Radiometric dating of the Siloam Tunnel, Jerusalem

The historical credibility of texts from the Bible is often debated when compared with Iron Age archaeological finds (refs. 1, 2 and references therein). Modern scientific methods may, in principle, be used to independently date structures that seem to be mentioned in the biblical text, to evaluate its historical authenticity. In reality, however, this approach is extremely difficult because of poor archaeological preservation, uncertainty in identification, scarcity of datable materials, and restricted scientific access into well-identified worship sites. Because of these problems, no well-identified Biblical structure has been radiometrically dated until now. Here we report radiocarbon and U-Th dating of the Siloam Tunnel(3-10), proving its Iron Age II date; we conclude that the Biblical text presents an accurate historic record of the Siloam Tunnel's construction. Being one of the longest ancient water tunnels lacking intermediate shafts(11,12), dating the Siloam Tunnel is a key to determining where and when this technological breakthrough took place. Siloam Tunnel dating also refutes a claim(13) that the tunnel was constructed in the second century BC.

Are Cape floral clades the same age? Contemporaneous origins of two lineages in the genistoids s.l. (Fabaceae)

The hypothesis that the elements of the modern species-rich flora of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR), South Africa, originated more or less simultaneously at the Miocene/Pliocene boundary, in response to the development of a mediterranean climate, has been challenged by numerous molecular dating estimates of Cape floral clades. These studies reveal a more gradual emergence, with the oldest clades originating in the Eocene, but others appearing later, some as recently as the Pliocene. That there are factors which might affect the dates recovered, such as choice of calibration point, analysis method, sampling density and the delimitation of Cape floral clades, suggests a need for further critical evaluation of the age estimates presented to date. In this study, the dates of origin of two Cape floral clades (the legume Crotalarieae p.p. and Podalyrieae) are estimated, constrained by a shared calibration point in a single analysis using an rDNA ITS phylogeny in which 633 taxa are sampled. The results indicate that these two clades arose contemporaneously 44-46 mya, not at the Miocene/Pliocene boundary as had been previously supposed. The contemporaneous origin of these Cape floral clades suggests that additional more inclusive analyses are needed before rejecting the hypothesis that a. single environmental trigger explains the establishment of Cape floral clades. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.