Performance evaluation in Bayesian adaptive randomization

Bayesian adaptive randomization (BAR) is an attractive approach to allocate more patients to the putatively superior arm based on the interim data while maintains good statistical properties attributed to randomization. Under this approach, patients are adaptively assigned to a treatment group based on the probability that the treatment is better. The basic randomization scheme can be modified by introducing a tuning parameter, replacing the posterior estimated response probability, setting a boundary to randomization probabilities. Under randomization settings comprised of the above modifications, operating characteristics, including type I error, power, sample size, imbalance of sample size, interim success rate, and overall success rate, were evaluated through simulation. All randomization settings have low and comparable type I errors. Increasing tuning parameter decreases power, but increases imbalance of sample size and interim success rate. Compared with settings using the posterior probability, settings using the estimated response rates have higher power and overall success rate, but less imbalance of sample size and lower interim success rate. Bounded settings have higher power but less imbalance of sample size than unbounded settings. All settings have better performance in the Bayesian design than in the frequentist design. This simulation study provided practical guidance on the choice of how to implement the adaptive design. ^

Performance recovery from exercise: A review from a statistical point of view

Background. Research into methods for recovery from fatigue due to exercise is a popular topic among sport medicine, kinesiology and physical therapy. However, both the quantity and quality of studies and a clear solution of recovery are lacking. An analysis of the statistical methods in the existing literature of performance recovery can enhance the quality of research and provide some guidance for future studies. Methods: A literature review was performed using SCOPUS, SPORTDiscus, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library and Science Citation Index Expanded databases to extract the studies related to performance recovery from exercise of human beings. Original studies and their statistical analysis for recovery methods including Active Recovery, Cryotherapy/Contrast Therapy, Massage Therapy, Diet/Ergogenics, and Rehydration were examined. Results: The review produces a Research Design and Statistical Method Analysis Summary. Conclusion: Research design and statistical methods can be improved by using the guideline from the Research Design and Statistical Method Analysis Summary. This summary table lists the potential issues and suggested solutions, such as, sample size calculation, sports specific and research design issues consideration, population and measure markers selection, statistical methods for different analytical requirements, equality of variance and normality of data, post hoc analyses and effect size calculation.^

The relationship between hospital financial performance and information technology integration strategy selection

In light of the new healthcare regulations, hospitals are increasingly reevaluating their IT integration strategies to meet expanded healthcare information exchange requirements. Nevertheless, hospital executives do not have all the information they need to differentiate between the available strategies and recognize what may better fit their organizational needs. ^ In the interest of providing the desired information, this study explored the relationships between hospital financial performance, integration strategy selection, and strategy change. The integration strategies examined – applied as binary logistic regression dependent variables and in the order from most to least integrated – were Single-Vendor (SV), Best-of-Suite (BoS), and Best-of-Breed (BoB). In addition, the financial measurements adopted as independent variables for the models were two administrative labor efficiency and six industry standard financial ratios designed to provide a broad proxy of hospital financial performance. Furthermore, descriptive statistical analyses were carried out to evaluate recent trends in hospital integration strategy change. Overall six research questions were proposed for this study. ^ The first research question sought to answer if financial performance was related to the selection of integration strategies. The next questions, however, explored whether hospitals were more likely to change strategies or remain the same when there was no external stimulus to change, and if they did change, they would prefer strategies closer to the existing ones. These were followed by a question that inquired if financial performance was also related to strategy change. Nevertheless, rounding up the questions, the last two probed if the new Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) Act had any impact on the frequency and direction of strategy change. ^ The results confirmed that financial performance is related to both IT integration strategy selection and strategy change, while concurred with prior studies that suggested hospital and environmental characteristics are associated factors as well. Specifically this study noted that the most integrated SV strategy is related to increased administrative labor efficiency and the hybrid BoS strategy is associated with improved financial health (based on operating margin and equity financing ratios). On the other hand, no financial indicators were found to be related to the least integrated BoB strategy, except for short-term liquidity (current ratio) when involving strategy change. ^ Ultimately, this study concluded that when making IT integration strategy decisions hospitals closely follow the resource dependence view of minimizing uncertainty. As each integration strategy may favor certain organizational characteristics, hospitals traditionally preferred not to make strategy changes and when they did, they selected strategies that were more closely related to the existing ones. However, as new regulations further heighten revenue uncertainty while require increased information integration, moving forward, as evidence already suggests a growing trend of organizations shifting towards more integrated strategies, hospitals may be more limited in their strategy selection choices.^

Correlates of post-diagnosis weight management among female breast cancer survivors: An Internet survey

Objective. Weight gain after cancer treatment is associated with breast cancer recurrence. In order to prolong cancer-free survivorship, interventions to manage post-diagnosis weight are sometimes conducted. However, little is known about what factors are associated with weight management behaviors among cancer survivors. In this study, we examined associations of demographic, clinical, and psychosocial variables with weight management behaviors in female breast cancer survivors. We also examined whether knowledge about post-diagnosis weight gain and its risk is associated with weight management behaviors. ^ Methods. 251 female breast cancer survivors completed an internet survey. They reported current performance of three weight management behaviors (general weight management, physical activity, and healthy diet). We also measured attitude, elf-efficacy, knowledge and social support regarding these behaviors along with demographic and clinical characteristics. ^ Results. Multiple regression models for the weight management behaviors explained 17% of the variance in general weight management, 45% in physical activity and 34% in healthy dieting. The models had 9–14 predictor variables which differed in each model. The variables associated with all three behaviors were social support and self-efficacy. Self-efficacy showed the strongest contribution in all models. The knowledge about weight gain and its risks was not associated with any weight management behaviors. However, women who obtained the knowledge during cancer treatment were more likely to engage in physical activity and healthy dieting. ^ Conclusions. The findings suggest that an intervention designed to increase their self-efficacy to manage weight, to be physically active, to eat healthy will effectively promote survivors to engage in these behaviors. Knowledge may motivate women to manage post-diagnosis weight about risk if information is provided during cancer treatment.^

Properties of seawater and particulate matter from a FRRF instrument, operating in a flow-through mode on the continuous surface water sampling system during the Tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013

The Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013) sampled the world oceans on board a 36 m long schooner, collecting environmental data and organisms from viruses to planktonic metazoans for later analyses using modern sequencing and state-of-the-art imaging technologies. Tara Oceans Data are particularly suited to study the genetic, morphological and functional diversity of plankton. The present data set provides continuous measurements made with a FRRF instrument, operating in a flow-through mode during the 2009-2012 part of the expedition. It operates by exciting chlorophyll fluorescence using a series of short flashes of controlled energy and time intervals (Kolber et al, 1998). The fluorescence transients produced by this excitation signal were analysed in real-time to provide estimates of abundance of photosynthetic pigments, the photosynthetic yields (Fv/Fm), the functional absorption cross section (a proxy for efficiency of photosynthetic energy acquisition), the kinetics of photosynthetic electron transport between Photosystem II and Photosystem I, and the size of the PQ pool. These parameters were measured at excitation wavelength of 445 nm, 470nm, 505 nm, and 535 nm, allowing to assess the presence and the photosynthetic performance of different phytoplankton taxa based on the spectral composition of their light harvesting pigments. The FRRF-derived photosynthetic characteristics were used to calculate the initial slope, the half saturation, and the maximum level of Photosynthesis vs Irradiance relationship. FRRF data were acquired continuously, at 1-minute time intervals.

Performance assessment of a kinetically-powered network for herd localization

Developing a herd localization system capable to operate unattended in communication-challenged areas arises from the necessity of improving current systems in terms of cost, autonomy or any other facilities that a certain target group (or overall users) may demand. A network architecture of herd localization is proposed with its corresponding hardware and a methodology to assess performance in different operating conditions. The system is designed taking into account an eventual environmental impact hence most nodes are simple, cheap and kinetically powered from animal movements-neither batteries nor sophisticated processor chips are needed. Other network elements integrating GPS and batteries operate with selectable duty cycles, thus reducing maintenance duties. Equipment has been tested on Scandinavian reindeer in Lapland and its element modeling is integrated into a simulator to analyze such localization network applicability for different use cases. Performance indicators (detection frequency, localization accuracy and delay) are fitted to assess the overall performance; system relative costs are enclosed also for a range of deployments.

