Predictors of substance use reduction in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis cohort.

AIM: To assess the predictors of a significant decrease or cessation of substance use (SU) in a treated epidemiological cohort of first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. METHOD: Participants were FEP patients of the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre in Australia. Patients' medical files were reviewed using a standardized file audit. Data on 432 patients with FEP and baseline co-morbid substance use disorder (SUD) were available for analysis. Predictors of reduction/cessation of SU at follow up were examined using logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In univariate analyses, a reduction/cessation of SU was predicted by baseline measures reflecting higher education, employment, accommodation with others, cannabis use disorder (CUD) only (rather than poly-SUDs), better global functioning and better premorbid social and occupational functioning, later age at onset of psychosis, and a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis. In multivariate analysis, CUD alone and better premorbid social and occupational functioning remained significant predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing SUDs and social and occupational goals in people with FEP may offer opportunities to prevent SUDs becoming more severe or entrenched. Further longitudinal research on recovery from SU and FEP is needed to disentangle directions of influence and identify key targets for intervention.

Prognostic Importance of the Cuse of Renal Failure in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic value of the different causes of renal failure in cirrhosis is not well established. This study investigated the predictive value of the cause of renal failure in cirrhosis. METHODS: Five hundred sixty-two consecutive patients with cirrhosis and renal failure (as defined by serum creatinine 1.5 mg/dL on 2 successive determinations within 48 hours) hospitalized over a 6-year period in a single institution were included in a prospective study. The cause of renal failure was classified into 4 groups: renal failure associated with bacterial infections, renal failure associated with volume depletion, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and parenchymal nephropathy. The primary end point was survival at 3 months. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-three patients (82.4%) had renal failure that could be classified in 1 of 4 groups. The most frequent was renal failure associated with infections (213 cases; 46%), followed by hypovolemia-associated renal failure (149; 32%), HRS (60; 13%), and parenchymal nephropathy (41; 9%). The remaining patients had a combination of causes or miscellaneous conditions. Prognosis was markedly different according to cause of renal failure, 3-month probability of survival being 73% for parenchymal nephropathy, 46% for hypovolemia-associated renal failure, 31% for renal failure associated with infections, and 15% for HRS (P .0005). In a multivariate analysis adjusted for potentially confounding variables, cause of renal failure was independently associated with prognosis, together with MELD score, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy at time of diagnosis of renal failure. CONCLUSIONS: A simple classification of patients with cirrhosis according to cause of renal failure is useful in assessment of prognosis and may help in decision making in liver transplantation.

Prognostic value of cortically induced motor evoked activity by TMS in chronic stroke: caveats from a very revealing single clinical case

Background: We report the case of a chronic stroke patient (62 months after injury) showing total absence of motor activity evoked by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) of spared regions of the left motor cortex, but near-to-complete recovery of motor abilities in the affected hand. Case presentation: Multimodal investigations included detailed TMS based motor mapping, motor evoked potentials (MEP), and Cortical Silent period (CSP) as well as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) of motor activity, MRI based lesion analysis and Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) Tractography of corticospinal tract (CST). Anatomical analysis revealed a left hemisphere subinsular lesion interrupting the descending left CST at the level of the internal capsule. The absence of MEPs after intense TMS pulses to the ipsilesional M1, and the reversible suppression of ongoing electromyographic (EMG) activity (indexed by CSP) demonstrate a weak modulation of subcortical systems by the ipsilesional left frontal cortex, but an inability to induce efficient descending volleys from those cortical locations to right hand and forearm muscles. Functional MRI recordings under grasping and finger tapping patterns involving the affected hand showed slight signs of subcortical recruitment, as compared to the unaffected hand and hemisphere, as well as the expected cortical activations. Conclusions: The potential sources of motor voluntary activity for the affected hand in absence of MEPs are discussed. We conclude that multimodal analysis may contribute to a more accurate prognosis of stroke patients.

Reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome identification of prognostic factors.

