Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

Comparing Bone Microarchitecture by Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) in Caucasian American Women with and Without Osteoporotic Fractures.

Several cross-sectional studies have shown the ability of the TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in European populations. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in a large female Caucasian population in the USA. This was a case-control study of 2,165 Caucasian American women aged 40 and older. Patients with illness or taking medications known to affect bone metabolism were excluded. Those in the fracture group (n = 289) had at least one low-energy fracture. BMD was measured at L1-L4, TBS calculated directly from the same DXA image. Descriptive statistics and inferential tests for difference were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were created to investigate possible association between independent variables and the status of fracture. Odds ratios per standard deviation decrease (OR) and areas under the ROC curve were calculated for discriminating parameters. Weak correlations were observed between TBS and BMD and between TBS and BMI (r = 0.33 and -0.17, respectively, p < 0.01). Mean age, weight, BMD and TBS were significantly different between control and fracture groups (all p ≤ 0.05), whereas no difference was noted for BMI or height. After adjusting for age, weight, BMD, smoking, and maternal and family history of fracture, TBS (but not BMD) remained a significant predictor of fracture: OR 1.28[1.13-1.46] even after adjustment. In a US female population, TBS again was able to discriminate between those with and those without fractures, even after adjusting for other clinical risk factors.

Growth arrest-specific gene 6 (GAS6) as an intra-hospital mortality predictor for patients in septic shock

Aim: Gas6 is known to be elevated in sepsis, correlating with the severity of infection and organ failure. We aimed to investigate the performance of Gas6 plasma levels at admission to predict the risk of mortality in a cohort of septic patients.Methods: We used prospectively collected data and plasma samples from the 'Sepsis Cohorte Romande'. Gas6 level was measured by ELISA at admission and expressed in percentage relative to its level in a pool of normal plasma.Results: Non-survivors (n = 19) presented higher Gas6 levels than survivors (n = 78; median 287% vs. 158%, IQR 182 and 119 respectively; P = 0.0003). Gas6 correlated positively with different cytokine and was the best mortality predictor, as shown by the ROC curves area (Fig. 1). In patients with septic shock (n = 67), using 249% as a cut-off value, Gas6 measurement had a specificity of 81% and a sensitivity of 68% for predicting mortality. ROC curve area was 0.76. Positive and negative predictive values were 59% and 87%, respectively.Conclusion: Thus, Gas6 plasma level at admission might be a useful tool to predict mortality in patients with septic shock. Nevertheless, independent association of Gas6 level with mortality still needs to be assessed. Although Gas6 hold promise as an early sepsis marker, its precise implication in sepsis remains to be elucidated.

Oxygen uptake kinetics and middle distance swimming performance.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine whether V˙O(2) kinetics and specifically, the time constant of transitions from rest to heavy (τ(p)H) and severe (τ(p)S) exercise intensities, are related to middle distance swimming performance. DESIGN: Fourteen highly trained male swimmers (mean ± SD: 20.5 ± 3.0 yr; 75.4 ± 12.4 kg; 1.80 ± 0.07 m) performed an discontinuous incremental test, as well as square wave transitions for heavy and severe swimming intensities, to determine V˙O(2) kinetics parameters using two exponential functions. METHODS: All the tests involved front-crawl swimming with breath-by-breath analysis using the Aquatrainer swimming snorkel. Endurance performance was recorded as the time taken to complete a 400 m freestyle swim within an official competition (T400), one month from the date of the other tests. RESULTS: T400 (Mean ± SD) (251.4 ± 12.4 s) was significantly correlated with τ(p)H (15.8 ± 4.8s; r=0.62; p=0.02) and τ(p)S (15.8 ± 4.7s; r=0.61; p=0.02). The best single predictor of 400 m freestyle time, out of the variables that were assessed, was the velocity at V˙O(2max)vV˙O(2max), which accounted for 80% of the variation in performance between swimmers. However, τ(p)H and V˙O(2max) were also found to influence the prediction of T400 when they were included in a regression model that involved respiratory parameters only. CONCLUSIONS: Faster kinetics during the primary phase of the V˙O(2) response is associated with better performance during middle-distance swimming. However, vV˙O(2max) appears to be a better predictor of T400.

Health risk behavior pattern among students from Cartagena, Colombia: prevalence and associated variables

The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and variables associated with the pattern of risky health behavior (PRHB) among adolescent students in Cartagena, Colombia. A cross-sectional study was designed to investigate PRHB in a random cluster sample of students from middle and high schools. The associations were adjusted by logistic regression. A total of 2,625 students participated in this research, with ages from 10 to 20 years, mean=13.8 years (SD=2.0), and 54.3% were women. A total of 332 students reported PRHB (12.7%, 95%CI 11.4–14.0). Age over 15 years (OR=2.19, 95%CI 1.72–2.79), not being heterosexual (OR=1.98, 95%CI 1.36-2.87), poor/mediocre academic performance (OR=1.87, 95%CI 1.47–2.38), family dysfunction (OR=1.78, 95%CI 1.40–2.28) and male gender (OR=1.58, 95%CI 1.24–2.01) were associated with PRHB. One in every eight students presented a PRHB. It is important to pay greater attention to students who are over 15 years of age, male, not heterosexual, with a poor/mediocre academic performance and a dysfunctional family.

