The application of trend surface models to the analysis of time factors in Swiss cancer mortality.

To study different temporal components on cancer mortality (age, period and cohort) methods of graphic representation were applied to Swiss mortality data from 1950 to 1984. Maps using continuous slopes ("contour maps") and based on eight tones of grey according to the absolute distribution of rates were used to represent the surfaces defined by the matrix of various age-specific rates. Further, progressively more complex regression surface equations were defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age/cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific mortality rate). General patterns of trends in cancer mortality were thus identified, permitting definition of important cohort (e.g., upwards for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms, or downwards for stomach) or period (e.g., downwards for intestines or thyroid cancers) effects, besides the major underlying age component. For most cancer sites, even the lower order (1st to 3rd) models utilised provided excellent fitting, allowing immediate identification of the residuals (e.g., high or low mortality points) as well as estimates of first-order interactions between the three factors, although the parameters of the main effects remained still undetermined. Thus, the method should be essentially used as summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in (cancer) mortality, although they cannot conceptually solve the inherent problem of identifiability of the three components.

Parental post-traumatic reactions after premature birth: implications for sleeping and eating problems in the infant.

BACKGROUND: Progress in perinatal medicine has made it possible to increase the survival of very or extremely low birthweight infants. Developmental outcomes of surviving preterm infants have been analysed at the paediatric, neurological, cognitive, and behavioural levels, and a series of perinatal and environmental risk factors have been identified. The threat to the child's survival and invasive medical procedures can be very traumatic for the parents. Few empirical reports have considered post-traumatic stress reactions of the parents as a possible variable affecting a child's outcome. Some studies have described sleeping and eating problems as related to prematurity; these problems are especially critical for the parents. OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of post-traumatic reactions of the parents on sleeping and eating problems of the children. DESIGN: Fifty families with a premature infant (25-33 gestation weeks) and a control group of 25 families with a full term infant participated in the study. Perinatal risks were evaluated during the hospital stay. Mothers and fathers were interviewed when their children were 18 months old about the child's problems and filled in a perinatal post-traumatic stress disorder questionnaire (PPQ). RESULTS: The severity of the perinatal risks only partly predicts a child's problems. Independently of the perinatal risks, the intensity of the post-traumatic reactions of the parents is an important predictor of these problems. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the parental response to premature birth mediates the risks of later adverse outcomes. Preventive intervention should be promoted.

Sex differentials in Swiss cancer mortality.

Swiss national cancer mortality statistics from 1951 to 1984 and survival rates from the Vaud Cancer Registry datafile over the period 1974-1980 were considered in terms of sex ratios. Overall age-standardized cancer mortality for population aged 35-64 showed only a moderate decline in males (from 230 to 221/100,000), but a substantial one in females (from 191 to 152/100,000). Mortality from most cancer sites (except gallbladder and thyroid) was persistently higher in males, the male/female ratio ranging between 1.2 for intestines, skin, brain and lympho-reticular neoplasms to about 2 for stomach or pancreas, up to 7-10 for lung and cancers related to tobacco and alcohol (mouth or pharynx, oesophagus). The sex ratio for lung cancer increased between the early 1950's and the mid 1960's, but noticeably declined thereafter, probably reflecting trends in smoking prevalence among subsequent generations of Swiss males and females. Less obvious is the substantial increase in the sex ratio for liver cancer (from 1.6 to 5.7), which was evident in younger middle age, too. Population-based cancer survival statistics indicated that for most common sites rates were appreciably higher in females than in males. Thus, better survival explains part of the advantage in cancer mortality for women. This can be related to earlier diagnosis, better compliance or responsiveness to treatment, although there is no obvious single interpretation for this generalized more favourable pattern in females.

Tabagisme, obésité et diabète: une interaction cliniquement importante [Smoking, obesity and diabetes: a clinically important interaction].