OBJECT: Reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome (RCVS) is described as a clinical and radiological entity characterized by thunderclap headaches, a reversible segmental or multifocal vasoconstriction of cerebral arteries with or without focal neurological deficits or seizures. The purpose of this study is to determine risk factors of poor outcome in patients presented a RCVS. METHODS: A retrospective multi-center review of invasive and non-invasive neurovascular imaging between January 2006 and January 2011 has identified 10 patients with criterion of reversible segmental vasoconstriction syndrome. Demographics data, vascular risks and evolution of each of these patients were analyzed. RESULTS: Seven of the ten patients were females with a mean age of 46 years. In four patients, we did not found any causative factors. Two cases presented RCVS in post-partum period between their first and their third week after delivery. The other three cases were drug-induced RCVS, mainly vaso-active drugs. Cannabis was found as the causative factor in two patient, Sumatriptan identified in one patient while cyclosporine was the causative agent in also one patient. The mean duration of clinical follow-up was 10.2 months (range: 0-28 months). Two patients had neurological sequelae: one patient kept a dysphasia and the other had a homonymous lateral hemianopia. We could not find any significant difference of the evolution between secondary RCVS and idiopathic RCVS. The only two factors, which could be correlated to the clinical outcome were the neurological status at admission and the presence of intraparenchymal abnormalities (ischemic stroke, hematoma) in brain imaging. CONCLUSIONS: Fulminant vasoconstriction resulting in progressive symptoms or death has been reported in exceptional frequency. Physicians had to remember that such evolution could happen and predict them by identifying all factors of poor prognosis (neurological status at admission, the presence of intraparenchymal abnormalities).

Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS: For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION: Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

Molecular predictors of gemcitabine response in pancreatic cancer.

Gemcitabine is one of the most used anti-neoplastic drugs with documented activity in almost all major localizations of cancer. In pancreatic cancer treatment, gemcitabine occupies a prominent place as a first line chemotherapy, partly because of the paucity of other efficacious chemotherapy options. In fact, only a minority of pancreatic cancer patients display a response or even stability of disease with the drug. There are currently no clinically applicable means of predicting which patient will derive a clinical benefit from gemcitabine although several proposed markers have been studied. These markers are proteins involved in drug up-take, activation and catabolism or proteins that define the ability of the cell to undergo apoptosis in response to the drug. Several of these markers are reviewed in this paper. We also briefly discuss the possible role of stem cells in drug resistance to gemcitabine.

Predictors for the emergence of the 2 multi-nucleoside/nucleotide resistance mutations 69 insertion and Q151M and their impact on clinical outcome in the Swiss HIV cohort study.

The 69 insertion and Q151M mutations are multi-nucleoside/nucleotide resistance mutations (MNR). The prevalence among 4078 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-experienced individuals was <1.3%. Combined ART fully prevented MNR in subtype B infections. Case-control studies were performed to identify risk factors. Control subjects were patients with ≥ 3 thymidine-analogue mutations. The 69 insertion study (27 control subjects, 14 case patients) identified didanosine exposure as a risk (odds ratio, 5.0 per year; P = .019), whereas the Q151M study (which included 44 control subjects and 25 case patients) detected no associations. Following detection, individuals with Q151M tended to have lower suppression rates and higher mortality rates, relative to control subjects. Additional studies are needed to verify these findings in non-subtype B infections.

Early predictors of outcome in comatose survivors of ventricular fibrillation and non-ventricular fibrillation cardiac arrest treated with hypothermia: a prospective study

OBJECTIVES: Current indications for therapeutic hypothermia (TH) are restricted to comatose patients with cardiac arrest (CA) due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) and without circulatory shock. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of this treatment in more heterogeneous groups of patients, including those with non-VF rhythms and/or shock and to identify early predictors of outcome in this setting. DESIGN: Prospective study, from December 2004 to October 2006. SETTING: 32-bed medico-surgical intensive care unit, university hospital. PATIENTS: Comatose patients with out-of-hospital CA. INTERVENTIONS: TH to 33 +/- 1 degrees C (external cooling, 24 hrs) was administered to patients resuscitated from CA due to VF and non-VF (including asystole or pulseless electrical activity), independently from the presence of shock. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We hypothesized that simple clinical criteria available on hospital admission (initial arrest rhythm, duration of CA, and presence of shock) might help to identify patients who eventually survive and might most benefit from TH. For this purpose, outcome was related to these predefined variables. Seventy-four patients (VF 38, non-VF 36) were included; 46% had circulatory shock. Median duration of CA (time from collapse to return of spontaneous circulation [ROSC]) was 25 mins. Overall survival was 39.2%. However, only 3.1% of patients with time to ROSC > 25 mins survived, as compared to 65.7% with time to ROSC < or = 25 mins. Using a logistic regression analysis, time from collapse to ROSC, but not initial arrest rhythm or presence of shock, independently predicted survival at hospital discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Time from collapse to ROSC is strongly associated with outcome following VF and non-VF cardiac arrest treated with therapeutic hypothermia and could therefore be helpful to identify patients who benefit most from active induced cooling.