Performance of pressure control valves and flow meters precision in operational irrigation-water balance accuracy

In pressure irrigation-water distribution networks, pressure regulating devices for controlling the discharged flow rate by irrigation units are needed due to the variability of flow rate. In addition, applied water volume is used controlled operating the valve during a calculated time interval, and assuming constant flow rate. In general, a pressure regulating valve PRV is the commonly used pressure regulating device in a hydrant, which, also, executes the open and close function. A hydrant feeds several irrigation units, requiring a wide range in flow rate. In addition, some flow meters are also available, one as a component of the hydrant and the rest are placed downstream. Every land owner has one flow meter for each group of field plots downstream the hydrant. Its lecture could be used for refining the water balance but its accuracy must be taken into account. Ideal PRV performance would maintain a constant downstream pressure. However, the true performance depends on both upstream pressure and the discharged flow rate. The objective of this work is to asses the influence of the performance on the applied volume during the whole irrigation events in a year. The results of the study have been obtained introducing the flow rate into a PRV model. Variations on flow rate are simulated by taking into account the consequences of variations on climate conditions and also decisions in irrigation operation, such us duration and frequency application. The model comprises continuity, dynamic and energy equations of the components of the PRV.

Análisis de las diferencias en el crecimiento vegetativo, en los componentes del rendimiento y en la composición de las uvas y vinos del cv. cabernet sauvignon (vitis vinifera L.), producidos por el déficit hídrico durante pre-envero y post-envero

La presente Tesis Doctoral se realizó con el fin de estimar conjuntamente la respuesta agronómica y fisiológica de la vid (Vitis vinifera L.), así como los efectos sobre la evolución de la maduración, composición y la calidad de la uva y del vino, bajo la aplicación de diferentes déficit hídricos en pre-envero y post-envero, dentro de un marco de referencia de cambio climático. La variación climática que prevén los estudios sobre el cambio climático, resulta un factor decisivo en la eficiencia del uso del agua en la vid. En zonas cálidas, las estrategias de cultivo del viñedo frente al cambio climático deben de ir dirigidas a atenuar sus efectos sobre el crecimiento y el desarrollo de la vid, haciéndose imprescindible el estudio pormenorizado del déficit hídrico como factor decisivo en la obtención de las uvas adecuadas, ya que son la clave indispensable para el éxito en la elaboración del vino, y de forma muy especial en los vinos enfocados a un sector de alta calidad. El ensayo se llevó a cabo en un viñedo comercial de Bodegas Licinia, en la Comunidad de Madrid, durante los años 2010 y 2011. La variedad estudiada fue Cabernet sauvignon / 41 B, plantada a un marco de plantación de 3 m x 1 m, con un guiado vertical de la vegetación. El dispositivo experimental fue totalmente al azar, y se establecieron 4 tratamientos experimentales con 4 grados de disponibilidad hídrica, déficit moderado continuo (T0,45-0,6), déficit severo continuo (T0-0,3), déficit severo después de envero (T0,45-0,3) y déficit severo antes de envero (T0-0,6). En cada tratamiento se distribuyeron 3 repeticiones. El año 2010 fue el más lluvioso de los años de ensayo, con 478 mm de precipitaciones anuales, lo que supuso 146 mm más que en el año 2011. Su distribución a lo largo del ciclo fue más homogénea en el año 2010, mientras que en 2011 las precipitaciones contabilizadas en el período de maduración de la uva fueron nulas. La temperatura media subió 0,9ºC en 2011, respecto a 2010 y en cuanto a la integral térmica eficaz, en 2011 se acumularon, desde el 1 de abril hasta el final de ciclo, 217 grados•día más que en 2010. El déficit hídrico en pre-envero, modificó notablemente el crecimiento vegetativo y la producción de cosecha de la parcela de ensayo, no así la fertilidad de las yemas. El tratamiento con mayor disponibilidad hídrica (T0,45-0,6) obtuvo el mayor peso de baya, y los tratamientos con menor déficit hídrico en pre-envero (T0,45-0,6 y T0,45-0,3) registraron los mayores rendimientos de cosecha, mientras que las menores tasas de cuajado correspondieron al tratamiento con un déficit severo continuo (T0-0,3). La parcela de ensayo se caracterizó por un exceso de vigor y un alto crecimiento vegetativo. El pH del mosto se vio afectado por el déficit hídrico, disminuyendo su valor en el tratamiento de déficit hídrico severo antes de envero (T0-0,6). Organolépticamente, no se percibieron diferencias significativas en los vinos elaborados en función del déficit hídrico, y respecto a su composición físico-química, solo existieron diferencias en la concentración de ácido L-Málico, con mayores concentraciones en los tratamientos sin déficit hídrico en pre-envero, T0,45-0,6 y T0,45-0,3. El déficit hídrico modificó notablemente el color del vino, aumentando los valores de las coordenadas CIELAB a* y b*, la luminosidad (L*), croma (C*) y tonalidad (H*), para los tratamientos con un déficit severo en pre-envero (T0-0,3 y T0-0,6) y disminuyendo estas en el tratamiento con mayor disponibilidad hídrica (T0,45-0,6). Del mismo modo, mediante el análisis de color por métodos tradicionales, IPT e IC de los vinos, aumentó en los tratamientos con mayor déficit hídrico en pre-envero (T0-0,3 y T0-0,6), respecto a los tratamientos de mayor disponibilidad (T0,45-0,6 y T0,45-0,3). La concentración de taninos de la baya en vendimia, no se vio afectada por el déficit hídrico, aunque sí estuvo relacionada positivamente con el tamaño de las bayas. Organolépticamente, los hollejos del año 2011 resultaron con menor frescura, acidez, afrutado, sensación herbácea e intensidad tánica, aunque con mayor astringencia respecto a 2010. Las pepitas fueron más astringentes y aromáticas pero menos crujientes, sin llegar a los niveles de madurez del año 2010. El catador relacionó los taninos con la calidad del vino, asociándolos con un mayor cuerpo, acidez, intensidad, equilibrio gustativo, amargor y menor astringencia en la fase gustativa. La concentración de taninos en los vinos se vio favorecida con el déficit hídrico en pre-envero y post-envero. Los tratamientos con mayor déficit hídrico en pre-envero, T0-0,6 y T0-0,3, obtuvieron las menores concentraciones de potasio en mostos y vinos. Las relaciones entre la concentración de potasio, ácido L-Málico y el porcentaje de color rojo puro (dA(%)) resultaron altamente significativas, de modo que las mayores tasas de potasio en el vino se asociaron a los valores más bajos de color rojo y a los mayores de ácido L-Málico. ABSTRACT The present Doctoral Thesis has been done in order to estimate the grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) agronomic and physiologic performance or response as well as the impact in the grape and wine maturity, composition and quality evolution, with different water deficits. The variation in climate that the global warming studies for seen is a key factor for the grapevine water use efficiency. In warm areas the farming vineyards strategy to face the climatic change, should be focused on diminish the effects on the grapevine growth and development, so that the water deficit detailed analysis becomes decisive to obtain the appropriate grapes, that are the main subject for a successful wine production and especially for top quality wines. The trial was carried out in a commercial vineyard in Chinchón (Madrid), Licinia winery, during the 2010 and 2011 seasons. The grape variety studied was Cabernet Sauvignon grafted onto 41B with a vine spacing 3m x 1m trained as VSP. Experimental design consisted on 4 irrigation treatments with 3 replications totally randomized. Irrigation treatments were: moderate regulated deficit (T0,45-0,6), severe continuous deficit (T0-0,3), severe post-veraison deficit (T0,45-0,3) and severe pre veraison deficit (T0-0,6). The 2010 was rainier year than the 2011; Total annual rain in 2010 was 478 mm, which resulted in 146 mm more than in 2011. The distribution along the vine cycle was more homogeneous in the 2010, whereas precipitations in 2011 along the grape maturity period were nonexistent. The average temperature in 2011 was 0,9ºC higher than that of the 2010 and regarding to the thermal integral, in the 2011 from 1st April to the end of the growing cycle, was 217 degrees•day higher than that in 2010. Water deficit significantly modified the vegetative growth and yield but, it did not modified bud fertility. The treatment with the highest water availability (T0,45-0,6) got the highest berry size, the lowest berry set rates were found in the severe continuous deficit treatment (T0-0,3). The plot studied in this trial was characterized by both excessive vigour and vegetative growth. Water deficit modified the pH must by, reducing it in the severe water deficit during pre-veraison (T0-0,6). There were not differences in wine tasting between the water deficits treatments. Regarding to the physical-chemical composition, it only existed differences in the L-malic acid concentration, resulting higher concentrations in the water deficit pre-veraison treatments: T0,45-0,6 y T0,45-0,3. Water deficit significantly modified wine colour by, increasing the CIELAB coordinates a* and b*, the brightness (L*), croma (C*) and tonality (H*), in the lower water availability pre-veraison treatments (T0-0,3 y T0-0,6), and reducing them in the in the moderate continuous water deficit ones (T0,45-0,6). By means of traditional wine colour parameters analyses, red colour percentage, TPI, they became higher in the lower water availability pre-veraison treatments (T0-0,3 y T0-0,6), than in those with higher availability (T0,45-0,6 y T0,45-0,3). At harvest, berry tannins concentrations was not affected by the water deficit although it did in a positive way, in the berry size. Berry tasting in 2011, resulted in a lower freshness, acidity, fruity, herbaceous flavour and tannic intensity, but with higher astringency respect to the 2010 season. Seeds, in 2011, were more astringent and aromatic as in the 2010, but less crunchy, without getting to the point of maturity. The taster linked the tannins to wine quality, associating them with a higher bodiest wine, acidity, intensity, taste balance, bitterness and with a lower astringency in the tasting stage. Treatments with a higher water deficit up to veraison T0-0,6 y T0-0,3 got less musts and wines potassium concentration. The relation between L-malic acid and the full red color percentage (dA(%)), were highly related, resulting the higher potassium content the lower wine quality.

