Counting Crime: an explanation of falling crime rates

The current crime decrease is defying traditional criminological theories such as those espoused by Bonger (1916) who researched the relationship between crime and economic conditions and stated that when unemployment rises so does crime. In both the USA and the UK crime has dropped dramatically while unemployment has risen. Both the USA and the UK have been in a deep recession since 2008 but the crime rate has decreased dramatically in both countries. Over the past 20 years it has halved in England and Wales. So how do we explain this phenomenon? Crime is down across the West but more so in Britain (see Figure 1). In England and Wales crime has decreased by 8% in a single year (2013). Vandalism is down by 14% and burglaries and vehicle crime by 11%. The murder rate in the UK is at its lowest since 1978; in 2013, 540 people were killed. Some less serious offences are vanishing too; antisocial behaviour has fallen from just under 4million incidents in 2007-08 to 2.4million. (The Economist 20/4/13). According to the most recent annual results from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), crime is at its lowest level since the survey began in 1981; the most recent annual figures from the survey, Latest figures from the CSEW show there were an estimated 7.3 million incidents of crime against households and resident adults (aged 16 and over) in England and Wales for the year ending March 2014. This represents a 14% decrease compared with the previous year’s survey, and is the lowest estimate since the survey began in 1981.

Towards reliable data - counting the Finnish Open Access publications

Presentation at the CRIS2016 conference in St Andrews, June 10, 2016

Accurate Step Counting

Starting with an evaluator for a language, an abstract machine for the same language can be mechanically derived using successive program transformations. This has relevance to studying both the space and time properties of programs because these can be estimated by counting transitions of the abstract machine and measuring the size of the additional data structures needed, such as environments and stacks. In this article we use this process to derive a function that accurately counts the number of steps required to evaluate expressions in a simple language.

Analysis and modelling of immune cell behaviour in lymph nodes based on multi-photon imaging

This thesis presents quantitative studies of T cell and dendritic cell (DC) behaviour in mouse lymph nodes (LNs) in the naive state and following immunisation. These processes are of importance and interest in basic immunology, and better understanding could improve both diagnostic capacity and therapeutic manipulations, potentially helping in producing more effective vaccines or developing treatments for autoimmune diseases. The problem is also interesting conceptually as it is relevant to other fields where 3D movement of objects is tracked with a discrete scanning interval. A general immunology introduction is presented in chapter 1. In chapter 2, I apply quantitative methods to multi-photon imaging data to measure how T cells and DCs are spatially arranged in LNs. This has been previously studied to describe differences between the naive and immunised state and as an indicator of the magnitude of the immune response in LNs, but previous analyses have been generally descriptive. The quantitative analysis shows that some of the previous conclusions may have been premature. In chapter 3, I use Bayesian state-space models to test some hypotheses about the mode of T cell search for DCs. A two-state mode of movement where T cells can be classified as either interacting to a DC or freely migrating is supported over a model where T cells would home in on DCs at distance through for example the action of chemokines. In chapter 4, I study whether T cell migration is linked to the geometric structure of the fibroblast reticular network (FRC). I find support for the hypothesis that the movement is constrained to the fibroblast reticular cell (FRC) network over an alternative 'random walk with persistence time' model where cells would move randomly, with a short-term persistence driven by a hypothetical T cell intrinsic 'clock'. I also present unexpected results on the FRC network geometry. Finally, a quantitative method is presented for addressing some measurement biases inherent to multi-photon imaging. In all three chapters, novel findings are made, and the methods developed have the potential for further use to address important problems in the field. In chapter 5, I present a summary and synthesis of results from chapters 3-4 and a more speculative discussion of these results and potential future directions.

Validation of single photon absorptiometry for on-farm measurement of density and mineral content of tail bone in cattle

A validation study examined the accuracy of a purpose-built single photon absorptiometry (SPA) instrument for making on-farm in vivo measurements of bone mineral density (BMD) in tail bones of cattle. In vivo measurements were made at the proximal end of the ninth coccygeal vertebra (Cy9) in steers of two age groups (each n = 10) in adequate or low phosphorus status. The tails of the steers were then resected and the BMD of the Cy9 bone was measured in the laboratory with SPA on the resected tails and then with established laboratory procedures on defleshed bone. Specific gravity and ash density were measured on the isolated Cy9 vertebrae and on 5-mm2 dorso-ventral cores of bone cut from each defleshed Cy9. Calculated BMD determined by SPA required a measure of tail bone thickness and this was estimated as a fraction of total tail thickness. Actual tail bone thickness was also measured on the isolated Cy9 vertebrae. The accuracy of measurement of BMD by SPA was evaluated by comparison with the ash density of the bone cores measured in the laboratory. In vivo SPA measurements of BMD were closely correlated with laboratory measurements of core ash density (r = 0.92). Ash density and specific gravity of cores, and all SPA measures of BMD, were affected by phosphorus status of the steers, but the effect of steer age was only significant (P < 0.05) for steers in adequate phosphorus status. The accuracy of SPA to determine BMD of tail bone may be improved by reducing error associated with in vivo estimation of tail bone thickness, and also by adjusting for displacement of soft tissue by bone mineral. In conclusion a purpose-built SPA instrument could be used to make on-farm sequential non-invasive in vivo measurements of the BMD of tailbone in cattle with accuracy acceptable for many animal studies.

