油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

社会困境中的行为决策――社会身份与地位的影响

Social dilemmas are defined as such situations in which short-term individual and long-term collective interests are at odds (Hardin, 1968; Messick & Brewer, 1983). Severe social problems lead more and more researchers to pay attention to the issue of social dilemmas. Until now, research has widely examined the factors influencing cooperation in social dilemmas, and provided solutions to social dilemmas. In the need of theory development, previous research generally simplified the situation of realistic social dilemmas. Therefore, few studies have explored the issue of cooperation in social dilemmas in an intergroup situation. On the other hand, there has been little empirical attention for such issues in countries outside of United States and Western Europe. To meet this gap, the present study grounded itself in social identity theories and examined the effect of unequal group status on behavioral decision making in social dilemmas. To this end, the study designed three experiments to examine how individuals with different group status response psychologically and behaviorally to cooperation in intragroup and intergroup social dilemmas. In experiment 1, the study examined how independent and interdependent self- construals affect cooperative behavior in an intragroup social dilemma. The results showed that when individuals were primed with interdependent (as opposed to independent) self-construal, they consistently contributed highly, regardless of context manipulation. In contrast, those primed with independent self-construal contributed less in the investment game but only when placed in a context where group members were encouraged to think about their individual (versus shared) fate. Results supported the idea that independent self-construal in a low interdependent context produces the most competitive behavior and that this effect was partially mediated by the feeling of interaction within a group. In experiment 2, the study examined how the effect of group status on different level of cooperation in a nested social dilemma was moderated by individual status, and what roles ingroup and superordinate identifications played in the above effect. Results found that individuals in higher status groups tended to allocate more to private account and less to subgroup account compared to those in lower status group; individuals in higher status groups allocated more to higher level accounts than to private account, whereas those in lower status acted in a reverse way. The results indicated that group status (compared to individual status) exerted a positive influence on behavioral decision making in social dilemmas, with higher group status contributing more to subgroup as well as collective interests. Results also found that the effect of group status and/or individual status on cooperation in social dilemmas was moderated by sex. As for individual status, results showed that the effect of individual status on subgroup interest was significantly moderated only by the combination of higher ingroup identification and lower superordinate identification. In experiment 3, the study explored how group stability and cognitive categorization interactively influenced the relationship between group status and behavioral decision making in a social dilemma. Results did not support the prediction that group status and stability interactively affected behavioral decision-making in social dilemmas. However, it was found that this relationship was moderated by which level individuals categorized themselves at. When categorization at the individual level was salient, individuals in high status group contributed more to subgroup account than those in low status group if they perceived a stable status hierarchy; whereas they contributed more to private account and less to collective account if they perceived that the status was instable. On the other hand, when categorization at the subgroup level was salient, individuals in high status group contributed less to collective account than those in low status group if they perceived that the status was stable; whereas they contributed less to private account and more to subgroup account if they perceived an instable status relation. In summary, the present study suggests that cooperation with ingroup forms the basis of social harmony, and higher status for everyone in any given group is a necessary for social development. On the other hand, individuals in higher status group tend to be more selfish once they realize that their current status hierarchy is unstable. However, activating their collective identity will to some degree increase the level of their cooperation with the collective. The study thus provides psychological explanations on how to construct group harmony and management suggestions on how to solve social conflicts.

10-14岁超常儿童的亲社会行为特点及影响因素

Is prosocial behavior of supernormal children distinguished from normal children? Is there any difference between the supernormal children’s prosocial behavior from different educational placement? What are the mechanisms underlying the difference? The aim of this study was to examine these issues. With multiple methods of prosocial behavior, including other-rating, self-rating and hypothetical dilemma, we investigated the 10 to 14 year-old children. Firstly, the development of prosocial behavior and its relationship with prosocial behavior was examined. Secondly, we investigated the features of supernormal children’s prosocial behavior and analysed its difference with normal children. Finally, we tried to find the difference of supernormal children’s prosocial behaviour from different educational placement, and the mechanisms underlying the difference, such as social value orientation and peer relation. The results are as follows: 1)The altruistic and compliant prosocial tendency of 14 year-old children was obviously lower than those younger children. Intelligence was positively related with altruistic and emotional prosocial tendency for 10 year-olds, and with prosocial behaviour of peer nominated for 12 year-olds. 2)There was no significant difference of prosocial behaviour between supernormal and normal children. The peer nominated prosocial behaviour of 12 year-old supernormal children was higher than of 11 and 13 years old supernormal children. In addition, girls’ other-rating prosocial behaviour was significantly higher than boys’, but no gender difference was detected in the prosocial behaviour of self-rating and hypothetical dilemma. 3)With regard to the supernormal children’s prosocial behaviour in different educational placement, we found that the prosocial degree of the supernormal children of homogeneous groups was higher than that of heterogeneous groups in the role-change of ultimatum game. 4)The supernormal children from different educational placement had different social value orientation. More supernormal children of homogeneous groups belonged to the type of group enhancement, while more supernormal children of heterogeneous groups belonged to the type of equality. The types of social value orientation did not have impact on the supernormal children’s prosocial behaviour from different educational placement. 5)Peer relation moderated the impact of different educational placement on supernormal children’s prosocial behaviour.