Smoking, obesity and diabetes are among the leading cause of premature death worldwide. Smokers have globally a lower body weight compared with non smokers but they tend to accumulate more fat in the abdomen. Most smokers gain weight when they quit smoking, however this does not seem to diminish the health benefits associated with smoking cessation. Smoking increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Among people with diabetes, smoking significantly increases the risks of complications and mortality. Interventions with pharmacologic help should be offered to all smokers, with or without diabetes, in order to increase smoking cessation rates and limit weight gain.

Overall and cause-specific mortality in GH-deficient adults on GH replacement.

OBJECTIVE: Hypopituitarism is associated with an increased mortality rate but the reasons underlying this have not been fully elucidated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate mortality and associated factors within a large GH-replaced population of hypopituitary patients. DESIGN: In KIMS (Pfizer International Metabolic Database) 13,983 GH-deficient patients with 69,056 patient-years of follow-up were available. METHODS: This study analysed standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) by Poisson regression. IGF1 SDS was used as an indicator of adequacy of GH replacement. Statistical significance was set to P<0.05. RESULTS: All-cause mortality was 13% higher compared with normal population rates (SMR, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.24). Significant associations were female gender, younger age at follow-up, underlying diagnosis of Cushing's disease, craniopharyngioma and aggressive tumour and presence of diabetes insipidus. After controlling for confounding factors, there were statistically significant negative associations between IGF1 SDS after 1, 2 and 3 years of GH replacement and SMR. For cause-specific mortality there was a negative association between 1-year IGF1 SDS and SMR for deaths from cardiovascular diseases (P=0.017) and malignancies (P=0.044). CONCLUSIONS: GH-replaced patients with hypopituitarism demonstrated a modest increase in mortality rate; this appears lower than that previously published in GH-deficient patients. Factors associated with increased mortality included female gender, younger attained age, aetiology and lower IGF1 SDS during therapy. These data indicate that GH replacement in hypopituitary adults with GH deficiency may be considered a safe treatment.

Circadian and circaseptan patterns of natality and perinatal mortality of infants with different birth weights

OBJECTIVE. Data on human natality, stillbirth and perinatal mortality from Switzerland (1979-1987), available in four birthweight categories, are reexamined to assess any about-weekly (circaseptan) and changes in about-daily (circadian) patterns in central Europe over a century and a halfDESIGN. Retrospective analyses on archived data.SETTING. Federal Office of Statistics for Switzerland.RESULTS. In addition to prominent circadians, weekly patterns are also documented.CONCLUSION. Exogenous variations, prominent in early extrauterine life, such as changes of scheduling in obstetrics, may contribute to circadian and cireaseptan natality patterns. Information on these patterns serves in the optimization of neonatal care. Partly endogenous, partly physical environmental aspects, at least of about-weekly patterns, remain to be elucidated in series consisting exclusively of spontaneous parturitions.

Do different measures of early life socioeconomic circumstances predict adult mortality? Evidence from the British Whitehall II and French GAZEL studies

BACKGROUND: Father's occupational position, education and height have all been used to examine the effects of adverse early life socioeconomic circumstances on health, but it remains unknown whether they predict mortality equally well. METHODS: We used pooled data on 18,393 men and 7060 women from the Whitehall II and GAZEL cohorts to examine associations between early life socioeconomic circumstances and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: During the 20-y follow-up period, 1487 participants died. Education had a monotonic association with all mortality outcomes; the age, sex and cohort-adjusted HR for the lowest versus the highest educational group was 1.45 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.69) for all-cause mortality. There was evidence of a U-shaped association between height and all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality robust to adjustment for the other indicators (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.93 for those shorter than average and HR 1.36, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.88 for those taller than average for cardiovascular mortality). Greater all-cause and cancer mortality was observed in participants whose father's occupational position was manual rather than non-manual (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.23 for all-cause mortality), but the risks were attenuated after adjusting for education and height. CONCLUSIONS: The association between early life socioeconomic circumstances and mortality depends on the socioeconomic indicator used and the cause of death examined. Height is not a straightforward measure of early life socioeconomic circumstances as taller people do not have a health advantage for all mortality outcomes.