Predictors of the Indefinite-Duration Anticoagulation Treatment Strategy In Patients with Cancer Associated Thrombosis

Background: In patients with cancer and acute venous thromboembolism (VTE), current consensus guidelines recommend anticoagulation therapy for an indefinite duration or until the cancer is resolved. Methods and results: Among 1'247 patients with acute VTE enrolled in the Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry (SWIVTER) from 18 hospitals, 315 (25%) had cancer of whom 179 (57%) had metastatic disease, 159 (50%) ongoing or recent chemotherapy, and 83 (26%) tumor surgery within 6 months. Patients with cancer were older (66±14 vs. 60±19 years, p<0.001), more often hospitalized at the time of VTE diagnosis (46% vs. 36%, p=0.001), immobile for >3 days (25% vs. 16%, p<0.001), and more often had thrombocytopenia (6% vs. 1%, p<0.001) than patients without cancer. The 30-day rate of VTE-related death or recurrent VTE was 9% in cancer patients vs. 4% in patients without cancer (p<0.001), and the rates of bleeding requiring medical attention were 5% in both groups (p=0.57). Cancer patients received indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment more often than patients without cancer (47% vs. 19%, p<0.001), and LMWH mono-therapy during the initial 3 months was prescribed to 45% vs. 8%, p<0.001, respectively. Among patients with cancer, prior VTE (OR 4.0, 95%CI 2.0-8.0), metastatic disease (OR 3.0, 95%CI 1.7-5.2), outpatient status at the time of VTE diagnosis (OR 3.8, 95%CI 1.9-7.6), and inpatient treatment (OR 4.4, 95%CI 2.1-9.2) were independently associated with the prescription of indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment. Conclusions: Less than half of the cancer patients with acute VTE received a prescription for indefinite-duration anticoagulation treatment. Recurrent VTE, metastatic cancer, outpatient VTE diagnosis, and VTE requiring hospitalization were associated with an increased use of this strategy.

Prevalence and predictors of suicide attempt in an incidence cohort of 661 young people with first-episode psychosis

OBJECTIVES: Studies investigating suicidal behaviour in psychosis rarely focus on incidence cohorts of first-episode patients. This is important, because patients who refuse study participation have higher rates of comorbid substance use disorders and longer duration of untreated psychosis as well as worse course illness, variables potentially linked to higher prevalence of suicidal behaviour. The aims of the present study were therefore to examine the prevalence and predictors of suicide and suicide attempt before and during the first 18-24 months of treatment. METHOD: A retrospective file audit of 661 patients was carried out. RESULTS: Six patients (0.9%) died by suicide, 93 (14.3%) attempted suicide prior to entry, and 57 (8.7%) did so during treatment. Predictors of suicide attempt were: previous attempt (odds ratio (OR)=45.54, 95% confidence interval (CI)=9.46-219.15), sexual abuse (OR=8.46, 95%CI=1.88-38.03), comorbid polysubstance (OR=13.63, 95%CI=2.58-71.99), greater insight (OR=0.17, 95%CI=0.06-0.49), lower baseline Global Assessment of Functioning Scale and Scale of Occupational and Functional Assessment score (OR=0.96, 95%CI=0.62-0.91; OR=0.98, 95%CI=0.95-0.99), and longer time in treatment (OR=1.05, 95%CI=1.03-1.08). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of suicidal behaviour was high, indicating that suicidal behaviour in incidence populations is higher than in non-epidemiological cohorts of first-episode patients. The rate of repetition of suicide attempt among the sample, however, was lower than expected, suggesting that specialist services can play a role in reducing suicide risk.