Evaluación de la contribución y el impacto de las tecnologías del habla en la detección automática del Síndrome de la Apnea Obstructiva del Sueño = Contributions and impact assessment of speech technologies on the automatic detection of severe Obstructive Sleep Apnea syndrome

La presente Tesis analiza las posibilidades que ofrecen en la actualidad las tecnologías del habla para la detección de patologías clínicas asociadas a la vía aérea superior. El estudio del habla que tradicionalmente cubre tanto la producción como el proceso de transformación del mensaje y las señales involucradas, desde el emisor hasta alcanzar al receptor, ofrece una vía de estudio alternativa para estas patologías. El hecho de que la señal emitida no solo contiene este mensaje, sino también información acerca del locutor, ha motivado el desarrollo de sistemas orientados a la identificación y verificación de la identidad de los locutores. Estos trabajos han recibido recientemente un nuevo impulso, orientándose tanto hacia la caracterización de rasgos que son comunes a varios locutores, como a las diferencias existentes entre grabaciones de un mismo locutor. Los primeros resultan especialmente relevantes para esta Tesis dado que estos rasgos podrían evidenciar la presencia de características relacionadas con una cierta condición común a varios locutores, independiente de su identidad. Tal es el caso que se enfrenta en esta Tesis, donde los rasgos identificados se relacionarían con una de la patología particular y directamente vinculada con el sistema de físico de conformación del habla. El caso del Síndrome de Apneas Hipopneas durante el Sueno (SAHS) resulta paradigmático. Se trata de una patología con una elevada prevalencia mundo, que aumenta con la edad. Los pacientes de esta patología experimentan episodios de cese involuntario de la respiración durante el sueño, que se prolongan durante varios segundos y que se reproducen a lo largo de la noche impidiendo el correcto descanso. En el caso de la apnea obstructiva, estos episodios se deben a la imposibilidad de mantener un camino abierto a través de la vía aérea, de forma que el flujo de aire se ve interrumpido. En la actualidad, el diagnostico de estos pacientes se realiza a través de un estudio polisomnográfico, que se centra en el análisis de los episodios de apnea durante el sueño, requiriendo que el paciente permanezca en el hospital durante una noche. La complejidad y el elevado coste de estos procedimientos, unidos a las crecientes listas de espera, han evidenciado la necesidad de contar con técnicas rápidas de detección, que si bien podrían no obtener tasas tan elevadas, permitirían reorganizar las listas de espera en función del grado de severidad de la patología en cada paciente. Entre otros, los sistemas de diagnostico por imagen, así como la caracterización antropométrica de los pacientes, han evidenciado la existencia de patrones anatómicos que tendrían influencia directa sobre el habla. Los trabajos dedicados al estudio del SAHS en lo relativo a como esta afecta al habla han sido escasos y algunos de ellos incluso contradictorios. Sin embargo, desde finales de la década de 1980 se conoce la existencia de patrones específicos relativos a la articulación, la fonación y la resonancia. Sin embargo, su descripción resultaba difícilmente aprovechable a través de un sistema de reconocimiento automático, pero apuntaba la existencia de un nexo entre voz y SAHS. En los últimos anos las técnicas de procesado automático han permitido el desarrollo de sistemas automáticos que ya son capaces de identificar diferencias significativas en el habla de los pacientes del SAHS, y que los distinguen de los locutores sanos. Por contra, poco se conoce acerca de la conexión entre estos nuevos resultados, los sé que habían obtenido en el pasado y la patogénesis del SAHS. Esta Tesis continua la labor desarrollada en este ámbito considerando específicamente: el estudio de la forma en que el SAHS afecta el habla de los pacientes, la mejora en las tasas de clasificación automática y la combinación de la información obtenida con los predictores utilizados por los especialistas clínicos en sus evaluaciones preliminares. Las dos primeras tareas plantean problemas simbióticos, pero diferentes. Mientras el estudio de la conexión entre el SAHS y el habla requiere de modelos acotados que puedan ser interpretados con facilidad, los sistemas de reconocimiento se sirven de un elevado número de dimensiones para la caracterización y posterior identificación de patrones. Así, la primera tarea debe permitirnos avanzar en la segunda, al igual que la incorporación de los predictores utilizados por los especialistas clínicos. La Tesis aborda el estudio tanto del habla continua como del habla sostenida, con el fin de aprovechar las sinergias y diferencias existentes entre ambas. En el análisis del habla continua se tomo como punto de partida un esquema que ya fue evaluado con anterioridad, y sobre el cual se ha tratado la evaluación y optimización de la representación del habla, así como la caracterización de los patrones específicos asociados al SAHS. Ello ha evidenciado la conexión entre el SAHS y los elementos fundamentales de la señal de voz: los formantes. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que el éxito de estos sistemas se debe, fundamentalmente, a la capacidad de estas representaciones para describir dichas componentes, obviando las dimensiones ruidosas o con poca capacidad discriminativa. El esquema resultante ofrece una tasa de error por debajo del 18%, sirviéndose de clasificadores notablemente menos complejos que los descritos en el estado del arte y de una única grabación de voz de corta duración. En relación a la conexión entre el SAHS y los patrones observados, fue necesario considerar las diferencias inter- e intra-grupo, centrándonos en la articulación característica del locutor, sustituyendo los complejos modelos de clasificación por el estudio de los promedios espectrales. El resultado apunta con claridad hacia ciertas regiones del eje de frecuencias, sugiriendo la existencia de un estrechamiento sistemático en la sección del tracto en la región de la orofaringe, ya prevista en la patogénesis de este síndrome. En cuanto al habla sostenida, se han reproducido los estudios realizados sobre el habla continua en grabaciones de la vocal /a/ sostenida. Los resultados son cualitativamente análogos a los anteriores, si bien en este caso las tasas de clasificación resultan ser más bajas. Con el objetivo de identificar el sentido de este resultado se reprodujo el estudio de los promedios espectrales y de la variabilidad inter e intra-grupo. Ambos estudios mostraron importantes diferencias con los anteriores que podrían explicar estos resultados. Sin embargo, el habla sostenida ofrece otras oportunidades al establecer un entorno controlado para el estudio de la fonación, que también había sido identificada como una fuente de información para la detección del SAHS. De su estudio se pudo observar que, en el conjunto de datos disponibles, no existen variaciones que pudieran asociarse fácilmente con la fonación. Únicamente aquellas dimensiones que describen la distribución de energía a lo largo del eje de frecuencia evidenciaron diferencias significativas, apuntando, una vez más, en la dirección de las resonancias espectrales. Analizados los resultados anteriores, la Tesis afronta la fusión de ambas fuentes de información en un único sistema de clasificación. Con ello es posible mejorar las tasas de clasificación, bajo la hipótesis de que la información presente en el habla continua y el habla sostenida es fundamentalmente distinta. Esta tarea se realizo a través de un sencillo esquema de fusión que obtuvo un 88.6% de aciertos en clasificación (tasa de error del 11.4%), lo que representa una mejora significativa respecto al estado del arte. Finalmente, la combinación de este clasificador con los predictores utilizados por los especialistas clínicos ofreció una tasa del 91.3% (tasa de error de 8.7%), que se encuentra dentro del margen ofrecido por esquemas más costosos e intrusivos, y que a diferencia del propuesto, no pueden ser utilizados en la evaluación previa de los pacientes. Con todo, la Tesis ofrece