An urn-based Bayesian block bootstrap

Block bootstrap has been introduced in the literature for resampling dependent data, i.e. stationary processes. One of the main assumptions in block bootstrapping is that the blocks of observations are exchangeable, i.e. their joint distribution is immune to permutations. In this paper we propose a new Bayesian approach to block bootstrapping, starting from the construction of exchangeable blocks. Our sampling mechanism is based on a particular class of reinforced urn processes

Characteristics of a spina bifida population including North American Caucasian and Hispanic individuals.

BACKGROUND: Meningomyelocele (MM) is a common human birth defect. MM is a disorder of neural development caused by contributions from genes and environmental factors that result in the NTD and lead to a spectrum of physical and neurocognitive phenotypes. METHODS: A multidisciplinary approach has been taken to develop a comprehensive understanding of MM through collaborative efforts from investigators specializing in genetics, development, brain imaging, and neurocognitive outcome. Patients have been recruited from five different sites: Houston and the Texas-Mexico border area; Toronto, Canada; Los Angeles, California; and Lexington, Kentucky. Genetic risk factors for MM have been assessed by genotyping and association testing using the transmission disequilibrium test. RESULTS: A total of 509 affected child/parent trios and 309 affected child/parent duos have been enrolled to date for genetic association studies. Subsets of the patients have also been enrolled for studies assessing development, brain imaging, and neurocognitive outcomes. The study recruited two major ethnic groups, with 45.9% Hispanics of Mexican descent and 36.2% North American Caucasians of European descent. The remaining patients are African-American, South and Central American, Native American, and Asian. Studies of this group of patients have already discovered distinct corpus callosum morphology and neurocognitive deficits that associate with MM. We have identified maternal MTHFR 667T allele as a risk factor for MM. In addition, we also found that several genes for glucose transport and metabolism are potential risk factors for MM. CONCLUSIONS: The enrolled patient population provides a valuable resource for elucidating the disease characteristics and mechanisms for MM development.

Sequential updating via dynamic hierarchical models: A Bayesian approach to longitudinal data analysis

Most statistical analysis, theory and practice, is concerned with static models; models with a proposed set of parameters whose values are fixed across observational units. Static models implicitly assume that the quantified relationships remain the same across the design space of the data. While this is reasonable under many circumstances this can be a dangerous assumption when dealing with sequentially ordered data. The mere passage of time always brings fresh considerations and the interrelationships among parameters, or subsets of parameters, may need to be continually revised. ^ When data are gathered sequentially dynamic interim monitoring may be useful as new subject-specific parameters are introduced with each new observational unit. Sequential imputation via dynamic hierarchical models is an efficient strategy for handling missing data and analyzing longitudinal studies. Dynamic conditional independence models offers a flexible framework that exploits the Bayesian updating scheme for capturing the evolution of both the population and individual effects over time. While static models often describe aggregate information well they often do not reflect conflicts in the information at the individual level. Dynamic models prove advantageous over static models in capturing both individual and aggregate trends. Computations for such models can be carried out via the Gibbs sampler. An application using a small sample repeated measures normally distributed growth curve data is presented. ^

The positive effects of protean career attitude for self-initiated expatriates: Cultural adjustment as a mediator

Purpose – The authors sought to explain why and how protean career attitude might influence self‐initiated expatriates' (SIEs) experiences positively. A mediation model of cultural adjustment was proposed and empirically evaluated. Design/methodology/approach – Data from 132 SIEs in Germany containing measures of protean career attitude, cultural adjustment, career satisfaction, life satisfaction, and intention to stay in the host country were analysed using path analysis with a bootstrap method. Findings – Empirical results provide support for the authors' proposed model: the positive relations between protean career attitude and the three expatriation outcomes (career satisfaction, life satisfaction and intention to stay in the host country) were mediated by positive cross‐cultural adjustment of SIEs. Research limitations/implications – All data were cross‐sectional from a single source. The sample size was small and included a large portion of Chinese participants. The study should be replicated with samples in other destination countries, and longitudinal research is suggested. Practical implications – By fostering both a protean career attitude in skilled SIE employees and their cultural adjustment, corporations and receiving countries could be able to retain this international workforce better in times of talent shortage. Originality/value – This study contributes to the scarce research on the conceptual relatedness of protean career attitude and SIEs, as well as to acknowledging the cultural diversity of the SIE population.

Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracies for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae Accounting for the Complexities of Population Structure in Food Animals

For swine dysentery, which is caused by Brachyspira hyodysenteriae infection and is an economically important disease in intensive pig production systems worldwide, a perfect or error-free diagnostic test ("gold standard") is not available. In the absence of a gold standard, Bayesian latent class modelling is a well-established methodology for robust diagnostic test evaluation. In contrast to risk factor studies in food animals, where adjustment for within group correlations is both usual and required for good statistical practice, diagnostic test evaluation studies rarely take such clustering aspects into account, which can result in misleading results. The aim of the present study was to estimate test accuracies of a PCR originally designed for use as a confirmatory test, displaying a high diagnostic specificity, and cultural examination for B. hyodysenteriae. This estimation was conducted based on results of 239 samples from 103 herds originating from routine diagnostic sampling. Using Bayesian latent class modelling comprising of a hierarchical beta-binomial approach (which allowed prevalence across individual herds to vary as herd level random effect), robust estimates for the sensitivities of PCR and culture, as well as for the specificity of PCR, were obtained. The estimated diagnostic sensitivity of PCR (95% CI) and culture were 73.2% (62.3; 82.9) and 88.6% (74.9; 99.3), respectively. The estimated specificity of the PCR was 96.2% (90.9; 99.8). For test evaluation studies, a Bayesian latent class approach is well suited for addressing the considerable complexities of population structure in food animals.

The importance of socio-cultural factors on sports behaviour of adolescents and young adults in Switzerland – a conceptualisation on the basis of the habitus-approach

Sport participation has often been the topic in sports science and it could be shown that in Europe the population of northern and western countries are more often physically active than southern and eastern countries (European Commission, 2014). In Switzerland the physical activity of the Swiss population also differs between the linguistic regions. The German speaking population is more often physically active than the French or Italian speaking part (Stamm & Lamprecht, 2008). To explain the differences in sport participation structural and cultural factors have been discussed. Because within a country homogenous structural conditions can be assumed, the aim of this study is to analyse how socio-cultural factors correlate with sport participation of adolescents and young adults. In order to analyse this research question, Bourdieu’s concept of habitus (1984) has been used as theoretical background. This sport-related concept of habitus considers cultural determined values, the attribution of meaning and patterns of action which is socially determined and have an influence on individual actions and therefore also on the sport practise. On this basis, a qualitative study including guideline-based interviews with German (n=5) and French (n=3) speaking adolescents and young adults at the age of 16 to 24 (M=21.4) were held in two different linguistic regions of Switzerland. To analyse the interviews the documentary method was applied (Bohnsack, 2010). Initial findings reveal that there are different sport related values, attributions of meanings and patterns of action also called framework of orientations concerning topics like body, health and leisure which correlate with the habitual sports practise in the two different linguistic regions. This study illustrates that the habitus is culturally shaped and that it could help to understand the meaning of socio-cultural factors for sport participation.

Planet Population Synthesis

With the increasing number of exoplanets discovered, statistical properties of the population as a whole become unique constraints on planet-formation models, provided a link between the description of the detailed processes playing a role in this formation and the observed population can be established. Planet population synthesis provides such a link. This approach allows us to study how different physical models of individual processes (e.g., protoplanetary disk structure and evolution, planetesimal formation, gas accretion, migration, etc.) affect the overall properties of the population of emerging planets. By necessity, planet population synthesis relies on simplified descriptions of complex processes. These descriptions can be obtained from more detailed specialized simulations of these processes. The objective of this chapter is twofold: (1) provide an overview of the physics entering in the two main approaches to planet population synthesis, and (2) present some of the results achieved as well as illustrate how it can be used to extract constraints on the models and to help interpret observations.

GRAIL gravity field determination using the Celestial Mechanics Approach

The NASA mission GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) inherited its concept from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission to determine the gravity field of the Moon. We present lunar gravity fields based on the data of GRAIL’s primary mission phase. Gravity field recovery is realized in the framework of the Celestial Mechanics Approach, using a development version of the Bernese GNSS Software along with Ka-band range-rate data series as observations and the GNI1B positions provided by NASA JPL as pseudo-observations. By comparing our results with the official level-2 GRAIL gravity field models we show that the lunar gravity field can be recovered with a high quality by adapting the Celestial Mechanics Approach, even when using pre-GRAIL gravity field models as a priori fields and when replacing sophisticated models of non-gravitational accelerations by appropriately spaced pseudo-stochastic pulses (i.e., instantaneous velocity changes). We present and evaluate two lunar gravity field solutions up to degree and order 200 – AIUB-GRL200A and AIUB-GRL200B. While the first solution uses no gravity field information beyond degree 200, the second is obtained by using the official GRAIL field GRGM900C up to degree and order 660 as a priori information. This reduces the omission errors and demonstrates the potential quality of our solution if we resolved the gravity field to higher degree.

