama in the second half of the 20th century, it is also an explanatory factor in almost 50% of the extreme growths. Furthermore, these pointer years and intervals are not evenly distributed throughout time. Both in the first half of the 17th and in the second half of 20th, they were more frequent and more extreme and these periods are the most notable for the frequency of negative pointer years in Central Spain. The interval 1600–1602 is of special significance, being one of the most unfavourable for tree growth in the centre of Spain, with 1601 representing the minimum index in the regional chronology. We infer that this special minimum annual increase was the effect of the eruption of Huaynaputina, which occurred in Peru at the beginning of 1600 AD. This is the first time that the effects of this eruption in the tree-ring records of Southern Europe have been demonstrated.

Technical evolution of 3d modular construction from the nineteenth century to world war II

3D Modular construction is poorly known and scarcely published in technical literature. In spite of that there are an increasing number of manufacturers offering their products in different countries. This method has largely evolved from early examples such as the American Gold Rush prefabrication in the nineteenth century, the Sears precut homes or Voisin´s prototypes for modular homes, to the end of the first half of the twentieth century. In this period a non negligible number of attempts in 3D modular construction have been carried out, ranging from theoretical proposals to several hundred or thousand units produced. Selected examples of modular architecture will be analyses in order to illustrate its technical evolution, concerning materials, structure, transportation and on site assembly. Success and failure factors of the different systems will be discussed. Conclusions about building criteria shown in them and their applicability in current architecture will be drawn.

Initializing the DSSAT-Century model: inverse calibration of carbon pools from apparent soil N mineralization

The CENTURY soil organic matter model was adapted for the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), modular format in order to better simulate the dynamics of soil organic nutrient processes (Gijsman et al., 2002). The CENTURY model divides the soil organic carbon (SOC) into three hypothetical pools: microbial or active material (SOC1), intermediate (SOC2) and the largely inert and stable material (SOC3) (Jones et al., 2003). At the beginning of the simulation, CENTURY model needs a value of SOC3 per soil layer which can be estimated by the model (based on soil texture and management history) or given as an input. Then, the model assigns about 5% and 95% of the remaining SOC to SOC1 and SOC2, respectively. The model performance when simulating SOC and nitrogen (N) dynamics strongly depends on the initialization process. The common methods (e.g. Basso et al., 2011) to initialize SOC pools deal mostly with carbon (C) mineralization processes and less with N. Dynamics of SOM, SOC, and soil organic N are linked in the CENTURY-DSSAT model through the C/N ratio of decomposing material that determines either mineralization or immobilization of N (Gijsman et al., 2002). The aim of this study was to evaluate an alternative method to initialize the SOC pools in the DSSAT-CENTURY model from apparent soil N mineralization (Napmin) field measurements by using automatic inverse calibration (simulated annealing). The results were compared with the ones obtained by the iterative initialization procedure developed by Basso et al., 2011.

Recolonization of mortars by endolithic organisms on the walls of San Roque church in Campeche (Mexico): A case of tertiary bioreceptivity

San Roque church (Campeche, Mexico) was built at the end of the 17th century with a micritic limestone and lime mortar in baroque style. In 2005 the church exhibited heavy biodeterioration associated with the development of extensive dark green phototrophic-based biofilms. Several cyanobacteria belonging to the order Chroococcales and lichenized fungi (Toninia nordlandica, Lobaria quercizans, Lecanora subcarnea, Cystocoleus ebeneus) were predominant in the dark biofilm samples, as revealed by DNA-based molecular techniques. In 2009, a cleaning and restoration intervention was adopted; however, after few months, microbial recolonization started to be noticeable on the painted church walls, representing an early phototrophic-based recolonization. According to molecular analysis, scanning electron microscopy observations and digital image analysis of cross sections, new phototrophic-based colonization, composed of cyanobacteria and bryophytes, developed mainly beneath the restored mortars. The intrinsic properties of the mortars, the tropical climate of Campeche and the absence of a biocide treatment in the restoration protocol influenced the recolonization of the church façades and enhanced the overall rate of deterioration in a short-term period.