una visión clara sobre la relación entre el SAHS y el habla, evidenciando el grado de madurez alcanzado por la tecnología del habla en la caracterización y detección del SAHS, poniendo de manifiesto que su uso para la evaluación de los pacientes ya sería posible, y dejando la puerta abierta a futuras investigaciones que continúen el trabajo aquí iniciado. ABSTRACT This Thesis explores the potential of speech technologies for the detection of clinical disorders connected to the upper airway. The study of speech traditionally covers both the production process and post processing of the signals involved, from the speaker up to the listener, offering an alternative path to study these pathologies. The fact that utterances embed not just the encoded message but also information about the speaker, has motivated the development of automatic systems oriented to the identification and verificaton the speaker’s identity. These have recently been boosted and reoriented either towards the characterization of traits that are common to several speakers, or to the differences between records of the same speaker collected under different conditions. The first are particularly relevant to this Thesis as these patterns could reveal the presence of features that are related to a common condition shared among different speakers, regardless of their identity. Such is the case faced in this Thesis, where the traits identified would relate to a particular pathology, directly connected to the speech production system. The Obstructive Sleep Apnea syndrome (OSA) is a paradigmatic case for analysis. It is a disorder with high prevalence among adults and affecting a larger number of them as they grow older. Patients suffering from this disorder experience episodes of involuntary cessation of breath during sleep that may last a few seconds and reproduce throughout the night, preventing proper rest. In the case of obstructive apnea, these episodes are related to the collapse of the pharynx, which interrupts the air flow. Currently, OSA diagnosis is done through a polysomnographic study, which focuses on the analysis of apnea episodes during sleep, requiring the patient to stay at the hospital for the whole night. The complexity and high cost of the procedures involved, combined with the waiting lists, have evidenced the need for screening techniques, which perhaps would not achieve outstanding performance rates but would allow clinicians to reorganize these lists ranking patients according to the severity of their condition. Among others, imaging diagnosis and anthropometric characterization of patients have evidenced the existence of anatomical patterns related to OSA that have direct influence on speech. Contributions devoted to the study of how this disorder affects scpeech are scarce and somehow contradictory. However, since the late 1980s the existence of specific patterns related to articulation, phonation and resonance is known. By that time these descriptions were virtually useless when coming to the development of an automatic system, but pointed out the existence of a link between speech and OSA. In recent years automatic processing techniques have evolved and are now able to identify significant differences in the speech of OSAS patients when compared to records from healthy subjects. Nevertheless, little is known about the connection between these new results with those published in the past and the pathogenesis of the OSA syndrome. This Thesis is aimed to progress beyond the previous research done in this area by addressing: the study of how OSA affects patients’ speech, the enhancement of automatic OSA classification based on speech analysis, and its integration with the information embedded in the predictors generally used by clinicians in preliminary patients’ examination. The first two tasks, though may appear symbiotic at first, are quite different. While studying the connection between speech and OSA requires simple narrow models that can be easily interpreted, classification requires larger models including a large number dimensions for the characterization and posterior identification of the observed patterns. Anyhow, it is clear that any progress made in the first task should allow us to improve our performance on the second one, and that the incorporation of the predictors used by clinicians shall contribute in this same direction. The Thesis considers both continuous and sustained speech analysis, to exploit the synergies and differences between them. On continuous speech analysis, a conventional speech processing scheme, designed and evaluated before this Thesis, was taken as a baseline. Over this initial system several alternative representations of the speech information were proposed, optimized and tested to select those more suitable for the characterization of OSA-specific patterns. Evidences were found on the existence of a connection between OSA and the fundamental constituents of the speech: the formants. Experimental results proved that the success of the proposed solution is well explained by the ability of speech representations to describe these specific OSA-related components, ignoring the noisy ones as well those presenting low discrimination capabilities. The resulting scheme obtained a 18% error rate, on a classification scheme significantly less complex than those described in the literature and operating on a single speech record. Regarding the connection between OSA and the observed patterns, it was necessary to consider inter-and intra-group differences for this analysis, and to focus on the articulation, replacing the complex classification models by the long-term average spectra. Results clearly point to certain regions on the frequency axis, suggesting the existence of a systematic narrowing in the vocal tract section at the oropharynx. This was already described in the pathogenesis of this syndrome. Regarding sustained speech, similar experiments as those conducted on continuous speech were reproduced on sustained phonations of vowel / a /. Results were qualitatively similar to the previous ones, though in this case perfomance rates were found to be noticeably lower. Trying to derive further knowledge from this result, experiments on the long-term average spectra and intraand inter-group variability ratios were also reproduced on sustained speech records. Results on both experiments showed significant differences from the previous ones obtained from continuous speech which could explain the differences observed on peformance. However, sustained speech also provided the opportunity to study phonation within the controlled framework it provides. This was also identified in the literature as a source of information for the detection of OSA. In this study it was found that, for the available dataset, no sistematic differences related to phonation could be found between the two groups of speakers. Only those dimensions which relate energy distribution along the frequency axis provided significant differences, pointing once again towards the direction of resonant components. Once classification schemes on both continuous and sustained speech were developed, the Thesis addressed their combination into a single classification system. Under the assumption that the information in continuous and sustained speech is fundamentally different, it should be possible to successfully merge the two of them. This was tested through a simple fusion scheme which obtained a 88.6% correct classification (11.4% error rate), which represents a significant improvement over the state of the art. Finally, the combination of this classifier with the variables used by clinicians obtained a 91.3% accuracy (8.7% error rate). This is within the range of alternative, but costly and intrusive schemes, which unlike the one proposed can not be used in the preliminary assessment of patients’ condition. In the end, this Thesis has shed new light on the underlying connection between OSA and speech, and evidenced the degree of maturity reached by speech technology on OSA characterization and detection, leaving the door open for future research which shall continue in the multiple directions that have been pointed out and left as future work.