Compiling Scientific Code Using Partial Evaluation

Scientists are faced with a dilemma: either they can write abstract programs that express their understanding of a problem, but which do not execute efficiently; or they can write programs that computers can execute efficiently, but which are difficult to write and difficult to understand. We have developed a compiler that uses partial evaluation and scheduling techniques to provide a solution to this dilemma.

A Want of Order and Good Discipline: Rules, Discretion and the Victorian Prison

null RAE2008

Exposed singularity

Edkins, J., Exposed singularity, Journal for Cultural Research, Volume 9, Issue 4 October 2005 , pages 359 - 386 RAE2008

In Praise of Folly: International Administration and the Corruption of Humanity

Bain, William, 'In Praise of Folly: International Administration and the Corruption of Humanity', International Affairs, (2006) 82(3) pp.525-538 RAE2008

Writing the War on Terrorism: Language, Politics and Counter-terrorism

Jackson, Richard, Writing the War on Terrorism: Language, Politics and Counter-terrorism (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2005), pp.viii + 232 RAE2008

The paradox of using tacit and explicit knowledge: Strategies to face dilemnas

Jasimuddin, Sajjad, Klein, Jonathan, and Connell, Con, 'The paradox of using tacit and explicit knowledge: Strategies to face dilemnas', Management Decision (2005) 43(1) pp.102-112 RAE2008

Making Sadza with Deaf Zimbabwean Women: A Missiological Reorientation of Practical Theological Method toward Self-Theologizing Agency among Subaltern Communities

Missiological calls for self-theologizing among faith communities present the field of practical theology with a challenge to develop methodological approaches that address the complexities of cross-cultural, practical theological research. Although a variety of approaches can be considered critical correlative practical theology, existing methods are often built on assumptions that limit their use in subaltern contexts. This study seeks to address these concerns by analyzing existing theological methodologies with sustained attention to a community of Deaf Zimbabwean women struggling to develop their own agency in relation to child rearing practices. This dilemma serves as an entry point to an examination of the limitations of existing methodologies and a constructive, interdisciplinary theological exploration. The use of theological modeling methodology employs my experience of learning to cook sadza, a staple dish of Zimbabwe, as a guide for analyzing and reorienting practical theological methodology. The study explores a variety of theological approaches from practical theology, mission oriented theologians, theology among Deaf communities, and African women’s theology in relationship to the challenges presented by subaltern communities such as Deaf Zimbabwean women. Analysis reveals that although there is much to commend in these existing methodologies, questions about who does the critical correlation, whose interests are guiding the study, and consideration for the cross-cultural and power dynamics between researchers and faith communities remain problematic for developing self-theologizing agency. Rather than frame a comprehensive methodology, this study proposes three attitudes and guideposts to reorient practical theological researchers who wish to engender self-theologizing agency in subaltern communities. The creativity of enacted theology, the humility of using checks and balances in research methods, and the grace of finding strategies to build bridges of commonality and community offer ways to reorient practical theological methodologies toward the development of self-theologizing agency among subaltern people. This study concludes with discussion of how these guideposts can not only benefit particular work with a community of Deaf Zimbabwean women, but also provide research and theological reflection in other subaltern contexts.