Treatment deviating from guidelines does not influence status epilepticus prognosis.

Status epilepticus (SE) prognosis is related to nonmodifiable factors (age, etiology), but the exact role of drug treatment is unclear. This study was undertaken to address the prognostic role of treatment adherence to guidelines (TAG). We prospectively studied over 26 months a cohort of adults with incident SE (excluding postanoxic). TAG was assessed in terms of drug doses (± 30 % of recommendations) and medication sequence; its prognostic impact on mortality and return to baseline conditions was adjusted for etiology, SE severity [Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS)], and comorbidities. Of 225 patients, 26 (12 %) died and 82 (36 %) were discharged with a new handicap; TAG was observed in 142 (63 %). On univariate analysis, age, etiology, SE severity, and comorbidities were significantly related to outcome, while TAG was associated with neither outcome nor likelihood of SE control. Logistic regression for mortality identified etiology [odds ratio (OR) 18.8, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 4.3-82.8] and SE severity (STESS ≥ 3; OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4) as independent predictors, and for lack of return to baseline, again etiology (OR 7.4, 95 % CI 3.9-14.0) and STESS ≥ 3 (OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.4-2.2). Similar results were found for the subgroup of 116 patients with generalized-convulsive SE. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses confirmed that TAG did not improve outcome prediction. This study of a large SE cohort suggests that treatment adherence to recommendations using current medications seems to play a negligible prognostic role (class III), confirming the importance of the biological background. Awaiting further treatment trials, it appears mandatory to apply resources towards identification of new therapeutic approaches.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elderly patients with pulmonary embolism.

Background: The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), and its simplified version (sPESI) are well known clinical prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE).Objectives: To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with PE. Patients/Methods: In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥65 years with symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low- vs. higher-risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤2 vs. >2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V, and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P<0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared to 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95%CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80), and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P=0.47). Conclusions: In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.

Hour of birth as a prognostic factor for perinatal death.

The analysis of the 220,540 births and 2152 perinatal deaths recorded in Switzerland between 1979 and 1981 showed a variation of perinatal mortality rates (PMR) according to the hour of birth. The PMR for babies born between 4 pm and 2 am was 12 per 1000, contrasting with a figure of 8.4 per 1000 for babies born between 2 am and 4 pm. This pattern, which was fairly constant throughout the week, was characterised by a slow and steady increase from the very early morning, reaching a maximum in the late evening. There was also an hour-to-hour variation in the proportion of babies born weighing less than 2500 g, with a maximum in the evening and a less pronounced peak in the morning: the mortality rates by birthweight were raised only in the evening. Since the availability of hospital staff and equipment also follows a circadian rhythm, the variation in PMR may be related to a circadian rhythm of quality of care or possibly to chronobiological or selection factors.

Prognostic significance of nailfold capillary microscopy in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon and scleroderma-pattern abnormalities. A six-year follow-up study.

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of scleroderma capillary pattern (SD-pattern) in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon. Thirty patients with a capillaroscopy examination suggestive of scleroderma (megacapillaries and/or avascularity) but without clinical criteria of scleroderma (ARA criteria) were reevaluated 6 years after the initial clinical and capillaroscopy examinations. SD-pattern abnormalities were classified according to a semiquantitative method. Eight out of the 28 evaluated patients (28%) developed a scleroderma spectrum disorder (SDS). The presence of avascularity and/or a mean of more than two megacapillaries digit greatly enhanced the percentage of evolution toward SDS (70%/88% respectively). Most of the patients with few enlarged capillaries and no capillary rarefaction at entry had primary acrocyanosis (11/15). None of them developed SDS. The microangiopathy disappeared during the follow-up period in most of these patients (14/15). These results confirm the prognostic value of SD-pattern capillary abnormalities for SDS. Primary acrocyanosis, a benign clinical entity should be considered in presence of few megacapillaries and without capillary rarefaction.