Effect of type of dietary carbohydrates on digestion, intestinal barrier and growth performance in 25-d weaned rabbits

Los objetivos globales de esta tesis han sido estudiar el efecto que los carbohidratos de la dieta ejercen sobre los rendimientos productivos, la barrera intestinal, y la digestión de animales destetados a 25 días de edad. Además se ha estudiado cuál es el mejor periodo para determinar la digestibilidad fecal tras el destete a esta edad. En el primer experimento se estudió el efecto de la fibra neutro detergente soluble (FNDS) sobre la barrera intestinal, digestión, microbiota intestinal y rendimientos productivos de gazapos en gazapos en la fase post-destete. Se diseñaron tres piensos isonutritivos en los que la única fuente de variación fueron los niveles de fibra soluble. A partir de una dieta control (AH) con 103 g/kg de materia seca de FNDS y alfalfa como fuente principal de fibra, se sustituyó la mitad de esta alfalfa por una mezcla de pulpa de remolacha y pulpa de manzana (75:25) en el pienso B-AP y por una mezcla de cascarilla y concentrado de proteína de soja (88:12) en el pienso OH, obteniéndose 131 y 79 g/kg de FNDS sobre materia seca, respectivamente. Los conejos se destetaron a 25 días y fueron alimentados con los piensos experimentales hasta los 35 días de edad, momento en el que se sacrificaron para la determinación de la digestibilidad ileal aparente (DIA) de la materia seca (MS), proteína bruta (PB) y almidón, la morfología de la mucosa, y actividad enzimática en el yeyuno, el tejido linfoide asociado a la mucosa, así como la microbiota intestinal. Para la determinación de la morfología de la mucosa se utilizaron adicionalmente 19 animales lactantes de 35 días de edad. Para el estudio de la tasa de mortalidad, se utilizaron 118 animales más por tratamiento que recibieron los piensos experimentales durante las dos semanas post-destete y posteriormente un pienso comercial hasta los 60 días de edad. Los animales recibieron durante todo el experimento medicación en el agua de bebida (100 ppm de apramicina sulfato y 120 ppm de tilosina tartrato). El nivel de fibra soluble mejoró los parámetros que se utilizaron para la caracterización del estado de la barrera intestinal. Los conejos alimentados con el mayor nivel de FNDS en el pienso presentaron una mayor longitud de los villi (P=0.001), un mayor ratio longitud villi/profundidad de las criptas (8.14; P=0.001), una mayor actividad disacaridásica (8671 μmol de glucosa/g de proteína; P=0.019), así como una mayor digestibilidad ileal (96.8%; P=0.002), observándose una reducción en el flujo ileal de almidón a medida que se incrementó el nivel de fibra soluble en el pienso (1,2 vs 0,5 g/d; P=0.001). Los animales lactantes a 35 días de edad presentaron un ratio longitud de villi/profundidad de las criptas menor que el observado en aquéllos alimentados con el pienso B-AP (6.70), pero superior al de los piensos AH y OH. Niveles inferiores de NDFS tendieron (P=0.074) a incrementar la respuesta inmune de tipo celular (linfocitos CD8+). El pienso también afectó a la producción de IL2 (CD25+; P=0.029; CD5+CD25+; P=0.057), pero sin llegar a establecerse una clara relación con el nivel de fibra soluble. La diversidad de la microbiota intestinal no se vio afectada por el pienso (P ≥ 0.38). Los animales alimentados con las piensos B-AP y AH presentaron una reducción en la frecuencia de detección de Clostridium perfringens tanto en íleon (P=0.062) como en ciego (4.3 vs. 17.6%, P =0.047), comparado con el pienso OH. Además la tasa de mortalidad (118 gazapos/pienso) disminuyó de 14.4% en el pienso OH a 5.1% en el pienso B-AP. Entre los 32 y los 35 días de edad se determinó la digestibilidad fecal aparente (14/pienso) de la materia seca (MS), energía bruta (EB), proteína bruta (PB), fibra neutro detergente (FND), fibra ácido detergente (FAD) y almidón. Este grupo, junto con otros nueve animales por tratamiento se utilizaron para determinar el peso del estómago y el ciego, la concentración cecal de ácidos grasos volátiles (AGV) y amoniaco (NH3), así como las tasas de similitud de la microbiota intestinal. Además se estudiaron los rendimientos productivos (35 animales/tratamiento) de los gazapos durante todo el período de cebo, consumiendo los piensos experimentales desde el destete hasta los 35 días y posteriormente un pienso comercial hasta los 60 días de edad. Niveles crecientes de FNDS mejoraron la digestibilidad fecal de la materia seca (MS) y energía (P<0.001). La inclusión FNDS aumentó de manera lineal el peso del contenido cecal (P=0.001) y el peso del aparato digestivo completo (P=0.008), y en los días previos al sacrificio disminuyó de manera lineal el consumo medio diario (P=0.040). Se observó además, una disminución lineal (P≤0.041) del pH del estómago. No se encontró relación entre el pH, la concentración y proporciones molares de AGV y el nivel de FNDS. El pienso pareció tener un efecto, incluso superior al de la madre, sobre la tasa de similitud de la microbiota, y los efectos fueron mayores a nivel cecal que ileal. La eficacia alimenticia aumentó de manera lineal en un 12% entre piensos extremos tras el destete (25- 39d) y en un 3% en el período global de cebo con niveles mayores de NDFS. El consumo medio diario durante la fase post-destete y durante todo el período de cebo, tendió a aumen tar (P≤0.079) con niveles mayores de FNDS, sin embargo no se apreció efecto sobre la ganancia media diaria (P≥0.15). En conclusión, el incremento del nivel de fibra soluble en el pienso parece resultar beneficioso para la salud del animal ya que mejora la integridad de la mucosa, y reduce la frecuencia de detección de potenciales patógenos como C. perfringens y Campylobacter spp. Conforme a estos resultados, debería tenerse en cuenta el contenido en fibra soluble en la formulación de piensos de conejos en la fase post-destete. El objetivo del segundo experimento fue determinar el efecto de la fuente de almidón sobre la digestión, la microbiota intestinal y los rendimientos productivos en conejos destetados con 25 días de edad. Se formularon tres piensos isonutritivos en los que se modificaron las principales fuentes de almidón: trigo crudo, trigo cocido y una combinación de trigo y arroz cocido. Dos grupos de 99 y 193 animales se destetaron con 25 días de edad. El primero de ellos se utilizó para la determinación de los parámetros productivos conforme al mismo protocolo seguido en el experimento anterior. El segundo de los grupos se utilizó para la determinación de la digestibilidad fecal de 32 a 35 d, la digestibilidad ileal aparente (DIA) a 35 d, la morfología de la mucosa intestinal, los parámetros de fermentación cecal; así como, la caracterización de la microbiota intestinal. Se utilizaron además dos grupos adicionales de animales 384 (medicados) y 177 (no medicados) para estudiar el efecto de la suplementación con antibióticos en el agua de bebida sobre la mortalidad. El procesado térmico del trigo mejoró ligeramente la digestibilidad ileal del almidón (P=0.020) pero no modificó el flujo final de almidón que alcanzó el ciego, observándose una mayor frecuencia de detección de Campylobacter spp. y Ruminococcus spp. en ciego (P≤0.023), pero sin cambios a nivel ileal. El procesado térmico del trigo no afectó tampoco a los parámetros productivos, la mortalidad, la digestibilidad ileal y fecal o la morfología de la mucosa. La sustitución parcial del trigo cocido por arroz cocido, penalizó la digestibilidad ileal del almidón (P=0.020) e incrementó el flujo ileal de este nutriente al ciego (P=0.007). Sin embargo no afectó a la mortalidad, pese a que se detectaron cambios en la microbiota tanto a nivel ileal como cecal, disminuyendo la frecuencia de detección de Campylobacter spp. (en íleon y ciego), Helicobacter spp. (en íleon) y Ruminococcus spp (en ciego) e incrementando Bacteroides spp. (en ciego) (P≤0.046). El empleo de arroz cocido en las piensos post-destete no tuvieron efectos sobre los parámetros productivos, la mortalidad, la digestibilidad ileal y fecal a excepción del almidón, o la morfología de la mucosa. La suplementación con antibiótico redujo la fre cuencia de detección de la mayoría de las bacterias estudiadas (P≤0.048), sobre todo para Campylobacter spp., Clostridium perfringens y Propionibacterium spp. (P≤0.048), observándose un efecto mayor a nivel ileal que cecal, lo que se asoció a la bajada significativa (P<0.001) de la mortalidad. En conclusión, los resultados de este experimento indican que la fuente de almidón afecta a la microbiota intestinal pero no influiye sobre la salud del animal. En relación al procesado, el uso de trigo cocido junto con arroz cocido no mejora los resultados obtenidos con trigo duro, si bienserían necesarios más experimentos que confirmaran este punto. El último de los experimentos se centró en un aspecto metodológico. Dado que, los conejos destetados presentan un patrón digestivo diferente al de un animal adulto resultado de su inmadurez digestiva, el objetivo buscado era tratar de determinar el mejor procedimiento para la determinación de la digestibilidad fecal en los gazapos en la fase post-destete. Para tal fin se utilizaron 15 animales/tratamiento de tres camadas diferentes que se destetaron con 25 días, suministrándoles un pienso comercial de crecimiento-cebo. Se registró el consumo medio diario y la excreción diaria de heces desde el día 25 hasta el día 40 de edad para la determinación de la digestibilidad de la MS. La camada afectó al consumo medio diario y la excreción de heces (P=0.013 y 0.014, respectivamente), observándose una tendencia (P=0.061) en la digestibilidad. La edad afectó (P<0.001) a todos estos factores, incrementándose de manera más evidente la excreción que la ingestión de materia seca en la primera semana de vida, para aumentar de forma paralela a partir de la segunda. La correlación entre el consumo medio diario fue mayor con la excreción de heces del mismo día que con la del día siguiente, por lo que se utilizó el primero para la determinación de la digestibilidad de la MS (MSd). La MSd disminuyó de manera lineal hasta los 32 días de edad (2.17±0.25 unidades porcentuales por día), mientras que permaneció constante desde los 