Politically motivated former prisoner groups: community activism and conflict transformation

Aims and objectives: This study represents the first sustained quantitative and qualitative attempt to involve both Republicans and Loyalists in an investigation of the impact of imprisonment and the role of politically motivated former prisoners in the process of conflict transformation in Northern Ireland. The overall aim of the project is to examine the ways in which groups of former prisoners are involved in peace-building and conflict transformation work and to evaluate the constraints and impediments placed upon their activities by the effects of the imprisonment process, politically motivated release and residual criminalisation. In pursuing the evaluation of the role of politically motivated former prisoners working within and without their own communities, the research has six specific objectives: To trace the evolution and development of former prisoner groups; To evaluate the impacts of imprisonment and release on the personal lives of former prisoners; To assess the constraints imposed on former prisoners as agents of change by the residual criminalisation arising from their status; To determine the potential of the former prisoner community in challenging intra-community tensions and evaluate their potential and actual contribution to conflict transformation at the inter-community level; To compare and contrast the effectiveness of Loyalist and Republican former prisoners as agents of change within their own communities; To explore the notion of former prisoners as agents of social and communal transformation within broader political processes through grounding the knowledge and practical experience of the former prisoner community within the broader conceptual context of conflict transformation.

Principles and prejudice: The erosion of fairness in admissibility determinations relating to historic child sexual abuse trials in Ireland

This thesis interrogates the construction of fairness to the accused in historic child sexual abuse trials in Ireland. The protection of fairness is a requirement of any trial that claims to adhere to the rule of law. Historic child sexual abuse trials, in which the charges relate to events that are alleged to have taken place decades previously, present serious challenges to the ability of the trial process to safeguard fairness. They are a litmus test of the courts’ commitment to fairness. The thesis finds that in historic abuse trials fairness to the accused has been significantly eroded and that therefore the Irish Courts have failed to respect the core of the rule of law in these most serious of prosecutions. The thesis scrutinises two bodies of case law, both of which deal with the issue of whether evidence should reach the jury. First, it examines the decisions on applications brought by defendants seeking to prohibit their trial. The courts hearing prohibition applications face a dilemma: how to ensure the defendant is not put at risk of an unfair trial, while at the same time recognising that delay in reporting is a defining feature of these cases. The thesis traces the development of the prohibition case law and tracks the shifting interpretations given to fairness by the courts. Second, the thesis examines what fairness means in the superior courts’ decisions regarding the admissibility of the following kinds of evidence, each of which presents particular challenges to the ability of the trial to safeguard fairness: evidence of multiple complainants; evidence of recovered memories and evidence of complainants’ therapeutic records. The thesis finds that in both bodies of case law the Irish courts have hollowed out the meaning of fairness. It makes proposals on how fairness might be placed at the heart of courts’ decisions on admissibility in historic abuse trials. The thesis concludes that the erosion of fairness in historic abuse trials is indicative of a move away from the liberal model of criminal justice. It cautions that unless fairness is prioritised in historic child sexual abuse trials the legitimacy of these trials and that of all Irish criminal trials will be contestable.

Inclusive education policy, the general allocation model and dilemmas of practice in primary schools