Seasonality and cyclic tendency of mortality in a Pyrenean population

Las características de la mortalidad Influyen decisivamente en la estructura demográfica de las poblaciones, regida por diferentes factores: internos (rasgos específicos genéticos y culturales), externos (características del ecosistema) e intermedios (capacidad de la población de autoajustarse al ambiente). El estudio de la distribución estacional de las 3313 defunciones registradas en la Villa de El Pont de Suert (Alta Ribagorça, Cataluña) desde 1664 evidencia la importancia de todos estos factores. Los patrones de distribución muestran el Influjo de las condiciones climáticas, de los ambientes epidemiológicos, así como de las transformaciones socioeconómicas y demográficas. El modelo de tendencia cíclica en la mortalidad, común a muchas poblaciones ibéricas de montaña, no se evidencia en esta población.

The decline in breast cancer mortality in Europe: an update (to 2009).

We updated trends in breast cancer mortality in Europe up to the late 2000's. In the EU, age-adjusted (world standard population) breast cancer mortality rates declined by 6.9% between 2002 and 2006, from 17.9 to 16.7/100,000. The largest falls were in northern European countries, but more recent declines were also observed in central and eastern Europe. In 2007, all major European countries had overall breast cancer rates between 15 and 19/100,000. In relative terms, the declines in mortality were larger at younger age (-11.6% at age 20-49 years between 2002 and 2007 in the EU), and became smaller with advancing age (-6.6% at age 50-69, -5.0% at age 70-79 years). The present report confirms and further quantifies the persisting steady fall in breast cancer mortality in Europe over the last 25-30 years, which is mainly due to advancements in the therapy.

Patterns and trends in esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in Europe (1980-2011) and predictions to 2015

BACKGROUND: Over the last few decades, esophageal cancer incidence and mortality trends varied substantially across Europe, with important differences between sexes and the two main histological subtypes, squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and adenocarcinoma (EAC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: To monitor recent esophageal cancer mortality trends and to compute short-term predictions in the European Union (EU) and selected European countries, we analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 1980-2011. We also analyzed incidence trends and relative weights of ESCC and EAC across Europe using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. RESULTS: Long-term decreasing trends were observed for male esophageal cancer mortality in several southern and western European countries, whereas in central Europe mortality increased until the mid-1990s and started to stabilize or decline over the last years. In some eastern and northern countries, the rates were still increasing. Mortality among European women remained comparatively low and showed stable or decreasing trends in most countries. Between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009, esophageal cancer mortality declined by 7% (from 5.34 to 4.99/100 000) in EU men, and by 3% (from 1.12 to 1.09/100 000) in EU women. Predictions to 2015 show persistent declines in mortality rates for men in the EU overall, and stable rates for EU women, with rates for 2015 of 4.5/100 000 men (about 22 300 deaths) and 1.1/100 000 women (about 7400 deaths). In northern Europe, EAC is now the predominant histological type among men, while for European women ESCC is more common and corresponding rates are still increasing in several countries. CONCLUSION(S): The observed trends reflect the variations in alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and overweight across European countries.

Bifidobacterium longum Bacteremia in Preterm Infants Receiving Probiotics.

Administration of probiotics to premature newborns has been shown to prevent necrotizing enterocolitis and reduce all-cause mortality. In our hospital, we documented 2 cases of Bifidobacterium longum subspecies infantis bacteremia in newborns receiving probiotics. By comparative genomics, we confirmed that the strains isolated from each patient originated from the probiotics.

Maternal interactive behaviour as a predictor of preschoolers' attachment representations among full term and premature samples.