32 a los 40 días (69.4±0.47%). Por otro lado, la desviación estándar de la MSd se redujo cuando se incrementó el período de recogida de 2 a 6 días en un 54%. Conforme a los resultados obtenidos, se puede concluir que no es aconsejable comenzar las pruebas de digestibilidad antes de los 32 días de edad y que el número de animales necesario para detectar diferencias significativas entre tratamientos dependerá del período de recogida de heces. ABSTRACT The global aim of this thesis has been to study the effect of dietary carbohydrates on growth, performance, digestion and intestinal barrier in 25-d weaned rabbits. In addition there has also been studied which is the best period to determine the fecal digestibility after weaning. The first experiment focused on the effect of Neutral Detergent Soluble Fibre (NDSF) on gut barrier function, digestion, intestinal microbiota and growth performance n rabbits in the post-weaning period. Three isonutritive diets which only varied in the levels of soluble fiber were formulated such as it described as follows: a control diet (AH) containing 103 g of neutral detergent soluble fiber, including alfalfa as main source of fiber, was replaced by a mixture of beet and apple pulp (75-25) in the B-AP diet and, by a mix of oat hulls and soybean protein concentrate (88:12) in the OH diet, resulting 131 and 79 g of NDFS/kg of dry matter, respectively. Rabbits, weaned at 25 days of age, were fed the experimental diets up to 35 days of age, moment in which they were slaughtered for apparent ileal digestibility (AID) of dry matter (DM), crude protein (CP) and starch, mucosa morphology, sucrose activity, characterization of lamina propria lymphocytes and intestinal microbiota. To assess mucosal morphology, 19 suckling 35-d-old rabbits were also used. For mortality study, besides these animals, 118 additional rabbits per treatment were fed the experimental diets for two weeks period and thereafter received a commercial diet until 60 days of age. Rabbits were water medicated during the whole experimental period (100 ppm de apramicine sulphate and 120 ppm of tylosine tartrate). Level of soluble fiber improved all the parameters used for the characterization of the intestinal barrier condition. Villous height of the jejunal mucosa increased with dietary soluble fiber (P=0.001). Villous height of jejunal mucosa increased with dietary soluble fiber (P = 0.001). Rabbits fed the highest level of soluble fiber (BA-P diet) showed the highest villous height/crypth depth ratio (8.14; P = 0.001), sucrase specific activity (8671 μmol glucose/ g protein; P = 0.019), and the greatest ileal starch digestibility (96.8%; P = 0.002). The opposite effects were observed in rabbits fed decreased levels of soluble fiber (AH and OH diets; 4.70, 5,848 μmol of glucose/g of protein, as average, respectively). The lowest ileal starch digestibility was detected for animal fed OH diet (93.2%). Suckling rabbits of the same age showed a lower villous height/crypt depth ratio (6.70) compared with the B-AP diet group, but this ration was higher that the AH or OH diet groups. Lower levels of soluble fiber tended (P = 0.074) to increase the cellular immune response (CD8+ lymphocytes). Diet affected IL-2 production (CD25+, P = 0.029; CD5+CD25+, P = 0.057), with no clear relationship between soluble fiber and IL-2. The intestinal microbiota biodiversity was not affected by diets (P ≥ 0.38). Animals fed B-AP and AH diets had a reduced cecal frequency of detection compatible with Campylobacter spp. (20.3 vs. 37.8, P = 0.074), and Clostridium perfringens (4.3 vs. 17.6%, P = 0.047), compared with the OH diet group. Moreover, the mortality rates decreased from 14.4 (OH diet) to 5.1% (B-AP diet) with the increased presence of soluble fiber in the diet. Between 32 and 35 days of age, faecal apparent digestibility of dry matter (DM), gross energy (GE), crude protein (CP), neutral detergent fiber (NDF), acid detergent fiber (ADF) and starch was determined (14/diet). This group, plus another nine rabbits/diet were used to determine weight of stomach and caecum and their contents, cecal fermentation traits and similarity rate (SR) of intestinal microbiota. Besides, growth performance parameters (35 rabbits/diet) were studied during the whole fattening period, in animals consuming the experimental feed after the weaning up to 35 days of age and later on a commercial diet up animals reached 60 days of age. Increasing levels of Neutral Detergent Soluble Fiber improved faecal dry matter and energy digestibility (P<0.001). NDSF inclusion improved linearly weight of the caecal content (P=0.001) and the total gastrointestinal tract (P=0.008), and in the previous days to slaughter a linear decrease of daily feed intake in diet with highest level of soluble fiber was also observed. Stomach pH decreased linearly with increasing levels of NDFS (P≤0.041). No relation between NDSF level on pH, concentration and molar proportion of VFA was found. Treatments appeared to influence the similarity rate of microbiota, even higher to mother effect. These effects were higher in ileum than in caecum. A linear positive effect of feed efficiency was observed, which increased around 12% in the two weeks post-weaning (25-39d) and 3% in the whole fattening period between extreme diets with highest levels of soluble fiber. Average daily feed intake during the two weeks after weaning and in the whole fattening period, tended (P≤0.079) to increase with highest levels of NDSF; although there were no effect on daily weight gain (≥0.15). In conclusion, an increase of soluble fiber in the feed seems to be beneficial for animal health, due to improve mucose integrity and reduce detection frequency of those poten tial pathogens like C. perfringens and Campylobacter spp. According to these results, level of soluble fiber should be taking care in feed rabbit formulation in the post-weaning period. The objective of the second experiment was to determine the effect of source of starch on digestion, intestinal microbiota and growth performance in twenty-five-day old weaned rabbits. To accomplish with this aim three iso-nutritive diets were formulated with different source of starch: raw wheat, boiled wheat and a combination of boiled wheat and boiled rice. Two groups of 99 and 193 rabbits were weaned at 25 days of age. The first group was used for growth performance determination following the same protocol than in previous experiment. The second group was used to determine faecal digestibility from 32 to 35 d, apparent ileal digestibility (AID) at 35 d, jejunal mucosa morphology, caecal fermentation traits and characterization of intestinal microbiota. For mortality, two additional groups of 384 (medicated) and 177 (not medicated) were used in order to study the effect of antibiotic water supply supplementation. Heat processing of starch slightly improved ileal digestibility of starch (P=0.020) but did not modify the flow of starch to the caecum. An increase in frequency of detection of Campylobacter spp. y Ruminococcus spp. was observed in the caecum (P≤0.023), with no changes at ileal level. Heat processing of wheat did not modify growth performance, mortality, ileal or faecal digestibility and mucosa morphology. Partial substitution of boiled wheat for boiled rice in the diet impaired ileal starch digestibility (P=0.020) and increased the ileal flow of this nutrient to the caecum (P=0.007). However, it did not affect mortality rate, although changes in the ileal and caecal intestinal microbiota were detected, decreasing the frequency of detection of Campylobacter spp. (both ileum and caecum), Helicobacter spp. (at ileum) and Ruminococcus spp (at caecum) and increasing the Bacteroides spp. (at caecum) (P≤0.046). The effect of boiled rice supplementation did not alter growth performance, mortality, ileal or faecal digestibility of other nutrients than starch, and mucosa morphology. Medication of rabbits reduced the ileal frequency of detection of most bacteria studied (P≤0.048), especially for Campylobacter spp., Clostridium perfringens y Propionibacterium spp. (P≤0.048), resulting the effect higher at ileal than caecal level and relating it with a strong reduction of mortality rate (P<0.001). In conclusion, the results of this experiment make think that the source of starch affects the intestinal microbiota but they do not seem to influence animal health. In relation to the effect of heat processed the use of cooked wheat or cooked rice it does not seem to im prove the results obtained with hard wheat, but there would be necessary more experiments that were confirming this point. The last experiment focused on a methodological aspect. Considering that, weaned rabbits have a different digestive pattern than older animals due to their digestive immaturity; the fixed objective was to determine the best procedure for faecal digestibility determination in young rabbits in the post-weaning period. Fifteen rabbits from 5 different litters were weaned at 25 days of age and fed with a commercial feed. Feed intake and faeces excretion were recorded daily from 25 to 40 days of age for dry matter digestibility (DMd) determination. Litter affected daily DM intake and excretion (P=0.013 y 0.014, respectively) and tended to affect DMd (P=0.061). Age affected all these factors (P<0.001), but ingestion increased slowly than dry matter excretion during the first week buth they evolved similarly in the second week. The correlation between daily feed intakes was higher with the faeces excretion of the day than with faeces excretion of the next day, and the first values were used to determine daily DMd. The DMd decreased linearly from weaning to 32 d of age (2.17±0.25 percentage units per day), whereas from 32 to 40 d remained constant (69.4±0.47%). On the other hand, average standard deviation of DMd decreased by 54% when the length of collection period increased from 2 to 6d. Consequently to the obtained results, it could be concluded that it would not be advisable to start digestibility trials before the 32 days of age and that the number of animals required to detect a significant difference among means would depend on the collection period.