Background: Inclusive education is central to contemporary discourse internationally reflecting societies’ wider commitment to social inclusion. Education has witnessed transforming approaches that have created differing distributions of power, resource allocation and accountability. Multiple actors are being forced to consider changes to how key services and supports are organised. This research constitutes a case study situated within this broader social service dilemma of how to distribute finite resources equitably to meet individual need, while advancing inclusion. It focuses on the national directive with regard to inclusive educational practice for primary schools, Department of Education and Science Special Education Circular 02/05, which introduced the General Allocation Model (GAM) within the legislative context of the Education of Persons with Special Educational Needs (EPSEN) Act (Government of Ireland, 2004). This research could help to inform policy with ‘facts about what is happening on the ground’ (Quinn, 2013). Research Aims: The research set out to unearth the assumptions and definitions embedded within the policy document, to analyse how those who are at the coalface of policy, and who interface with multiple interests in primary schools, understand the GAM and respond to it, and to investigate its effects on students and their education. It examines student outcomes in the primary schools where the GAM was investigated. Methods and Sample The post-structural study acknowledges the importance of policy analysis which explicitly links the ‘bigger worlds’ of global and national policy contexts to the ‘smaller worlds’ of policies and practices within schools and classrooms. This study insists upon taking the detail seriously (Ozga, 1990). A mixed methods approach to data collection and analysis is applied. In order to secure the perspectives of key stakeholders, semi-structured interviews were conducted with primary school principals, class teachers and learning support/resource teachers (n=14) in three distinct mainstream, non-DEIS schools. Data from the schools and their environs provided a profile of students. The researcher then used the Pobal Maps Facility (available at www.pobal.ie) to identify the Small Area (SA) in which each student resides, and to assign values to each address based on the Pobal HP Deprivation Index (Haase and Pratschke, 2012). Analysis of the datasets, guided by the conceptual framework of the policy cycle (Ball, 1994), revealed a number of significant themes. Results: Data illustrate that the main model to support student need is withdrawal from the classroom under policy that espouses inclusion. Quantitative data, in particular, highlighted an association between segregated practice and lower socioeconomic status (LSES) backgrounds of students. Up to 83% of the students in special education programmes are from lower socio-economic status (LSES) backgrounds. In some schools 94% of students from LSES backgrounds are withdrawn from classrooms daily for special education. While the internal processes of schooling are not solely to blame for class inequalities, this study reveals the power of professionals to order children in school, which has implications for segregated special education practice. Such agency on the part of key actors in the context of practice relates to ‘local constructions of dis/ability’, which is influenced by teacher habitus (Bourdieu, 1984). The researcher contends that inclusive education has not resulted in positive outcomes for students from LSES backgrounds because it is built on faulty assumptions that focus on a psycho-medical perspective of dis/ability, that is, placement decisions do not consider the intersectionality of dis/ability with class or culture. This study argues that the student need for support is better understood as ‘home/school discontinuity’ not ‘disability’. Moreover, the study unearths the power of some parents to use social and cultural capital to ensure eligibility to enhanced resources. Therefore, a hierarchical system has developed in mainstream schools as a result of funding models to support need in inclusive settings. Furthermore, all schools in the study are ‘ordinary’ schools yet participants acknowledged that some schools are more ‘advantaged’, which may suggest that ‘ordinary’ schools serve to ‘bury class’ (Reay, 2010) as a key marker in allocating resources. The research suggests that general allocation models of funding to meet the needs of students demands a systematic approach grounded in reallocating funds from where they have less benefit to where they have more. The calculation of the composite Haase Value in respect of the student cohort in receipt of special education support adopted for this study could be usefully applied at a national level to ensure that the greatest level of support is targeted at greatest need. Conclusion: In summary, the study reveals that existing structures constrain and enable agents, whose interactions produce intended and unintended consequences. The study suggests that policy should be viewed as a continuous and evolving cycle (Ball, 1994) where actors in each of the social contexts have a shared responsibility in the evolution of education that is equitable, excellent and inclusive.

State building as strategy: An interrogation of NATO's comprehensive approach in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2011

The core of this thesis is the study of NATO’s Comprehensive Approach strategy to state building in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2011. It argues that this strategy sustained operational and tactical practices which were ineffective in responding to the evolved nature of the security problem. The thesis interrogates the Comprehensive Approach along ontological, empirical and epistemological lines and concludes that the failure of the Comprehensive Approach in the specific Afghan case is, in fact, indicative of underlying theoretical and pragmatic flaws which, therefore, generalize the dilemma. The research is pragmatic in nature, employing mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative) concurrently. Qualitative methods include research into primary and secondary literature sources supplemented with the author’s personal experiences in Afghanistan in 2008 and various NATO HQ and Canadian settings. Quantitative research includes an empirical case study focussing on NATO’s Afghan experience and its attempt at state building between 2006 and 2011. This study incorporates a historical review of NATO’s evolutionary involvement in Afghanistan incorporating the subject timeframe; offers an analysis of human development and governance related data mapped to expected outcomes of the Afghan National Development Strategy and NATO’s comprehensive campaign design; and interrogates the Comprehensive Approach strategy by means of an analysis of conceptual, institutional and capability gaps in the context of an integrated investigational framework. The results of the case study leads to an investigation of a series of research questions related to the potential impact of the failure of the Comprehensive Approach for NATO in Afghanistan and the limits of state building as a means of attaining security for the Alliance.

Prenegotiation public commitment in domestic and international bargaining

We use a formal bargaining model to examine why, in many domestic and international bargaining situations, one or both negotiators make public statements in front of their constituents committing themselves to obtaining certain benefits in the negotiations. We find that making public commitments provides bargaining leverage, when backing down from such commitments carries domestic political costs. However, when the two negotiators face fairly similar costs for violating a public commitment, a prisoner's dilemma is created in which both sides make high public demands which cannot be satisfied, and both negotiators would be better off if they could commit to not making public demands. However, making a public demand is a dominant strategy for each negotiator, and this leads to a suboptimal outcome. Escaping this prisoner's dilemma provides a rationale for secret negotiations. Testable hypotheses are derived from the nature of the commitments and agreements made in equilibrium.