Analysis of variables that are not directly observable: influence on decision-making during the research process

The sample dimension, types of variables, format used for measurement, and construction of instruments to collect valid and reliable data must be considered during the research process. In the social and health sciences, and more specifically in nursing, data-collection instruments are usually composed of latent variables or variables that cannot be directly observed. Such facts emphasize the importance of deciding how to measure study variables (using an ordinal scale or a Likert or Likert-type scale). Psychometric scales are examples of instruments that are affected by the type of variables that comprise them, which could cause problems with measurement and statistical analysis (parametric tests versus non-parametric tests). Hence, investigators using these variables must rely on suppositions based on simulation studies or recommendations based on scientific evidence in order to make the best decisions.

Rehabilitation outcomes for orthopaedic trauma individuals as measured by the INTERMED.

PURPOSE: Bio-psychosocial characteristics of patients after orthopaedic traumas may be a strong predictor of poor outcome. The objective of this prospective study was to assess whether the INTERMED, a measure of bio-psychosocial complexity, identifies complex inpatients during rehabilitation including vocational aspects with a poor outcome 1 year after discharge. METHOD: At entry, the INTERMED scores of 118 inpatients were used to assign patients to the high or low complexity group. A questionnaire evaluated 1 year after discharge whether patients: (1) returned to work, (2) still have therapies, (3) take psychoactive drugs, (4) take medication against pain and (5) were satisfied with vocational therapy. Univariate logistic regressions identified which variables predict INTERMED case complexity during hospitalisation as well as predictors (i.e. INTERMED case complexity, French as preferred language, duration of the disability, accident at work, work qualification, severity of the injury, psychiatric co-morbidities, pain) of the five measured outcomes 1 year after discharge. RESULTS: During hospitalisation, the high complexity group was associated with a high prevalence of psychiatric co-morbidities, a higher level of pain and a weaker perception of treatment effects. One year after discharge, the INTERMED was the sole variable to predict all outcomes. CONCLUSION: The INTERMED identifies complex patients during vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma and is a good predictor of poor outcome 1 year after discharge.

Urinary incontinence in the prediction of falls in hospitalized elderly

Objective Analyzing the effect of urinary incontinence as a predictor of the incidence of falls among hospitalized elderly. Method Concurrent cohort study where 221 elderly inpatients were followed from the date of admission until discharge, death or fall. The Kaplan-Meier methods, the incidence density and the Cox regression model were used for the survival analysis and the assessment of the association between the exposure variable and the other variables. Results Urinary incontinence was a strong predictor of falls in the surveyed elderly, and was associated with shorter time until the occurrence of event. Urinary incontinence, concomitant with gait and balance dysfunction and use of antipsychotics was associated with falls. Conclusion Measures to prevent the risk of falls specific to hospitalized elderly patients who have urinary incontinence are necessary.



HIV-1 Subtype Is an Independent Predictor of Reverse Transcriptase Mutation K65R in HIV-1 Patients Treated with Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Including Tenofovir.

Subtype-dependent selection of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase resistance mutation K65R was previously observed in cell culture and small clinical investigations. We compared K65R prevalence across subtypes A, B, C, F, G, and CRF02_AG separately in a cohort of 3,076 patients on combination therapy including tenofovir. K65R selection was significantly higher in HIV-1 subtype C. This could not be explained by clinical and demographic factors in multivariate analysis, suggesting subtype sequence-specific K65R pathways.

Adherence to nutritional recommendations and sociodemographic variables in patients with diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVETo determine if there is a relationship between adherence to nutritional recommendations and sociodemographic variables in Brazilian patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.METHODSCross-sectional observational study using a stratified random sample of 423 individuals. The Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) was used, and the Fisher's exact test was applied with 95% confidence interval (p<0.05).RESULTSOf the 423 subjects, 66.7% were women, mean age of 62.4 years (SD = 11.8), 4.3 years of schooling on average (SD = 3.6) and family income of less than two minimum wages. There was association between the female gender and adherence to diet with adequate cholesterol content (OR: 2.03; CI: 1.23; 3.34), between four and more years of education and adherence to fractionation of meals (OR: 1 92 CI: 1.19; 3.10), and income of less than two minimum wages and adherence to diet with adequate cholesterol content (OR: 1.74; CI: 1.03, 2.95).CONCLUSIONAdherence to nutritional recommendations was associated with the female gender, more than four years of education and family income of less than two minimum wages.