Analysis of Proseds bare-tether performance

NASA's tether experiment ProSEDS will be placed in orbit on board a Delta-II rocket in early 2003. ProSEDS will test bare-tether electron collection, deorbiting of the rocket second stage, and the system dynamic stability. ProSEDS performance will vary both because ambient conditions change along the orbit and because tether-circuit parameters follow a step by step sequence in the current operating cycle. In this work we discuss how measurements of tether current and bias, plasma density, and deorbiting rate can be used to check the OML law for current collection. We review circuit bulk elements; characteristic lengths and energies that determine collection (tether radius, electron thermal gyroradius and Debye length, particle temperatures, tether bias, ion ram energy); and lengths determining current and bias profiles along the tether (extent of magnetic self-field, a length gauging ohmic versus collection impedances, tether length). The analysis serves the purpose of estimating ProSEDS behavior in orbit and fostering our ability for extrapolating ProSEDS flight data to different tether and environmental conditions.

Energy Storage Systems for Electric Vehicles: Performance Comparison based on a Simple Equivalent Circuit and Experimental Tests

The decision to select the most suitable type of energy storage system for an electric vehicle is always difficult, since many conditionings must be taken into account. Sometimes, this study can be made by means of complex mathematical models which represent the behavior of a battery, ultracapacitor or some other devices. However, these models are usually too dependent on parameters that are not easily available, which usually results in nonrealistic results. Besides, the more accurate the model, the more specific it needs to be, which becomes an issue when comparing systems of different nature. This paper proposes a practical methodology to compare different energy storage technologies. This is done by means of a linear approach of an equivalent circuit based on laboratory tests. Via these tests, the internal resistance and the self-discharge rate are evaluated, making it possible to compare different energy storage systems regardless their technology. Rather simple testing equipment is sufficient to give a comparative idea of the differences between each system, concerning issues such as efficiency, heating and self-discharge, when operating under a certain scenario. The proposed methodology is applied to four energy storage systems of different nature for the sake of illustration.

Development of an Elevated Temperature Loop Heat Pipe for Space Applications and Investigation of Non Condensable Gas Impact on its Performance

Un caloducto en bucle cerrado o Loop Heat Pipe (LHP) es un dispositivo de transferencia de calor cuyo principio de operación se basa en la evaporación/condensación de un fluido de trabajo, que es bombeado a través de un circuito cerrado gracias a fuerzas de capilaridad. Gracias a su flexibilidad, su baja masa y su mínimo (incluso nulo) consumo de potencia, su principal aplicación ha sido identificada como parte del subsistema de control térmico de vehículos espaciales. En el presente trabajo se ha desarrollado un LHP capaz de funcionar eficientemente a temperaturas de hasta 125 oC, siguiendo la actual tendencia de los equipos a bordo de satélites de incrementar su temperatura de operación. En la selección del diseño optimo para dicho LHP, la compatibilidad entre materiales y fluido de trabajo se identificó como uno de los puntos clave. Para seleccionar la mejor combinación, se llevó a cabo una exhaustiva revisión del estado del arte, además de un estudio especifico que incluía el desarrollo de un banco de ensayos de compatibilidad. Como conclusión, la combinación seleccionada como la candidata idónea para ser integrada en el LHP capaz de operar hasta 125 oC fue un evaporador de acero inoxidable, líneas de titanio y amoniaco como fluido de trabajo. En esa línea se diseñó y fabricó un prototipo para ensayos y se desarrolló un modelo de simulación con EcosimPro para evaluar sus prestaciones. Se concluyó que el diseño era adecuado para el rango de operación definido. La incompatibilidad entre el fluido de trabajo y los materiales del LHP está ligada a la generación de gases no condensables. Para un estudio más detallado de los efectos de dichos gases en el funcionamiento del LHP se analizó su comportamiento con diferentes cantidades de nitrógeno inyectadas en su cámara de compensación, simulando un gas no condensable formado en el interior del dispositivo. El estudio se basó en el análisis de las temperaturas medidas experimentalmente a distintos niveles de potencia y temperatura de sumidero o fuente fría. Adicionalmente, dichos resultados se compararon con las predicciones obtenidas por medio del modelo en EcosimPro. Las principales conclusiones obtenidas fueron dos. La primera indica que una cantidad de gas no condensable más de dos veces mayor que la cantidad generada al final de la vida de un satélite típico de telecomunicaciones (15 años) tiene efectos casi despreciables en el funcionamiento del LHP. La segunda es que el principal efecto del gas no condensable es una disminución de la conductancia térmica, especialmente a bajas potencias y temperaturas de sumidero. El efecto es más significativo cuanto mayor es la cantidad de gas añadida. Asimismo, durante la campaña de ensayos se observó un fenómeno no esperado para grandes cantidades de gas no condensable. Dicho fenómeno consiste en un comportamiento oscilatorio, detectado tanto en los ensayos como en la simulación. Este efecto es susceptible de una investigación más profunda y los resultados obtenidos pueden constituir la base para dicha tarea. ABSTRACT Loop Heat Pipes (LHPs) are heat transfer devices whose operating principle is based on the evaporation/condensation of a working fluid, and which use capillary pumping forces to ensure the fluid circulation. Thanks to their flexibility, low mass and minimum (even null) power consumption, their main application has been identified as part of the thermal control subsystem in spacecraft. In the present work, an LHP able to operate efficiently up to 125 oC has been developed, which is in line with the current tendency of satellite on-board equipment to increase their operating temperatures. In selecting the optimal LHP design for the elevated temperature application, the compatibility between the materials and working fluid has been identified as one of the main drivers. An extensive literature review and a dedicated trade-off were performed, in order to select the optimal combination of fluids and materials for the LHP. The trade-off included the development of a dedicated compatibility test stand. In conclusion, the combination of stainless steel evaporator, titanium piping and ammonia as working fluid was selected as the best candidate to operate up to 125 oC. An LHP prototype was designed and manufactured and a simulation model in EcosimPro was developed to evaluate its performance. The first conclusion was that the defined LHP was suitable for the defined operational range. Incompatibility between the working fluid and LHP materials is linked to Non Condensable Gas (NCG) generation. Therefore, the behaviour of the LHP developed with different amounts of nitrogen injected in its compensation chamber to simulate NCG generation, was analyzed. The LHP performance was studied by analysis of the test results at different temperatures and power levels. The test results were also compared to simulations in EcosimPro. Two additional conclusions can be drawn: (i) the effects of an amount of more than two times the expected NCG at the end of life of a typical telecommunications satellite (15 years) is almost negligible on the LHP operation, and (ii) the main effect of the NCG is a decrease in the LHP thermal conductance, especially at low temperatures and low power levels. This decrease is more significant with the progressive addition of NCG. An unexpected phenomenon was observed in the LHP operation with large NCG amounts. Namely, an oscillatory behaviour, which was observed both in the tests and the simulation. This effect provides the basis for further studies concerning oscillations in LHPs.

Active learning and generic competences in an operating systems course

The Bologna Declaration and the implementation of the European Higher Education Area are promoting the use of active learning methodologies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects obtained after applying active learning methodologies to the achievement of generic competences as well as to the academic performance. This study has been carried out at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, where these methodologies have been applied to the Operating Systems I subject of the degree in Technical Engineering in Computer Systems. The fundamental hypothesis tested was whether the implementation of active learning methodologies (cooperative learning and problem based learning) favours the achievement of certain generic competences (‘teamwork’ and ‘planning and time management’) and also whether this fact improved the academic performance of our students. The original approach of this work consists in using psychometric tests to measure the degree of acquired student’s generic competences instead of using opinion surveys, as usual. Results indicated that active learning methodologies improve the academic performance when compared to the traditional lecture/discussion method, according to the success rate obtained. These methods seem to have as well an effect on the teamwork competence (the perception of the behaviour of the other members in the group) but not on the perception of each students’ behaviour. Active learning does not produce any significant change in the generic competence ‘planning and time management'.

Propuestas regulatorias para el diseño de un mercado ibérico a plazo eficiente de la energía = Regulatory proposals for the development of an efficient iberian energy forward market