A novel approach for assessing shifting cultivation dynamics in a regional conservation hotspot - insights from nort-eastern Madagascar

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar has been deemed a global hotspot of biodiversity due to its high levels of endemic speciesbeing heavily threatened by accelerated deforestation rates and landscape changes. The main concern for conservation of the remaining humid primary forests is the shifting cultivation practices of local smallholder farmers for rice production. According to the mainstream narrative, human population growth leads to a shortening of crop-fallow cycles and thus to the accelerated conversion of forests to agricultural land. However, little is currently known about the dynamic changes between forest and shifting cultivation systems at the regional level. Existing land cover change analyses in this area have so far only focused on binary forest to non-forest changes and have therefore failed to account for the dynamic nature of the change processes between forest and different agriculture land use systems. This can be partly explained by the significant challenge to delineate shifting cultivation systems on land cover maps using traditional remote sensing classification approaches. To address this gap we therefore applied a novel GIS approach, that was originally developed for the assessment of shifting cultivation dynamics in Laos and has so far never been applied elsewhere, to map shifting cultivation of different crop-fallow lengths as well as permanent agriculture land use at the regional level. Change analyses of land use maps between 1995 and 2011 allowed us to comprehend the general trends of land use trajectories and their spatial variation. This more detailed understanding of land use change dynamics is key to plan for successful interventions to slow forest loss while at the same time improving local livelihoods. We further believe that this approach holds great potential for conservation monitoring in this resource-rich but povertyprone conservation hotspot.

Diagnostic endoscopy of the navicular bursa using a needle endoscope by direct or transthecal approach: A comparative cadaver study

OBJECTIVES: To compare the practicability, visualization of structures, and iatrogenic damage of direct and transthecal approaches to the navicular bursa for diagnostic needle endoscopy. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive study. SAMPLE POPULATION: Equine cadaver forelimbs (n = 30). METHODS: Direct and transthecal approaches for insertion of a needle endoscope into the navicular bursa were performed. Video recordings of endoscopic procedures were assessed to determine all structures visualized within the navicular bursa. Number of attempts to gain access to the navicular bursa and total time for insertion and examination were recorded. Distribution and severity of iatrogenic lesions were assessed and scored after dissection. RESULTS: There were no statistical differences for number of attempts or time needed for insertion and examination between direct and transthecal approaches. The direct approach offered significantly increased visibility of the ipsilateral abaxial and proximal margins of the navicular bone, and ipsilateral collateral sesamoidean ligament. Iatrogenic lesions were superficial and focal, regardless of approach taken, or whether a blunt or sharp trocar tip was used. CONCLUSIONS: The direct approach provided significantly better visualization of the ipsilateral structures within the navicular bursa compared to the transthecal approach. Needle endoscopy offers a reliable technique to evaluate the navicular bursa and may complement or replace other diagnostic modalities in horses with lameness localized to the navicular region.

Trends in life expectancy of HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral therapy across the globe: comparisons with general population.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW Improved virological and immunological outcomes and reduced toxicity of antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) raise the hope that life expectancy of HIV-positive persons on ART will approach that of the general population. We systematically review the literature and summarize published estimates of life expectancy of HIV-positive populations on ART. We compare their life expectancy with the life expectancy of the general or, in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV-negative populations, by time period and gender. RECENT FINDINGS Ten relevant studies were published from 2006 to 2015. Three studies were from Canada, two from European countries, three from sub-Saharan Africa and two were multicountry studies. Life expectancy increased over time in all studies and regions. Expressed as the percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population, estimated life expectancy at age 20 years in HIV-positive people on ART ranged from 60.3% (95% CI 58.0-62.6%) in Rwanda (2008-2011) to 89.1% (95% CI 84.7-93.6%) in Canada (2008-2012). The percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population achieved was higher in HIV-positive women than in HIV-positive men in all countries, except for Canada wherein the opposite was the case. SUMMARY Life expectancy in HIV-positive people on ART has improved worldwide in recent years, but important gaps remain compared with the general and HIV-negative population, and between regions and genders.

A Bootstrap-Regression Procedure to Capture Unit Specific Effects in Data Envelopment Analysis

The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency score obtained for an individual firm is a point estimate without any confidence interval around it. In recent years, researchers have resorted to bootstrapping in order to generate empirical distributions of efficiency scores. This procedure assumes that all firms have the same probability of getting an efficiency score from any specified interval within the [0,1] range. We propose a bootstrap procedure that empirically generates the conditional distribution of efficiency for each individual firm given systematic factors that influence its efficiency. Instead of resampling directly from the pooled DEA scores, we first regress these scores on a set of explanatory variables not included at the DEA stage and bootstrap the residuals from this regression. These pseudo-efficiency scores incorporate the systematic effects of unit-specific factors along with the contribution of the randomly drawn residual. Data from the U.S. airline industry are utilized in an empirical application.