Heart failure as a predictor of functional dependence in hospitalized elderly

AbstractOBJECTIVEIdentify whether Heart Failure (HF) is a predictor of functional dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (BADL) in hospitalized elderly.METHODSWe investigated medical records and assessed dependence to BADL (by the Katz Index) of 100 elderly admitted to a geriatric ward of a university hospital. In order to verify if HF is a predictor of functional dependence, linear regression analyzes were performed.RESULTSThe prevalence of HF was 21%; 95% of them were dependent for BADLs. Bathing was the most committed ADL. HF is a predictor of dependence in hospitalized elderlies, increasing the chance of functional decline by 5 times (95% CI, 0.94-94.48), the chance of functional deterioration by 3.5 times (95% CI, 1.28-11.66; p <0.02) and reducing 0.79 points in the Katz Index score (p <0.05).CONCLUSIONHF is a dependency predictor of ADL in hospitalized elderly, who tend to be more dependent, especially for bathing.

Adherence as a predictor of the development of class-specific resistance mutations: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Non-adherence is one of the strongest predictors of therapeutic failure in HIV-positive patients. Virologic failure with subsequent emergence of resistance reduces future treatment options and long-term clinical success. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study including patients starting new class of antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2003 and 2010. Participants were naïve to ART class and completed ≥1 adherence questionnaire prior to resistance testing. Outcomes were development of any IAS-USA, class-specific, or M184V mutations. Associations between adherence and resistance were estimated using logistic regression models stratified by ART class. RESULTS: Of 314 included individuals, 162 started NNRTI and 152 a PI/r regimen. Adherence was similar between groups with 85% reporting adherence ≥95%. Number of new mutations increased with increasing non-adherence. In NNRTI group, multivariable models indicated a significant linear association in odds of developing IAS-USA (odds ratio (OR) 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-2.67) or class-specific (OR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.00-2.70) mutations. Levels of drug resistance were considerably lower in PI/r group and adherence was only significantly associated with M184V mutations (OR 8.38, 95% CI: 1.26-55.70). Adherence was significantly associated with HIV RNA in PI/r but not NNRTI regimens. CONCLUSION: Therapies containing PI/r appear more forgiving to incomplete adherence compared with NNRTI regimens, which allow higher levels of resistance, even with adherence above 95%. However, in failing PI/r regimens good adherence may prevent accumulation of further resistance mutations and therefore help to preserve future drug options. In contrast, adherence levels have little impact on NNRTI treatments once the first mutations have emerged.

Fusion of data sets in multivariate linear regression with errors-in-variables

We consider the application of normal theory methods to the estimation and testing of a general type of multivariate regressionmodels with errors--in--variables, in the case where various data setsare merged into a single analysis and the observable variables deviatepossibly from normality. The various samples to be merged can differ on the set of observable variables available. We show that there is a convenient way to parameterize the model so that, despite the possiblenon--normality of the data, normal--theory methods yield correct inferencesfor the parameters of interest and for the goodness--of--fit test. Thetheory described encompasses both the functional and structural modelcases, and can be implemented using standard software for structuralequations models, such as LISREL, EQS, LISCOMP, among others. An illustration with Monte Carlo data is presented.

Growth arrest-specific gene 6 » (Gas6) as an intra-hospital mortality predictor for patients in septic shock

Aim: Gas6 is known to be elevated in sepsis, correlating with the severity of infection and¦organ failure. We aimed to investigate the performance of Gas6 plasma levels at¦admission to predict the risk of mortality in a cohort of septic patients.¦Methods: We used prospectively collected data and plasma samples from the "Sepsis¦Cohorte Romande". Gas6 level was measured by ELISA at admission and expressed in¦percentage relative to its level in a pool of normal plasma.¦Results: Non-survivors (n=21) presented higher Gas6 levels than survivors (n=73) (median¦258% vs 164%, IQR 194 and 117 respectively) (p=0.0027). Gas6 correlated positively with¦different cytokines and was the best mortality predictor, as shown by the ROC curves area.¦In patients with septic shock (n=66), using 249% as a cut-off value, Gas6 measurement¦had a specificity of 67% and a sensitivity of 81% for predicting mortality. ROC curve area¦was 0.75. Positive and negative predictive values were 57% and 87%, respectively.¦Conclusion: Thus, Gas6 plasma level at admission might be a useful tool to predict¦mortality in patients with septic shock. Although Gas6 hold promise as an early sepsis¦marker, its precise implication in sepsis remains to be elucidated. Our observation should¦be further investigated in larger prospective clinical trials.