El mercado ibérico de futuros de energía eléctrica gestionado por OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, con sede en Lisboa), también conocido como el mercado ibérico de derivados de energía, comenzó a funcionar el 3 de julio de 2006. Se analiza la eficiencia de este mercado organizado, por lo que se estudia la precisión con la que sus precios de futuros predicen el precio de contado. En dicho mercado coexisten dos modos de negociación: el mercado continuo (modo por defecto) y la contratación mediante subasta. En la negociación en continuo, las órdenes anónimas de compra y de venta interactúan de manera inmediata e individual con órdenes contrarias, dando lugar a operaciones con un número indeterminado de precios para cada contrato. En la negociación a través de subasta, un precio único de equilibrio maximiza el volumen negociado, liquidándose todas las operaciones a ese precio. Adicionalmente, los miembros negociadores de OMIP pueden liquidar operaciones “Over-The-Counter” (OTC) a través de la cámara de compensación de OMIP (OMIClear). Las cinco mayores empresas españolas de distribución de energía eléctrica tenían la obligación de comprar electricidad hasta julio de 2009 en subastas en OMIP, para cubrir parte de sus suministros regulados. De igual manera, el suministrador de último recurso portugués mantuvo tal obligación hasta julio de 2010. Los precios de equilibrio de esas subastas no han resultado óptimos a efectos retributivos de tales suministros regulados dado que dichos precios tienden a situarse ligeramente sesgados al alza. La prima de riesgo ex-post, definida como la diferencia entre los precios a plazo y de contado en el periodo de entrega, se emplea para medir su eficiencia de precio. El mercado de contado, gestionado por OMIE (“Operador de Mercado Ibérico de la Energía”, conocido tradicionalmente como “OMEL”), tiene su sede en Madrid. Durante los dos primeros años del mercado de futuros, la prima de riesgo media tiende a resultar positiva, al igual que en otros mercados europeos de energía eléctrica y gas natural. En ese periodo, la prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser negativa en los mercados de petróleo y carbón. Los mercados de energía tienden a mostrar niveles limitados de eficiencia de mercado. La eficiencia de precio del mercado de futuros aumenta con el desarrollo de otros mecanismos coexistentes dentro del mercado ibérico de electricidad (conocido como “MIBEL”) –es decir, el mercado dominante OTC, las subastas de centrales virtuales de generación conocidas en España como Emisiones Primarias de Energía, y las subastas para cubrir parte de los suministros de último recurso conocidas en España como subastas CESUR– y con una mayor integración de los mercados regionales europeos de energía eléctrica. Se construye un modelo de regresión para analizar la evolución de los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo durante sus cuatro primeros años como una función de doce indicadores potenciales de liquidez. Los únicos indicadores significativos son los volúmenes negociados en las subastas obligatorias gestionadas por OMIP, los volúmenes negociados en el mercado OTC y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear. El número de creadores de mercado, la incorporación de agentes financieros y compañías de generación pertenecientes a grupos integrados con suministradores de último recurso, y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear muestran una fuerte correlación con los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo. La liquidez de OMIP está aún lejos de los niveles alcanzados por los mercados europeos más maduros (localizados en los países nórdicos (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) y Alemania (EEX)). El operador de mercado y su cámara de compensación podrían desarrollar acciones eficientes de marketing para atraer nuevos agentes activos en el mercado de contado (p.ej. industrias consumidoras intensivas de energía, suministradores, pequeños productores, compañías energéticas internacionales y empresas de energías renovables) y agentes financieros, captar volúmenes del opaco OTC, y mejorar el funcionamiento de los productos existentes aún no líquidos. Resultaría de gran utilidad para tales acciones un diálogo activo con todos los agentes (participantes en el mercado, operador de mercado de contado, y autoridades supervisoras). Durante sus primeros cinco años y medio, el mercado continuo presenta un crecimento de liquidez estable. Se mide el desempeño de sus funciones de cobertura mediante la ratio de posición neta obtenida al dividir la posición abierta final de un contrato de derivados mensual entre su volumen acumulado en la cámara de compensación. Los futuros carga base muestran la ratio más baja debido a su buena liquidez. Los futuros carga punta muestran una mayor ratio al producirse su menor liquidez a través de contadas subastas fijadas por regulación portuguesa. Las permutas carga base liquidadas en la cámara de compensación ubicada en Madrid –MEFF Power, activa desde el 21 de marzo de 2011– muestran inicialmente valores altos debido a bajos volúmenes registrados, dado que esta cámara se emplea principalmente para vencimientos pequeños (diario y semanal). Dicha ratio puede ser una poderosa herramienta de supervisión para los reguladores energéticos cuando accedan a todas las transacciones de derivados en virtud del Reglamento Europeo sobre Integridad y Transparencia de los Mercados de Energía (“REMIT”), en vigor desde el 28 de diciembre de 2011. La prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser positiva en todos los mecanismos (futuros en OMIP, mercado OTC y subastas CESUR) y disminuye debido a la curvas de aprendizaje y al efecto, desde el año 2011, del precio fijo para la retribución de la generación con carbón autóctono. Se realiza una comparativa con los costes a plazo de generación con gas natural (diferencial “clean spark spread”) obtenido como la diferencia entre el precio del futuro eléctrico y el coste a plazo de generación con ciclo combinado internalizando los costes de emisión de CO2. Los futuros eléctricos tienen una elevada correlación con los precios de gas europeos. Los diferenciales de contratos con vencimiento inmediato tienden a ser positivos. Los mayores diferenciales se dan para los contratos mensuales, seguidos de los trimestrales y anuales. Los generadores eléctricos con gas pueden maximizar beneficios con contratos de menor vencimiento. Los informes de monitorización por el operador de mercado que proporcionan transparencia post-operacional, el acceso a datos OTC por el regulador energético, y la valoración del riesgo regulatorio pueden contribuir a ganancias de eficiencia. Estas recomendaciones son también válidas para un potencial mercado ibérico de futuros de gas, una vez que el hub ibérico de gas –actualmente en fase de diseño, con reuniones mensuales de los agentes desde enero de 2013 en el grupo de trabajo liderado por el regulador energético español– esté operativo. El hub ibérico de gas proporcionará transparencia al atraer más agentes y mejorar la competencia, incrementando su eficiencia, dado que en el mercado OTC actual no se revela precio alguno de gas. ABSTRACT The Iberian Power Futures Market, managed by OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, located in Lisbon), also known as the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market, started operations on 3 July 2006. The market efficiency, regarding how well the future price predicts the spot price, is analysed for this energy derivatives exchange. There are two trading modes coexisting within OMIP: the continuous market (default mode) and the call auction. In the continuous trading, anonymous buy and sell orders interact immediately and individually with opposite side orders, generating trades with an undetermined number of prices for each contract. In the call auction trading, a single price auction maximizes the traded volume, being all trades settled at the same price (equilibrium price). Additionally, OMIP trading members may settle Over-the-Counter (OTC) trades through OMIP clearing house (OMIClear). The five largest Spanish distribution companies have been obliged to purchase in auctions managed by OMIP until July 2009, in order to partly cover their portfolios of end users’ regulated supplies. Likewise, the Portuguese last resort supplier kept that obligation until July 2010. The auction equilibrium prices are not optimal for remuneration purposes of regulated supplies as such prices seem to be slightly upward biased. The ex-post forward risk premium, defined as the difference between the forward and spot prices in the delivery period, is used to measure its price efficiency. The spot market, managed by OMIE (Market Operator of the Iberian Energy Market, Spanish Pool, known traditionally as “OMEL”), is located in Madrid. During the first two years of the futures market, the average forward risk premium tends to be positive, as it occurs with other European power and natural gas markets. In that period, the ex-post forward risk premium tends to be negative in oil and coal markets. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. The price efficiency of the Iberian Power Futures Market improves with the market development of all the coexistent forward contracting mechanisms within the Iberian Electricity Market (known as “MIBEL”) – namely, the dominant OTC market, the Virtual Power Plant Auctions known in Spain as Energy Primary Emissions, and the auctions catering for part of the last resort supplies known in Spain as CESUR auctions – and with further integration of European Regional Electricity Markets. A regression model tracking the evolution of the traded volumes in the continuous market during its first four years is built as a function of twelve potential liquidity drivers. The only significant drivers are the traded volumes in OMIP compulsory auctions, the traded volumes in the OTC market, and the OTC cleared volumes by OMIClear. The amount of market makers, the enrolment of financial members and generation companies belonging to the integrated group of last resort suppliers, and the OTC cleared volume by OMIClear show strong correlation with the traded volumes in the continuous market. OMIP liquidity is still far from the levels reached by the most mature European markets (located in the Nordic countries (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) and Germany (EEX)). The market operator and its clearing house could develop efficient marketing actions to attract new entrants active in the spot market (e.g. energy intensive industries, suppliers, small producers, international energy companies and renewable generation companies) and financial agents as well as volumes from the opaque OTC market, and to improve the performance of existing illiquid products. An active dialogue with all the stakeholders (market participants, spot market operator, and supervisory authorities) will help to implement such actions. During its firs five and a half years, the continuous market shows steady liquidity growth. The hedging performance is measured through a net position ratio obtained from the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain – MEFF Power, operating since 21 March 2011, with a new denomination (BME Clearing) since 9 September 2013 – show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). The net position ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation on Energy Market Integrity and Transparency (“REMIT”), in force since 28 December 2011. The ex-post forward risk premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (OMIP futures, OTC market and CESUR auctions) and diminishes due to the learning curve and the effect – since year 2011 – of the fixed price retributing the indigenous coal fired generation. Comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”) – obtained as the difference between the power futures price and the forward generation cost with a gas fired combined cycle plant taking into account the CO2 emission rates – is also performed. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The clean spark spreads built with prompt contracts tend to be positive. The biggest clean spark spreads are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity. Market monitoring reports by the market operator providing post-trade transparency, OTC data access by the energy regulator, and assessment of the regulatory risk can contribute to efficiency gains. The same recommendations are also valid for a potential Iberian gas futures market, once an Iberian gas hub – currently in a design phase, with monthly meetings amongst the stakeholders in a Working Group led by the Spanish energy regulatory authority since January 2013 – is operating. The Iberian gas hub would bring transparency attracting more shippers and improving competition and thus its efficiency, as no gas price is currently disclosed in the existing OTC market.