Development and validation of the Neuro Symptom Inventory in the primary brain tumor patient population

Symptoms has been shown to predict quality of life, treatment course and survival in solid tumor patients. Currently, no instrument exists that measures both cancer-related symptoms and the neurologic symptoms that are unique to persons with primary brain tumors (PBT). The aim of this study was to develop and validate an instrument to measure symptoms in patients who have PBT. A conceptual analysis of symptoms and symptom theories led to defining the symptoms experience as the perception of the frequency, intensity, distress, and meaning that occurs as symptoms are produced, perceived, and expressed. The M.D. Anderson Symptom Inventory (MDASI) measures both symptoms and how they interfere with daily functioning in patients with cancer, which is similar to the situational meaning defined in the analysis. A list of symptoms pertinent to the PBT population was added to the core MDASI and reviewed by a group of experts for validity. As a result, 18 items were added to the core MDASI (the MDASI-BT) for the next phase of instrument development, establishing validity and reliability through a descriptive, cross-sectional approach with PBT patients. Data were collected with a patient completed demographic data sheet, an investigator completed clinician checklist, and the MDASI-BT. Analysis evaluated the reliability and validity of the MDASI-BT in PBT patients. Data were obtained from 201 patients. The number of items was reduced to 22 by evaluation of symptom severity as well as cluster analysis. Regression analysis showed more than half (56%) of the variability in symptom severity was explained by the brain tumor module items. Factor analysis confirmed that the 22 item MDASI-BT measured six underlying constructs: (a) affective; (b) cognitive; (c) focal neurologic deficits; (d) constitutional symptoms; (e) treatment-related symptoms; and (f) gastrointestinal symptoms. The MDASI-BT was sensitive to disease severity and if the patient was hospitalized. The MDASI-BT is the first instrument to measure symptoms in PBT patients that has demonstrated reliability and validity. It is the first step in a program of research to evaluate the occurrence of symptoms and plan and evaluate interventions for PBT patients. ^

Toxics Release Inventory facilities and childhood cancer: Geographic information systems based approach

Purpose. To examine the association between living in proximity to Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. ^ Design. This is a secondary data analysis utilizing the publicly available Toxics release inventory (TRI), maintained by the U.S. Environmental protection agency that lists the facilities that release any of the 650 TRI chemicals. Total childhood cancer cases and childhood cancer rate (age 0-14 years) by county, for the years 1995-2003 were used from the Texas cancer registry, available at the Texas department of State Health Services website. Setting: This study was limited to the children population of the State of Texas. ^ Method. Analysis was done using Stata version 9 and SPSS version 15.0. Satscan was used for geographical spatial clustering of childhood cancer cases based on county centroids using the Poisson clustering algorithm which adjusts for population density. Pictorial maps were created using MapInfo professional version 8.0. ^ Results. One hundred and twenty five counties had no TRI facilities in their region, while 129 facilities had at least one TRI facility. An increasing trend for number of facilities and total disposal was observed except for the highest category based on cancer rate quartiles. Linear regression analysis using log transformation for number of facilities and total disposal in predicting cancer rates was computed, however both these variables were not found to be significant predictors. Seven significant geographical spatial clusters of counties for high childhood cancer rates (p<0.05) were indicated. Binomial logistic regression by categorizing the cancer rate in to two groups (<=150 and >150) indicated an odds ratio of 1.58 (CI 1.127, 2.222) for the natural log of number of facilities. ^ Conclusion. We have used a unique methodology by combining GIS and spatial clustering techniques with existing statistical approaches in examining the association between living in proximity to TRI facilities and the incidence of childhood cancer in the State of Texas. Although a concrete association was not indicated, further studies are required examining specific TRI chemicals. Use of this information can enable the researchers and public to identify potential concerns, gain a better understanding of potential risks, and work with industry and government to reduce toxic chemical use, disposal or other releases and the risks associated with them. TRI data, in conjunction with other information, can be used as a starting point in evaluating exposures and risks. ^

Youth population's health issues in Comal County, Texas

This study assesses adolescent's health issues in Comal County, TX. Adolescents are defined as youth between the ages of 12 to 17 years of age, who resided in Comal County during the time period of 2000 to 2007. The analysis focused on high risk behaviors including use of gateway drugs—tobacco and alcohol; illegal substance use; and reproductive health related indicators, including sexual activity, sexually transmitted diseases, and pregnancy. This study is based on the primary and secondary data collected as part of the 2008 Comal County Community Assessment. It compares findings from the primary data sources to extant data from four secondary data sources including: (1) The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (national) Healthy People 2010; (2) The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey, 2007; (3) The Texas Department of State Health Services, 2000 to 2007; and The Pride Survey (Local and Statewide). The methods are drawn from the literature on "rapid epidemiologic appraisal" (Annett H. & Rifkin S. B., 1988). The study focus on corroborating the perceptions, subjective concerns, opinions and beliefs of the Comal County key stakeholders and community participants with qualitative and quantitative indicators of health and well being. The value of this approach is to inform community leaders using a public health perspective and evidence in their decisions about priority setting and resources allocation activities for prevention of high risk behaviors and promotion of adolescent health and well being. ^