Doubly charged Higgs through photon-photon collisions in 3-3-1 models

We study the production and signatures of doubly charged Higgs bosons (DCHBs) in the process gamma gamma <-> H(--)H(++) at the e(-)e(+) International Linear Collider and CERN Linear Collider, where the intermediate photons are given by the Weizsacker-Willians and laser backscattering distributions.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFF-LINE RAINFLOW COUNTING ALGORITHM WITH TEMPORAL PARAMETERS AND DATA REDUCTION

Rainflow counting methods convert a complex load time history into a set of load reversals for use in fatigue damage modeling. Rainflow counting methods were originally developed to assess fatigue damage associated with mechanical cycling where creep of the material under load was not considered to be a significant contributor to failure. However, creep is a significant factor in some cyclic loading cases such as solder interconnects under temperature cycling. In this case, fatigue life models require the dwell time to account for stress relaxation and creep. This study develops a new version of the multi-parameter rainflow counting algorithm that provides a range-based dwell time estimation for use with time-dependent fatigue damage models. To show the applicability, the method is used to calculate the life of solder joints under a complex thermal cycling regime and is verified by experimental testing. An additional algorithm is developed in this study to provide data reduction in the results of the rainflow counting. This algorithm uses a damage model and a statistical test to determine which of the resultant cycles are statistically insignificant to a given confidence level. This makes the resulting data file to be smaller, and for a simplified load history to be reconstructed.

New indolium fluorofores for two-photon absortion (2PA) bioimaging applications

The development of organic materials with 2PA has attracted intensive attention in the past two decades [1]. In two-photon bio-imaging applications the design of the chromophore requires to have a good cross-section (σ2PA) and good biological compatibility which depends on the molecular volume and polarity [2]. In this work, we present the design, synthesis and characterization of new indolium derivatives. These compounds are easy to achieve with good yields and good photophysical properties. In addition, time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) has been carried out to investigate the energy level of the ground and excited state. Their spectral properties and assays performed on cultured cells, demonstrate the potential of these compounds as fluorescent probes with application in two-photon bio-imaging.

Proton Form Factor Puzzle and the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer(CLAS) Two-Photon Exchange Experiment

The electromagnetic form factors are the most fundamental observables that encode information about the internal structure of the nucleon. The electric ($G_{E}$) and the magnetic ($G_{M}$) form factors contain information about the spatial distribution of the charge and magnetization inside the nucleon. A significant discrepancy exists between the Rosenbluth and the polarization transfer measurements of the electromagnetic form factors of the proton. One possible explanation for the discrepancy is the contributions of two-photon exchange (TPE) effects. Theoretical calculations estimating the magnitude of the TPE effect are highly model dependent, and limited experimental evidence for such effects exists. Experimentally, the TPE effect can be measured by comparing the ratio of positron-proton elastic scattering cross section to that of the electron-proton $\large(R = \frac{\sigma (e^{+}p)}{\sigma (e^{-}p)}\large)$. The ratio $R$ was measured over a wide range of kinematics, utilizing a 5.6 GeV primary electron beam produced by the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. This dissertation explored dependence of $R$ on kinematic variables such as squared four-momentum transfer ($Q^{2}$) and the virtual photon polarization parameter ($\varepsilon$). A mixed electron-positron beam was produced from the primary electron beam in experimental Hall B. The mixed beam was scattered from a liquid hydrogen (LH$_{2}$) target. Both the scattered lepton and the recoil proton were detected by the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS). The elastic events were then identified by using elastic scattering kinematics. This work extracted the $Q^{2}$ dependence of $R$ at high $\varepsilon$ ($\varepsilon > $ 0.8) and the $\varepsilon$ dependence of $R$ at $\langle Q^{2} \rangle \approx 0.85$ GeV$^{2}$. In these kinematics, our data confirm the validity of the hadronic calculations of the TPE effect by Blunden, Melnitchouk, and Tjon. This hadronic TPE effect, with additional corrections contributed by higher excitations of the intermediate state nucleon, largely reconciles the Rosenbluth and the polarization transfer measurements of the electromagnetic form factors.

Large scale fabrication of nitrogen vacancy-embedded diamond nanostructures for single-photon source applications

Some color centers in diamond can serve as quantum bits which can be manipulated with microwave pulses and read out with laser, even at room temperature. However, the photon collection efficiency of bulk diamond is greatly reduced by refraction at the diamond/air interface. To address this issue, we fabricated arrays of diamond nanostructures, differing in both diameter and top end shape, with HSQ and Cr as the etching mask materials, aiming toward large scale fabrication of single-photon sources with enhanced collection efficiency made of nitrogen vacancy (NV) embedded diamond. With a mixture of O2 and CHF3 gas plasma, diamond pillars with diameters down to 45 nm were obtained. The top end shape evolution has been represented with a simple model. The tests of size dependent single-photon properties confirmed an improved single-photon collection efficiency enhancement, larger than tenfold, and a mild decrease of decoherence time with decreasing pillar diameter was observed as expected. These results provide useful information for future applications of nanostructured diamond as a single-photon source.