BACKGROUND: Associations between maternal sensitivity and child attachment have been established in many samples, but the strength of the association varies across populations. The sensitivity-attachment link has never been examined at the level of representations nor among premature samples. OBJECTIVE: The present study is aimed at exploring associations between maternal interactive behaviour and children's attachment representations in a population of preterm and full-term infants. METHOD: Maternal interactive behaviour was assessed at 6 and 18 months (Ainsworth Sensitivity Scale & Care Index) and children's attachment representations were measured at 42 months (Attachment Story Completion Task) in a sample of preterm (N=48) and full-term (N=23) infants. RESULTS: Maternal unresponsiveness at 6 months and sensitivity at 18 months explained 54% of the variance of disorganized attachment representations in the full-term group but was not significantly related to attachment patterns in the preterm group. CONCLUSION: These results corroborate previous work on the causes of disorganized attachment and also point to the need to consider the development of attachment differently for children evolving in specific developmental contexts. They especially stress the importance of distinguishing between risk factors associated with the mother as opposed to the child.

Risk factors of stroke mortality in the African region: a cohort study

Background: Population-based cohort studies of risk factors of stroke are scarce in developing countries and none has been done in the African region. We conducted a longitudinal study in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, east of Kenya), a middle-income island state where the majority of the population is of African descent. Such data in Africa are important for international comparison and for advocacy in the region. Methods: Three examination surveys of cardiovascular risk factors were performed in independent samples representative of the general population aged 25-64 in 1989, 1994 and 2004 (n=1081, 1067, and 1255, respectively). Baseline risk factors data were linked with cause-specific mortality from vital statistics up to May 2007 (all deaths are medically certified in the Seychelles and kept in an electronic database). We considered stroke (any type) as a cause of death if the diagnosis was reported in any of the 4 fields in the death certificates for underlying and concomitant causes of death. Results. Among the 2479 persons aged 35-64 at baseline, 280 died including 56 with stroke during follow up (maximum: 18.2 years; mean: 10.2 years). In this age range, age-adjusted mortality rates (/100'000/year) were 969 for all cause and 187 for stroke; age-adjusted prevalence of high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg) was 48%. In multivariate Cox survival time regression, stroke mortality was increased by 18% and 35% for a 10-mmHg increase in systolic, respectively diastolic BP (p<0.001). Stroke mortality was also associated with age, smoking ≥5 cigarettes vs. no smoking (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.2-4.8) and diabetes (HR: 1.9; 1.02-3.6) but not with sex, LDL-cholesterol intake, alcohol intake and professional occupation. Conclusion. This first population-based cohort study in the African region demonstrates high mortality rates from stroke in middle-aged adults and confirms associations with high BP and other risk factors. This emphasizes the importance of reducing BP and other modifiable risk factors in high risk individuals and in the general population as a main strategy to reduce the burden of stroke.

Mandatory infectious diseases consultation for MRSA bacteremia is associated with reduced mortality.

OBJECTIVES: Although infectious disease (ID) consultation has been associated with lower mortality in Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections, it is still not mandatory in many centers. This study aimed at assessing the impact of ID consultation on diagnostic and therapeutic management of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) bacteremia. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of all patients with MRSA bacteremia from 2001 to 2010. ID consultations were obtained on request between 2001 and 2006 and became mandatory since 2007. RESULTS: 156 episodes of MRSA bacteremia were included, mostly from central venous catheter (32%) and skin and soft tissue (19%) infections. ID consultation coverage was 58% between 2001 and 2006 and 91% between 2007 and 2010. ID consultation was associated with more echocardiography (59% vs. 26%, p < 0.01), vancomycin trough level measurements (99% vs. 77%, p < 0.01), follow-up blood cultures (71% vs. 50%, p = 0.05), deep-seated infections (43% vs. 16%, p < 0.01), more frequent infection source control (83% vs. 57%, p = 0.03), a longer duration of MRSA-active therapy (median and IQR: 17 days, 13-30, vs. 12, 3-14, p < 0.01) and a 20% reduction in 7-day, 30-day and in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: ID consultation was associated with a better management of patients with MRSA bacteremia and a reduced mortality.